Week 14 flames: Hurts so good! Rookie QB could launch you to Round 2

Each week the Noise highlights under-started names who he believes are destined to torch the competition. To qualify, each player must be started in fewer than 60% of Yahoo! leagues. Speaking as an accountability advocate, I will post results, whether genius or moronic, the following week (Scoring thresholds – QB: 18 fantasy points, RB: 12 fantasy points, WR: 11 fantasy points: TE: 10 fantasy points; 0.5 PPR). If you’re a member of TEAM HUEVOS, reveal your Week 14 Flames on Twitter @NoisyHuevos.

Kirk Cousins, QB, Minnesota Vikings

(32% started in Yahoo; DK DFS: $6,200)
Matchup: at TB
Vegas line/Total: TB -6.5, 52.5

Banking on a low-volume QB, attached to an offense predicated on mowing down the competition on the legs of its elite running back, to advance you to the next round is, admittedly, a dice roll. Going on an international cruise in the midst of a raging pandemic, underlying medical conditions and all, probably packs less risk. However, as Cousins commented about possibly catching COVID-19 before the regular season began, presumably in an Ivan Drago voice, “If I die, I die.” That, my fellow fantasy fanatics, is the attitude we must exude in these harrowing one-and-done times. Putting your best foot forward and living with the consequences, whether positive or negative, is what the fantasy playoffs are all about. Take a chance on the Viking and you may take the next step toward residency in Title Town.

Eyeing the matchup, Cousins, unequivocally, will be the centerpiece of Gary Kubiak’s game plan. As witnessed in recent performances by the L.A. Rams and Kansas City, the Buccaneers and its impregnable front force the opposition to pass first, pass often. Cousins, who has surpassed 40 pass attempts in a game only once this season, will need to abandon conservatism and let ‘er rip. Since Week 8, without CB Jamel Dean for two of those matchups, Tampa has surrendered 7.5 pass yards per attempt, 304.8 pass yards per game, 2.8 passing TDs per game and the second-most fantasy points to signal callers. The Bucs have given up the 11th-fewest air yards per contest on the season, but it’s abundantly clear, the Vikes passer will lean heavily on his dynamic duo of Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson to attack a spiraling secondary.

Fearless forecast: 277 passing yards, 3 passing touchdowns, 0 turnovers, 11 rushing yards, 24.2 fantasy points

David Montgomery, RB, Chicago Bears

(57%; $6,500)
Matchup: vs. HOU
Vegas line/Total: HOU -1.5, 45.5

Glacially slow. Unathletic. Woefully mundane. For months, Twitter critics have hurled disparaging comments about my mancrush in an attempt to break my spirit and undermine confidence. Yes, #MandatoryMontgomery has often morphed into #MarginalMontgomery, but to the jackwagons who constantly chuck insult grenades on social media, “Step off, you scrooges!” In this merry month, Monty is going to deliver nothing but statistical gifts to good little fantasy girls and boys. The curtains may not match the carpet, but his underlying data denotes his vast improvement from Year 1 to Year 2. He currently slots at RB18 in YAC per attempt (‘20: 3.06; ‘19: 2.33) and ranks top-10 in missed tackle rate (‘20: 26.3%, ‘19: 20.6%). Whether you choose to accept it or not, he’s a quality three-down workhorse sadly trapped in an offensive desert. Give the man the credit he deserves.

This week, the must-start label is slapped on Montgomery. This is Houston, after all, a defense a one-legged LeGarrette Blount would trounce for a hundo and a touch. Arguably the worst gap-coverage unit in the NFL, the Texans have allowed an obscene 5.21 yards per carry, 185.7 total yards per game, 17 combined touchdowns and the second-most fantasy points to RBs. A whopping 14 rushers have scored at least 11 fantasy points against them this season in 0.5 PPR formats. With Mitchell Trubisky playing at a serviceable level and the Bears’ offensive line finally creating sizable holes, Monty should reach the century mark in yards from scrimmage for the third consecutive week. Play the man. It’s mandatory.

Fearless forecast: 17 carries, 75 rushing yards, 4 receptions, 26 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 18.1 fantasy points

D'Andre Swift, RB, Detroit Lions

(44 Yahoo start%; DK DFS: $6,500)
Matchup: vs. GB
Vegas line/Total: GB -7.5, 55.5

Concussions are frightening. Dislodgement to anyone’s brain can create long-lasting effects. It's a chilling repercussion of a game steeped in violence, a consequence recent medical studies continue to reveal new information about. Swift, sluggish still from an absorbed headshot almost a month ago, is a prime example of how impactful some traumatic brain injuries can be. Though he cleared protocol late last week, Adrian Peterson and the coaching staff’s observations of the rookie’s energy decline were alarming. As a result, he was understandably deactivated last Sunday in Chicago. Hopefully, with a few additional restful days, the youngster snaps back and resembles the TNT-packed rusher who detonated for 149 total yards and a score against Washington in Week 10.

If he resembles his prior self in practice this week, firing up Swift against the division riva- Packers is highly recommended. Green Bay is Velveeta in the trenches. This season, they’ve surrendered 4.59 yards per carry, 148.4 total yards per game, 16 combined scores and the third-most fantasy points to RBs. More promising for the Lion’s prospects, they’ve also given up 5.7 receptions and 50.1 receiving yards per game to the position. Swift, when operating at full capacity, is a sharpened knife who can easily slice through the spongy front. Again, monitor his progress in practice closely this week. If vibes are positive, a top-15 week is an inevitability. If he can’t go, Adrian Peterson and Kerryon Johnson enter into the RB2/flex conversation.

Fearless forecast: 13 carries, 54 rushing yards, 5 receptions, 28 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 16.7 fantasy points

Michael Pittman, WR, Indianapolis Colts

(28%; $5,000)
Matchup: at LV
Vegas line/Total: IND -2.5, 50.5

Philip Rivers, like yours truly, isn’t for everyone. His demonstrative behavior and overly loquacious on-field nature rub many people the wrong way, leading them to conclude he’s annoying. Regardless where you stand on the veteran QB, the wisdom he’s accumulated over the years is enormously valuable. To Pittman, he’s absorbed information from him like a sponge, which the receiver admits has greatly assisted in his handling of pressure. It’s that leadership combined with the youngster’s phenomenal skill set which explains his recent statistical surge. Pittman is a budding star who, since Week 9, ranks WR27 in 0.5 PPR formats, averaging 4.2 receptions and 59.4 receiving yards per game while scoring once. His 8.24 YAC/reception over that stretch ranks an impressive WR9. His intimidating size, route acumen and tacky hands are admirable qualities. Next draft season, he’s irrevocably in the WR3 conversation.

This week, he could take another sizable step in his breakout progression. In what will surely be a felonious rookie-on-rookie crime, Pittman should torch corner Damon Arnette, one of the friendliest DBs in the league. This season, he’s allowed an 80.0% catch percentage, 132.1 passer rating and 2.01 yards per snap to his assignments. As a whole, the Raiders have given up 7.1 pass yards per attempt and the 12th-most fantasy points to wide receivers. T.Y. Hilton has stolen the show the past couple weeks, but with a four-inch advantage over Arnette and a flourishing confidence, the young Colt should whinny, loudly, in Week 14.

Fearless forecast: 5 receptions, 63 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 14.8 fantasy points

Tee Higgins, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

(39%; $4,800)
Matchup: vs. DAL
Vegas line/Total: DAL -3, 45.5

When Joe Burrow’s knee buckled painfully, tearing his ACL and MCL three weeks ago against Washington, fantasy GMs with associated players promptly drifted to a dark place. The step down from the prized rookie passer to Brandon Allen was akin to trading in an exotic imported sports car for a lemony 1999 Ford Taurus. Talk about an undesirable exchange. However, the groove Allen and Higgins have carved out has defined lowered expectations. Targeted 12 times against the Giants and Dolphins, the rookie wideout grabbed 10 passes for 100 yards and one touchdown. In other words, the QB change hasn’t exactly been a driven coffin nail. However, if Allen is unavailable and Ryan Finley draws the start, ignore everything you just read.

This week, the Bengals welcome ‘Little D,’ a unit that has repeatedly jumped into a cold pool. Shrivelly in nature, Dallas has surrendered a welcoming 7.2 pass yards per attempt, 165.7 receiving yards per game, 21 total touchdowns, the 13th-most air yards per contest and the third-most fantasy points to WRs. Higgins’ primary tango partner, Anthony Brown, has given up a 128.3 passer rating and 1.57 yards per snap this season. Wrap all of the information into a box, place it under the tree, open it this Sunday and watch the points bring a smile to your face.

Fearless forecast (If Allen plays): 4 receptions, 61 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 14.1 fantasy points

Shocker special (under 10% started)

Denzel Mims, WR, New York Jets

(4%; $4,100)
Matchup: at SEA
Vegas line/Total: SEA -13.5, 47.5

Feckless. Slovenly. Pathetic. The Jets are subject matter for any comedian’s standup act. Completely defeated on the season, they are barreling toward NFL infamy, potentially becoming the sixth winless team in the league’s 101-year history. For its loyal fanbase, there aren’t enough available injectable anesthetics or adult beverages to help numb the pain. Still, with a plethora of future draft picks in their back pocket and a respectable nucleus at wide receiver, the Jets are a franchise capable of quickly getting out of the tailspin. Mims, an athletic freak with sensational field-stretch skills, is one major reason why. After soft tissue issues hampered his early season, he’s come on strong down the homestretch averaging 5.8 targets, 3.2 receptions and 54.0 yards per game, chipping in a terrific 16.7-yard average depth of target.

Seattle’s secondary remains on a historic pace for all-time ineptitude, but, with only one direction to go, it’s tightened the screws the past three weeks. Applying added pressure on the pocket has done wonders, as the ‘Hawks have yielded 6.1 pass yards per attempt, 224.3 pass yards per game and five total passing TDs since Week 10. Still, with Russell Wilson surely motivated to break out of his recent funk, odds are significant the Jets will again be scoreboard chasing, increasing the likelihood for Mims to accumulate scoring opportunities. (Editor's note: Mims reportedly could miss Sunday's game due to a family issue. If unavailable, consider Breshad Perriman or Jamison Crowder as "shocker" material.)

Fearless forecast: 4 receptions, 63 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 14.3 fantasy points

Bonus flames (under 60% started)

QB: Jalen Hurts, PHI (Line: NO -6.5; DK: $5,100) — Coastal Carolina may be the ultimate football underdog story of 2020, but if Hurts achieves Flames status, he could toss his hat in the ring. Doug Pederson, who stood unflinchingly by Carson Wentz’s side, finally stopped trying to make fetch happen, and for good reason. Absorbed sacks, countless turnovers and mindless mistakes — a change was necessary. Hurts, one of this wobbling imbecile’s favorite rookies in the 2020 draft class, is getting his long overdue shot to prove his mettle. He showed glimpses of what’s ahead last week in Green Bay, chewing up real estate various facets. His TD strike, a beautiful rollout chuck to Greg Ward, showcased his arm strength. Accurate at all levels in Oklahoma's Air Raid scheme last season and godlike on the ground (1,298 yards, 20 TDs), he has all the tools to incite pandemonium in Fantasyland. The man once squatted 570 pounds in college for heaven’s sake. New Orleans’ secondary has clamped down over the second half. On the season, the Saints have conceded 6.9 pass yards per attempt, 231.3 pass yards per game, 1.9 passing TDs per game and the third-fewest fantasy points to QBs. Hurts’ duality, though, is awfully enticing. If he starts, weigh his potential heavily. (FF: 256-2-2-48-0, 21.0 fantasy points)

RB: Ronald Jones, TB (Line: TB -6.5; DK: $6,100) — It took years, but Toto’s “Africa” and the entire Fleetwood Mac collection have really grown on me. The tracks are enrapturing, classics that never get skipped when streamed on Spotify. Feelings toward Jones are similar. Written off and doubted once Leonard Fournette entered the fold, I’ve completely bought into the nascent rusher. He’s an explosive playmaker, a running back who has busted often through initial contact (3.70 YAC/attempt, RB3) and shown measurable improvement as a dump-off receiver. Pre-bye Bruce Arians commented Jones “needs to have 20 touches” each week. If the head coach follows his own advice, his rusher is due for a monster game. Minnesota has sharpened their horned helmets on rush defense over the season’s second half. Over the past five weeks, the Vikes have allowed 4.69 yards per carry, but only 128.4 total yards per game and two ground TDs to rushers. Still, I’m banking on a healthy feeding. (FF: 16-70-1-2-9-0, 14.9 fantasy points)

RB: Jamaal Williams, GB (Line: GB -7.5; DK: $6,000) — A belly-dragging basset hound pulling an 18-wheeler loaded with pallets of PBR could steamroll Detroit’s highly penetrable front. They’re incredibly accommodating, a unit that has surrendered an almost unimaginable 4.59 yards per carry, 161.1 total yards per game and 23 combined TDs. Using fantasy points allowed as a marker, no defense has dispensed more holiday cheer. Aaron Jones is Matt LaFleur’s 1A back, but Williams, the 1B, has seen action on just over 54% of team snaps, tallying 40.8% of the opportunity share. Assuming he receives his usual 11-13 touches, husky totals are on the docket. Replicating what Chicago’s Cordarrelle Patterson achieved last Sunday against Detroit (11-63-1) is entirely buyable. Flexy sexy indeed! (FF: 10-46-1-2-11-0, 12.7 fantasy points)

WR: Cole Beasley, BUF (Line: PIT -1.5; DK: $5,000) — Strum the banjo. The player with the most Appalachian, moonshine-cookin’ name is about to post intoxicating numbers in Week 14. Pittsburgh’s most glaring inadequacy on defense is defending the slot. This season, they rank No. 3 in most yards and receptions allowed to slot receivers. Cameron Sutton, the primary DB in that area, has allowed a 68.3% catch percentage and 98.6 passer rating on the season. Beasley, who erupted against San Francisco in their temporary Glendale, Ariz. home totaling a 9-130-1 line, could extend his hot streak another week. His craftiness finding soft spots against zone coverage and route versatility have meshed seamlessly with Josh Allen. It’s a major reason why the QB ranks inside the top-five in adjusted completion percentage. With Joe Haden (72.0 passer rating allowed) and Steven Nelson (0.85 yds/snap allowed) locking down the outside, it will be Beasley who Allen adores most. (FF: 6-67-1, 15.7 fantasy points)

TE: Anthony Firkser, TEN (Line: TEN -7.5; DK: $3,600) — Shotgun three beers, throw down a bag of Flamin’ Hot Cheetos and spin around in place for 30 seconds. That sickly uneasiness is equivalent to every fantasy player’s feeling toward the tight end position this year. Firkser to the rescue? If he matches his 5-51-0 output, which is entirely doable, from last week versus Cleveland, he’s the hero we all desperately need. This week, the Titans square off against the Jacksonville Jaguars, a team that’s the college basketball equivalent to Chicago St. in the Derrick Henry Invitational. The rusher has repeatedly dunked on the Jags, exhibiting thunderous stiff arms and record-setting performances. He’s sure to go off, but Firkser is a smash spot of his own. This season, Doug Marrone’s club has allowed a 3.8-50.3-0.8 average line to tight ends, good for the seventh-most fantasy points yielded to the position. (FF: 4-48-1, 12.8 fantasy points)

Bonus flame: Cam Akers, RB, LAR (Line: LAR -5.5; DK: $5,200) — It only took Sean McVay the rough equivalent of a galactic year to come the same conclusion fantasy GMs realized in August, that Akers is unquestionably his most talented rushing weapon. He’s explosive, powerful between the tackles and flashes reliable hands. His 2.96 YAC per attempt and 21.4 missed tackle percentage are certainly attention grabbers. Most importantly, his 22 touches for 94 yards and a score recorded last week against Arizona should kick libidos into overdrive. It’s becoming abundantly clear Akers’ young, fresh legs will be leaned on over the final stretch. L.A.’s Week 13 opponent, New England, is surging defensively, evidenced by its annihilation of Justin Herbert and the Chargers last week. Still, McVay’s exotic schemes should create space for the greenhorn to shoot through. The Pats have allowed 4.37 yards per carry, 142.2 total yards per game and 10 combined TDs to RBs this year. Keep cranking the volume, wunderkind coach. (16-59-1-2-14-0, 14.3 fantasy points)

Super bonus flame: Brandon Aiyuk, WR, SF (Line: SF -3.5; DK: $5,400) — Deebo Samuel may steal all the spotlight among the mainstream pundits, but his sidekick is quickly developing into a shining fantasy star. His 28.6% target share registered along with the 6.5 receptions per game, 94.0 yards per game and three touchdowns logged in his past four contests has him on a blistering WR1 pace in 12-team formats. His 38.7 red-zone target percentage on the year also turns heads. San Francisco’s Week 14 opponent isn’t some minor league affiliate. Washington, off a toppling of once undefeated Pittsburgh, is one of the nastiest defenses in the league. This season, the Fighting Footballs have surrendered just 6.7 pass yards per attempt, the third-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers and the sixth-fewest air yards per game. Aiyuk, however, is riding one heck of a heater. Leaving him on the sidelines against Ronald Darby (1.50 yds/snap allowed) isn’t recommended. (FF: 5-62-1, 14.7 fantasy points)