Week 13 flames: Rookie Dobbins to buck Cowboys into stratosphere

Each week the Noise highlights under-started names who he believes are destined to torch the competition. To qualify, each player must be started in fewer than 60% of Yahoo! leagues. Speaking as an accountability advocate, I will post results, whether genius or moronic, the following week (Scoring thresholds – QB: 18 fantasy points, RB: 12 fantasy points, WR: 11 fantasy points: TE: 10 fantasy points; 0.5 PPR). If you’re a member of TEAM HUEVOS, reveal your Week 13 submissions via Twitter @NoisyHuevos.

Mitchell Trubisky, QB, Chicago Bears

(4% started in Yahoo; DK DFS: $5,400)
Matchup: vs. DET
Vegas line/Total: CHI -4, 45

Saved by Trubisky?! It sounds like the show title for an awkwardly cheesy 1980s sitcom starring Bronson Pinchot as the Bears passer, yet it could be the unsung storyline to your fantasy football season. Yes, the much-lampooned dude, who we’re constantly reminded was taken well ahead of Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes in the 2017 NFL Draft, could propel your teetering franchise into the second season. Just add it to the list of bat-shit crazy events only conceivable in 2020, George Clooney admitting he uses a Flowbee to cut his hair very much included. Hey, at least he’s a quarterback. Right, Denver?

Publicly shamed by the rival Packers on primetime television, Trubisky showed his usual mistake-prone form. He, once again, overlooked high-percentage intermediate throws in an attempt to hit home runs, forcing balls into nonexistent windows due to double coverage. His end line (242-3-2-11-FL) ranked top-12 for the week, but garbage time was certainly his friend. This week, in a battle to avoid the NFC North basement, he’s actually a signal caller to debate. The now Matt Patricia-less Lions are unquestionably dreadful in every facet defensively. This season, they’ve allowed 8.0 pass yards per attempt, 275.2 pass yards per game, 2.0 passing touchdowns per game and the seventh-most fantasy points to QBs. The path to points won’t be pretty — it never is with Mitch — but another QB1-level finish is a stronger likelihood than you choose to accept.

Fearless forecast: 255 passing yards, 3 passing touchdowns, 2 turnovers, 15 rushing yards, 21.7 fantasy points

J.K. Dobbins, RB, Baltimore Ravens

(21%; N/A)
Matchup: at DAL
Vegas line/Total: BAL -7, 50

The scourge of positive 'rona tests has really, uh, tested our patience this season, with the fantasy managers of the various Ravens the latest victims of the waiting game. When Dobbins (and backfield-mate Mark Ingram) tested positive at the start of last week, we all scratched them off our lists for Week 12. When the game was rescheduled to Sunday-then-Tuesday-then-Wednesday, it started to look like they'd have time to clear protocols and get back on the field. Unfortunately, as of Wednesday morning, reports indicate that while both could return for the Wednesday game, neither is likely to do so. So that's bad news for Week 12, but it does tell us that both backs should be good to go for a Week 13 game that has been moved to next Tuesday.

Assuming he's back for that one, Dobbins, similar to another transcendent rookie before him, Antonio Gibson, could catch fire at the most opportune time. Fantasy playoff aspirations are on the line after all. With Lamar Jackson likely back, he should tear through a Cowboys defense constructed from wet tissue paper. This season, Mike Nolan’s feckless bunch have allowed 4.83 yards per carry, 152.1 total yards per game, 12 total TDs and the fifth-most fantasy points to RBs. Dobbins, who’s posted a sensational 3.00-plus YAC per attempt and 22.5% missed tackle rate, should thrive on 15-17 touches, possibly racing to his second 100-yard performance of the season.

Fearless forecast: 14 carries, 71 rushing yards, 2 receptions, 12 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 15.3 fantasy points

Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts

(27%; $5,700)
Matchup: vs. HOU
Vegas line/Total: IND -2.5, 54

For weeks, Frank Reich played endless mind games with the fantasy community. One week he featured Nyheim Hines in a more upt-empo approach. Another week the acrobatic scatback, Taylor and Jordan Wilkins evenly rotated in an indecipherable RBBC. Other times it’s Taylor who commanded the lion’s share. Reich is that guy at the bar who, when presented with multiple options, takes an eternity to make a decision. Blessed with the indecisiveness of a 6-year-old, his brain-racking approach has pushed investors toward the bottle. But as the tentative head coach displayed in Week 11 by giving the rusher 26 touches and what he intimated leading up to Sunday’s battle with Tennessee only to be thrown a curveball after the rookie landed on the Reserve/COVID-19 list, this is Taylor’s backfield rest of the season. And it’s about damn time.

Jordan Howard on crutches would limp his way to at least 80 combined yards and a TD against Houston. The Texans’ gap integrity is arguably the poorest in the league. They’ve ceded 5.25 yards per carry, a league high 185.7 total yards, 15 total touchdowns and the second-fewest fantasy points to RBs. Taylor, who in his last outing resembled the chain-moving back from his Wisconsin days, totaled an impressive 3.41 YAC per attempt against Green Bay. His prominent leg drive should easily push through Houston’s unrestrictive defense. Chip in his noteworthy receiving role and he could climb into the RB1 ranks for Week 13. If cleared in time, start him with confidence. If he’s unavailable, pull the trigger on Hines as your RB2 and/or Wilkins in the flex.

Fearless forecast: 18 carries, 82 rushing yards, 3 receptions, 20 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 17.7 fantasy points

Corey Davis, WR, Tennessee Titans

(22%; $5,100)
Matchup: vs. CLV
Vegas line/Total: TEN -4, 54

When Davis was selected at No. 5 overall in the 2017 NFL Draft, immediate hyperbolic projections entered into the fantasy lexicon. His mixture of size, speed and route polish convinced many, this moronic dingleberry included, he was destined for statistical greatness. Flash forward to the present and Davis is regarded as one of the biggest draft busts of the past decade. His 69-841-4 campaign in 2018, his finest to date, topped out at WR27 in 0.5 PPR formats. The trail of disappointment carved by the wideout is why many would never remotely entertain his services no matter the situation or matchup. However, for those with sketchy options at WR in 12-team leagues, burying the hatchet in advance of Week 13 is highly recommended.

Without much fanfare, Davis has strung together a few resourceful games. Since Week 7, he’s amassed 27 receptions for 413 yards and two touchdowns. His accompanying 13.1-yard average depth of target and 15.3 yards per catch were also significant. This week exchanging season’s greetings with Cleveland, he’s at least a WR3 in 12-team leagues. The Browns have yielded 7.1 pass yards per attempt, the 12th-most air yards per game and 11th-most fantasy points to wide receivers. Granularly, his projected matchup, Denzel Ward, has allowed just an 85.2 passer rating and 0.85 yards per snap. Still ride the hot hand. Titan up.

Fearless forecast: 5 receptions, 66 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 15.1 fantasy points

Sterling Shepard, WR, New York Giants

(38%; $5,300)
Matchup: at SEA
Vegas line/Total: SEA -9

Uprooted from his serene abode in upstate New York, chaotically transferred to the big city and resurrected in Rockefeller Center, Rocky the Owl, who was found in the Christmas tree, is the embodiment of 2020. We’ve all felt ripped away from normalcy, but, like our feathered friend, a return to the standard is soon on the horizon.

Shepard, hampered by myriad injuries during his past two seasons, too, has started to rediscover his reliable PPR form. He snagged just one touchdown in seven contests, but with at least six receptions in six games, the occasional slot man (31.6% of snaps) is a steady double-digit fantasy-point producer.

This week, Shepard receives an early Christmas gift, Seattle’s secondary. Executing with the zeal of your stoner brother attempting to finish a lightly-jogged-yet-terribly-laborious one-mile run, the ‘Hawks remain the most generous pass defense in the NFL. They’ve allowed a staggering 7.7 pass yards per attempt, the most fantasy points to WRs and the most air yards per contest. Whether against Ugochukwu Amadi (87.9 passer rating allowed) in the slot or D.J. Reed (110.2) along the perimeter, Shepard and his quick-chopping routes should manufacture ample space en route to a WR2 line. Yes, even with vagabond Colt McCoy replacing hamstrung Daniel Jones at QB.

Fearless forecast: 7 receptions, 69 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 16.4 fantasy points

Shocker special (under 10% started)

Breshad Perriman, WR, New York Jets

(5%; $3,900)
Matchup: vs. LV
Vegas line/Total: LV -7.5, 47.5

With playoff hopes on the line, putting your faith in a Jet ranks up there with employing the Wet Bandits to overcome booby traps set by a clever prepubescent boy in an upscale Chicago suburb, a tall order. This Puddle Jumper, however, likely won’t hurl a paint can at your face. New York’s offense has climbed out of its hellish hole of ineptitude, replaced by the bumbling Bears as the league’s lamest offense. The emergence of Denzel Mims, consistency of Jamison Crowder and Perriman’s field-stretching contributions have the winless franchise trending in the right direction. That is, in one category. Week 12 did mark the first time this season Sam Darnold, who missed extensive time with a shoulder setback, played with a full stable of receivers.

This week, the 0-fer Jets square off against “Chunky” Gruden — odds of him having a third helping of stuffing on Thanksgiving cashed easily at -200 — and his crew, featuring one of the league’s most malleable defenses. Through 12 weeks, the Raiders have surrendered 7.1 pass yards per attempt, the fifth-most air yards per game and the 14th-most fantasy points to WRs. Perriman’s projected traveling buddy, rookie CB Damon Arnette, has taken his lumps, yielding a 132.2 passer rating and 2.01 yards per snap. Lighting up fantasy scoreboards this time last year with Tampa, the Jets’ downfield specialist is in a fantastic position to top 10 fantasy points for the fourth-straight week.

Fearless forecast: 4 receptions, 60 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 16.0 fantasy points

Bonus flames (under 60% started)

QB: Derek Carr, LV (Line: LV -8; DK: $5,800) — Wile E. Coyote straight off the cliff and landing face first in the dusty canyon below. That, my fantasy friends, is the perfect parallel for Carr’s catastrophic performance last week against Atlanta. Only a hop, skip and jump ahead of practice-squad-WR-turned-QB Kendall Hinton in Week 12 fantasy scoring finishing with 215 yards, zero TDs and a pick, he whizzed in everyone’s gravy boat. Because recency bias is an intoxicating drug, most will pivot off the QB in Week 13. Take advantage. Against the Jets, a bounceback is almost too predictable. This season, the Paper Airplanes have surrendered 7.9 pass yards per attempt, 291.5 pass yards per game, 1.9 passing TDs per game and the fourth-most fantasy points to QBs. Give him another chance. If Josh Jacobs is unavailable or limited, Carr’s arm will be an even greater point of emphasis. (FF: 261-2-0-12, 19.6 fantasy points)

RB: Myles Gaskin, MIA (Line: MIA -11; DK: $5,900) — Locked away in cold storage, Gaskin didn’t return last week despite getting in limited sessions. With Salvon Ahmed also inactive, the Dolphins leaned on the three-headed ferret of Matt Breida, Patrick Laird and DeAndre Washington. Granted a converted kicker-turned-RB from Savannah State would probably penetrate the Jets’ forgiving front with ease, but the trio performed serviceably piling up 152 total yards. Still, even if Ahmed is green-lit, the full expectation is for Gaskin to receive a handsome workload this week against Cincinnati. Talk about a ripe opportunity to regain your legs. This season the hairball-lodged Bengals have coughed up 5.07 yards per carry, 143.8 total yards per game, nine combined TDs and the 10th-most fantasy points to the RB position, ranking in the bottom third in adjusted line yards allowed. If cleared for action, expect him to record a useful 12-14 touches, at a minimum. (FF: 15-57-1-4-16-0, 15.3 fantasy points)

RB: Raheem Mostert, SF (Line: BUF -3; DK: $6,200) — Back in the saddle after a prolonged layoff, San Francisco’s bottle rocket sparked a Niners ground game in search of explosiveness. Against the Rams his burst, elusiveness and tackle-breaking skills were clearly on display as he racked 43 total yards and a TD on 18 touches. This week, Mostert should again fire the turbo booster, even though the Niners, currently vagabonds due to Santa Clara County instituted restrictions, are now calling Arizona “home.” His opponent, Buffalo, is gelatinous in the trenches. This season, the Bills have allowed 4.57 yards per carry, 143.3 total yards per game, 10 combined TDs and the ninth-most fantasy points to the RB position. With the Niners’ defense finally rounding into form after COVID-19 and physical setbacks, game flow should favor the rusher. If you want to punch your ticket for the postseason, employ him at RB2 in 12-team leagues. (FF: 14-64-1, 2-11-0, 14.5 fantasy points)

WR: Gabriel Davis, BUF (Line: BUF -3; DK: $4,300) — In the dustiest corners of the waiver wire, fantasy value sits unnoticed. When John Brown landed on injured reserve with a bum ankle, only a select few astute GMs sifted through the free agent pool seeking Davis’ services. Those who did reaped immediate reward as the rookie grabbed three passes for 79 yards and a score versus the Chargers. When pressed into at least 50% of the snap share, Davis has often attracted the limelight. On the season, his 16.3 average depth of target and 16.1 yards per catch both rank top-10 among qualifying wide receivers. With Richard Sherman back in the fold, the Bills’ Week 13 matchup is rather foreboding. He and Jason Verrett (85.7 passer rating allowed) are quite the fearsome tandem. Still, Davis’ playing time spike, home run hitting ability and sizable red zone role (40.0 RZ target%) arrow to a solid WR3 return. (FF: 4-59-1, 13.9 fantasy points)

TE: Kyle Rudolph, MIN (Line: MIN -9.5; DK: $3,400) — ‘Tis the season for the Red Zone Reindeer to pull the sleigh, and your fantasy squad, into the postseason. Forget the tinsel, popcorn strings and eggnog, all fantasy GMs want is 6-8 points weekly from their tight end. That’s how barren the position currently is. With Irv Smith’s status very much in limbo, Rudolph is more than capable of again rising to the occasion. Last week in a featured role, he grabbed seven passes on eight targets for a season-high 68 yards. Adam Thielen’s reactivation will reduce the tight end’s workload, but he could still easily plunge antlers into the competition. Jacksonville’s linebackers are generally dreadful in pass defense. This season they’ve allowed 4.0 receptions per game, 54.0 yards per game, nine TDs and the second-most fantasy points to TEs. Don’t defy Santa. Put Rudolph in your lineup. (FF: 3-42-1, 11.7 fantasy points)

Bonus flame: Cam Akers, RB, LAR (Line: LAR -2; DK: $4,500) — Every December, rookie peach fuzz is replaced with noticeable virility. The game slows. Confidence grows. Numbers pile up. After an eye-popping nine carries for 84 yards and a TD, much of it coming on a 61-yard scamper, against San Francisco, it’s long overdue for Sean McVay to feed his most talented RB. Malcolm Brown is a ham-and-egger and Darrell Henderson’s efficiency has plummeted in recent weeks. Akers, meanwhile, No. 10 in YAC per attempt (3.34), typically makes the most of his limited opportunities. This could be the week McVay rides the youngster’s fresh legs. The Rams travel to the desert for a critical intra-divisional showdown against the Cardinals. This season, Arizona has surrendered 4.31 yards per carry, 92.5 rush yards per game and 11 total TDs to RBs. The risks are obvious, but spin the wheel at the flex and you may come out a winner. (FF: 12-51-1, 1-6-0, 12.2 fantasy points)