Week 10 flames: Lazard a much-needed WR remedy in likely lineup return

Each week the Noise highlights under-started names who he believes are destined to torch the competition. To qualify, each player must be started in fewer than 60% of Yahoo! leagues. Speaking as an accountability advocate, I will post results, whether genius or moronic, the following week (Scoring thresholds – QB: 18 fantasy points, RB: 12 fantasy points, WR: 11 fantasy points: TE: 10 fantasy points; .5 PPR). If you’re a member of TEAM HUEVOS, reveal your Week 10 Flames on Twitter @NoisyHuevos.

Baker Mayfield, QB, Cleveland Browns

(11% started in Yahoo; DK DFS: $6,000)
Matchup: vs. HOU
Vegas line/Total: CLV -3, 54

A pitchman for multiple companies, Mayfield, terribly underwhelming over the past year-plus, is an unusual spokesperson. His persistent mediocrity has led many to believe his “house,” rat-infested, overpriced and in disrepair, will continue to rot on Zillow drawing minimal interest. With the exception of his 5-TD outburst at Cincinnati in Week 7, he’s mostly wallowed in statistical squalor. Only three times this season has he crossed the 20 fantasy-point threshold. Only three times has he thrown for 200-plus yards. Equally troubling, he ranks outside the top-20 in multiple key efficiency categories including pass yards per attempt (6.8), catchable pass rate and adjusted completion percentage. Without top target Odell Beckham, most, understandably, would immediately write him off regardless of matchup.

Houston, however, isn’t your run-of-the-mill charitable defense. Nope, they’re positively putrid. Mayfield could go from outhouse to penthouse as the Texans have surrendered 7.8 pass yards per attempt, 270.5 pass yards per game, an absurd 18:2 TD:INT split and the 10th-most fantasy points to signal callers. Top corner Bradley Roby, inactive last Sunday due to disciplinary reasons, could return, but it matters little. Since Houston rarely applies pressure (No. 27 in pressure percentage), Baker should be a touchdown maker with ample time to set, step and fire. Nick Chubb’s presumed activation only amplifies the possibility. (This, of course, assumes the passer is cleared of COVID-19 concerns.)

Fearless forecast: 253 passing yards, 2 passing touchdowns, 0 turnovers, 8 rushing yards, 18.9 fantasy points

Leonard Fournette, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

(34%; $5,500)
Matchup: at CAR
Vegas line/Total: TB -4.5, 47

Bruce Arians has officially earned his seat at the table of coachspeak deceit joining the likes of Mike Shanahan, Bill Belichick and former Bills OC Nathaniel Hackett who once infamously declared C.J. Spiller would be fed until he puked. Ah, memories. The Tampa head coach’s treachery is equally dastardly, if not moreso. He and Tom Brady’s strong distrust in Ronald Jones, a rusher whose downhill burst, through contact drive and balance are far superior, is chicanery at its dumbest. Speaking fairly, Fournette is the more reliable receiver, but witnessed in 100-yard performances versus the Chargers, Bears and Packers, Jones is the more effective early-down back. One would think deploying Jones on first and second downs with Fournette utilized in passing situations makes the most sense. Yet here we are, immersed in a maddening week-to-week rotation, Arians’ mischief on clear display.

This week, it’s plausible both Bucs backs crack fantasy starting lineups. Their opponent, the Fighting Sir Purrs, are clawless defending the run. Carolina’s front stands at No. 21 in adjusted line yards and ranks inside the top-five in most fantasy points allowed to RBs. In total, the Panthers have surrendered 4.54 yards per carry, 145.0 total yards per game and 11 combined touchdowns to the position. More importantly for Fournette’s devices, they’ve given up a league high 63 receptions to rushers (7.0 per game). The former Jag jolted Matt Rhule’s club to the tune of 116 combined yards and a pair of scores Week 2. It’s unlikely he’ll replicate the effort, but a top-20 finish is entirely bankable.

Fearless forecast: 12 carries, 44 rushing yards, 4 receptions, 28 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 15.2 fantasy points

Antonio Gibson, RB, Washington Football Team

(58%; $5,600)
Matchup: at DET
Vegas line/Total: DET -3.5, 46.5

One of the most heartwarming developments in a season filled with dispiriting setbacks is the miraculous return to live action for Alex Smith. His well-documented journey from a horrific broken leg — which included multiple complications requiring nine total surgeries — to live game play is a testament to Smith’s unfettered determination. Now back in the starting lineup after Kyle Allen dislocated his ankle in Week 9, the veteran’s odyssey has come full circle. Gibson, promptly involved as a receiver when Smith entered the game last week against New York, stands to benefit.

Confidence in the rookie has slowly grown. His tackle-shaking abilities (26.8% missed tackle percentage), open-field burst and versatility have occasionally popped. J.D. McKissic has steadily snaked touches in the pass game, but the youngster should receive a steady 14- to 16-touch dose over the remainder of the season. For a team lacking playmakers outside Terry McLaurin, his presence is necessary. This week against a disastrous Detroit run defense, one that comically rolled out 10 players on a run play Dalvin Cook housed for 70 yards last Sunday, he’ll pump the pistons. On the year, the Lions have officially supplanted Green Bay as the friendliest front in the NFL. They’ve yielded 5.07 yards per carry, 186.5 total yards per game and 15 combined TDs to the position. In 0.5-PPR formats eight rushers have scored at least 13 fantasy points against them. Gibson is sure to pile on.

Fearless forecast: 16 carries, 73 rushing yards, 3 receptions, 19 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 16.7 fantasy points

Allen Lazard, WR, Green Bay Packers

(5%; $4,000)
Matchup: vs. JAX
Vegas line/Total: GB -13.5, 53

There’s a reason why Aaron Rodgers now sports a bone polish. For months, the dude slowly ripped his hair out frustrated with his franchise’s dealings, or lack thereof. Whether during free agency, the NFL Draft or at the trade deadline, Green Bay refused to address an imperative question — Will they acquire a reliable WR2? Marquez Valdes-Scantling, about as consistent as your purposely dodgy buddy paying off betting debts, has only sporadically provided the appropriate answer. For the most part, it’s target hog Davante Adams who has shouldered the burden, blasting defenses repeatedly with explosive outside-the-numbers catches.

Prior to muscle core surgery, a procedure that placed him on injured reserve, Lazard flashed the promise Rodgers so desperately sought. Hauling in 76.5% of the QB’s intended looks and netting a massive 19.5 yards per catch, he racked quality numbers against Minnesota, Detroit and New Orleans slashing a 4.3-84.7-2 average line. When the State Farm pitchman targeted him, he tallied a gigantic 157.2 passer rating. His big-play ability is exactly what the Packers have yearned for. Expected to return this week against Jacksonville, expect the pair to rekindle their budding on-field romance. Jags starting DBs Sidney Jones (1.83 yards per snap allowed) and C.J. Henderson (1.62) haven’t exactly blanketed assignments. Even more vulnerable in the slot, a place where Lazard lines up 35% of the time, his prospects for a smashing return only turn rosier.

Fearless forecast: 4 receptions, 63 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 14.3 fantasy points

Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona Cardinals

(6%; $3,900)
Matchup: vs. BUF
Vegas line/Total: ARZ -1.5, 53

In wide receiver speak, Fitzgerald may be older than president-elect Joe Biden. He’s ancient, a future Hall of Famer clearly in the twilight of his career. He’s No. 9 in contested catch rate but averaging an unusable 4.1 receptions and 32.6 yards per game, he’s eclipsed 10 fantasy points just twice this season in PPR formats. Most damning, he’s lured a meaningless two red-zone targets and scored zero touchdowns. Still, second all-time to pass-catching GOAT Jerry Rice, in total receptions, Fitzgerald could turn back the clock to tack on a few noteworthy catches to his 1,411 career total.

Working away from all-world corner Tre'Davious White is always a successful formula against the Bills. Quick hitters across the middle paired with occasional explosive downfield air strikes is an effective strategy. With White presumably draping DeAndre Hopkins and minus reliable tight ends, Christian Kirk and Fitz are likely to pick up the slack. The latter, working out of the slot 88.1% of the time, will clash helmets with corner Taron Johnson who’s allowed a 77.6 catch percentage, 103.8 passer rating and 1.80 yards per snap to his assignments. Similar to Jamison Crowder, Cooper Kupp and Hunter Renfrow before him, the future Canton enshrined receiver maybe, just maybe, posts usable WR3 numbers for the first time this season.

Fearless forecast: 6 receptions, 58 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 14.8 fantasy points

Shocker special (under 10% started)

DeAndre Washington, RB, Miami Dolphins

(1%; $4,100)
Matchup: vs. LAC
Vegas line/Total: MIA -3, 49.5

Last season in the 11th hour with Josh Jacobs sidelined and fantasy title hopes on the line, Washington was a white knight wearing black. Then a member of the Oakland Raiders, he operated as the team’s workhorse in Weeks 16-17, tallying an exhaustive 48 touches for 238 total yards and a touchdown. His heroic efforts at the most opportune time scored a jackpot for all of those willing to roll the dice. Now freed from being buried on KC’s RB depth chart, he has an opportunity to again seize a gaping vacancy spurred by injury, this time in Miami. Jordan Howard, who couldn’t puncture a melted marshmallow, Patrick Laird and Salvon Ahmed, though injecting some juice last week on his seven carries for 38 yards, aren’t the answers. With Myles Gaskin out another couple weeks, it’s Washington, acquired for a conditional sixth-round pick, who has the best chance to step in and fill the void competently. Cleared from COVID-19 protocols, he’s a fascinating deep-league flex option in Week 10.

The Chargers’ batteries on defense are running low. With or without Joey Bosa on the field, they’ve come unraveled plugging the run. Over their past four games, L.A., against the likes of Devontae Booker and Denver’s mediocre rushing attack, has allowed a mammoth 5.27 yards per carry, 152.0 total yards per game, four combined TDs and the eighth-most fantasy points to tugboats. Due to their recent underperformance, they now rank in the bottom half of adjusted line yards yielded on the year.

Keep close tabs on local reports regarding Washington’s availability. If pushed into the fire immediately, he could cook for fantasy devices, especially if Matt Breida remains in street clothes.

Fearless forecast: 10 carries, 46 rushing yards, 2 receptions, 11 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 12.7 fantasy points

Bonus flames (under 60% started)

QB: Nick Mullens, SF (Line: NO -6.5; DK: $5,300) — The Niners are invariably cursed. Richard Sherman, Nick Bosa, Jimmy Garoppolo, George Kittle — the injury imp is loose in San Francisco and it’s feasting on the flesh of 49ers. So hexed is the franchise, Brandon Aiyuk and Kendrick Bourne, originally thought to be COVID-19 positive, wound up testing negative one day after missing Thursday night’s Green Bay bludgeoning. Unlucky. With one of the wideouts back — Bourne is again on the COVID-19 list after botching protocol — and an outside shot Deebo Samuel returns, Mullens is a sneaky Week 10 start. Though he’s posted a sensational 156.3 passer rating on eight chucks beyond 20 yards (SAMPLE SIZE!), he’s QB23 in adjusted completion percentage. Overall, he’s largely mediocre, but his Week 10 opponent, New Orleans, typically serves up heavenly numbers to the opposition. Including last Sunday’s complete annihilation of Tampa, the Saints have given up 7.2 pass yards per attempt, 251.4 pass yards per game, 2.4 passing touchdowns per contest and the second-most air yards per game. Patrick Mahomes and Matt Ryan backers who pan for waiver wire gold may strike it rich. (FF: 277-2-1, 18.1 fantasy points)

RB: Zack Moss, BUF (Line: ARZ -1.5; DK: $5,200) — The sledgehammer to Devin Singletary’s finesse, Moss is Buffalo’s clear-cut power complement. His contact balance, leg churn and versatility are why Sean McDermott and Co. continue to deploy him most often in red-zone situations. Locked in as a 12- to 14-touch-per-game back, he could pay handsome dividends down the stretch, especially when the matchup warrants. This week, Arizona is one such money-making opportunity. The Cardinals, No. 19 in adjusted line yards allowed, have surrendered 4.30 yards per carry, 142.7 total yards per game and seven combined TDs to rushers. If ham and egger Jordan Howard can splash pay-dirt against ‘Zona, odds are incredibly strong Moss will match. (FF: 11-44-1, 2-17-0, 13.1 fantasy points)

RB: Phillip Lindsay, DEN (Line: LV -4; DK: $5,000) — A two-time 1,000-yard rusher, he was a local product from the University of Colorado who became the first undrafted NFL rookie to earn Pro Bowl honors in 2018. Who is Phillip Lindsay? In my best Alex Trebek voice, “Correct.” RIP, legend. Pushing Melvin Gordon into an undeniable timeshare, Lindsay is earning 50-55% of the opportunities weekly. Over the past three weeks he’s netted a flex-worthy 61.7 rush yards per game, scoring one TD while totaling a divine 4.74 yards after contact per attempt. Gordon runs with the burst of a slug trudging through molasses. Lindsay, a shotgun blast by comparison, deserves more touches. Taking up arms this week against the Raiders he’s highly employable. Vegas has allowed 4.7 yards per carry, 94.0 rush yards per game, nine ground scores and the fourth-most fantasy points to RBs. (FF: 14-63-1, 1-7-0, 13.5 fantasy points)

WR: Darnell Mooney, CHI (Line: MIN -2.5; DK: NA) — Take a swig of Chicago’s Moonshine and intoxicating production could jolt the system. Yes, the Bears are a cabin floor covering, slowly creeping their way to irrelevancy after a 5-0 start, but the rookie speedster is quickly developing into one of the favorite targets of “The Big Flaccid” (Nick Foles). Among WRs with at least 20 targets, he ranks WR6 with a 15.90-yard average depth of target. In total, he’s accounted for 26.9% of Chicago’s air yards share. Against a ragtag Minnesota secondary minus several starters, the fleet-footed rookie should take advantage. The Vikes rank No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to WRs and Mooney’s expected dance partner, Kris Boyd, has given up 1.83 yards per snap to assignments. Most encouragingly, Minnesota has only applied pressure 21% of the time, meaning Foles will have time to load and fire. (FF: 4-66-1, 14.6 fantasy points)

TE: Dallas Goedert, PHI (Line: PHI -3; DK: $4,200) — The tight end position, particularly during a bye week forcing Travis Kelce and Hayden Hurst out of lineups, is equivalent to barren toilet paper aisle shelves peak pandemic. Few, if any, trustworthy options exist. Goedert, though, is a package of Charmin Ultra Soft hidden among paper towels. Travis Fulgham and Jalen Reagor will vie for attention, but fresh off the bye, the TE should be one of Carson Wentz’s favorite weapons. The Giants have surrendered the 10th-fewest fantasy points to the position, but fellow Eagle Richard Rodgers erupted for 6-85-0 Week 7 against them. Follow the projected volume. Survive the week. (FF: 5-60-1, 14.5 fantasy points)

Bonus flame: Antonio Brown, WR, TB (Line: TB -6.5; DK: $5,800) — Shellacking. Butt kicking. A level of embarrassment only the Jets can fully comprehend. The much-hyped battle between dueling HOFers Sunday night ended in an unexpected bloodbath. The lone silver lining, however, was Brown. He didn’t light up the box score in his debut, but his vintage quick twitch, high-traffic toughness and sure hands were visible. On 39 snaps, he grabbed three passes for 31 yards and tallied 99 air yards. Promising. With an early December court case looming, his days with the franchise may be brief. Still, with the dust knocked off and Tom Brady likely extremely motivated to wash away last week’s bitter taste, he’s worth sliding into your starting lineup. Carolina has performed adequately defending the pass, conceding 6.9 pass yards per attempt, 253.7 pass yards per game and the eighth-fewest fantasy points to WRs. Still, Brady-to-Brown is sure to be front and center. (FF: 5-62-1, 14.7 fantasy points)

Super bonus flame: Jordan Wilkins, RB, IND (Line: TEN -1; DK: $4,300) — One-third. That’s the answer to, “How will the Indy backfield touch distribution be divided in Week 9?” Credit to Frank Reich. His infatuation for all three backs didn’t waver. This is and will continue to be a full-blown RBBC. It’s possible to deploy two or all three at RB2 and the flex in the same fantasy lineup, especially when the matchup warrants. Wilkins, unquestionably the most efficient option among the trio (3.22 YAC/att; 27.7% missed tackle percentage), is arguably the most trustworthy Colts back on the short week. His opponent, Tennessee, has allowed 4.5 yards per carry, 127.1 total yards per game, 11 combined TDs and the eighth-most fantasy points to RBs. If another double-digit workload is on the agenda Thursday, he has excellent odds of posting RB2-worthy numbers. Time to go back to the well. (FF: 12-49-1, 2-10-0, 12.9 fantasy points)

Super-duper bonus flame: DeVante Parker, WR, MIA (Line: MIA -2.5; DK: $5,000) — The goal of weekday sportstalk TV is to energize the lowest common denominator whether with positive or negative spins. Bloviating Skip Bayless, the irrefutable emperor of plebeian commentary, spouted off last week that Tua Tagovailoa’s tenure with Miami could be short lived. The organization, he claimed, was rumored to possibly move on from the rookie, who they spent a top-five overall pick on, at year’s end. Pure balderdash. Tua was nothing short of brilliant last week in Arizona. He was accurate (QB5 in adjusted completion percentage in Week 9), opportunistic with his legs and clutch. Against the Chargers, look for him to pick up where he left off tossing frozen ropes in Parker’s general direction. With Preston Williams likely out (foot), last year’s breakthrough receiver is in line for a mammoth target share. He’ll see a ton of Casey Hayward (102.1 passer rating allowed), but it’s hard to ignore his 10-12 target potential. (FF: 5-67-1, 15.2 fantasy points)