Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Week 1 of the 2022 NFL season has arrived, and it’s time to set our fantasy football lineups.
As always, lineup decisions are the hardest part of your life as a fantasy manager, and you’ll want to consult as many factors as possible to help you make those choices.
Since you’re reading this article, it’s safe to assume you’re looking for any and every edge possible. And one of the most underutilized data points in season-long leagues are betting lines.
Betting lines to find a streaming QB: Week 1
FTN’s Nick Makowitz has you covered with a full article on streaming QB options for Week 1, but you can also consult the betting lines to help you make a choice.
Using implied team and game totals from the FTN Bets NFL Odds page, we can quickly search for possible top-end streaming QB targets. Here are teams with implied Vegas team totals that rank in the 80th percentile or better this week:
In the chart above, you’re looking for is double green in the two colored columns. The column on the far right shows you the implied team total as a percentile (e.g. 80% means that team is expected to score 80% as many points as the team expected to score the most points this week).
Some weeks, you don’t get potential streamers with double green. Just try to get as close as you can.
Here is a quick list of streaming QB options generated by using point spread betting lines only:
Betting lines to find a streaming DST: Week 1
Using implied team and game totals, we can quickly search for possible top-end streaming DST targets. Here are teams with the best implied Vegas team totals against for this week.
Only teams that are expected to give up within 40% as many points as the defense expected to give up the fewest points are shown (e.g. if the fewest expected points allowed in a given week is 20, this chart will only show teams expected to give up between 20-28 points).
In the chart above, you’re looking for red in the colored column on the left (any color in the colored column on the right is okay).
Here are some streaming DST options that jump out at first:
- Cincinnati Bengals
- Tennessee Titans
- Washington Commanders
- Miami Dolphins
- Cleveland Browns
- Philadelphia Eagles
- Jacksonville Jaguars
FTN’s Matthew Davis has you covered with a full article on streaming DST candidates for Week 1 so you can dive into some favorite options a bit more.
Predicted Game Flow Intelligence
You can use betting lines to predict game flow. This can help you decide on a flex. If you have a pass-catcher, you want games in which his team is expected to be trailing. For running backs, you’ll want games in which they are expected to be winning.
Here are the 10 teams expected to win by the most in Week 1:
The above teams may offer good RB targets. QBs and pass-catchers can also succeed for these offenses (teams do have to build leads somehow), but when looking for rusher-friendly game-scripts, this is one of the best places to start.
On the RB front, of players you may be needing to make a decision on, the expected game flow could be good news for:
- Nyheim Hines
- Elijah Mitchell
- Mike Davis and Kenyan Drake
- Melvin Gordon
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire
- Mark Ingram
- Miles Sanders and Kenneth Gainwell
- Chase Edmonds and Raheem Mostert
And here are the 10 teams expected to lose by the most in Week 1:
These teams may offer good QB/WR/TE/pass-catching RB targets. Of players you may be needing to make a decision on, the expected game flow could be good news for:
- Nico Collins
- Pat Freiermuth, Chase Claypool, George Pickens
- Cole Kmet, Darnell Mooney
- Elijah Moore, Garrett Wilson
- Tyler Lockett, Noah Fant
- Zach Ertz, Rondale Moore, A.J. Green (monitor Ertz and Moore on the injury report)
- Kadarius Toney, Kenny Golladay, Wan’Dale Robinson
- Cordarrelle Patterson, Drake London
- Amon-Ra St. Brown, DJ Chark
- Rhamondre Stevenson, Hunter Henry, DeVante Parker, Jakobi Meyers, Kendrick Bourne
- Hunter Renfrow
As with everything in fantasy football, Vegas-projected game flow shouldn’t be the only factor you consider. But it’s a great way to use betting lines to get some insight into how your players’ games could play out — and use it as a tiebreaker when you can’t decide on who to start.
