Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Week 8 of the NFL season starts with a critical home game for the Buffalo Bills. As the preseason betting favorite to win the Super Bowl, Buffalo has disappointed through the first seven weeks of the season. Buffalo is sitting at 4-3, trailing Miami by a full game in the AFC East. The Bills are only one game behind the Jets (3-3), and New York owns the tiebreaker with a Week 1 upset victory.
Each week, I will select my favorite prop bets on the Thursday night slate. You can find all our Week 6 player projections here at FTNBets. All of the available betting lines for this week’s opening matchup are available on our FTNBets Prop Shop, where you can easily shop around for the sportsbook with the best odds on each player or team.
Let’s take a look at my favorite prop for this week’s Thursday night matchup!
Week 8 Player Prop
James Cook Over 70.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
(-115, Caesars)
James Cook has embraced the lead running back role in Buffalo and is an essential part of both the rushing and receiving attack for the Bills. With Damien Harris now on injured reserve, Cook’s production has improved steadily throughout the season. Per our FTN Fantasy Finishes Tool, Cook has increased his fantasy RB ranking in each of the past three weeks.
The Bills now host Tampa Bay in a critical game that is as close to a “must-win” as they have experienced all season. If Buffalo drops to 4-4, with a road matchup at Cincinnati in Week 9 on Sunday Night Football, their playoff chances could actually be in danger. I expect a big performance from the Buffalo offense, with James Cook in the midst of that production.
Cook continues to be one of the most efficient running backs in the league, averaging 4.8 yards per carry and 10.9 yards per reception. With the exception of the odd London game against Jacksonville, he has beaten this number in five straight weeks. With tight end Dawson Knox out indefinitely with wrist surgery, I expect Cook to be an ever-larger part of the short to intermediate passing attack.
The Buccaneers’ run defense is strong, ranking 11th best per defensive DVOA, but has started to look vulnerable the past two weeks. Last week at home against Atlanta, Tyler Allgeier posted 112 total yards including this 46-yard reception.
I love backing running backs on a short week, especially with the home team. This play is similar to the Tony Pollard MNF play from earlier this season. Cook’s versatility is such an asset, I don’t want to decide between his rushing and receiving prowess. We project Cook for 76 total rushing and receiving yards on FTN Bets.
