Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Alexander MattisonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Packers vs. Vikings
Right now, Alexander Mattison’s rushing yards prop is set at 47.5 yards (-120/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 47.5 (-110) after it opened @ 49.5 (-115).
Pros
- Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Minnesota Vikings are forecasted by our trusted projection set to call 66.3 plays on offense in this contest: the 6th-most on the slate this week.
- Alexander Mattison has run for many more adjusted yards per game (50.0) this season than he did last season (16.0).
- This year, the anemic Packers run defense has been gouged for a colossal 148.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to the opposing side: the 3rd-worst in football.
- As it relates to the defensive ends’ role in stopping the run, Green Bay’s DE corps has been atrocious this year, ranking as the 5th-worst in football. in football.
Cons
- Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Vikings to run on 37.7% of their plays: the 5th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
- The Vikings have run the 9th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 56.1 plays per game.
- While Alexander Mattison has been responsible for 68.7% of his team’s rushing play calls in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be a less important option in Minnesota’s run game in this week’s contest at 48.6%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
49
Rushing Yards
49
Rushing Yards
