Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Week 6 brings us a fantastic matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and Los Angeles Chargers. The Cowboys are coming off an embarrassing 42-10 drubbing by San Francisco, while the Chargers are hoping a bye week and return of key players from injury will equate to a huge home victory. This projects as a high-scoring game with two of the NFL’s best offenses matching up on Monday Night Football.
Here is my favorite prop bet for tonight’s Monday Night matchup!
Tony Pollard Over 93.5 Rushing plus Receiving Yards
(-114, BetRivers)
This is a usage play for the Cowboys’ clear RB1.
There are few running backs who can claim Tony Pollard’s versatile level of weekly opportunity in both the rushing and receiving aspects of this Dallas offense. Per our FTN Utilization Report, Pollard’s 32.5% opportunity share ranks 11th among all running backs. He has seen 11 or more carries in four of the first five games, with last week’s blowout outlier as the only exception. Pollard has seen 22 targets in those five games, ranking fifth-most at the position.
The Chargers struggle to contain production from opposing running backs, both on the ground and in the air. Los Angeles ranks 12th-worst in fantasy points allowed and provides opposing RBs with the eighth-most targets per game. This game carries a 50.5 point total, and the Chargers are still hoping defensive end Joey Bosa can play at his usual level with a toe injury.
The Chargers rank 25th overall in defensive DVOA, including 28th against the run. Our FTNBets model projects Pollard for a whopping 84.96 rushing yards and an additional 30.15 receiving yards, which would easily clear this number. He has beat this number in three of the first five games and eclipsed 100 total yards seven times last season even with Ezekiel Elliott on the roster.
It’s difficult to assess how the Chargers will defend Pollard, which makes his rushing/receiving number even more enticing. Dallas is a 2.5-point favorite and will certainly need to rely heavily on Pollard to have a chance for a road victory in Los Angeles.
