Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
One of my favorite fantasy football narratives is the “Revenge Game.” NFL players are always prepared for their weekly matchups, but sometimes there is a little extra motivation. We should not underestimate the lingering frustrations of playing against a former team. Should there have been more playing time? More opportunities? Was a player surprised by being cut or traded? We have always seen situations where a player has a big game in their first opportunity against a former team. This can be a nice decision point if we are debating between two very similar players to put in our weekly DFS lineups.
Here is a list of every major “Revenge Game” opportunity for the upcoming 2023 season!
Note: I will not list repeat situations, only the first time the teams play (i.e., David Montgomery will face the Bears twice as a member of the Lions). Also, with only a few small-but-notable exceptions, these are only revenge games for players facing teams they played for in 2022; we aren’t digging through long-term history here.
Week 1
Damiere Byrd, WR, Carolina Panthers (at Atlanta)
The 30-year-old veteran wideout spent last season with the Falcons, posting just 13 receptions for 268 yards and two touchdowns. He is buried on the Carolina depth chart behind Adam Thielen, Terrace Marshall, Jonathan Mingo and DJ Chark, but if an injury occurs in the preseason he could find his way onto the field in Week 1. Damiere Byrd would absolutely be in the WR minimum on all sites.
Robert Tonyan, TE, Chicago Bears (vs. Green Bay)
Robert Tonyan spent five years in Green Bay, including an incredible 11 touchdowns on just 52 receptions in the 2020 season. He actually eclipsed that reception total by one catch last season, signing a one-year deal with the Bears, reuniting with Chicago offensive coordinator (and former Packers passing game coordinator) Luke Getsy. Tonyan is listed as the Bears TE2 behind Cole Kmet and will see the field on two-TE sets. He has sneaky touchdown upside in Week 1.
Week 2
Mike Gesicki, TE, New England Patriots (vs. Miami)
Mike Gesicki signed a one-year deal with the Patriots this offseason after playing his first five seasons with the Dolphins. He accumulated 231 receptions, 2,617 yards and 18 touchdowns, including three seasons of five or more scores. Gesicki was not a fit for Mike McDaniel’s offensive scheme, which demands blocking prowess from the tight end position. McDaniel even admitted late in the season he was failing to get the most out of the former second-round pick, who failed to even reach half of his 782 receiving yards from the 2021 season. With the tight end position being a huge part of the New England attack, this is certainly a Revenge Game worth noting.
Andy Dalton, QB, Carolina Panthers (vs. New Orleans)
This will probably be a moot point with rookie Bryce Young at quarterback, but if Andy Dalton plays, the narrative is alive and well. Veteran quarterback, at home, against a team in which he produced 18 touchdowns and a 66.7% completion percentage last season.
Week 3
Eric Saubert, TE, Miami Dolphins (vs. Denver)
Eric Saubert was signed by Miami to a one-year deal, filling a void left by the departure of Mike Gesicki and Hunter Long. Saubert played two years with the Broncos, and is coming off career-highs in receptions (24) and receiving yards (148). He is a superb blocker, which should get him on the field, opening up opportunities for an occasional DFS-winning touchdown.
Matt Nagy, Kansas City Chiefs (vs. Chicago)
Don’t underestimate the motivation for an offensive coordinator against a team that fired him. Nagy was Bears head coach for four seasons, earning AP NFL Coach of the Year in 2018. He was an integral part of the decision to draft Justin Fields in 2021 but was fired after Fields went just 2-8 as a starter in his rookie season. Nagy has been with Kansas City for the past two seasons, but he will now get a chance to call the plays in a Patrick Mahomes-led offense, at home, against his former team. Look for fireworks in this coaching revenge game spot.
Week 4
Trent Sherfield, WR, Buffalo Bills (vs. Miami)
Trent Sherfield is on a one-year “prove it” deal with the Bills and is currently listed as the Bills WR3. Buffalo continues to search for a solid WR2 to take pressure off All-Pro Stefon Diggs, and Sherfield joined the Bills after his most productive NFL season. He caught 30 passes for 417 yards and two touchdowns last year for Miami. He gets a quarterback upgrade in strong-armed Josh Allen, which will provide opportunities against a Dolphins secondary that allowed the fifth-most wide receiver targets per game last season, and will be without cornerback Jalen Ramsey.
Adam Thielen, WR, Carolina Panthers (vs. Minnesota)
It certainly will be an emotional game for Adam Thielen against his former Vikings teammates. Thielen had spent his entire nine-year NFL career with Minnesota before signing a three-year deal with the Panthers. He is a great Week 4 touchdown play, having caught 45 scores over the past five seasons. Per our FTN Fantasy Points Against Tool, the Vikings allowed the second-most PPR fantasy points per game to opposing wideouts last season.
DeAndre Carter, WR, Las Vegas Raiders (at LA Chargers)
A long shot here, but Carter did have his best NFL season with the Chargers last year, with 46 receptions, 538 receiving yards and three touchdowns. He is buried behind Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, Hunter Renfrow and possibly Keelan Cole, but it’s worth noting as a possible Week 4 lottery ticket.
Mecole Hardman, WR, New York Jets (vs. Kansas City)
The former Kansas City speedster (4.33 40-yard dash) had moderate success with the Chiefs, catching 151 passes and 16 touchdowns in four seasons. Mecole Hardman now joins the Jets and maintains the benefit of operating in an offense with another great quarterback in Aaron Rodgers. The Jets are committed to developing Hardman, making him a dangerous revenge game play on Sunday Night Football in Week 4.
Week 5
DJ Chark, WR, Carolina Panthers (at Detroit)
DJ Chark spent only one season in Detroit, but he restored his reputation as a big-play wideout. He tallied 30 receptions for 502 yards and three touchdowns but is returning from offseason ankle surgery. This is a deep, but unestablished wide receiver group, allowing room for Chark to ascend the depth chart quickly. His 4.34 speed on the indoor carpet of Ford Field allows for a cheap DFS play with massive upside.
Nathaniel Hackett, New York Jets (at Denver)
This game absorbed the revenge game narrative after these comments from Sean Payton about Hackett’s failed stint in Denver last season.
While we don’t have a player narrative here, Aaron Rodgers will certainly be fired up to face Payton’s defense with Hackett by his side.
Week 6
Taylor Heinicke, QB, Atlanta Falcons (vs. Washington)
Can Desmond Ridder hold the starting quarterback job for the Falcons? If so, nothing to see here. But if he can’t, look for Taylor Heinicke to put forth his best effort against a Washington team that he led for most of the past two seasons.
Jakobi Meyers, WR, Las Vegas Raiders (vs. New England)
Jakobi Meyers will face his old Patriots team in the stadium that produced this disastrous play from 2022. He posted 67 or more receptions in each of the past two seasons in New England.
Jamison Crowder, WR, New York Giants (vs. Buffalo)
Not a true revenge game, as Jamison Crowder only played four regular-season games for the Bills before breaking his ankle. He only posted six total receptions for Buffalo last year.
Week 7
Damien Harris, RB, Buffalo Bills (at New England)
The plodding Damien Harris produced 15 touchdowns for the Patriots during the 2021 season, and will now return as the thumper in an explosive Bills offense.
Scott Miller, WR, Atlanta Falcons (at Tampa Bay)
The 26-year-old shifty slot receiver returns to Tampa Bay as a member of the Falcons. Scott Miller saw his usage drop with the Buccaneers with the additions of wide receivers Russell Gage and Julio Jones and running back Rachaad White. Could Miller be extra motivated as a member of Tampa Bay’s divisional rival?
Allen Robinson, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers (at LA Rams)
Allen Robinson’s one season with the Rams was a huge disappointment, but was that a result of Matthew Stafford’s injury? Most fantasy players think Robinson is finished, but he is still only 29 years old. His 6-foot-2 frame is always a touchdown threat.
Week 8
No Revenge Games!
Week 9
Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins (at Kansas City)
Tyreek Hill was traded to Miami in March of 2022, and both teams were happy with the results. Kansas City are the reigning Super Bowl Champions, while Hill posted career-highs in receptions (119) and receiving yards (1,710). This will be Hill’s first battle against the Chiefs since that trade, and it will occur on the field he called home for six NFL seasons.
Darren Waller, TE, New York Giants (at Las Vegas)
Darren Waller was traded in the offseason, after becoming the highest-paid tight end in the NFL in September of 2022. The 30-year-old Waller has battled injuries the past two seasons but posted massive 1,110-plus receiving yardage campaigns in 2019 and 2020. Waller has drawn rave reviews in Giants camp so far.
Week 10
D’Onta Foreman, RB, Chicago Bears (at Carolina)
D’Onta Foreman has shown extreme resiliency by working his way back from a torn Achilles at the end of his rookie season. He shined after the Panthers trade of Christian McCaffrey, totaling 914 rushing yards and five touchdowns on a robust 4.5 yards per carry. Foreman is battling Khalil Herbert for the RB1 role in camp but is already splitting work with the starters. He signed a one-year deal with Chicago and will have much motivation to show Carolina they made a mistake by not resigning him despite five games with 100-plus total yards in 2022. (This will also be a revenge game for Bears backup QB P.J. Walker, should he see the field.)
Latavius Murray, RB, Buffalo Bills (vs. Denver)
Will Latavius Murray even make the Buffalo roster? James Cook and Damien Harris project to receive the majority of touches, making this an injury-dependent revenge game narrative.
Week 11
David Montgomery, RB, Detroit Lions (vs. Chicago)
The 26-year-old former Chicago running back signed a three-year deal worth $18 million with the Lions. David Montgomery went to a Bears rival, in a fantastic fantasy role behind an elite Detroit offensive line. Huge revenge game implications here for Monty.
Week 12
Mike White, QB, Miami Dolphins (at NY Jets)
Given Tua Tagovailoa’s injury history, it’s not a huge stretch to think Mike White could start this game for Miami. Given the Dolphins cadre of weapons, and White’s familiarity with the Meadowlands, this would be a big revenge spot.
Week 13
Jamaal Williams, RB, New Orleans Saints (vs. Detroit)
The fun-loving Jamaal Williams is hardly one to hold a grudge, but he certainly will be focused against a Lions team that benefited from his 17 rushing touchdowns in 2022.
Mike Boone, RB, Houston Texans (vs. Denver)
Can we speak it into existence? The Mike Boone truthers are a devout bunch, and just waiting for him to get his chance. His legendary potential spanned three seasons with Minnesota, and the last two with Denver.
Week 14
No Revenge Games!
Week 15
Irv Smith, TE, Cincinnati Bengals (vs. Minnesota)
One of the more interesting ones, as the Vikings will travel to Cincinnati in December, not an easy spot. While Minnesota was particularly giving to opposing fantasy tight ends (15th in PPR fantasy points allowed per game), Irv Smith will be highly motivated against a team that never really saw his full potential due to injuries. He is only on a one-year contract with Cincinnati.
Robert Woods, WR, Houston Texans (at Tennessee)
The veteran “Bobby Trees” played only one season with the Titans after five with the Rams and four with the Bills. Robert Woods played a full 17 games, but received poor quarterback play as starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill battled ankle injuries throughout the season. Should be a much better situation, even with a rookie quarterback in C.J. Stroud.
Rashaad Penny, RB, Philadelphia Eagles (at Seattle)
Rashaad Penny brought much excitement as a first-round pick from San Diego State in 2018, but he never found consistency in three seasons due to injuries. A tibia fracture ended last season after just five games, which followed a 2021 campaign that brought promise with three overall RB4 or better performances in Weeks 14-18. The RB1 spot in this Eagles offense is the gold standard, but can he earn the dominant share of touches in a crowded backfield?
JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, New England Patriots (vs. Kansas City)
It’s a great Week 15 Monday Night Football matchup with the Chiefs visiting Foxboro to battle the Patriots. JuJu Smith-Schuster was productive in just one season in Kansas City, leading all Chiefs wideouts with 78 receptions and 933 receiving yards. The Kansas City secondary allowed the second-highest TD rate to opposing wideouts last season per FTN Data, making Smith-Schuster a high revenge game target in Week 15.
Week 16
No Revenge Games!
Week 17
Elijah Moore, WR, Cleveland Browns (vs. NY Jets)
Big revenge game here, as Elijah Moore will certainly want to prove the Jets made a mistake by giving up on his immense talent after just two seasons. Moore was traded in March to Cleveland and has been earning high praise throughout training camp. He will certainly be very motivated in this home matchup against his old team, now tethered to a strong quarterback in Deshaun Watson.
Zach Pascal, WR, Arizona Cardinals (at Philadelphia)
Minimal motivation here after just one season with the Eagles. However, Zach Pascal is battling in a wide-open Cardinals depth chart after the departure of DeAndre Hopkins to Tennessee.
