SuperDraft NFL breakdown for Week 13

Welcome to the weekly breakdown for SuperDraft DFS Multiplier contests. 

Here’s a quick primer and strategy guide.

Each week, I’ll provide a slate overview and recommended plays at each position.

Week 12 Recap

Here is the winning lineup from SuperDraft’s largest GPP, the Red Zone, alongside the winning lineup from the $100 Gunslinger GPP.

One commonality among winning lineups last week was the combo of Joe Mixon and Leonard Fournette – the latter accounting for four of the five touchdowns that Tampa Bay scored. Red Zone GPP winner BrandonAdams won the contest by seven points over the second place finisher, getting it done with a Steelers/Bengals game stack including Ben Roethlisberger, Diontae Johnson amd Pat Freiermuth with Tee Higgins and Mixon. An optimal play of a 1.35x Cordarrelle Patterson (28.5 base points, 38.48 with the multiplier) put the final nail in the coffin of his competitors. Adams took fifth and 10th place as well.

The Gunslinger winner (BadlandsBears) only needed 195.51 points to take down the $2,500 first place prize. He got there despite the busted performance from Cam Newton (10.63 points) and Elijah Moore’s 10.95. Deebo Samuel carried a roster rate of nearly 50% in this contest, compared to 36.2% in the Red Zone.

For the 11th time in 12 weeks this season, the winning lineup used a running back in the flex.

Week 13 Preview

Here are the primary GPP contests to consider entering this weekend:

Eleven games on the main slate with four of these games in the late window (4 p.m. ET). The only two contests with an over/under greater than 50 points are Buccaneers/Falcons and Chargers/Bengals (both at 50.5 as of Thursday evening). The Bucs carry the highest implied team total (30.75) and the second-largest point spread (favored by 11). The Rams (hosting the Jaguars) are the only other team with an implied team total over (30.25) and have the highest point spread advantage (-13). The Rams and Jaguars happen to play at the league’s fastest paces (Rams first, Jaguars second). 

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Quarterbacks

Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams

The matchup and projected pace of play sets up well for Matthew Stafford, who can easily lead the position in base points this week. It is a get-right spot for the Rams if there ever was one, as they have lost three consecutive contests. Stafford has thrown multiple touchdown passes in eight of his 11 games and has thrown for over 300 yards in two of them. The Rams might be without starting running back Darrell Henderson (thigh), as he has yet to practice this week.

Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers

Justin Herbert will likely be one of the most popular options at QB with his 25% multiplier bonus and one of the slate’s highest totals. This matchup lines up to potentially be a tight affair (three-point spread) where Herbert may be forced to air it out as per usual. The Bengals ranked ninth in DVOA run defense but 19th against the pass. The 254.8 passing yards per game that the Bengals allow is the league’s eighth highest mark.

Jalen Hurts (Philadelphia Eagles) and Lamar Jackson (Baltimore Ravens) usually provide high point floors with their rushing ability and are both in the mix for both cash games and GPPs. Jackson is coming off consecutive poor outings (13.4 and 16.42 base points) but has hit between 32 and 40 three times this season. Shockingly, Jackson has just two rushing scores this season, and they both came way back in Week 2. Hurts hasn’t thrown a passing touchdown in two games but has run in multiple scores three times this season. Recency bias might keep both of their roster rates under 10%, but I’d consider heavily deploying both in tournaments this week. Pair Jackson with overdue wideout Marquise Brown, who looked healthier last week, catching 8-of-10 targets.

Tua Tagovailoa (Miami Dolphins) will be one of the more popular higher-multiplier quarterbacks, especially paired with rookie stud Jaylen Waddle. This may sound crazy, but I’d consider Lions’ quarterback Jared Goff in this matchup against the Vikings, who rank 28th in DVOA pass defense and have an incredibly putrid secondary. I’m interested in a 1.3x Derek Carr (Las Vegas Raiders) as well but Washington’s secondary has been playing tighter of late and there’s little multiplier difference between Carr and some of the studs. Though his stack targets are very obvious – wideout Hunter Renfrow and tight end Foster Moreau if Darren Waller misses the game as expected.

Favorite Plays: Matthew Stafford, Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert
Low-Percentage Gut Play: Jared Goff

Running Backs

Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts

There isn’t much to think about when the league’s best runner in Jonathan Taylor faces one of the league’s worst defenses in a game where the Colts are road favorites (-7) and with a high total (49). The Texans allow the second-most rushing yards per game (135.6) and have let in the second-most rushing scores (17) this season.

Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Mixon has been an absolute beast lately and the second-most effective fantasy running back over the last month. Just take a look at his game logs and SuperDraft points of late:

• Week 12 vs. PIT: 28-165-2, 4-4-(-2)-0: 32.3 points
• Week 11 vs. LV: 30-123-2: 26.3 points
• Week 9 vs. CLE: 13-64-2, 5-5-46-0: 25.5 points
• Week 8 vs. NYJ: 14-33-1, 5-4-58-1: 23.1 points

Now he lines up to face the porous Chargers’ run defense. A unit that allows the most rushing yards per game (145.3) as well as the fourth-most SuperDraft points to opposing runners (25.6). Fade the masses at your own risk as Mixon will have a roster rate over 25% in the Red Zone GPP. The NFL is a wild place though and it’s always possible that he isn’t involved in any of the points that the Bengals produce. It’s just not very likely.

Leonard Fournette, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

It’s interesting how most of us (myself included) looked past Leonard Fournette in last week’s matchup. Overlooking him was mostly a product of his recent mediocre stat lines and the fact that the Colts were much more susceptible to getting beat by the pass. It would be wildly surprising if this inept Falcons’ offense was able to keep pace with the Bucs this week. Sure, anything could happen but betting on the Falcons to get crushed is a wise assumption. Fournette might have to do his damage early, though. If the Bucs get off to a big lead, Fournette could cede carries to Ronald Jones or even Ke’Shawn Vaughn in the second half. Fournette is a solid cash play but if we’re going for the gusto in GPPs, my lean is to pivot to some alternate options.

Elijah Mitchell, San Francisco 49ers

The rookie won over this backfield long ago and has done the same with fantasy players’ hearts – at least those who picked up him season-long FAAB and have been playing him in DFS. Elijah Mitchell has been a workhorse, seeing 27 carries in each of his last two games, averaging 112 rushing yards per game. No team has seen more rush attempts against them than the Seattle Seahawks (350 total, 31.9 per game) and the Niners will be without hybrid runner/receiver Deebo Samuel Sunday. Fire up Mitchell as one of your highest exposed backs in GPPs, even ahead of Fournette.

The fact that Alexander Mattison (Minnesota Vikings) has a reasonable multiplier (1.3x) means that his rostered rate in tournaments won’t be overwhelming. This matchup against the Lions’ run defense (29th in DVOA) sets up splendidly and game flow may dictate us including him in our player pool this week. James Conner (Arizona Cardinals) is in a similar position, and fresh off a bye week. Even if QB Kyler Murray returns, there’s no reason to believe he’ll be scrambling much. We’re all familiar with what a beast Conner has been in the red zone this season and there’s no reason why he can’t finish among the top tier of RB point-scorers this week. I’m also intrigued by Washington’s Antonio Gibson at a fresh 1.4x multiplier and will also include Sony Michel in all builds if Darrell Henderson misses this game. Miles Sanders will be under-rostered for this matchup against the team allowing the most FP to running backs (33.1) because the fantasy community simply doesn’t trust how head coach Nick Sirianni deploys him. Sanders is trending in a positive direction following a minor ankle/foot issue last week while fellow backs Jordan Howard (knee) and Boston Scott (illness) haven’t practiced yet this week. If both miss this game, Sanders will launch high up my list of favorite plays at the position this week.

Favorite Plays: Jonathan Taylor, Elijah Mitchell, Joe Mixon, Sony Michel (if Henderson sits)
Low-Percentage Gut Play: Miles Sanders

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Wide Receivers

Terry McLaurin, Washington Football Team

Terry McLaurin is the epitome of GPP play, but I feel confident in him as a core play in my lineups in a game I’m expecting to be among the highest scoring this weekend. We have a two-point spread (Raiders favored) and a 49.5 Vegas total where both offenses play at a faster pace in neutral situations (scores within seven points). He will tango with shutdown corner Casey Hayward Jr. on some routes but should also have the pleasure of running on Brandon Facyson, who is among the worst-graded corners in the league. McLaurin hasn’t seen less than seven targets in a game since Week 1. 

Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams

It’s funny the expectations we have when 96 yards on seven receptions just isn’t “good enough” for us. That’s what Cooper Kupp produced in Week 12, his third straight game without a touchdown. Kupp has seen between 10 and 11 targets in each of those games and remains the position’s highest scorer this season. Jags’ fifth-year corner Rudy Ford is greatly overmatched in this matchup where the Rams plan to right their ship. Stafford and Kupp is my favorite QB-WR pairing on the slate.

Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings

A smash matchup for Justin Jefferson and the Vikings as they take on a Lions’ defense that ranks 29th in DvP to wide receivers this season. Jefferson has seen an average of 10 targets over his last three games and put up a 7-124-0 line on eight targets when they faced the Lions back in Week 4. The only concern is that Adam Thielen be stealin’ red-zone targets and Mattison gets the goal-line carries. But the matchup is much too cushy for JJeff to not end up among the highest scorers on this slate. I’m expecting him to be one of the only wideouts to top 20 base points this Sunday.

Hunter Renfrow, Las Vegas Raiders

This Washington/Las Vegas game is very stack-worthy, and the preferred target on the Raiders’ side of the ball is Hunter Renfrow. He set his career-high in receiving yards in a game on Thanksgiving (134). With Henry Ruggs long out of the picture and Darren Waller likely sidelined, we know exactly who will be buttering Carr’s bread. Carr has targeted Renfrow three times in the last four games and this Washington defense allows the fourth-most SuperDraft points per game (32.8) to enemy wideouts.

Others to Consider

• Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Tied for the league lead among wideouts in touchdowns (10) and will see plenty of Atlanta CB Foster Moreau, who he has a five-inch height and 30-pound weight advantage over. Big Mike dropped a 5-75-2 line when these two teams faced each other in Week 2.
• Marquise Brown, Baltimore Ravens – It’s possible Brown is overlooked this weekend given all the fabulous wide receiver matchups at reasonable multipliers this weekend. The Steelers’ defense is a shell of its former self and has been getting thwarted of late (6-114-1 to Tee Higgins last week, nearly 200 combined yards to Keenan Allen and Mike Williams in Week 11). The Steelers serve up the eighth-most SuperDraft points to the position (31.1).
• Russell Gage, Atlanta Falcons – A bit of a Hail Mary but still someone to be considered as a bringback on Tampa stacks because of his 1.75x multiplier. Gage has seen 15 targets over his last two games and could be the primary beneficiary of extra coverage on Kyle Pitts.

Favorite Plays: Cooper Kupp, Hunter Renfrow, Terry McLaurin, Marquise Brown, Justin Jefferson
Low-Percentage Gut Play: Mike Evans

Tight Ends

Foster Moreau, Las Vegas Raiders

Foster Moreau will be a chalky play if Waller is out, and we should all be on board with it for an offense whose target tree is quite truncated. Wideout Bryan Edwards is essentially invisible in this offense, as Moreau and Renfrow will be Carr’s primary targets. The last game Waller missed in full, Moreau stepped up with a 6-60-1 line. 

George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers 

Kittle is the top overall play on the slate, especially with Deebo Samuel set to miss the contest. Wideout Brandon Aiyuk and RB Elijah Mitchell could ruin this play, but it’s hard to not be excited about a 15% point bonus for Big George. 

T.J. Hockenson, Detroit Lions

T.J. Hockenson should see some extra targets with stud RB D’Andre Swift on the shelf this weekend. It’s been a wildly inconsistent season for Hock but that’s what happens when you get the major downgrade at QB from Stafford to Goff. Last week, Hock finally scored his first TD since Week 2 and hopes to build on the minor success by ending Week 13 as one of the position’s top scorers. My preferred runback on the Vikings’ stacks.

Favorite Plays: George Kittle, Foster Moreau
Super Low-Percentage Gut Play: Mike Gesicki

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Favorite Game Stacks

1. Washington Football Team/Las Vegas Raiders

Derek Carr + Hunter Renfrow + Foster Moreau + Terry McLaurin or Antonio Gibson

2. Los Angeles Chargers/Cincinnati Bengals

Justin Herbert + Keenan Allen + 1 or 2 of Ja’Marr Chase, Joe Mixon, Tee Higgins 

3. Los Angeles Rams onslaught

Matthew Stafford + Cooper Kupp + Sony Michel (if Henderson is out)

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers onslaught

Tom Brady + Leonard Fournette + 1 of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Rob Gronkowski

5. Baltimore Ravens/Pittsburgh Steelers

Lamar Jackson + Marquise Brown + Diontae Johnson

Secondary Correlations

1. Joe Mixon (CIN) + Keenan Allen (LAC)
2. Justin Jefferson (MIN) + Alexander Mattison (MIN) + T.J. Hockenson (DET)
3. Hunter Renfrow (LV) + Terry McLaurin (WAS)
4. Cooper Kupp (LAR) + Sony Michel (LAR)
5. Elijah Mitchell (SF) + 1 of DK Metcalf or Tyler Lockett (SEA)