SuperDraft NFL breakdown for Week 10

Welcome to the weekly breakdown for SuperDraft DFS Multiplier contests. 

Here’s a quick primer and strategy guide.

Each week, I’ll provide a slate overview and recommended plays at each position.

Week 9 Recap

Here is the winning lineup from SuperDraft’s largest GPP, the Red Zone, alongside my best of 33 that finished 58 of 6,669.

Hard to argue against the idea that the 2021 Week 9 DFS slate the grossest that we’ve seen in years. It took under 200 total points to take down the Red Zone among 7,000-plus contestants and that take-down was employed by none other than our very own FantasyGuruDrew.

Our guy Drew not only took down the first-place prize of $25,000 but also scored an additional $12,000 for coming in fourth and fifth overall. 

Not only was it the lowest GPP-winning total (by a wide margin) all season, but Drew did so at the lowest average team multiplier (1.36x) as well as a ghastly low 9% average team roster rate. Despite a sub-10-point outing from Adam Thielen, Drew hit the right pieces of the Chargers-Eagles game with a Justin Herbert–Jared Cook–Keenan Allen double-stack and DeVonta Smith bringback. Giants’ running back Devontae Booker was his highest-percentage rostered player (28.7%), the only guy on his team over 15%.

My best squad used a Ravens’ double-stack (Lamar Jackson/Marquise Brown/Mark Andrews) with Justin Jefferson on the opposite side. I ended up nailing one side of my LAC-PHI correlation (Eagles’ DeVonta Smith) but got burned by the other (Austin Ekeler: 10.67 FP) as well as a busted Ezekiel Elliott at a chalky 28%.

Below are the average team multipliers, winning point total and average roster percentage of the last six weeks of Red Zone GPP winners. Week 9 was likely a massive low-end outlier. The Week 10 slate does have plenty of mismatches (large point spreads), but my educated assumption is that this week’s winning score will be closer to the typical 250 than last week’s sub-200.

Week 10 Preview

Here are the three primary GPP entries to consider multi-entering this week:

We get 12 games on the Week 10 slate, with three in the afternoon window. Seven games on this slate currently have point spreads of seven or greater. The Buffalo Bills are 12.5-point road favorites against the New York Jets. The Indianapolis Colts are favored by 10.5 over their division rivals, the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Dallas Cowboys and Tampa Bay Buccaneers are close to 10-point favorites against their opponents – respectively, the Atlanta Falcons and Washington Football Team. In the afternoon group, the Arizona Cardinals are heavily favored (10.5) over the Carolina Panthers after opening at -6 before the Sam Darnold-to-Phillip Walker change.

Three teams have implied totals over 30 points (DAL – 32, BUF – 30.5, TB – 30.5) with two of those teams involved in games we expect to be popular because of over/unders greater than 50 (ATL-DAL: 54.5, TB-WAS: 51.5). We should expect the Minnesota Vikings and Los Angeles Chargers game to be popular among SuperDrafters since it poses the slate’s second-highest total (53) with a tight, three-point spread (Chargers are home favorites).

If Dalvin Cook somehow misses the game because of these newly surfaced allegations, Alexander Mattison (1.55x) would be uber-chalk. Browns’ running back D’Ernest Johnson (1.55x) may be popular as well if Nick Chubb (Reserve/COVID-19 List) is not activated in time. 

High multiplier quarterbacks may not be as popular this week after Jordan Love’s miserable outing last week but 1.75x Trevor Siemian could see low double-digits in a matchup against the Tennessee Titans. We likely won’t see a 1.75x Carolina Panthers’ fill-in Phillip Walker in too many lineups with a tough draw against the Arizona Cardinals. 

Finally, tight end multipliers seem to have been scaled down towards the low end. Though Pittsburgh Steelers’ rookie TE Pat Freiermuth’s multiplier was not adjusted for his two-TD Monday Night Football performance so expect him to be 30% or higher at his 1.95x multiplier.

Quarterbacks

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• Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

A week where mid- to high-multiplier quarterbacks don’t stand out and our fantasy points ciabatta will likely be buttered with the studs. Tom Brady stands out from the pack fresh off his bye as he leads the position in YPG (331.3), touchdowns (25) while his opponent – the Washington Football Team – allow the most SuperDraft PPG (27.1) to enemy quarterbacks. The only concern is that some of Tampa’s scoring may come via Leonard Fournette and the run game since Antonio Brown and Chris Godwin may be sidelined. 

• Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys

Dak’s first game back from injury and bye did not go as planned as the ‘Boys were shockingly slaughtered by the Denver Broncos. This Week 10 matchup with the Atlanta Falcons should be one of this weekend’s highest-paced affairs. It’s a good spot to get Dak back on track to his multiple touchdown ways. It’s the only game with a total over 54 and the Cowboys have the slate’s highest implied total (32). Atlanta allows the eight most SuperDraft PPG to quarterbacks and their 17 passing touchdowns allowed this season is tied for the third-highest mark.

• Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills

Allen’s 1x multiplier may keep his roster rate low but he needs to be in the mix of GPP builds this week. The Jets have mostly been thwarted by running backs (36.5 SDP against – league’s highest mark) but opposing quarterbacks have rushed for the least total yards against them (60). Worth noting that the Jets haven’t faced any true rushing QBs this season yet. In two games last season, Allen averaged 12.5 rush attempts and 59 rushing yards against the Jets, throwing for 300-plus in both contests.

GPP and MME

• Trevor Siemian, New Orleans Saints

On our radar because of his high multiplier though certainly a GPP-only play given his potential range of outcomes. If RB Alvin Kamara doesn’t play, Siemian becomes even more intriguing due to the likelihood of the Saints having to play from behind and Siemian having to throw the ball 40-plus times. It will be difficult for SuperDrafters insert him into lineups because of our tendency to pair with fellow receivers. In his case, landing on the optimal pairing is akin to drawing blood from a stone. Tre’Quan Smith, Deonte Harris and Marquez Callaway are all between 1.75x and 1.85x but our odds of hitting on the correct one is low. Nevertheless, mixing Siemian in with some of his high-multiplier wideouts should be dedicated to a small portion of lineup builds of those making the 150 max.

• Carson Wentz, Indianapolis Colts

The most tantalizing part of the Wentz play is his multiplier (1.45x). But the Colts are massive (-10.5) favorites, and the offense may run through running back Jonathan Taylor yet again. We can dedicate 3-5% of MME builds for Wentz – Michael Pittman but focusing on studs like Brady, Prescott and Allen should be our priority. Oh, and he’s also missing the birth of his kid for this game, so he better perform.

Keep both Russell Wilson (Seattle Seahawks) and Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay Packers) on your radars. Once confirmed that they will be active, expect to see them both added to the player pool, likely priced in the 1.15x to 1.2x range.

Favorite Plays: Tom Brady, Dak Prescott, Josh Allen

Low Percentage Gut Play: Russell Wilson

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Running Backs

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• Dalvin Cook, Minnesota Vikings

I don’t believe Cook’s incident coming to the public’s attention this week will affect his Week 10 status or playing time, but anything is possible. If Cook is out there, he will be grinding against a Chargers’ run defense that allows more rushing yards (161.6 per game) than any team in football – and by a wide margin with the Texans (136.9) allowing the next most. Workload shouldn’t be affected much even if the Vikings are playing from behind. A fantastic smash spot for one of the league’s most dangerous runners. 

• Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers

Despite a lower multiplier than ever before, Harris should be a popular play this Sunday. His minor injury should be monitored though it shouldn’t affect his playing time and insane volume. Harris and Bengals’ Joe Mixon lead all backs in rush attempts (150, but that excludes the injured Derrick Henry who has 219). Harris is also the only running back playing over 80% of his team’s snaps (85.8%). He ranks second at the position in targets (52) and receptions (40) and has now scored in five straight. Lions allow the second most SD points (29) to running backs.

• Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts

The Jaguars are one of only five teams allowing less than four yards per carry to enemy backs but are tied for the fifth-most rushing touchdowns allowed (10). None of it really matters to the man many consider football’s best pure runner now that Derrick Henry is sidelined. Taylor averages 5.9 YPC (second behind only Nick Chubb’s 6.0) as he has averaged over 108 rushing yards per game over his last six. Taylor has scored eight touchdowns over that span, and this projected gamescript lines up for him to smash yet again. It’s truly a tough call between this trio if you’re looking to just play two of them. I would expect Taylor to be a more popular play than Cook because of Cook’s off-field drama.

• Michael Carter, New York Jets

It’s a simple math equation: We’ve got a starting running back who sees the lion’s share of carries who is also usually involved heavily as a pass-catcher (18 targets in his last three games). The key to this equation is his ultra-high 1.75x multiplier which will make him incredibly chalky this week. In his last four games, Carter has scored the following SD base points: 9.1, 27.7, 12.4, 13.3. My 13.5-point projection assumes 65 all-purpose yards, two receptions and a touchdown. If you expect more production out of him, make sure he is in most of your lineups. Just note that no team allows less SD points than the Bills (14.1).

GPP and MME

• D’Andre Swift, Detroit Lions
• James Conner, Arizona Cardinals
• Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers
• Cordarrelle Patterson, Atlanta Falcons
• Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers

From this group, expect James Conner and Cordarrelle Patterson to be the most popular. The case for Conner is likely positive game flow as well as workload and red-zone prowess (tied for league lead in rushing touchdowns with 10). Patterson has seen a proper multiplier reduction but will still be utilized by at least 15 percent of the field. Listed as a GPP play but I would consider him for cash as well.

D’Andre Swift and Austin Ekeler won’t be as popular this week. Swift mostly due to the matchup against the Steelers and Ekeler’s low roster rate due to overreaction to last week’s subpar outing. Swift should still be considered in a one-for-one mini correlation with Harris, Diontae Johnson or Pat Freiermuth. Ekeler can be used for deeper GPPs and MIN-LAC game stacks.

Let’s please not forget about Christian McCaffrey. How often do you get the opportunity to roster the best fantasy running back of the last three seasons for under 10%? Phillip Walker starting at quarterback and concerns about his workload will keep him from being popular, but he could easily be a slate-breaker and score twice.

Depending upon Week 10 status of teammates:

• D’Ernest Johnson, Cleveland Browns
• Brandon Bolden, New England Patriots
• Alexander Mattison, Minnesota Vikings

D’Ernest Johnson skyrockets to top-four roster percentage in Red Zone GPPs if Nick Chubb is ruled out. Johnson would have quite the workload, but the Patriots are no slouches against the run. Chubb’s inactive status would likely have a direct effect on Jets’ Michael Carter as folks would likely swap him out to get Johnson in. Call me contrarian, but I’ll likely have less Johnson than the field and pray he doesn’t get into the end zone or have a huge game. 

If Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson are not cleared from concussion protocols before Sunday, Brandon Bolden will split snaps with J.J. Taylor, and both will go heavily overlooked despite their multipliers set at the 2x max. Make a note for yourself to consider them for lineups on Sunday morning if Harris and Stevenson are out. Alexander Mattison is only in play if Cook sits, in which case he would be super chalk.

Favorite Plays: Dalvin Cook, Jonathan Taylor, Najee Harris, Michael Carter, James Conner

Low-Percentage Gut Play: Christian McCaffrey

Wide Receivers

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• Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

If Chris Godwin plays, Evans will likely fall in on about 8-12% of Red Zone GPP lineups and if Godwin is inactive, Evans will be over 18%. I don’t believe Brady-Evans combos will be that popular this week, so I hope I’m right and plan to be over the field with him. Whether Godwin plays or not, Evans is my favorite wideout on this slate.

• CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys

Lamb had a disappointing stat line (2-9-0) against the Broncos last week, but he saw nine targets and was limited most of the practice week with an ankle injury. A great bounceback spot against the Falcons’ putrid secondary that allows nearly one touchdown per game to LWR’s per FTN’s Advanced DVP Tool.

• Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers

Should be a popular play with fellow wideout Chase Claypool banged up. But what are we really doing with this DET-PIT game? Everyone loves Diontae, Najee and Freiermuth, but no one will play Ben Roethlisberger or want to stack this game. My recommendation would be not to stack it. Just pick a side between WR Johnson or RB Harris and feel free to sprinkle in Freiermuth unless you prefer to fade the chalk and pivot.

• DK Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks

Anyone who tells you they are the Seattle WR Whisperer is full of it. Your guess is as good as mine whether it will be a DK Metcalf Game or a Tyler Lockett Game. One trend we should all be aware of is that the two of them rarely go off in the same game. The dynamic duo have only scored 15-plus fantasy points each twice this season (once with Geno Smith) and twice all of last season. In a GPP with less than 10,000 entries, there is very reason to go with a full Russell Wilson/Tyler Lockett/DK Metcalf stack, and it’s best to just pick a lane. We should keep tabs on Metcalf’s foot issue that has limited him this week as that could lean us in Lockett’s direction. I’m going the other way and will be heavier on the Metcalf side as he is much more likely to provide two scores.

• Michael Pittman, Indianapolis Colts

Fellow wideout T.Y. Hilton returned to full practice, but his presence Sunday should only help Colts alpha Michael Pittman to avoid double teams. Over the last month, Pittman is sixth in receiving yards at the position (290) and tied for second with four receiving touchdowns. He is one of seven wideouts to see over 90 percent of offensive team snaps over the last month and faces a Jaguars’ secondary that ranks among the league’s worst. Best of all, his multiplier is once again in the mid-range, which means we won’t be the only ones rostering him.

GPP and MME

• Stefon Diggs/Emmanuel Sanders, Buffalo Bills
• A.J. Brown, Tennessee Tians
• Terry McLaurin, Washington Football Team
• Mike Williams, Los Angeles Chargers
• Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks
• Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos

From this group, I would expect A.J. Brown to be the highest rostered, especially with Derrick Henry no longer in the picture and Brown’s reasonable 1.3x multiplier. The Saints allow the sixth-most SD points to wideouts (35.3) and Brown should feast yet again. Can play him solo if you don’t feel comfortable with the Trevor Siemian stack using him as a bringback. I’ll be going back to the well with Stefon Diggs after continuous disappointing outings as we know an explosive outing is just around the corner. Just be careful rostering too many low-multiplier guys if you’re running with a Josh Allen/Stefon Diggs combo. Also plan to go back to Mike Williams as he hopes to capture his early season success. The Vikings have allowed seven wide receivers to surpass 100 yards through the air this season, including both CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper just two weeks ago.

High-Multiplier Options

• Tyler Johnson, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
• Russell Gage, Atlanta Falcons
• Donovan Peoples-Jones, Cleveland Browns
• Elijah Moore, New York Jets

Tyler Johnson in the mix if both Chris Godwin and Rob Gronkowski are inactive. Atlanta slot man Russell Gage is a sneaky bring-back in a Cowboys’ stack, especially with that tantalizing multiplier. I likely won’t roll with too much Elijah Moore despite his recent success but will consider some of Cleveland’s DPJ as a one-off in GPPs.

Favorite Plays: Mike Evans, CeeDee Lamb, Diontae Johnson, Stefon Diggs, A.J. Brown, Michael Pittman

Low-Percentage Gut Play: Mike Williams

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Tight Ends

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• Pat Freiermuth, Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers have a fantastic matchup, but key members of the offense are banged up as they come off a short week following a Monday Night Football grindfest with the Bears. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger hasn’t practiced yet as he deals with shoulder, pectoral and hip injuries (albeit minor) while rookie running back Najee Harris was limited in Thursday’s practice with a foot injury. Harris, Freiermuth and Diontae Johnson all look like strong plays ‘on paper’ but I wonder if folks will simply auto-click on Freiermuth because of his high multiplier and not give the TE position much thought this week. I’m considering a fade on the rookie tight end who we assume will be popular.

• Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons

Pitts and Cordarrelle Patterson are the 1A/1B in Atlanta’s offense and we must absolutely consider bringing back our Prescott stacks with one of them. It is doubtful that Cowboys’ stout CB Trevon Diggs is on Pitts duty, since Diggs is mostly a perimeter defender and has only popped in on slot coverage on around 12% of snaps this season. Projected game script here sets up for a smash for either Pitts or CPatt with the former much less desirable because of his 1x multiplier.

• Dan Arnold, Jacksonville Jaguars

No touchdowns this season, but Arnold has averaged five receptions on 7.5 targets per game over his last four, topping 60 yards three times. With D.J. Chark out for the year, he is essentially their only target of great reach and height and could be continued to be peppered the ball. Rookie QB Trevor Lawrence is dealing with an ankle injury but should suit up on Sunday. Arnold’s matchup against the Colts isn’t horrible. The Colts rank 27th in TE DVOA defense and allow the third most SD points (13.9) to the position.

• Noah Fant, Denver Broncos

Fant has been activated off the COVID-19 list and should play this Sunday. Just one ball to go around for this super talented crew of wideouts and running backs but Fant is a nice spot facing as his opponent this week (Philadelphia Eagles) allow the most SD points per game (15.9) to the position.

GPP and MME

• Dalton Schultz, Dallas Cowboys
• Tyler Conklin, Minnesota Vikings
• Ricky Seals-Jones, Washington Football Team
• T.J. Hockenson, Detroit Lions
• Adam Trautman, New Orleans Saints

No one to get overly excited about here in this group but all these guys will be sub-10%. Slightly interested in Dalton Schultz at his mid-priced multiplier for Dak stacks and will go right back to Minnesota’s Tyler Conklin as one of my primary Freiermuth pivots. The main issues with Conklin are that he rarely sees red zone targets and he has only topped 10 SD base points once this season. We should have interest in MIN-LAC stacks though, so mixing Conklin in at low exposure could end up paying off. He has averaged six targets per game over his last four and faces a Chargers’ defense that shuts down opposing wideouts but is fantasy friendly to tight ends. 

Ricky Seals-Jones is a cheaper bringback than Terry McLaurin on Brady stacks. Adam Trautman is an out-there play, but the Saints have increased his involvement lately. Over the last four weeks he ranks fourth at the position in snap rate (86.6%) and has seen 13 targets in his last two games. Far from a core play but someone I wouldn’t be shocked to see find the end zone this week and land in the optimal lineup at his 2x multiplier. It’s very possible in a slate without Travis Kelce, Darren Waller, George Kittle, Mark Andrews and Tyler Higbee.

Favorite Plays: Kyle Pitts, Dan Arnold, Pat Freiermuth (I guess)

Super Low-Percentage Gut Play: Adam Trautman

Favorite Game Stacks, and Secondary Correlations

1. DAL/ATL

Dak Prescott + CeeDee Lamb (+ Kyle Pitts or Cordarrelle Patterson), can add Dalton Schultz, Amari Cooper (1.25x) or Michael Gallup (not yet listed) if you are feeling frisky

1. TB/WAS

Tom Brady + Mike Evans (+ Ricky Seals-Jones or Terry McLaurin), consider Tyler Johnson for a game stack or Leonard Fournette (1.25x) for all the perceived Bucs’ TD equity

1. MIN/LAC

Justin Herbert + Mike Williams or Keenan Allen (1.15x) or Austin Ekeler (+ Dalvin Cook)

1. SEA/GB

Russell Wilson + DK Metcalf or Tyler Lockett (+ Davante Adams)

or Aaron Rodgers + Davante Adams (+ Metcalf or Lockett)

1. IND onslaught

Carson Wentz + Michael Pittman + Jonathan Taylor (+ Dan Arnold)

Secondary Correlations

• Mike Evans (TB) + Ricky Seals-Jones (WAS)
• Mike Williams (LAC) + Dalvin Cook (MIN)
• CeeDee Lamb (DAL) + Kyle Pitts (ATL)
• Davante Adams (GB) + DK Metcalf or Tyler Lockett (SEA)
• Stefon Diggs or Emmanuel Sanders (BUF) + Michael Carter or Elijah Moore (NYJ)
• Christian McCaffrey (CAR) + James Conner or Christian Kirk (ARI)
• D’Ernest Johnson or Donovan Peoples-Jones (CLE) + Brandon Bolden (NE) – if Harris/Stevenson are out

See you all Sunday at 11 a.m. ET for the SuperDraft super show with me, host Zac Graham and Javi Prellezo.