NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Each week, I’ll review my single entry lineup, as well as a couple others. I will also track success rates throughout the season. The criteria for the other lineups to make the article (and tracking) will be > 10% of my overall investment. This week, that includes:
- SE lineup
- Early Only SE
- Afternoon Only SE
The goal here is to hold myself accountable for the decisions I make while also helping to provide a blueprint for long term success in GPPs.
Throughout the year, I’ll emphasize the top 10% and top 1% hit rates. While profit/loss is at the mercy of significant variance at the top of tournaments, these hit rates stabilize much faster and can therefore paint a stronger picture of our performance.
I had a potentially monstrous Sunday ruined by the Miles Sanders injury. It likely kept me from cashing in my SE and Afternoon Only lineup, but more importantly – I needed just 17 points from him for $20k in MME. Oof!
The SE
Every choice we make can be categorized in one of four groups:
- Bad Process & Bad Outcome
- Bad Process & Good Outcome
- Good Process & Bad Outcome
- Good Process & Good Outcome
We’ll begin with #1:
Bad Process & Bad Outcome
N/A
Bad Process & Good Outcome
N/A
Good Process & Bad Outcome
I loved Sanders as a play, but also because I hated the overall RB landscape. D’Andre Swift ended up the RB1 with just 28 DK points, so that was pretty much spot on. Sanders was featured on the opening drive in a way we hadn’t yet seen under Nick Sirianni, so the injury was pretty devastating.
I didn’t love Jones, but again – the entire RB landscape was gross, so I felt like Jones had the upside to be a slate-winner at low ownership. The game script was also great for him after five receptions in the opening two drives. The rest of the game was a colossal disappointment, but I think the underwhelming RB production as a whole and Jones’ ownership shows why he was a solid play as the final piece in my lineup.
Not much to say here. The targets and air yards were there and it was a fairly efficient day for quarterback Matt Ryan. It’s pretty shocking that he and Ridley didn’t connect more, but the touchdown salvaged his day to some degree.
Good Process & Good Outcome
Jalen Hurts – Dallas Goedert – Hunter Renfrow
The Sanders injury also hurt this stack, but they hit nonetheless. Hurts is as close to automatic as it gets in fantasy football and Goedert flashed his big play upside. More play-action opportunities like the 34-yard strike on the opening drive could have put him in TE1 territory for the week. Similarly, if the game was closer, the Raiders would have kept throwing, and throwing successfully to Renfrow.
Gesicki is a WR that we get to play at TE, as he’s consistently split out wide or in the slot. He was outstanding and is the Dolphins’ obvious #1 in the red zone.
Early Only SE
Thank you to A.J. Brown, Mike Gesicki, and Ja’Marr Chase for carrying this lineup to profit. I still can’t believe the main thing that sunk this line was Kansas City’s inability to score and force Tennessee to continue to try and actually do things.
It was also extremely disappointing to watch AJ Dillon fumble away what should have been a full drive of his to ice the game. I loved Dillon’s correlation with the Green Bay defense and also liked the inverse correlation he gave this lineup with my main SE, as I felt like one of the more likely ways for Aaron Jones to fail was for Dillon to vulture a TD and/or steal more work than expected.
Afternoon Only SE
I loved the Las Vegas side of things and I still think this stack could have exploded if Sanders stayed healthy and helped Philly keep Vegas in a passing script. Ugh, it really is the worst when a single injury derails so much of a Sunday (including as an Eagles fan!).
Takeaways
It was great to have some real sweats again this week. I loved my process all around and felt like I had a few real chances Sunday. Injury luck will even out in the long run!
