Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Each week through the NFL season, I’ll review my single-entry lineup, as well as a couple others. I will also track success rates throughout the season. The criteria for the other lineups to make the article (and tracking) will be over 10% of my overall investment. This week, that includes:
- Single-entry lineup
- A secondary main slate lineup
- Early-only single-entry lineup
- Afternoon-only single-entry lineup
The goal here is to hold myself accountable for the decisions I make while also helping to provide a blueprint for long term success in GPPs. Let’s get to it.
Throughout the year, I’ll emphasize the top 10% and top 1% hit rates. While profit/loss is at the mercy of significant variance at the top of tournaments, these hit rates stabilize much faster and can therefore paint a stronger picture of our performance.
Unfortunately, my SE was my worst lineup:
Every choice we make can be categorized in one of four groups:
- Bad Process, Bad Outcome
- Bad Process, Good Outcome
- Good Process, Bad Outcome
- Good Process, Good Outcome
We’ll begin with No. 1:
Bad process, bad outcome
1. Elijah Moore, WR, New York Jets
Our own Javi Prellezo said it best in chat: “Chalky rookie. Pass”. There’s more to it than that, but the sentiment is exactly right — it was a fragile spot, so over 30% ownership should be faded.
2. Aaron Jones, RB, Green Bay Packers
This is the one that really bothers me, because there was an obvious pivot I loved who fit the lineup from a correlation standpoint — Miles Sanders. I fell in love with Aaron Jones’ ceiling, but the combination of A.J. Brown and Julio Jones already gave me enough contrarian ceiling.
Meanwhile, I was higher on the Eagles and lower on the Falcons than the field, so pairing Sanders with the Philly defense would have been ideal. It also would have given me enough salary to upgrade Moore.
Bad process, good outcome
N/A
Good process, bad outcome
1. A.J. Brown/Julio Jones, WR, Tennessee Titans
One thing I emphasized in my writeup for the week was the Titans’ use of play-action. Well, falling behind by multiple scores early on while trying to establish the run effectively eliminated play-action for them. The entire offense suffered as a result. The Arizona offensive success and early pace of the game showed that the process on this one was solid, we just got the wrong game script.
Good process, good outcome
1. Arizona Cardinals stack (Kyler Murray, QB; Chase Edmonds, RB; Rondale Moore, WR)
Chase Edmonds and Rondale Moore were heavily involved, productive and could have been even better with some TD luck. Kyler Murray was typical Kyler.
2. Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs
Obviously, Travis Kelce was solid here, but what I was especially happy about was being right in regards to ownership — the stud RBs got the added ownership from all of the value WRs, not Kelce. 16% was a gift.
3. Philadelphia DST
Correlated leverage! The Philly defense racked up points in the second half while preventing the chalky Kyle Pitts, Calvin Ridley and even Mike Davis from doing anything. If only I could go back in time and have Sanders complement this play.
The other lineups
Notes:
In my secondary lineup (top) and early-only lineup (left), I’m upset with myself for using Kyle Pitts. I felt strongly that Dallas Goedert was a better play but ate the chalk anyway. Having a runback is the only argument for it, but that’s enough to keep myself from calling that decision bad process.
Meanwhile, Aaron Jones burned me in the afternoon, as well. Ironically, though he cost me more here, I actually think his presence in my afternoon lineup was better process. Whereas I had enough contrarian upside in my main lineup, he was an integral part of the story my afternoon line told — the three Saint “punt” WRs with Jameis Winston were meant to complement the ceilings of Jones, Alvin Kamara and the two Chiefs stars. If all four hit in a big way, jamming them in would have been optimal.
