QB Carousel – Who will start for all 32 NFL teams in Week 1 2022?

This time a year ago, the Los Angeles Rams had a quarterback they didn’t want anymore, and the Cincinnati Bengals had one who had had his knee just about destroyed and would possibly be unavailable for Week 1 of the coming season.

Now, a year later, the Rams have a new quarterback, the Bengals got their guy healthy, and they just faced off in the Super Bowl.

Who is under center for a football team is the most influential single factor in sports. So with the 2021-2022 season behind us, a group of us here at FTN decided to make our predictions for each team’s Week 1 starter for the coming season. 

Where will there be continuity? Where will there be a whole new face of the franchise? And what the heck are the Steelers going to do? The results from the brain trust of Derek Brown, Matthew Freedman, Daniel Kelley, Chris Meaney and Jeff Ratcliffe are below.

Unanimous Predictions

All five of our predictors had the same names across the board for these teams:

Some notes from this group:

• Even with some after-the-season drama in Arizona, everyone thinks Kyler Murray will still be the guy for the Cardinals.
• If we had done this exercise a month ago, the answers in Green Bay might have been different, but it sounds like the Packers and Aaron Rodgers will run it back one more time after all.
• Maybe Tua Tagovailoa isn’t a future star (or maybe he is), but it’s hard to justify the Dolphins moving on from him quite yet.
• There wasn’t much mystery about it, especially after Jimmy Garoppolo’s end-of-season press conference, but everyone agrees the 49ers’ job is Trey Lance’s, at least to start the season.

The Mystery Scenarios

There was at least some disagreement in the key names on these teams. Here are the predictions, with some justifications when necessary.

Carolina Panthers

The Panthers and owner David Tepper have reportedly been champing at the bit for a big-name QB. The bet on Sam Darnold didn’t really work out last year, so four of our five panelists have them going for another splash this offseason.

• Derek Brown: The Panthers could select a quarterback in the first round, but it’s equally likely that they trade back to acquire more picks. They traded their second- and third-round picks for Sam Darnold and C.J. Henderson. Considering their commitment to Darnold last season and multiple roster needs, they could easily roll with Darnold for another season.
• Matthew Freedman: Matt Rhule needs to make a big move to solidify the quarterback position because Sam Darnold isn’t going to cut it. And Deshaun Watson’s time with the Texans has all but run its course.
• Daniel Kelley: Really, this comes down to the courts, as icky as it is to see things through that perspective. If Watson is cleared to play, I expect Tepper to pounce as quickly as he can.
• Chris Meaney: The Panthers have the sixth pick in this year’s draft, so they may have to swap with Houston at 3 in order to get Malik Willis. The Liberty signal-caller is dynamic and had a strong showing at the Senior Bowl.

Denver Broncos

Everything seemed primed for the Broncos to make their best offer for Aaron Rodgers, but it sounds like that’s growing less likely. So what do they do now? Everyone has them going for a rookie, but four different names makes the cut.

• Matthew Freedman: Assuming the Panthers address quarterback via free agency or trade, the Broncos are the first team on the draft board with an obvious need at the position, and I now believe that Malik Willis will be the first quarterback selected in the draft.
• Daniel Kelley: Kenny Pickett was seen for a bit as the clear first quarterback off the board in the draft. Now it’s less sure. Either way, he’ll be near the front of the list, and the Broncos will be one of the first teams to pounce. And with their plethora of weapons, better to get a quarterback geared to take advantage of them than a Malik Willis type who will soak up a lot of the yardage himself.

Houston Texans

Davis Mills was a surprise last year. He wasn’t expected to see much time at all and instead wound up being arguably the No. 2 rookie quarterback. Four of our five think Houston rolls with him again in 2022, while Jeff Ratcliffe thinks they turn to a new face from the draft.

• Jeff Ratcliffe: Davis Mills had a decent run at the end of the 2021 regular season, but did he really show enough to be a long-term starter in the NFL? The Texans have a major Deshaun Watson-sized hole to fill, and Mills just isn’t that guy. So they’re a very strong bet to select a signal caller in this year’s draft. Whether it’s Matt Corral or one of the other top prospects, that player will likely be under center for the team from the gate.

Indianapolis Colts

This is another one where had we done this exercise a month ago, the results might have been different, and we’d likely have unanimously declared Carson Wentz the starter. But Wentz struggled last year, and reports started coming out that the team will move on from the ill-fated trade acquisition. That led to a good deal more mystery around our Colts predictions.

• Derek Brown: The Colts mortgaged their first-round pick in this year’s NFL Draft for Carson Wentz’ services. With all of the rumors out of Indy pointing to the team moving on from Wentz, Jimmy Garoppolo could be the cheap stopgap to take his place. Indianapolis’ offensive identity is Jonathan Taylor, and they only need a quarterback who can mitigate turnovers, perform as a game manager, and doesn’t cost much in a trade. This is the epitome of Garoppolo. 
• Daniel Kelley: If you’re Jordan Love, why would you want to stay with the Packers and sit behind Aaron Rodgers for another who-knows-how-long? If you’re the Packers, why would you want to hold Love on the bench and eliminate any scant amount of trade value he might have left if he’s never going to start for you? And if you’re the Colts, why go with the “we know it won’t work” of Carson Wentz when there’s the “it probably won’t work, but” of Jordan Love?
• Chris Meaney: I’ll start by saying I think this would be gross for the Colts, especially from a fantasy standpoint. I’d rather see them stick with Carson Wentz, but it sounds like he’s done. Teddy Bridgewater doesn’t have a higher ceiling than Wentz, but he’s more accurate (completion percentage of at least 67% the last three years) and he can take care of the football. The line in Indianapolis is strong, the run game is great and the defense has potential. After trading a first-round pick last season for Wentz, Indy could take the cheap approach when looking for a QB.

New Orleans Saints

Jameis Winston is an unrestricted free agent and recovering from an ACL tear, but most of our pickers think he remains in New Orleans under the new coaching staff. Derek Brown, though, thinks the team maintains its Taysom Hill infatuation, even with Sean Payton no longer in town.

• Derek Brown: The Saints sit at 18th in the first round of the NFL Draft, staring up at six teams (DET, HOU, CAR, ATL, DEN, WAS) that could all possibly address the quarterback position. This leaves New Orleans on the outside looking in on this year’s quarterback class which isn’t regarded as a strong or deep group. Trevor Siemian and Jameis Winston are unrestricted free agents (and Winston is still recovering from his torn ACL), and with the Saints ranking 32nd in cap space, this leads to Taysom Hill as the starter for 2022.

New York Giants

The new regime in New York appears satisfied with Daniel Jones, but then teams always appear satisfied with the situation in place until a new situation presents itself. Enter Mitchell Trubisky?

• Chris Meaney: New head coach Brian Daboll could pursue Mitchell Trubisky, as the free agent played behind Josh Allen in Buffalo last season. Daboll doesn’t have to be committed to Daniel Jones now that the team has cleaned house. Trubisky will understand the offense, won’t be an expensive addition, and there could be an open competition at the QB position. Daboll pushed for Trubisky in Buffalo, so don’t be surprised if he goes after him again. 

Pittsburgh Steelers

Ah, the big mystery. Two rookies. Three veterans. One current Steeler. No one really knows who will start for the Steelers next year or where that starter will come from, but the options are interesting.

• Derek Brown: The rumor mill was singing loudly at the Senior Bowl, with infatuation for Malik Willis kicked up to 11. He looks like he’ll be a top-10 pick in the draft, and with the Steelers down at the 20th, the price could be too steep for them to hop the teams targeting Willis. Even if they take the quarterback route with their first-round pick, Mason Rudolph could easily be the guy for Week 1.
• Daniel Kelley: The Steelers finding their QB of the future isn’t a likely outcome this offseason, given their late draft pick and lack of obvious trade/free agent options. So get Gardner Minshew, who can keep the ship pointed forward and at a minimum be interesting. 
• Chris Meaney: It sounds like the Colts are ready to cut ties with Carson Wentz if they don’t find a trading partner, and it seems unlikely they will. The Steelers will certainly have their eyes on Malik Willis, but I believe Pittsburgh has a win-now team after just squeaking into the playoffs with Ben Roethlisberger. Wentz isn’t much of an upgrade over Ben, but it’s a small one and he’s someone who can come in and help them win games right now.

Seattle Seahawks

We’re split on whether the Seahawks stick with their decade-long incumbent or whether it’s time to turn the page. And then, if the Seahawks do ship Russell Wilson out of town, his replacement is also a huge question mark.

• Daniel Kelley: If the Seahawks do move on from Wilson, either by their decision or his, the next step is a big mystery. But if we assume the team gets a decent haul from Mystery Team X for Wilson, then the Seahawks can afford to send a second-rounder a few hours south for Garoppolo, who can run a “don’t make mistakes” sort of offense in Seattle.
• Jeff Ratcliffe: With Russell Wilson out (see below), the Seahawks need someone, anyone, to take over. Teddy Bridgewater doesn’t move the needle as a starter, but he is at least capable of handling the reins as a bridge option for the Seahawks. I would like to apologize in advance to Seattle fans if this actually comes to fruition.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

After Tom Brady’s retirement, the Buccaneers head into an offseason that promises a lot of transition. This is a team with a lot of expiring contracts and not much cap room, so whether Tampa contends in 2022 could come down to who is under center. Could it be Jimmy Garoppolo, paired with Brady yet again? Could it be Deshaun Watson, escaping from Houston? Or could it be a rookie?

• Derek Brown: The Buccaneers, despite all of their pending free agents and the loss of Tom Brady, don’t strike me as a team looking to rebuild. Tampa Bay is 19th in salary cap space ($6.8 million), so even adding a free agent quarterback looks like a possible no-go. That leaves them parting with picks to get one. They have both their first- and second-round picks for 2022, so Deshaun Watson could happen if Houston lowers the asking price.
• Matthew Freedman: The Buccaneers have a Super Bowl-caliber team except at quarterback now that Tom Brady has retired, and Jimmy Garoppolo — for all his faults — is good enough to get a team deep into the playoffs if everything else around him is strong.
• Daniel Kelley: There’s really no way to guess what the Bucs will do here, with so much in flux. I figure it might be a quasi-rebuild, and bringing in Malik Willis to pair with the veteran Mike Evans could be the starting point. Willis’ stock shot up in the Senior Bowl, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see it level back off as we approach the draft.
• Jeff Ratcliffe: The Bucs have a major issue ahead with Tom Brady likely to stay retired. The current answer to the question isn’t on the roster — sorry, Kyle Trask truthers. So the thought process here is that they make a big splash and bring in Deshaun Watson. Unlikely with Brady, Watson comes with a very long shelf life and ideally should be your franchise option for the next decade. Of course, his looming legal matters make this one very complicated.

Washington Commanders

After an injury to Ryan Fitzpatrick and an acceptable-but-not-much-more stint from Taylor Heinicke, the newly-rechristened Commanders are very likely to have someone new throwing the ball next season. Our pickers have them landing either a top rookie in the draft or a prized veteran in trade.

• Matthew Freedman: The Commanders need a quarterback, and Kenny Pickett has gone in Round 1 of every mock draft I’ve surveyed.
• Daniel Kelley: Washington has to get someone. Why not swing for the fences? This is a strong-to-very-strong roster if it winds up including a good quarterback, and sending a first-round pick and more to Seattle for Russell Wilson could be the high-ceiling move a franchise with a new name needs to take.
• Chris Meaney: Washington has had 11 different quarterbacks since 2017. Please, go and get Terry McLaurin a capable QB so we can watch him take the next step in his development. If they can work out a deal with the Texans for Deshaun Watson, their offense will be much improved in 2022/23.
• Jeff Ratcliffe: The rumblings about Russell Wilson‘s departure from Seattle have not gone away, so a move elsewhere seems likely. Of course, he isn’t going to go just anywhere. Geography is a key factor here, which whittles down the potential list of landing spots to just a few locations. I’m going with Washington because the team is built to win with a strong surrounding cast on both sides of the ball. The Commanders have a player-friendly coach in Ron Rivera. And perhaps most importantly, the city is located in a part of the country that won’t be geographically challenging for his wife’s career.