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Postseason Fantasy Football Rankings and Draft Strategy
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Postseason Fantasy Football Rankings and Draft Strategy

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Just when you thought you were out of the fantasy football season, we’re going to pull you back in. It’s time for the NFL playoffs, which means another month of fantasy before the offseason. 

 

Postseason fantasy football is not a new idea, but it has been increasing in popularity over the last few years. At only a quarter of the length of the regular season, these leagues are a great way for those who are jonesing to get one more fantasy fix or a chance for redemption to rid that bad aftertaste of a losing season. 

There are a variety of formats you can use in the NFL playoffs, but the three most-common are salary cap, one-and-done, and traditional draft-and-hold. Regardless of which your league uses, the idea remains the same – pick the players who are going to score the most points. 

In draft-style leagues, this task is much easier in the regular season. Barring any injuries or suspensions, all players play the same number of games. But in the playoffs, as teams are eliminated, you lose their players. The key here is to draft not just quality players, but quality players on teams that have the best chance to play multiple games and hopefully advance to the Super Bowl. 

To determine which teams you think will advance, I suggest drawing up a bracket and make your picks just as you would for the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament. When mapping out your picks, remember that Vegas is your friend. Here are the current odds to win the Super Bowl at :

  • Kansas City Chiefs +350
  • Buffalo Bills +400
  • San Francisco 49ers +500
  • Philadelphia Eagles +550
  • Cincinnati Bengals +850
  • Dallas Cowboys +1200
  • Los Angeles Chargers +2000
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2800
  • Baltimore Ravens +3500
  • Minnesota Vikings +3500
  • Jacksonville Jaguars +5000
  • New York Giants +5500
  • Miami Dolphins +6000
  • Seattle Seahawks +7000

Two things should be obvious right away – 1) The Chiefs are the odds-on favorite to win the Super Bowl with Buffalo sitting just behind them as the clear No. 2 choice, and 2) The Buccaneers, Ravens, Vikings, Jaguars, Giants, Dolphins and Seahawks are long shots. The fact that there are so many longshots works against us this year, as there will be a lot of folks gunning for players on just a few teams: the Chiefs, Bills, 49ers, Eagles and Bengals. However, it is worth noting that Cincinnati advanced to the Super Bowl and were given +1600 odds to win before the playoffs started last year. So, we can’t rule out the Cowboys, Chargers or even some of the shorter-odds longshots. 

Using Super Bowl odds helps, but we also need to utilize the conference winner odds. Here’s the AFC:

  • Kansas City Chiefs +170
  • Buffalo Bills +200
  • Cincinnati Bengals +450
  • Los Angeles Chargers +1000
  • Baltimore Ravens +1800
  • Jacksonville Jaguars +2000
  • Miami Dolphins +3000

The top-seeded Chiefs come in with the shortest odds. At +170, they have a 37% chance of advancing to the Super Bowl. It’s hard to disagree after they’ve found their way to the big game in two of the last three years. But will be tough as both the Bills and Bengals have the offensive fire power to go toe-to-toe with anyone in the league. From there, the Chargers are an interesting dark horse candidate given ascending presence. 

Meanwhile, Baltimore worked their way into the playoffs thanks to great defensive play despite missing for a big chunk of the stretch run. All signs point to Jackson returning for the Wild Card round. As for Jacksonville, came of age this season, but it may be a tick too early in his career to see him make a postseason run. It’s a great story that the Dolphins managed to get in, but having to face the Bills in the first round doesn’t give them much of a shot to get out of the first weekend of the postseason.

In the NFC, we have a similar distribution of the odds:

  • Philadelphia Eagles +175
  • San Francisco 49ers +180
  • Dallas Cowboys +500
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1000
  • Minnesota Vikings +1200
  • New York Giants +2500
  • Seattle Seahawks +3000

The No. 1 seed Eagles were installed as the odds-on favorites, but San Francisco is right there with them at the top of the board. At the other end of the spectrum, the Seahawks are the biggest underdogs. Given the odds, the 49ers and Cowboys are the best bets to give you at least two games with the potential to deliver four games of fantasy production. Getting four games from your players is one of the biggest factors in winning fantasy playoff leagues. If you’re looking for a dark horse in the NFC, both the Vikings and Giants are in play. 

With all this information, you can now draw out your playoff brackets. Of course, the Vegas odds are typically very chalky, but you don’t need to follow them 100% of the time. Remember, it’s your draft, so draw up the brackets based on who you think will win. Here’s how I project the playoffs:

 

Wild Card Round

San Francisco defeats Seattle

The 49ers swept the season series with their most recent win over the Seahawks coming in mid-December. Their elite defense along with the more than serviceable play of will be too much for Pete Carroll’s squad.

Jacksonville defeats LA Chargers

We’re a long way from Week 3 when the Jags took it to the Chargers in a 38-10 victory, but ’s play down the stretch bodes well for a home victory. A loss could also mean the end of Brandon Staley’s tenure as the Chargers’ head coach.

Buffalo defeats Miami

It’s a great story that the Dolphins got into the playoffs in Mike McDaniel’s inaugural season, but there’s just too much working against Miami here. Buffalo is a juggernaut that is playing inspired football. Meanwhile, we don’t even know who will be under center for the Dolphins.

NY Giants defeats Minnesota

Despite winning 13 games, the Vikings have a minus 3-point differential. To be fair, Minnesota did eek out a victory against New York on Christmas Eve, but their suspect defense will prove to be a liability against and .

Cincinnati defeats Baltimore

should return for this contest, but his presence won’t be enough to revive an anemic Ravens offense. To be fair, Baltimore’s defense should at least keep them in this one, but ultimately the Bengals will prove to be too much.

Tampa Bay defeats Dallas

Yep, you read that right. We have our biggest upset of the Wild Card Round Monday night. Dallas is coming off an ugly outing in the season finale where they looked like a flat tire against the Commanders. notches another postseason win.

Divisional Round

Philadelphia defeats NY Giants

Unlike the Week 18 matchup between these two teams, the Giants will have their starts on the field for this one. However, the result remains the same. Philly marches on to the next round.

Kansas City defeats Jacksonville

The Jags were a mini-upset in the Wild Card Round, but Kansas City’s firepower led by the brilliance of is just too much to overcome. Andy Reid’s squad heads to yet another conference championship game.

San Francisco defeats Tampa Bay

It’s tempting to give Tampa the upset win over a -led 49ers squad, but it’s the San Francisco defense that helps propel them past the GOAT.

Buffalo defeats Cincinnati

We get a rematch of the Week 17 Monday night contest that will undoubtedly have a lasting impact on the NFL. Emotions will undoubtedly be high in this contest if it comes to fruition, but ultimately the Bills will prove to be too much for last year’s Super Bowl runner-up.

Conference Championship

Philadelphia defeats San Francisco

Two very good defenses square off in this one, so we’re going to give the edge to the team with the better offense. While San Francisco is loaded with studs, is simply in another class from rookie .

Buffalo defeats Kansas City

The neutral site AFC Championship game seems destined to happen as these two teams have been on a collision course since last year’s epic Divisional Round game. This game will have a Super Bowl-esque feel to it and the Bills impressive season will continue on.

Super Bowl

Buffalo defeats Philadelphia

Sometimes the result of the Super Bowl impacts your fantasy draft decisions, but the losing team can still put up major fantasy points.

So, these results give use the following number of games for each team: Bills (4), 49ers (3), Eagles (3), Chiefs (2), Bengals (2), Buccaneers (2), Giants (2), Jaguars (2), Vikings (1), Cowboys (1), Chargers (1), Ravens (1), Seahawks (1), Dolphins (1)

While it’s very easy to simply leave things like this, I’d strong advise against it. Using full games, we’ll end up with a set of rankings that is heavily weighted toward the four- and three-game teams. And the reality is that the teams that we pick to lose don’t have a 0% chance to win. 

Based on the projected spread for each game, we can calculate the team’s percentage change of winning. If you’d like to calculate the chance of winning, here’s the formula: 0.0319*x+0.5001, where “x” is the spread. 

So given the numbers I ran in my model, these percentages can be converted to the following games played: Bills (2.92), 49ers (2.76), Eagles (2.27), Chiefs (2.24), Bengals (2.16), Buccaneers (1.87), Giants (1.75), Jaguars (1.70), Vikings (1.60), Cowboys (1.58), Chargers (1.53), Ravens (1.29), Seahawks (1.18), Dolphins (1.17). Using these game projections, we can now rank all the players for the playoffs. We’ll be using the following roster requirements: 2QB, 8FLEX, 2DST, 2K.

2023 NFL Postseason Fantasy Rankings

1. , BUF, QB1, 71.2 pts, 2.9 gms
2. , PHI, QB2, 58 pts, 2.3 gms
3. , KC, QB3, 54 pts, 2.2 gms
4. , SF, QB4, 53.1 pts, 2.8 gms
5. , SF, RB1, 49.9 pts, 2.8 gms
6. , BUF, WR1, 48 pts, 2.9 gms
7. , CIN, QB5, 47.1 pts, 2.2 gms
8. , CIN, WR2, 35.7 pts, 2.2 gms
9. , KC, TE1, 33.8 pts, 2.2 gms
10. , PHI, WR3, 33.6 pts, 2.3 gms

Josh Allen Fantasy Football Postseason Rankings

The top tier shows you just how important quarterbacks are in postseason fantasy football, with four of them in this group. The key to winning a postseason league is hitching your saddle to the right horse at quarterback and here we have the two best bets from both conferences. 

11. , BUF, RB2, 32.4 pts, 2.9 gms
12. , CIN, RB3, 32.2 pts, 2.2 gms
13. , SF, TE2, 31.4 pts, 2.8 gms
14. , NYG, QB6, 31.2 pts, 1.7 gms
15. , SF, WR4, 30.6 pts, 2.8 gms
16. , KC, RB4, 29 pts, 2.2 gms
17. , JAX, QB7, 29 pts, 1.7 gms
18. , TB, QB8, 28.7 pts, 1.9 gms
19. , LAC, RB5, 28.7 pts, 1.5 gms
20. , SF, WR5, 28.6 pts, 2.8 gms
21. , BUF, WR6, 28.3 pts, 2.9 gms
22. , MIN, WR7, 28.2 pts, 1.6 gms
23. , PHI, WR8, 27.8 pts, 2.3 gms
24. , NYG, RB6, 27.7 pts, 1.7 gms
25. , PHI, RB7, 27 pts, 2.3 gms

Try to get the most bang for your buck in this range. While it’s wise to attack quarterback in the first round, there’s still value to be had after that point. You can still end up with Jones, Lawrence or Brady as late as the third round. And don’t forget that games played isn’t everything in these drafts. Even if you don’t think a team will play more than one game, players like still have the potential to out-score multigame players. And there’s always the chance you’re wrong on your game picks. 

26. , MIN, QB9, 26.9 pts, 1.6 gms
27. , DAL, QB10, 26.4 pts, 1.6 gms
28. , BUF, TE3, 26 pts, 2.9 gms
29. , LAC, QB11, 25.1 pts, 1.5 gms
30. , BAL, QB12, 24.9 pts, 1.3 gms
31. , CIN, WR9, 24.5 pts, 2.2 gms
32. , TB, RB8, 24 pts, 1.9 gms
33. , BUF, RB9, 23.9 pts, 2.9 gms
34. San Francisco 49ers, SF, DST1, 23.8 pts, 2.8 gms
35. Buffalo Bills, BUF, DST2, 23.3 pts, 2.9 gms
36. , TB, WR10, 23.3 pts, 1.9 gms
37. , SF, RB10, 23.2 pts, 2.8 gms
38. , DAL, WR11, 23 pts, 1.6 gms
39. , DAL, RB11, 22.6 pts, 1.6 gms
40. , BUF, K1, 22.6 pts, 2.9 gms
41. , TB, WR12, 21.6 pts, 1.9 gms
42. , KC, RB12, 21.6 pts, 2.2 gms
43. , PHI, TE4, 21.5 pts, 2.3 gms

Kirk Cousins Fantasy Football Postseason Rankings

If you didn’t grab your second quarterback earlier in the draft, this is essentially the point of no return. Cousins, Herbert and Jackson don’t necessarily give you good shot at two games played, but all three offer plenty of bang for your buck if they do manage to advance past the Wild Card Round. You’ll also notice the first defenses and kickers appear in this range of rankings. If this was a season-long league, it would be utterly insane to draft those positions this early. However, in postseason leagues, it’s extremely valuable to have players at any position who play multiple games.

44. , SF, K2, 20.8 pts, 2.8 gms
45. , SEA, QB13, 20.8 pts, 1.2 gms
46. , MIA, QB14, 20.5 pts, 1.2 gms
47. , MIN, RB13, 20.4 pts, 1.6 gms
48. , KC, WR13, 20.3 pts, 2.2 gms
49. , JAX, WR14, 20 pts, 1.7 gms
50. , LAC, WR15, 19.9 pts, 1.5 gms
51. , MIA, WR16, 19.3 pts, 1.2 gms
52. , DAL, RB14, 18.7 pts, 1.6 gms
53. , CIN, WR17, 18.3 pts, 2.2 gms
54. Philadelphia Eagles, PHI, DST3, 18.2 pts, 2.3 gms
55. , TB, RB15, 18.1 pts, 1.9 gms
56. , JAX, RB16, 17.9 pts, 1.7 gms
57. , MIN, TE5, 17.5 pts, 1.6 gms
58. , LAC, WR18, 17.1 pts, 1.5 gms
59. , CIN, RB17, 16.7 pts, 2.2 gms
60. , JAX, WR19, 16.5 pts, 1.7 gms
61. , BUF, WR20, 16.3 pts, 2.9 gms

Depending on your roster requirements, you may have to prioritize tight end early in your drafts. I don’t recommend going that route and instead suggest having flex spots for your running backs, wideouts and tight ends. This is also the section of the draft where you’ll start to see a lot of onesie players hanging on the board. Be careful to not draft too many of these guys. Instead, it’s wise to load up on the teams you’re prioritizing. That means you can certainly draft a player from one of those teams even if there are several other higher-ranked players still on the board.

 

62. , KC, K3, 15.9 pts, 2.2 gms
63. , PHI, K4, 15.5 pts, 2.3 gms
64. , MIA, WR21, 15.3 pts, 1.2 gms
65. , CIN, K5, 15.2 pts, 2.2 gms
66. , SEA, RB18, 14.9 pts, 1.2 gms
67. , NYG, WR22, 14.9 pts, 1.7 gms
68. , NYG, WR23, 14.9 pts, 1.7 gms
69. , MIA, RB19, 14.6 pts, 1.2 gms
70. , SEA, WR24, 14.6 pts, 1.2 gms
71. Kansas City Chiefs, KC, DST4, 14.3 pts, 2.2 gms
72. Dallas Cowboys, DAL, DST5, 14.2 pts, 1.6 gms
73. , TB, WR25, 14.1 pts, 1.9 gms
74. , JAX, TE6, 13.9 pts, 1.7 gms
75. , DAL, K6, 13.5 pts, 1.6 gms
76. , NYG, K7, 13.3 pts, 1.7 gms
77. , MIN, WR26, 13.3 pts, 1.6 gms
78. Cincinnati Bengals, CIN, DST6, 13.2 pts, 2.2 gms
79. , CIN, TE7, 13.2 pts, 2.2 gms
80. , TB, K8, 13.1 pts, 1.9 gms
81. , BAL, TE8, 13.1 pts, 1.3 gms
82. , KC, WR27, 12.9 pts, 2.2 gms
83. , SEA, WR28, 12.8 pts, 1.2 gms
84. , KC, WR29, 12.7 pts, 2.2 gms
85. , LAC, WR30, 12.6 pts, 1.5 gms
86. , BAL, RB20, 12.6 pts, 1.3 gms
87. Jacksonville Jaguars, JAX, DST7, 12.5 pts, 1.7 gms
88. , JAX, K9, 12.5 pts, 1.7 gms
89. , SF, WR31, 12.4 pts, 2.8 gms
90. , PHI, WR32, 12.3 pts, 2.3 gms
91. , DAL, TE9, 12.2 pts, 1.6 gms
92. , MIN, WR33, 12 pts, 1.6 gms

Unlike in regular season leagues, you don’t want to wait to grab your kicker and defense. Again, you’ll want to lean heavily on your bracket picks and draft the kickers and defenses you project play the most games. and will likely be the first kickers off the board with the Bills and 49erss defenses likely being picked in the same range. But there will still be plenty of defenses and kickers to choose from in this part of the draft.

From this point forward continue to load up on the teams you think will go the furthest, and don’t be bashful. This means picking guys deep down the depth chart. So, for example, players like and even are very intriguing in the later rounds if you happened to load up on the 49ers.

93. , LAC, K10, 11.9 pts, 1.5 gms
94. , NYG, WR34, 11.7 pts, 1.7 gms
95. , BAL, K11, 11.3 pts, 1.3 gms
96. , MIN, K12, 11.2 pts, 1.6 gms
97. , CIN, WR35, 10.4 pts, 2.2 gms
98. , LAC, TE10, 10.4 pts, 1.5 gms
99. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, TB, DST8, 10.3 pts, 1.9 gms
100. , TB, WR36, 10.2 pts, 1.9 gms
101. , SEA, K13, 10 pts, 1.2 gms
102. New York Giants, NYG, DST9, 9.9 pts, 1.7 gms
103. , DAL, WR37, 9.7 pts, 1.6 gms
104. , JAX, WR38, 9.4 pts, 1.7 gms
105. , TB, TE11, 9.4 pts, 1.9 gms
106. , SF, WR39, 9.3 pts, 2.8 gms
107. Baltimore Ravens, BAL, DST10, 9.2 pts, 1.3 gms
108. , DAL, WR40, 9 pts, 1.6 gms
109. Minnesota Vikings, MIN, DST11, 8.9 pts, 1.6 gms
110. , BAL, WR41, 8.6 pts, 1.3 gms
111. Los Angeles Chargers, LAC, DST12, 8.5 pts, 1.5 gms
112. , BAL, RB21, 8.3 pts, 1.3 gms
113. , MIA, K14, 8.3 pts, 1.2 gms
114. , NYG, TE12, 8.1 pts, 1.7 gms
115. , MIA, RB22, 8 pts, 1.2 gms
116. , LAC, RB23, 8 pts, 1.5 gms
117. , JAX, WR42, 7.6 pts, 1.7 gms
118. , KC, TE13, 7.6 pts, 2.2 gms
119. Seattle Seahawks, SEA, DST13, 7.3 pts, 1.2 gms
120. , LAC, WR43, 7.2 pts, 1.5 gms
121. , SEA, TE14, 6.8 pts, 1.2 gms
122. Miami Dolphins, MIA, DST14, 6.6 pts, 1.2 gms
123. , BAL, TE15, 6 pts, 1.3 gms
124. , BAL, WR44, 5.8 pts, 1.3 gms
125. , MIA, TE16, 5.6 pts, 1.2 gms
126. , KC, WR45, 5.5 pts, 2.2 gms
127. , KC, WR46, 5.5 pts, 2.2 gms
128. , MIA, WR47, 5.5 pts, 1.2 gms
129. , LAC, TE17, 4.9 pts, 1.5 gms
130. , MIA, WR48, 4.6 pts, 1.2 gms
131. , BUF, WR49, 4.1 pts, 2.9 gms
132. , DAL, WR50, 3.6 pts, 1.6 gms
133. , PHI, WR51, 3.4 pts, 2.3 gms
134. , MIN, WR52, 2.9 pts, 1.6 gms

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