Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to Pope’s Pick 6. Twice a week I’ll be bringing you a quick look at my fantasy football thoughts in quick-hit form. Today, in our last Pope’s Pick 6 weekend before the regular season: Players who saw the biggest increase in their fantasy stock over the training camp and preseason.
Every season, a handful of players impress in the preseason and see their fantasy stock shoot up, whether due to usage in preseason games, clarity on their health or players around them failing to impress. This year, we saw multiple rookies make impact plays en route to earning roles on their respective teams. Additionally, we also saw multiple veterans earn new roles and some lose previously secure jobs. With this, we turn our attention to six players who took advantage of the preseason and helped raise their fantasy stock this preseason.
Saquon Barkley, RB, New York Giants
Pegged as “injury prone,” Saquon Barkley was slept on early this offseason. There was concern his injuries would persist, and also concern that his previous injuries had sapped him of his talent and explosiveness. Those concerns were amplified by his struggles last season, his first back after an ACL tear. His 3.7 yards per attempt on the ground and 6.4 yards per reception were career lows (excluding his two-game 2020 before the ACL tear). His dip in production was not all on him, as the Giants’ offensive line and offense on the whole struggled mightily last season. The Giants fired Joe Judge after the season and brought in creative offensive mind Brian Daboll as head coach. Daboll was a key piece in the development of Josh Allen and the Bills’ explosive passing attack.
Now a full year removed from the ACL injury, Barkley looked more explosive and more like his old self this preseason. He saw limited touches, only five in the single game he appeared in, but he averaged 5.65 yards on those touches. Additionally, with the new offense involving more presnap movement and more plays on the perimeter, Barkley’s fantasy stock is rising quickly. The days of getting him in the third round are gone, and he’s risen as high as the first in some drafts.
Chase Edmonds, RB, Miami Dolphins
Chase Edmonds started the offseason by signing a significant contract to join the Dolphins, but many people still did not believe he would be the guy there, especially after the team also added Raheem Mostert and Sony Michel and still had Myles Gaskin and Salvon Ahmed around from last year’s team. Other than Ahmed, every guy on that list had at least one season of 800-plus scrimmage yards, but only Michel (1,006 in 2019) had ever topped 1,000. The thinking was that this could be a big committee that would yield no real fantasy contributor.
Edmonds saw limited opportunities this preseason, only appearing in one game and seeing three carries for three yards – Mostert was the only other running back to see a similar workload. Meanwhile, all the others played in all three games and saw significant workloads. This lack of playing time helps cement the idea that both Mostert and Edmonds are likely the lead backs in this backfield, and Edmonds had more receptions in 12 games last year (43) than Mostert has in his seven-year career (36), which should mean Edmonds gets the majority of the high-value backfield targets. Additionally, the team released Sony Michel after the preseason. All of that combines to leave us feeling confident Edmonds sees the lion’s share of the work for the Dolphins this season.
Dameon Pierce, RB, Houston Texans
Dameon Pierce had one of the best preseasons of any player, let alone rookies. He led all Texans running backs with 7.8 yards per attempt en route to 86 total yards and was the only Texans back to find the end zone. He also displayed solid vision and broke tackles at a high rate, much like his college career. All of this helped the team feel good enough to release veteran running backs Marlon Mack — who led the team with 90 yards on 21 attempts — and Royce Freeman, leaving only Pierce, Rex Burkhead and Dare Ogunbowale on the depth chart. (Mack was later re-signed to the practice squad.)
That means Pierce will open the season in the lead role in this backfield, giving him an opportunity at 200-plus touches in 2022. He is now hard to ignore in drafts this season. We’ll see what role Burkhead plays in this backfield — if he’s the primary third-down and receiving back, it could limit Pierce’s overall ceiling — but as it stands, Pierce might have been the single biggest riser in fantasy all preseason.
Robert Woods, WR, Tennessee Titans
After a season-ending ACL tear last season, Robert Woods was traded from the Rams to the Titans this offseason. Going from one of the league’s more explosive offenses to one of the run-heaviest teams left his fantasy stock in flux, especially with the Titans replacing the departed A.J. Brown with rookie first-rounder Treylon Burks, who was assumed to immediately be the No. 1 on the target tree. Now 30 years old and with the possibility of being the second option in a low-passing volume offense, it is easy to see how Woods could disappear when it came to fantasy production this season, and his ADP early this offseason reflected that.
But in limited opportunities this preseason, Woods looked healthy and impressive, earning the lead wide receiver role in the Titans’ offense as Burks struggled with conditioning and adapting to the NFL game. That means Burks will open the season as the No. 3 receiver on the depth chart, and Woods will start the season as the lead receiver. That gives him a good chance to finish inside the top 36, a big rise from the uncertainty that surrounded him at the start of the preseason.
George Pickens, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
George Pickens carried one of the highest ceilings in this year’s rookie class, with non-football concerns dropping him to the second round. Landing on a Steelers team that already had Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool (and TE Pat Freiermuth) in the fold didn’t help his fantasy stock, either. But Pickens came on strong in camp and hasn’t looked bad, offering highlight after highlight with excellent body control and big-play ability. In three preseason games, he produced 84 yards and a score on 8 receptions.
That has all led to Pickens looking like a starter in this offense, creating an opportunity for some valuable fantasy numbers early. The Pittsburgh offense doesn’t profile as an elite one, so Pickens might not have a huge ceiling, but a significant role even in an inefficient offense would be enough to have him threatening to crack the top 36 receivers, and his upside is even higher. Not bad for a player who was an afterthought at best entering the preseason.
Romeo Doubs, WR, Green Bay Packers
The Packers receiver group was an enigma all offseason, but an intriguing one, because there is big-time upside in being paired with back-to-back MVP Aaron Rodgers. Allen Lazard and rookie second-rounder Christian Watson appeared to have the advantage early, but after Watson had some issue with drops and an injury, fourth-rounder Romeo Doubs stepped up. He took advantage of the opportunity, displaying sure hands and some separation ability and producing 82 yards and 2 touchdowns on 8 receptions this preseason.
Ultimately, it appears he carved out an opportunity to be one of the top receivers in Green Bay to start the season, which could lead to significant fantasy production. That makes Doubs an intriguing late-round target.
