Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to Pope’s Pick 6. Twice a week I’ll be bringing you a quick look at my fantasy football thoughts in quick-hit form. Today, in our last Pope’s Pick 6 weekend before the regular season: Players who saw the biggest decrease in their fantasy stock over the training camp and preseason.
Every season, a handful of players impress in the preseason and see their fantasy stock shoot up, whether due to usage in preseason games, clarity on their health or players around them failing to impress. This year, we saw multiple rookies make impact plays en route to earning roles on their respective teams.
Additionally, we saw multiple veterans earn new roles and some lose previously secure jobs. With this, we turn our attention to six players who failed to take advantage of the preseason and watched their fantasy stock drop.
David Montgomery, RB, Chicago Bears
Over the past few years, David Montgomery has been a staple in the Bears offense. He has seen at least 267 touches every year while producing over 1,000 scrimmage yards every season of his career. In 2021, we saw Khalil Herbert emerge as a secondary option behind Montgomery. Herbert had an opportunity to be the lead guy in Weeks 6-8, and with this he posted 289 yards rushing and one touchdown on 60 attempts. This helped him post RB12 numbers during this span. However, once Montgomery returned from injury, it was the starter’s backfield again.
Heading into 2022, many believed that Montgomery and Herbert would split touches, but the lion’s share would go to Montgomery. This began to change throughout the preseason, as reports started coming out that Montgomery may not be the perfect fit in the new offense. Under offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, the Bears are using a perimeter attack run game as opposed to the more downhill gap scheme that fits Montgomery’s running style. There have since been murmurs that Herbert will see a significant increase in touches this season. For a player like Montgomery who has relied on volume, this is not good news. Montgomery’s fantasy value is far less secure than we thought at the beginning of the season.
Treylon Burks, WR, Tennessee Titans
Treylon Burks has big shoes to fill after being drafted by the Titans. Many expect him to replace A.J. Brown after having an exceptional college career, posting 2,621 yards and 19 touchdowns on 184 touches. However, once training camp began, the negative reports surfaced, largely due to Burks’ lack of conditioning. He struggled to make it through practices, which was not a good look for the rookie. Additionally, he had a hard time picking up the playbook. All of this has increased the question marks around a wide receiver who was already pegged as a “raw” talent.
On top of this, rookie Kyle Philips excelled in the preseason. Robert Woods ultimately won the lead role by the end of the preseason, while Nick Westbrook-Ikhine carved out the secondary role in the team’s first depth chart. It appears Treylon Burks won’t see the volume many of us expected this season. Burks’ fantasy value has significantly dropped throughout the preseason.
Isaiah Spiller, RB, Los Angeles Chargers
As soon as Isaiah Spiller was drafted in the fourth round of this year’s NFL Draft many penciled him in as the RB2 on the depth chart behind Austin Ekeler. This idea stuck all through minicamp and into the beginning of the preseason. This began to change quickly, as veterans Joshua Kelley and Larry Rountree outperformed him. Kelley led all Chargers running backs with 117 yards and one touchdown on 37 carries while playing all three preseason games. Meanwhile, Rountree only produced 31 yards and one touchdown on 13 carries in three games.
Spiller finished second on the team with 37 yards on 13 carries but only appeared in two games. He showed some good things but proved he is still very raw. If being outplayed by Kelley was not enough to sink Spiller’s value, the Chargers just signed the recently released Sony Michel. Michel’s addition will limit Spiller’s role even more in 2022, resulting in little to no fantasy value. This is drastically different from what many of us thought it could have been earlier this offseason.
Ronald Jones, RB, Kansas City Chiefs
After four years in Tampa Bay, Ronald Jones joined the Chiefs this offseason on a one-year deal. Many believed that Jones could carve out a decent role splitting time with Clyde Edwards-Helaire since the latter has struggled to find the end zone over his career.
This preseason, seventh-round rookie Isiah Pacheco had other plans. Pacheco exploded onto the scene and showed off his 4.3 speed which was a breath of fresh air for the Chiefs. He used every opportunity to produce 66 yards on 14 carries. Even though he still needs time to develop, he secured a roster spot. As a result, Jones barely stuck on the roster. Jones’ role is not as secure as we thought at the beginning of the preseason.
Jamison Crowder, WR, Buffalo Bills
After the Bills decided to part ways with Cole Beasley this offseason, they set their sights on replacing him. In house was Isaiah McKenzie, who re-signed after showing some nice potential at the end of the season last year. The Bills then brought in Jamison Crowder and drafted Khalil Shakir out of Boise State. With more experience and proven production, Crowder seemed like the frontrunner to replace Beasley. However, Crowder struggled with an injury early into camp and missed significant time, which opened the door for Shakir and McKenzie.
Throughout training camp, Shakir and McKenzie impressed the coaching staff. Shakir was one of the more productive receivers for the Bills in the preseason, grabbing eight receptions for 151 yards with big-play ability. On the flip side, McKenzie and Crowder only appeared in one game. McKenzie only had one reception for 10 yards, while Crowder had two receptions for 21 yards. It appears that McKenzie has earned the starting role over Crowder, ultimately sinking Crowder’s fantasy value.
Donovan Peoples-Jones, WR, Cleveland Browns
Donovan Peoples-Jones (DPJ) is not a household name, but at the beginning of the offseason, there was an opportunity to become a key part of the Browns offense. After the addition of Amari Cooper, he was in line to be the second wide receiver on the roster and possibly the team’s top deep threat. As the offseason went along, this opportunity seemed to close with rookie David Bell having looked solid in the preseason. Bell posted 82 yards on six receptions in only two games. Additionally, David Njoku posted 41 yards on four receptions. Peoples-Jones only had one reception for four yards in one game.
Peoples-Jones may still be the secondary perimeter wide receiver, but with the emergence of Bell and Njoku, his opportunities are limited. Even worse, Deshaun Watson is suspended for the first 11 weeks, leaving Jacoby Brissett to start for the Browns. Brissett has never passed for more than 3,100 yards in a season nor produced a top-24 fantasy wide receiver. Peoples-Jones is no longer even worth drafting, and it’s more likely he has no fantasy value in 2022.
