Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
I was ready to blame my Week 13 Survivor loss on Kenny Pickett’s injury and bad Pittsburgh weather, but then Jaylen Warren told reporters that the team took the terrible Cardinals team too lightly. Remind me to add Trap Game rankings to my Revenge Game rankings in 2024 if for some strange reason FTN wants me to write this column again.
Whatever, on to my Week 14 Survivor picks!
Week 14 NFL Eliminator Picks
Green Bay Packers
-6.5 at Giants
The Jets are in a bit of a quarterback pickle. (I know that’s not the New York team the Packers are playing this week, but bear with me.) They just released Tim Boyle, the quarterback that shadow GM Aaron Rodgers made them sign despite his 1:13 touchdown:interception ratio in college. Rodgers himself cannot play because he tore his Achilles in September, and no amount of attention-seeking will change his recovery timeline. Zach Wilson does not want to play — probably because the Jets failed to develop him for two seasons and then benched him twice for Rodgers and Boyle. And somehow even that became a Rodgers story after the veteran apparently advised Wilson to play and then blasted his new organization for talking to the media on his own weekly media appearance with Pat McAfee.
Jets head coach Robert Saleh said repeatedly in his Wednesday press conference that he wanted to handle all of that drama internally. Well guess what, Robert? You can’t, because you have Aaron Rodgers on your team. But you know what team can handle their drama internally? The Green Bay Packers. New quarterback Jordan Love did not respond to public doubts of his franchise quarterback status to the media. He responded by beating the Lions on Thanksgiving and Chiefs on Sunday Night Football. And I suspect Packers head coach Matt LaFleur will enjoy his time in New York this week a little more than Saleh has enjoyed his over the last few months. Give me the Packers over the Giants by multiple scores.
Miami Dolphins
-13 vs. Titans
There are two ways a quarterback and a receiver can handle a miscommunication on a deep route. They can yell at each other about it on the sideline like Will Levis and DeAndre Hopkins did. Or the receiver can adjust his route, catch the errant pass for a touchdown, and then pretend like it was his mistake in the first place like Tyreek Hill did. I wouldn’t say I’m concerned about the Titans team chemistry. But Hill would be poised to win the MVP this season if his former quarterback Patrick Mahomes were 10% worse and showed how terrible the Chiefs receivers look without Hill drawing defensive attention from them. But instead of airing his frustration and demanding the credit he deserved, Hill continued to prop up his new quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. The Dolphins feel like a Super Bowl team, and I don’t think the Titans can stand in their way.
New Orleans Saints
-5 vs. Panthers
This Big J Journalist knew that Panthers owner David Tepper wanted Bill Belichick as his next head coach well before Cam Newton revealed it on his 4th&1 podcast. I just didn’t know the lengths Tepper would be willing to go to get his man. In hindsight, it is now obvious that Tepper overruled Frank Reich and his front office and made the team draft a quarterback in Bryce Young who was too small to make it in the NFL all so he could fire Reich with apparent cause and improve the value of the future picks the Panthers still have and will need to trade to the Patriots for Belichick. How else could you explain it? Well, the Panthers can’t stop losing now that they are so close to Tepper’s vision for them. Derek Carr, Jameis Winston or even Taysom Hill and a few dozen wildcat carries: the Saints will win this game by double digits.
Cleveland Browns
-3 vs. Jaguars
The Ravens are the best AFC team this year and one of the best AFC teams in the history of the sport, according to DVOA. Other teams were sure to try to copy them. The NFL is a copycat league, I suspect you have heard. Well, it shouldn’t surprise you that the other AFC North teams with the most familiarity with the Ravens have copied them first. Yes, the Browns have turned to former Ravens Super Bowl winner Joe Flacco at quarterback with their normal starter Deshaun Watson out injured. And the Steelers have added former Ravens backup Trace McSorley to their practice squad and will undoubtedly start him for their injured starter Kenny Pickett after McSorley has a week of practice and current replacement Mitch Trubisky loses by 40 Thursday. If the Jaguars want to stay in the race for the No. 1 seed, then they need to talk former Lamar Jackson backup Robert Griffin III out of the announcer’s booth. And if they don’t realize that yet, they will when C.J. Beathard throws three picks Sunday. Give me the Baltimored Browns by 14 Sunday.
Atlanta Falcons
-1 vs. Bucs
These may seem like dark December days if you are trusting your Survivor fate to Arthur Smith and his Falcons this week. But with 13 already used teams, there aren’t many appealing options left. And at least the Falcons have the Revenge Game rankings in their favor.
Scott Miller, Falcons vs. Bucs
Scott Miller quietly left the Bucs for their division-rival Falcons for more receiving opportunities in the offseason. But he may not have thought of just having his wife Jenna air their frustrations for his lack of targets on her Instagram page.
Andy Dalton via Bryce Young, Panthers at Saints
The question isn’t whether Frank Reich should have benched Bryce Young for Andy Dalton. The question is whether the Saints should have kept Dalton and not pursued Derek Carr. And I think Dalton’s 6.6% passing DVOA from 2022 answers that pretty definitively. That’s better than Carr’s current 1.5% rate. And it’s better than Carr’s 2.1% rate from his final Raiders season that saw him benched for Jarrett Stidham. This former ginger author can spot an anti-red-hair bias from miles away.
Odell Beckham, Ravens vs. Rams
The new Ravens captain has “nothing but the utmost love and respect” for his former coach Sean McVay. But Odell Beckham could never have reached his potential next to Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. Not because there aren’t enough balls for three talented receivers. But because Nacua never shuts up about anime, and that harshes Beckham’s cool vibe.
David Montgomery, Lions at Bears
David Montgomery doesn’t seem to mind splitting the Lions carries with a talented rookie in Jahmyr Gibbs. “I’m happy that we’re winning. I’m happy with everything right now and we’re doing a great job right now. Jahmyr’s playing great ball and I’m playing some good ball, too. We also understand that we hold great value to this team, to this offense. We both know that they need us both, so whatever it may be, we’re ready for it.” Of course, it’s probably more fun to split carries with Gibbs than with Justin Fields because Gibbs lets Montgomery score all of the bunny touchdowns.
Sheldon Rankins, Texans at Jets
Sheldon Rankins didn’t ruffle many feathers when he left the Jets for the Texans in free agency. His former fellow defensive lineman Quinnen Williams was complimentary of his “dog” Rankins with reporters this week. And revenge seems to be the last thing on Rankins mind as he blocks for the cold-blooded C.J. Stroud instead of whichever dumpster fire the Jets roll out at quarterback this week.
If Mariah is this upset now, wait until she realizes Chris Godwin has two more red zone targets than his teammate Mike Evans despite nine fewer receiving touchdowns! It’s either sabotage or Baker Mayfield is a bad quarterback. Truly, who can say?
Scott’s Pick: Green Bay Packers
Scott’s Record: 11-2
