Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The UFC was initially scheduled to be in China this weekend, but plans changed, and Song Yadong and Chris Gutierrez will now headline the main event in the Apex. Song is fighting in his third main event in a row, while Gutierrez is fighting five rounds for the first time in the UFC.
The co-main event features Anthony Smith and Khalil Rountree Jr., as the veterans face off, still looking for a path to the belt. Tim Elliott steps in on short notice to replace Allan Nascimento against Su Mudaerji. Elliott is fighting for a third time in 2023 and looks to return to the win column. Mudaerji will make his first appearance in 2023 this weekend and looks to bounce back after a wild fight against Matt Schnell last year. Also on the card is Nasrat Haqparast, who looks to extend his winning streak to three fights when he toes the line against the hard-hitting Aussie Jamie Mullarkey.
There are 11 fights on the card this weekend, and below, I’ve broken down the main card and given you guys a best bet for each. All odds are per BetMGM.
Song vs. Gutierrez Odds
Song Yadong -370, Chris Gutierrez +295
After making his debut in China back in 2017, Song was set to make a return home to show his hometown how far he has come. But changes to the itinerary have moved this fight card back to Vegas, where Gutierrez steps up in a well-earned main event spot to fight song. Gutierrez debuted on The Ultimate Fighter in 2018 against Raoni Barcelos. “EL Guapo” lost that fight but would win seven consecutive. The streak was snapped earlier this year against Pedro Munhoz, who was able to land damaging blows early and stay ahead for three rounds, giving Gutierrez his second loss in the UFC. Gutierrez utilizes leg kicks, counter-striking, and excellent footwork to move in and out of the pocket.
Similarly, Song implements a pressure-striking style and athleticism that allows him to counter and move like Gutierrez. The difference is that Song likes to stay in the pocket and bang, while Gutierrez breaks his opponents down from range, beginning with their legs. Both fighters average 12 minutes of fight time, are identical in height and reach, and average five significant strikes landed per minute. Gutierrez absorbs slightly fewer strikes than Song, defending 65% of strikes coming his way compared to Song’s 59%. Where they differ is in the grappling and power department. Song fights out of Team Alpha Male, and while he loves to strike, he is very well-rounded and capable of changing levels to negate the movement of Gutierrez. Song also has the ultimate equalizer with his hands and can do what Munhoz did and land enough damage to hurt Gutierrez early or to end the fight altogether in an instant.
The pick is for Song to get this fight over late or on the scorecards. I’ll also have him in a couple of parlays and DFS lineups.
Bet: Song Yadong in Round 4 or 5 or by decision +105 | Song by KO/TKO or by decision -320 (parlay piece)
Smith vs. Rountree Odds
Anthony Smith +165, Khalil Rountree Jr. -190
Smith surprisingly continues his run in the light heavyweight division. This time, Rountree will try and retire him. I’ll be the first to admit that after Smith made his debut in the light heavyweight division in 2018 and ran through everyone in a year to get to Jon Jones. I believed he was the one. But the height of the championship fight and Jones were too much for Smith, and since that fight, he has been a mixed bag, going on winning and losing streaks. He seemed to be on his way out after an ugly loss to Johnny Walker went viral after Smith was heard screaming nonsense at Walker during the fight. An ugly win over Ryan Spann earlier this year put Smith back on the winning path. A win this weekend may not get him near a title shot, but perhaps it lets him keep his job in the octagon.
Rountree debuted in the UFC back in 2016. His power and subpar grappling skill got him to the big show, but it wasn’t until 2021 that his breakout performance would happen. Everything seems to be clicking for Rountree now, and this matchup against Smith is his fight to lose. Smith can threaten with his grappling, but at this stage in his career, I don’t think he can do enough to create damage or even get the fight to the ground. Rountree defends nearly 60% of takedowns, and even though he’s the smaller fighter, his reach, and vicious leg kicks should even out the range between fighters. Rountree also averages more significant strikes landed, which is essential because Smith’s durability has been suspect in recent years, and once Smith is hurt, his performance tends to dip.
I’m not going to overthink this fight and pick Rountree to land his power and get Smith out of the octagon and back behind the commentating table for good.
Bet: Khalil Rountree Jr. by KO/TKO or submission -135 | Rountree/Smith over 1.5 rounds +102 | Rountree by KO/TKO and Round 2 +650
Su Mudaerji vs. Elliott Odds
Su Mudaerji +113, Tim Elliott -133
With two fights already in 2023, Tim Elliott makes his third walk to the octagon this weekend on days’ notice after Mudaerji’s original opponent, Allan Nascimento, withdrew from the fight. Elliott has reignited his career after an ugly injury and personal life issues knocked him off his axis and almost cost him his job. A dominant performance over Victor Altamirano was probably the most dialed-in Elliott ever. Even in his most recent loss against Muhammad Mokaev, Elliott displayed a warrior spirit and took the rookie into deep waters before losing. Elliott has an awkward style and fights behind his relentless pace and enough volume to break his opponents. He also is a high-level grappler who averages nearly four takedowns per 15 minutes. He isn’t much of a submission Hunter but controls enough of the fight on the ground to limit the game plan of his opponents.
Mudaerji fights out of China and has been with the UFC since 2018. Losing his debut to Louis Smolka by submission cooled off any initial hype coming into the UFC, but a three-fight winning streak following his debut would keep him in the big show. It wasn’t until his fight against Matt Schnell last year that Mudaerji became a household name. It was a fight of the year that displayed nothing but violence for two rounds. He hurt Schnell early but found himself in a war when Schnell decided to bite down on his mouthpiece and pressure. The fight ended in the second round by submission, but the loss didn’t hurt Mudaerji’s stock; if anything, it helped. A win over his original opponent would been nice. Still, a win over Elliott will boost his stock higher, in my opinion, because of the possibility that this fight is a war and another FOTY contender. Mudaerji is well-rounded and can stop takedowns, but I worry about his durability as, in the past, he has slowed down after pace and pressure were put on him, and he wasn’t able to use his movement and range.
Both fighters average over 1.5 rounds of fight time, and because I expect Elliott to wrestle heavily, I can see this fight going the distance and, at the very least, over 2.5 rounds. Elliott has never been knocked out, and most of his losses have been by Dec. Considering Mudaerji has never won inside the UFC by submission, I don’t expect him to be offensive with his grappling either. I want to thank Allan Nascimento for pulling out of the fight and giving the fans an exciting matchup. The Pick is Tim Elliott to lean on his grit, pace, and experience to get him the submission finish or win on the scorecards.
Bet: Mudaerji/Elliott over 2.5 rounds +102 | Tim Elliott ML -130
Haqparast vs. Mullarkey Odds
Nasrat Haqparast -186, Jamie Mullarkey +161
Haqparast vs. Australia’s Mullarkey is a battle between fringe lightweight contenders looking to stay relevant. Haqparast has been with the UFC since 2017. Even after a loss in his debut, he showed enough talent that he remained relevant. He went on a three-fight win streak after that initial loss, only to be humbled by Drew Dober in 2020. Since that loss, Haqparast has won two, then lost two, and now is on another two-fight winning streak. The problem for Haqparast seems to be mental as he possesses all the tools to become champion but makes mistakes in fights that he should dominate, leaving his opponents room to make comebacks. His last fight was a perfect example of his mistakes; he fought a debutant, and even though he was winning, he only managed to squeak by that fight because of the damage he absorbed. Haqparast averages nearly 13 minutes of fight time, averaging a high volume of Strikes and landing 5.63 significant strikes per minute. He also has good takedown defense, defending 76% of takedowns coming his way, which will serve him well against Mullarkey, who has been implementing more wrestling into his game plans lately.
Mullarkey averages 2.46 takedowns per 15 minutes; he has power in his hands and averages nearly five significant strikes landed per minute. The problem with Mullarkey is his chin. Mullarkey came into the UFC with good size and a brawler style; he has had to change tactics to win fights, but once his wrestling doesn’t work, he resorts back to brawling, and that is where the problem lies. Haqparast has all the tools to become a world-class athlete, and this matchup is perfect for him to make a statement. Mullarkey will continue to be a negative fighter because of his durability problems.
The pick is for Haqparast to find a finish late because both fighters average over two rounds of fight time, and most of Mullarkey’s stoppage losses happened outside of the first round.
Bet: Nasrat Haqparast in Round 3 or by decision -115 | Haqparast by KO/TKO or decision -192
Muniz vs. Park Odds
Andre Muniz +142, Jun Yong Park -162
Making his third appearance in 2023, “The Iron Turtle,” Park looks to collect another scalp when he faces off against Muniz. Muniz has also fought twice this year but hasn’t had much success, as both losses have seen him fall off the cliff in the middle of the fight. Muniz fights behind his grappling and his most dangerous skill set, jiujitsu. Still, a lack of striking technique leaves Muniz vulnerable to fighters that can outlast his grappling onslaught and eventually take him out once he gasses out or has no other answers. He has a win over grappling legend Ronaldo Souza, which displays how dangerous he is. Still, if he doesn’t evolve soon, his low-output/high-grappling style will become predictable and make it hard for him to gain any traction toward the belt.
Park has been evolving since his debut back in 2019. Initially noticed for his durability and grit, Park has power in his hands and recently has developed a well-rounded grappling game, which indicates that Park can succeed wherever the fight takes place. The pick is Park, who not only averages a higher significant strike output by nearly triple but also can stop the takedown attempts, averaging a 70% takedown defense, which nullifies Muniz. I wouldn’t be surprised if Muniz can submit Park. He is world-class on the ground, but the expectation is for Park to outlast the Brazilian and find a third-round stoppage.
Bet: Jun Yong Park by KO/TKO or decision -125
