NFL Splits Tool, Week 15: Big Games to Monitor

The NFL is back, and so too is the fantasy football splits series, now featuring in-season data. Each week, I’ll be using the FTN Fantasy Splits Tool to look at how changes in environment and situations have impacted teams/players in the past, projecting their outlook going forward. Most of the content will be centered around injuries, thanks to our new partnership with Dr. David Chao and Sports Injury Central. For those of you unfamiliar with the website, it’s a one-stop shop to keep fans, gamblers, and fantasy players up to date on the latest injuries, covering all major sports such as the NFL, CFB, NBA and MLB.

SIC have a new feature – The Injury Edge – Your NFL Matchup Cheat Sheet.

It’s a tool for quickly seeing which teams have a health-based advantage each week using the proven SIC Health Score algorithm.
The SIC Health Score algorithm has seen teams with a 10+ health advantage win at over 58% Against The Spread over 4 NFL seasons!

FTN subscribers can get one free week of premium access to see all of The Injury Edge, plus all of the team and player health scores in SIC Data! Just go to sicscore.com/premium and select the weekly SIC Data subscription, then apply the promo code FTN.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Indianapolis Colts

Colts -1.5, O/U 42

Steelers

The Steelers season has taken a turn for the worse the past two weeks, getting upset at home by the Cardinals and suffering a humiliating loss in prime time to Bailey Zappe and company. After snapping their 58-game streak of less than 400 yards of offense in Week 12, the team has been below that in each of their last two losses. Mitch Trubisky has handled the bulk of snaps under center during that span, stepping in for Kenny Pickett mid-game in Week 13 and making his first official start last Thursday. Trubisky didn’t look great, but he got home for fantasy, finishing as a top-eight quarterback against the Patriots. He also kept Diontae Johnson afloat, with Johnson catching a touchdown and finishing as a WR2 in two consecutive games. Johnson has been hard to count over the last two seasons, but his production has been a lot more stable playing alongside Trubisky. 

Trubisky will start in Week 15 and possibly for the rest of the season, depending on Pickett’s health.

Colts

The Colts’ four-game win streak came to an end in Week 14, losing 34-14 to the Bengals in Cincinnati. However, they’re still firmly in the playoff picture, just one game behind the Jaguars in the AFC South, with a chance to jump the Steelers for the sixth seed in the conference. As 2.5-point favorites this weekend, the team will likely keep Jonathan Taylor out for at least one more week, hoping to get him back at full strength in the postseason.

In Taylor’s absence, Zack Moss should continue to dominate all the work in the backfield, recording an 80%-plus snap share and 75%-plus rush share in each of his last two games.

Game Prop

Diontae Johnson Over 3.5 Receptions

(-145, Bet365)

Diontae Johnson has caught four passes in two out of his last three games, falling one grab short in Mitch Trubisky’s first start. He still saw seven targets on the day, posting a team-high 21% target share & 51% air yard share. Since the start of last season, Johnson is averaging 6.9 receptions on double-digit targets (10.3) with Trubisky under center for most of the game. 

New York Giants @ New Orleans Saints

Saints -6, O/U 37.5

Giants

The Giants activated Tyrod Taylor ahead of Week 14 but continued to roll with Tommy DeVito, who won the NFC Player of the Week, likely locking down the starting role for the rest of the season. DeVito didn’t do much through the air, completing just 17 passes for 158 yards and a touchdown. However, he had his best day as a rusher, setting season-highs in carries (10) and rushing yards (71). Saquon Barkley also had a lot of success on the ground, rushing for 80-plus yards and finishing as a top-five running back in two of his last three games. Despite seeing fewer opportunities and touches with DeVito under center, Barkley’s fantasy production has improved playing alongside the rookie quarterback, scoring touchdowns at a much higher rate.