NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
The NFL is back, and so too is the fantasy football splits series, now featuring in-season data. Each week, I’ll be using the FTN Fantasy Splits Tool to look at how changes in environment and situations have impacted teams/players in the past, projecting their outlook going forward. Most of the content will be centered around injuries, thanks to our new partnership with Dr. David Chao and Sports Injury Central. For those of you unfamiliar with the website, it’s a one-stop shop to keep fans, gamblers, and fantasy players up to date on the latest injuries, covering all major sports such as the NFL, CFB, NBA and MLB.
SIC have a new feature – The Injury Edge – Your NFL Matchup Cheat Sheet.
It’s a tool for quickly seeing which teams have a health-based advantage each week using the proven SIC Health Score algorithm.
The SIC Health Score algorithm has seen teams with a 10+ health advantage win at over 58% Against The Spread over 4 NFL seasons!
FTN subscribers can get one free week of premium access to see all of The Injury Edge, plus all of the team and player health scores in SIC Data! Just go to sicscore.com/premium and select the weekly SIC Data subscription, then apply the promo code FTN.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Indianapolis Colts
Colts -1.5, O/U 42
Steelers
The Steelers season has taken a turn for the worse the past two weeks, getting upset at home by the Cardinals and suffering a humiliating loss in prime time to Bailey Zappe and company. After snapping their 58-game streak of less than 400 yards of offense in Week 12, the team has been below that in each of their last two losses. Mitch Trubisky has handled the bulk of snaps under center during that span, stepping in for Kenny Pickett mid-game in Week 13 and making his first official start last Thursday. Trubisky didn’t look great, but he got home for fantasy, finishing as a top-eight quarterback against the Patriots. He also kept Diontae Johnson afloat, with Johnson catching a touchdown and finishing as a WR2 in two consecutive games. Johnson has been hard to count over the last two seasons, but his production has been a lot more stable playing alongside Trubisky.
Trubisky will start in Week 15 and possibly for the rest of the season, depending on Pickett’s health.
Colts
The Colts’ four-game win streak came to an end in Week 14, losing 34-14 to the Bengals in Cincinnati. However, they’re still firmly in the playoff picture, just one game behind the Jaguars in the AFC South, with a chance to jump the Steelers for the sixth seed in the conference. As 2.5-point favorites this weekend, the team will likely keep Jonathan Taylor out for at least one more week, hoping to get him back at full strength in the postseason.
In Taylor’s absence, Zack Moss should continue to dominate all the work in the backfield, recording an 80%-plus snap share and 75%-plus rush share in each of his last two games.
Game Prop
Diontae Johnson Over 3.5 Receptions
(-145, Bet365)
Diontae Johnson has caught four passes in two out of his last three games, falling one grab short in Mitch Trubisky’s first start. He still saw seven targets on the day, posting a team-high 21% target share & 51% air yard share. Since the start of last season, Johnson is averaging 6.9 receptions on double-digit targets (10.3) with Trubisky under center for most of the game.
New York Giants @ New Orleans Saints
Saints -6, O/U 37.5
Giants
The Giants activated Tyrod Taylor ahead of Week 14 but continued to roll with Tommy DeVito, who won the NFC Player of the Week, likely locking down the starting role for the rest of the season. DeVito didn’t do much through the air, completing just 17 passes for 158 yards and a touchdown. However, he had his best day as a rusher, setting season-highs in carries (10) and rushing yards (71). Saquon Barkley also had a lot of success on the ground, rushing for 80-plus yards and finishing as a top-five running back in two of his last three games. Despite seeing fewer opportunities and touches with DeVito under center, Barkley’s fantasy production has improved playing alongside the rookie quarterback, scoring touchdowns at a much higher rate.
The offense has been humming with DeVito at the helm and may look even better with Darren Waller potentially making his return this upcoming week.
Saints
The Saints finally got back on track in Week 14, snapping their three-game losing streak and securing a critical win in the division against the Panthers. The offense wasn’t great, totaling just 207 yards on the day, but still scored 28 points, despite missing key players from the lineup. The team should get back Taysom Hill and Rashid Shaheed this week, who were both limited at practice Wednesday. However, Chris Olave’s status is much more up in the air, listed as a DNP due to an ankle injury.
Olave has been unstoppable since Michael Thomas went down, recording a 48% air-yard share since Week 10, with 95-plus receiving yards in three of his last four games.
Game Prop
Jamaal Williams Longest Rush Under 9.5 Yards
(-120, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Jamaal Williams has recorded a rush for double-digit yards just three times this season, which includes a game before Alvin Kamara returned from his suspension. Williams went over this mark in Week 14, seeing increased usage without Taysom Hill, and facing a Panthers defense ranked dead last in DVOA against the rush. With Kamara and Hill both active, Williams is averaging 12.2 total rushing yards per game and just 4.2 carries.
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The Browns are a few wins away from clinching a playoff berth but continue to get ravaged with injuries on both sides of the ball, placing Jedrick Wills, Dawand Jones, Grant Delpit and Ogbonnia Okoronkwo on season-ending IR earlier this week. Joe Flacco has been a perfect 2-0 as the starter but now faces a feisty Bears team that has started to turn the corner, riding a four-game win streak, with an undefeated record since Justin Fields returned to the lineup. How will the mounting injuries on the offensive line impact Flacco and the passing game? Can the defense step up as they have all season, entering Week 15 ranked No. 1 overall in DVOA? Find out for yourself by using “The Injury Edge NFL Matchup Cheat Sheet,” exclusive to Sports Injury Central subscribers. Get one week free by using the promo code “FTN” at checkout!
