Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Each week during the NFL season, I offer “The Breakdown,” a deep game-by-game DFS breakdown that covers game theory as well as player/game analysis for the full NFL weekend slate. If you have been with me from a past life, welcome back! I know there are many game-by-game articles out there, so I truly appreciate the loyalty.
This is a sneak peek. The Breakdown drops on Saturdays, but for a free taste this week, we’re featuring one game as a free preview. Check out a full breakdown of Sunday afternoon’s featured game below, and come back Saturday to see the whole Week 6 main slate put under the microscope.
(Check out the full Week 6 Breakdown!)
#FTNDaily
(Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook as of the start of the week.)
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GB -1.5. O/U: 54
GB: 27.5 | TB: 26.5
Pace and playcalling
Bettors are liking this game to be fantasy-friendly, betting it from 52 to 54 with both the public and% of money backing the OVER (TB/GB are a combined 6-3 to the OVER). There has also been heavy line movement for the Pack (38 PPG, first), with them turning into a road favorite after opening as a 3-point dog. GB is not only undefeated on the field, but they are also 4-0 ATS.
Green Bay is dominating their opponents, averaging 14.61 net yards per drive, 40% higher than second-place Indianapolis. What makes that statistic more impressive is the Packers haven’t had Davante Adams for a big chunk of the season, but Adams will be back in the lineup Sunday, which makes this team very scary for Tampa Bay and the NFC.
Green Bay plays below average in terms of neutral pace, and the slowest in the second half of games, a result of being 4-0. GB has the eighth-lowest pass rate and stayed run heavy on the 60-plus snaps they were trailing by 3 or more. They go down to a 48% pass rate when up at least 7, which is why Aaron Rodgers is only averaging 34.8 pass attempts per game (23rd).
The Buccaneers push their opponents into elevated pass rates with a stout run defense (2.48 RB yards per carry allowed), seeing teams pass on 64.26% of plays (fourth) after finishing first in 2019.
Green Bay runs 65.2 plays per game, which is league average, but makes up for that by being the most efficient offense thus far. The Packers average the most yards per play, red-zone attempts and points per drive (3.97 — 0.71 better than Seattle; Green Bay averages 4.5 TDs per game, second to the Seahawks).
Tampa Bay (28.3 PPG over its last three) has logical pace splits —30.79 seconds when in the lead (21st) and 23.44 seconds per play when trailing by 7 or more (sixth-fastest). They are passing at the sixth-highest overall rate and second-highest once they trail by a field goal (74% pass rate). Even when in the lead, they pass at a healthy 57% rate (fourth). Unlike Green Bay, Tampa Bay needs the extra plays and pace, ranking 19th in points per drive and 25th in yards per drive, putting them down with the Giants and Bears in that regard.
The Bruce Arians/Byron Leftwich offense has had early-game success, averaging 9.6 PPG in the first quarter (most) after finishing third last season. Green Bay starts off a bit slower (6 points per game in the first) but has put up 14 points per second quarter (second-most). If those trends continue, this game should fly over this high total.
Taking a look at where the targets are being distributed, both of these teams are in the top-five in targets to running backs, with the Packers second at 31.6%. That should level off some now that Adams is coming back, but they were top-seven in 2019 so they will still be a team that targets their backs often. Tom Brady has historically loved to throw to his backs, so we shouldn’t be surprised to see TB go from 19th last year with Jameis Winston to sixth in 2020 (25.6%).
Brady also loves TEs (not breaking news), which has Tampa Bay seventh in TE target share, up from 17th in 2019. That means the WRs have to be getting less usage. With the constant injuries to both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, TB is 30th in WR target rate (46.6%).
Packers
Efficiency outweighs volume when you are really good, and that’s what Aaron Rodgers has been. He is first in fantasy points per dropback at 0.7, which has him as fantasy’s QB6 for the season. Other positive metrics pointing up for the veteran: 6.8 deep ball attempts (second), third-best protection rate, sixth in red-zone pass attempts (7.5), and first in adjusted yards per attempt (10.4).
DFS rewards those who act quickly, and those who keep focusing on his less than great 2018 and 2019 campaigns are missing out on a Hall of Famer ballin’ out. Rodgers is almost 37, which is not “old” for QBs and their ceilings. We have seen Brady, Drew Brees and Peyton Manning in the very recent past have massive fantasy years at 37 and older (Manning was 37 for his 55-touchdown season in Denver).
A big reason for the success in Green Bay is the offensive line (lowest pressure rate allowed). They have allowed Rodgers time to survey and pick apart defenses (77% completion rate when clean, 33% when under pressure). Like most games, pass rush will be a huge factor, as Tampa ranks fifth in pressure rate on the third-highest blitz percentage. Green Bay has played a very soft schedule in this regard too, with Detroit, New Orleans and Atlanta ranking in the bottom-12 in pressure rate.
Rodgers’ expected points added are +9.8 due to the big yards-after-catch numbers the Packers have racked up (4.42 YAC, fourth). But he is -1.4 in terms of passing TDs, despite tossing 13 without an INT. That tells us there is nothing alarming to signal negative regression, especially with Davante Adams back and a nice upcoming schedule with Jacksonville, Minnesota and Houston coming up after the game in Tampa.
The Buccaneers have allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to QBs, but they have faced Nick Foles, Kirk Cousins, Matthew Stafford and Matt Ryan. That was a formidable list once upon a time, but this year that’s just four QBs ranking in the bottom-12.
Like most QBs, Rodgers excels in large-total games, averaging over 25 fantasy points in his last 12 (+4 FPPG), so there is only his price being a deterrent. He has moved from $6.2k to $7.5k in just two weeks, putting him up in “QBs that can run the ball” tier with Lamar Jackson and Deshaun Watson. Rodgers isn’t running anymore, ranking 39th in QB carries so we can’t use him in cash, but he is a strong GPP play
Aaron Jones continues to beast, especially with Adams out of the lineup. Using our NFL Splits tool, you can see Jones becomes Christian McCaffrey with the star receiver out, catching two more passes, dominating red-zone work (4 TDs in 6 games), averaging 27.13 FPPG on DK. That said, Jones’ numbers with Adams are still great, as are his splits when getting 14-plus carries regardless of Adams. In those games, Jones is averaging over 26 FPPG on DK, which jumps over 29 over his last 10 games with 14-plus carries. The GB offensive line is also dominating in the run, ranking fourth in adjusted line yards at 4.82 yards per carry (5.27 RB YPC, fifth). They are also third in second-level and fifth in open field rank, the only team in the top-five in all three categories. Jason Pierre-Paul was quoted this week saying, “No one runs on this (Tampa) D,” and that would continue despite the loss of their big DT, Vita Vea (second in PFF DL grades).
Tampa is brutal to run against (third in DVOA), though the loss of DT Vita Vea is significant. Either way, TB is a great defense for RBs in the passing game, allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to RBs through the air. The Buccaneers have already allowed two RBs to catch at least seven balls, including David Montgomery, whose career-high before that game was only four receptions. Regardless of the potential passing-game work, we don’t want to pay up for Jones in a tough matchup and Adams back on the field, which is why he is listed as GPP only (Jones is the most expensive RB on DK, with McCaffrey and Dalvin Cook OUT).
Davante Adams is back and should resume his role as a target hog (17 targets in Week 1). He could even get a bump in usage (if that is possible), with WR2 Allen Lazard OUT again (16.8% target share). Carlton Davis did a great job on Michael Thomas in Week 1, holding him to 3-17-0 and is a good CB, one of the best right now. That said, he allowed 9-109-0 to Robby Anderson in Week 2 and 10-90-0 to Allen Robinson last game. Regardless of whether Davis plays (he’s dealing with an abdominal issue), Adams will be heavily targeted. When you could see 15 targets or more, even a bad 50% catch rate gets you to 7-8 receptions, so I am not going to worry about him in GPPs. Davis has also not been traveling into the slot much (4.5%), so Adams can move inside (18% slot rate in 2019) to pick on Sean Murphy-Bunting. At his high prices, coming off an injury, he won’t make it into the Sunday morning cash core unless Davis is ruled OUT, but I will have him on at least one of my three-max lineups.
Robert Tonyan has been an obsession of mine, so it was awesome to watch him break the showdown slate with three TDs on 6 receptions (98 yards, 6 targets). Like I said last year, and then again in week one, these no-name players that ball-out in college (150 passes in three seasons at nearly 14 yards per reception and 20 TDs) can pop once given the opportunity, especially when the opportunity comes on an Aaron Rodgers heater.
Bob Tonyan, just sounds like a big blocking TE, but he is a converted WR who is perfect for today’s game, an athletic or “move TE”, that lines up in the slot nearly as much as a traditional TE (40.2% of snaps from the slot). With Adams back, and his price highly elevated, he will be very contrarian despite two consecutive top-four TE finishes (he’s currently projected at 5% or less per our FTN ownership projection model). Yes, he did this with Adams out. It is a solid and logical argument. With Lazard OUT and the Pack already searching for a viable complement to Adams and Jones after not addressing the need in the off-season, I don’t see them sending Tonyan back to obscurity. Marcedes Lewis should be back, but he is all kinds of old and runs like Eliot Crist (slowly).
Lining up GB and TB directional passing charts via Sharp Football Stats you can see this is a favorable matchup for Tonyan.
*Tampa D passer rating allowed
*Rodgers passer rating to each receiver in different parts of the field
Marquez Valdes-Scantling is most affected with Adams coming back, after seeing 19 targets in three games with Adams out. That said, his biggest game this season came with Adams on the field in Week 1. He has been brutally inefficient (108th true catch rate), let’s just hope he doesn’t troll Adams, Jones or Tonyan. Same story for Jamaal Williams, who had 8-95-0 last game through the air with all the WRs out. We just have to hope he goes back to being quiet (5 targets in first three games).
Injuries
- Kevin King missed practice after playing just 43% of snaps in Chicago. There are no other significant players missing practice, just limited early, which means nothing. If anything pops up, I will update.
Buccaneers
Fellow old man Tom Brady continues to defy Father Time, ranking seventh on the Sunday slate and 10th overall in terms of DK fantasy points per game, ahead of Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow and Matt Ryan, to name a few. This has been without his pair of stud WRs being on the field at the same time for the majority of the season. He is averaging 2.5 fantasy points per game more with both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin on the field, which has only been two games and only one game where both played more than 81% of snaps (Week 1). Brady has had three top-12 finishes, with the one 36.6-point explosion. He is in that middle section of QB pricing, making him too expensive for cash games and thus “GPP only.” We only pay up at QB for players who can get points with their legs in cash.
Green Bay is not rushing the passer well, ranking 30th in pressure rate, which is the recipe Brady needs in these golden years. Like most QBs his pressure splits are dramatic, losing 40% on his completion rate when under duress. Packers have allowed a healthy 72% completion rate against for over 8 Y/A, and two or more TD passes allowed per game in three of four.
Ronald Jones has taken advantage of his opportunity, getting 46 touches and 253 total yards in his two games with Leonard Fournette sidelined (20.15 fantasy points per game for Jones without scoring a TD). He saw 14 targets, catching 9 for 36 yards, another promising sign for his value. GB plays a smart brand of defense, not worrying too much about rush D while focusing on the pass. Teams that do the opposite, whether intentionally or not, push teams into more pass attempts, which we know is the more efficient style of offense. This year GB keeps winning, which is pushing their opponents into more pass attempts, with their opponents passing at a 62.23% rate, up from 56% in 2019. With his price up and Fournette back, Jones also lands in the GPP pile, but a strong play for your GB stacks at low ownership (6% or less).
Mike Evans leads all receivers in touchdowns, seeing 21% of Brady’s RZ attempts and catching all five of his goal-line targets for 5 TDs. With him being so dependent on TDs, his expected points stick out (+15.5 over expected). Jaire Alexander is one of the better CBs and will shadow a team’s best WR. If Godwin is back, Evans becomes hard to use in this matchup. With Godwin on the field, Evans has 4 targets a game, compared to 9 without. Save him for large-field GPPs only if you mass multi-enter.
With O.J. Howard lost for the season, Cameron Brate played a season-high 46% of snaps last week, basically the same Howard was getting and matching his season-high 6 targets. Before getting too excited about Brate (5-44-0), the Buccaneers do want to use Tanner Hudson (targeted on 4 of his 8 routes).
Rob Gronkowski (limited, shoulder) saw six targets last week (3-52-0). He looks like he is running in cement, which is kind of sad considering the player he was. He is 25th or lower in numerous stats that matter, like FP per route run, and yards per route run. He is only seeing 10% of Brady’s RZ targets also which lowers his ceiling. He may pop once or twice this year with TDs, but it won’t be on my team.
Chris Godwin (hamstring) practiced in a limited capacity Wednesday and Thursday, which is encouraging for a return. Check back as the week progresses for more GOATwin news. He has the best matchup for TB inside against Will Redmond and Josh Jackson.
Injuries
- Mike Evans is playing banged-up (ankle), so will likely not be practicing much. I expect him to play, just like last week in CHI when he followed the same (no) practice schedule.
- Scott Miller (hip/groin) is also on the preliminary injury report and was limited. Tyler Johnson outsnapped him last week, playing his career-high 79% and seeing 6 targets to Miller’s 0. This is a situation to monitor with the WR playing opposite of Evans likely getting the softer matchup with Jaire Alexander likely shadowing Evans for the majority of snaps.
- Justin Watson is trending in a good direction after getting in a full practice. He has run 50% of his snaps out of the slot, so would likely need Godwin out to be viable, and even then, he’s a WR4 or WR5 at best.
- Leonard Fournette (ankle) was limited in practice Wednesday. He was an active last game but only played one snap.
- LeSean McCoy was OUT last week with a Grade 2 ankle sprain. With Lenny healthier and Ke’Shawn Vaughn finally seeing the field, it looks like that’s a wrap for Shady.
- TE OJ Howard and DT Vita Vea were both lost for the season. Both are significant, but losing a defensive tackle of Vea’s stature stands out. The Bucs have been lights out against the run and Vea is always in the middle (literally). When asked about the loss, Arians responded: “It’ll be a big loss. [When] you lose players like O.J. [Howard] and Vita, you can plug the next man in, but they’re not the same. I hate it for him because he was having such a great year.” Then he said this when the Buccaneers got back to work on Tuesday: “No one’s going to be Vita, but Todd [Bowles] has a good plan.” (source: Buccaneers.com).
- A big injury to monitor for fantasy is CB Carlton Davis (abdomen), who has been great this season, allowing a 65.0 passer rating in coverage.
Core plays: Chris Godwin ($6.4k on DK is so nice for Godwin. I am assuming he is playing; if he is ruled out I will update. At $7.7k on FD, he is GPP only. At that price, I would rather go a bit further and play Calvin Ridley)
GPP only (in order of exposure): Davante Adams ($9k on FD and $8k on DK, which is a tough price to pay anytime for a WR, especially on the 0.5 PPR site. With Carlton Davis trending in the right direction, I can’t pay that premium in cash).
Even though I only have Godwin in CORE plays from this game, I am on it as a full game stack in three-max, and don’t hate it in single entry (3-2 is normally my stack preference, which means a QB with two passing options, PLUS two players from the opposing team that correlate well).
Rodgers/Adams/Jones and Rodgers/Tonyan/Adams are my top GB stacks. My preferred runbacks are Ronald Jones, in addition to Godwin (of course).
Tom Brady/Godwin/Brate stacks are also something I have built, running it back with AAaron Jones and/or Adams. You can also mix in Evans and Tonyan if you are making multiple gamestacks.
