Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Everyone loves to bet individual player props for the Super Bowl, adding even more interest to the biggest sporting event of the season. Using our incredible tools at FTN Bets, we can analyze each player’s strengths and project where they can see success in the grand finale of the 2022 NFL season.
Here are my thoughts on each individual skill position player for the Philadelphia Eagles for Super Bowl LVII.
Jalen Hurts, QB
One of the biggest questions during the 2022 preseason was whether Jalen Hurts was really a franchise quarterback. The 24-year-old Oklahoma product provided a crystal-clear answer by guiding the Eagles to a 14-3 record and their fourth Super Bowl in franchise history. Hurts was the premier dual-threat quarterback in the league this season, ranking first in quarterback rushing attempts (135) and rushing touchdowns (13).
Hurts has found success against every type of defense this season, preparing him well for Super Bowl LVII. Per the FTN Advanced Stats Tool, Hurts has faced blitz pressure on 32% of his passes, much higher than Josh Allen (22%), Joe Burrow (21%) or Patrick Mahomes (20%). He faces a Chiefs defense that has struggled mightily at limiting opposing quarterbacks, allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to the positions in 2022. Whether by air or by foot, the dynamic Philadelphia signal-caller will provide Kansas City’s defense their greatest challenge of the season.
Miles Sanders, RB
What a difference a year makes? Just one year after playing only 12 games and scoring zero touchdowns, Miles Sanders exploded for 1,269 rushing yards and produced 11 overall scores for the Eagles. Sanders is part of a three-player running back rotation with Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott. Philadelphia maximized Sanders’ efficiency by ranking first overall among all NFL teams in rushing attempts per game (33.3).
Our FTN Pace & Playcalling data illustrates the ideal offensive situation in which Sanders resides. Philadelphia currently carries a perfect 50-50 split in their run/pass percentage. The Eagles use a no-huddle attack on 18.8% of their plays (fourth most). While they rank 12th overall with 26.6 seconds per snap, they dramatically slow down in the second half to 28.6 seconds per play, sixth slowest among all NFL teams. If the Eagles can grab a lead over the Chiefs, look for Sanders to see strong second-half opportunities in the Super Bowl.
Kenneth Gainwell, RB
Miles Sanders was the clear lead back, but the versatile Kenneth Gainwell produced in his RB2 role. Despite carrying just a 26% snap share throughout the season, Gainwell tallied seven games of two or more receptions with four total touchdowns. His role has greatly increased in the playoffs, with a combined 26 carries, 195 total yards and a touchdown in two wins over the Giants and 49ers.
As yet another all-around running back from the Memphis pipeline, Gainwell’s playoff usage can be reflected in our FTN Bets Player Utilization Tool. During the regular season, Gainwell totaled averages of 29% route participation and 15% of targets per route run. In the playoffs, those marks have increased to 36% route participation and 22% targets per route run. If you are looking for a Super Bowl sleeper for the Eagles, Gainwell is a great choice.
Boston Scott, RB
Though used sparingly for much of the season, Boston Scott continues to find efficiency when called upon. Scott has found the end zone in Philadelphia’s last three games and four of the last seven contests. Residing in the Eagles run-heavy attack, Scott is always just one injury away from immediate in-game relevancy.
Despite his diminutive size, Scott’s rushing efficiency also comes inside the tackles. Per the FTN Directional Tool, the fifth-year veteran RB averaged an eye-popping 6.5 YPA on inside runs to the left, clearly beating Sanders’ own sturdy 5.1 YPA. Over the past two seasons, Scott has produced 10 touchdowns on just 159 total touches.
A.J. Brown, WR
The Titans traded A.J. Brown to the Eagles for the Nos. 18 and 101 overall picks in the 2022 NFL Draft, and were thrilled with the results. Brown sets career-best in every offensive category, finishing second among all wide receivers with 11 touchdowns. His 10-reception, 155-yard Week 1 performance at Detroit proved to be a harbinger of great things to come, as he tallied 10 weeks of five or more receptions throughout the 2022 season.
Brown has been at his best in high-scoring games, as shown by our FTN Splits Tool. In games with a projected total of 47 points or higher, Brown has seen a substantial increase in targets, receptions, receiving yards and opportunity.
Combine this with Kansas City’s second-worst DVOA against No. 1 WRs this year (per FootballOutsiders), and all signs point to a big day for the Eagles star wideout.
DeVonta Smith, WR
The electric Alabama product entered 2022 with concerns that A.J. Brown would limit his production upside during his second NFL season. Those concerns were unsubstantiated, as DeVonta Smith thrived with quarterback Jalen Hurts. He saw huge improvement in targets (136), receptions (95), receiving yards (1,196) and touchdowns (7). Smith was even more consistent than Brown, reaching five or more receptions in 12 of his 17 games played.
Smith was an even bigger part of the offense in close matchups. Using our FTN Splits Tool, we can see that the 24-year-old wideout was at his best when the Eagles were less than a five-point favorite, especially with a 77.7% increase in receiving yards.
Dallas Goedert, TE
There were high hopes for Philadelphia tight end Dallas Goedert entering this season. He was coming off a 2021 campaign where he tallied career-highs in receiving yards (830), yards per reception (14.8) and PPR fantasy points per game (11.0). After suffering a shoulder injury against Washington in Week 10, it appeared Goedert’s offensive production would be limited for the end of the season. However, over the past three weeks the 28-year-old tight end has been superb, totaling 18 targets, six red zone targets and 16 receptions on over a 96-snap share. Goedert is completely healthy, playing with a confident franchise quarterback, and seeing critical scoring opportunities.
Using the FTN Stats Hub 1.0, we can see that Goedert is one of the most explosive tight ends in the league. His 7.6 yards after the catch per reception is significantly higher than the other elite NFL tight ends.
Despite missing five games due to the injury, his per game production was consistently among the best at his position this season.
Jake Elliott, K
Jake Elliott has had fewer chances than opposing kickers due to the Eagles offensive efficiency and willingness to go for it on fourth down. However, he has extremely reliable on extra points, making 51 of a league-leading 53 attempts. Elliott has also been fantastic from short range, going a perfect 6-of-6 from under 29 yards. He has also been one of the NFL’s most accurate long-range kickers, making 5-of-6 from beyond 50 yards, including a season-high 56-yarder.
