Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Everyone loves to bet individual player props for the Super Bowl, adding even more interest to the biggest sporting event of the season. Using our incredible tools at FTN Bets, we can analyze each player’s strengths and project where they can see success in the grand finale of the 2022 NFL season.
Here are my thoughts on each individual skill position player for the Chiefs for Super Bowl LVII.
Patrick Mahomes, QB
Still only 27 years old, Patrick Mahomes is making a case for being the greatest quarterback of all time. In just six seasons, he has already been named to five Pro Bowls, earned first-team All-Pro twice, won an MVP and Offensive Player of the Year Award (2018), won Super Bowl LIV and Super Bowl LIV MVP, and is now playing in his third Super Bowl overall. Through his first 75 starts, Mahomes ranks first overall among all quarterbacks in NFL history in wins (59), passing yards (22,576), passing touchdowns (180) and highest passer rating (105.7). Just a legendary start to his career.
Despite a 14-3 season and leading the Chiefs to the most points scored in the league (496), Mahomes finds himself as an underdog to the Eagles. Using the FTN Splits Tool, it’s clear to see Mahomes thrives in these opportunities. In the 11 games where Kansas City has been the betting underdog with Mahomes under center, he has seen dramatic increases in passing touchdowns, passing yards and fantasy points per game regardless of scoring format.
Isiah Pacheco, RB
Despite getting drafted as just a seventh-round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, there was always speculation that Isiah Pacheco could play a major role in the Chiefs backfield this season. Pacheco has considered fourth on the team’s depth chart entering the season, sitting behind Clyde Edwards-Helaire and veterans Ronald Jones and Jerick McKinnon. However, as a result of injuries and poor performance, Pacheco earned his chance to shine in Week 10 and hasn’t looked back.
Despite his reputation as an angry, grinder back, our FTN NFL Directional Tool illuminates how Pacheco uses his 4.37 speed to maximize efficiency. He ranked fifth in yards per attempt (4.9) among running backs with at least 150 carries, However, his average jumped to 5.5 YPA on inside runs to the left and an incredible 6.9 YPA on inside runs to the right. Facing a Philadelphia defense that only ranked 21st in rush defense DVOA per FootballOutsiders, Pacheco should again find success right up the middle of the field.
Jerick McKinnon, RB
After years of Jerick McKinnon fans touting his incredible workout metrics over his robust injury history, it has all come together in Kansas City for the 30-year-old running back. McKinnon stayed healthy for an entire NFL season for the first time in his career, and the results followed. The versatile receiving back set career-highs in receptions (56), receiving yards (512) and a massive career-best in total touchdowns (10). DFS and fantasy players were particularly thrilled with his two consecutive overall RB1 stat lines in Weeks 14 and 15, where he totaled 15 receptions and four touchdowns.
Per FTN’s Stats Hub 1.0, McKinnon ranked third among all running backs in receiving yards and third in yards after the catch (544). He also averaged 9.7 yards per reception, a higher mark than Christian McCaffrey (8.1), Alvin Kamara (8.2) and Austin Ekeler (7.9). McKinnon should see passing-game opportunities against a Philadelphia defense that allowed the 13th-most receptions (83) to opposing running backs.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR
The 28-year-old speedy wideout picked the perfect time for his best performance of the season. Marquez Valdes-Scantling translated 8 targets into 6 receptions, 116 receiving yards and a touchdown in Kansas City’s 23-20 win over Cincinnati.
Per FTN’s Advanced Receiving Stats Tool, Valdes-Scantling ranked second behind JuJu Smith-Schuster in targets (81), but ranked first among Chiefs wide receivers in deep catches (seven) and deep receiving yards (242). His 17 deep targets translate into a 20% deep target share, which ranks 18th among all NFL wide receivers with at least 50 targets this season.
JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR
The 26-year-old former Steelers receiver joined the Chiefs in the hopes of finding consistency in a career filled with volatility. In his first five NFL years, JuJu Smith-Schuster has produced two seasons of 97 or more receptions and three seasons of 58 or fewer receptions. In 2022, Smith-Schuster led the Chiefs wideouts in targets (101), receptions (78) and receiving yards (933). Despite lacking elite speed (4.54), Smith-Schuster is a dependable target for Patrick Mahomes that tallied the 12th-most red zone targets (16) among all NFL wide receivers.
The FTN Advanced Player Stats illustrates the unique nature of Smith-Schuster’s season. Despite carrying the lowest aDOT (7.3 yards) of any Kansas City wide receiver, he ranked first on the team in receptions of 40-plus yards (four), with two of those receptions going for touchdowns. His longest reception of the 2022 season (53 yards), is the fourth time in his career that his longest reception was over 50 yards. Smith-Schuster brings a versatile skill set that perfect for an under-the-radar big game in Super Bowl LVII.
Travis Kelce, TE
Widely accepted as the best tight end in the NFL, Travis Kelce enjoyed yet another dominant season. The 33-year-old future Hall of Famer ranked first among all tight ends in targets (152), receptions (110), receiving yards (1338), touchdowns (12) and PPR fantasy points per game (16.6). He is the league’s premier tight end and posted 10 receptions on 15 targets for 133 receiving yards in his last Super Bowl against Tampa Bay.
Using our FTN Air Yards Tool, we can see how dominant Kelce has been among his peers. He ranked second in air yards but held a 405-yard advantage in yards after the catch over Baltimore’s Mark Andrews. Kelce ranks first among all tight ends with a 54.9% weighted average that incorporates a player’s share of team targets and team air yards. Travis Kelce is truly in a class by himself.
Harrison Butker, K
The Chiefs defeated the Bengals in the AFC Championships on the leg on Harrison Butker’s 45-yard field goal. The veteran Kansas City kicker ranks fourth all-time in field goal percentage at 88.2%. This was a down year for Butker, but he still brings a strong leg and experience to the biggest game of the season. In 2022, his field goal percentage dropped to 75%, the third straight year it has decreased. He struggled on deep kicks, making only 3-of-7 from 50-plus yards, but did connect on a career-long 62-yard field goal against the Bills in Week 6.
Butker has been perfect on field goals and extra points in Kansas City’s two Super Bowls, going a perfect 8-for-8 on field goals and extra points. In the Chiefs’ 2020 loss to Tampa Bay, he went 3-for-3 on field goals, including a 52-yarder. Despite his struggles this season, Butker is still a reliable weapon for Kansas City in Super Bowl LVII.
