Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The most prominent free agents have the talent to excel on many potential teams. But the 2024 class carries a bunch of contextual baggage that could lead to marked statistical jumps or falls in different circumstances. With free agency set to start Wednesday (and the legal tampering period coming even sooner), I have summarized that volatility in one key stat for each of 11 major free agents.
Kirk Cousins, QB
Stat: 63.5% red zone pass rate in 2022-23 (2nd highest)
Without the rushing contributions of many of his contemporaries, Kirk Cousins may never have been the talk of the fantasy offseason the way he’s the talk of the real-life offseason. But the former hype could build if Cousins finds himself on a Falcons team with skill talent like Drake London, Kyle Pitts and Bijan Robinson, and the community remembers the veteran was on pace for 38 passing touchdowns before he tore his Achilles in late October. I’m just not sure it should. Cousins owes much of his blistering recent touchdown pace to a fantasy-friendly head coach in Kevin O’Connell, who allowed Cousins to pass on 63.5% of the team’s red zone attempts the last two seasons. Only Tom Brady threw more near the end zone. Cousins enjoyed a lot of success with that approach, but a different coach could push for balance. In fact, Cousins’ former head coach Mike Zimmer had his quarterback throw on a modest 42.9% of red zone attempts, the sixth lowest rate in 2020-21. And even a less radical coach could cost his quarterback five or more touchdowns over the course of a full season.
Josh Jacobs, RB
Stat: 24.0% light-box percentage in 2023 (lowest)
Traditional statistics paint Josh Jacobs’ 2022 season as a career outlier. The veteran back racked up 2,053 total yards with 4.9 yards per carry that season, more than 700 and nearly a yard more than in any of his other seasons since 2020. But traditional statistics cannot capture the context. And after the Raiders traded Derek Carr and eventually lost Jimmy Garoppolo to injury, opponents made Jacobs their No. 1 defensive priority. The back saw six or fewer men in the box on a meager 24.0% of his carries last season. That was the lowest rate at the position and barely half of his 45.3% rate from his standout 2022 season. If Jacobs can find a team with a more threatening passing game, then he should see easier opportunities and will have a chance to bounce back in fantasy in 2024.
Saquon Barkley, RB
Stat: 46.6% hit-in-the-backfield percentage in 2023 (3rd highest)
Saquon Barkley suffered a similar fate to Jacobs when Giants quarterback Daniel Jones tore his ACL and left the team with an undrafted rookie in Tommy DeVito and a limited veteran in Tyrod Taylor. But for Barkley, you saw that less in light boxes and more in his 46.6% rate of contact in the backfield, the third highest rate at his position. The former No. 2 pick may carry less of his future offense. But if a plus quarterback and receivers creates some space for him to work, then Barkley could easily turn fewer touches into greater production.
Derrick Henry, RB
Stat: 62 carries in apparent passing situations in 2023 (2nd most)
Barkley has been on the high side of things, but no one has quite carried his offense from the backfield like the veteran Derrick Henry in recent seasons. Last year, Henry saw 62 carries in what other teams would consider obvious passing situations: on first downs with more than 10 yards, second downs with more than 6 yards, and on third and fourth downs with more than 3 yards to gain. Call it his 30 years of age or call it football in 2024, but I doubt any team will feature Henry the way the Titans did the last several seasons. He should still be a strong bet to score 10 or more touchdowns, whatever his team. But Henry could fade from his 280-plus-carry standard in a different circumstance. And without the receiving productivity to counterbalance that loss, Henry could slip from his traditional RB1 perch.
Tony Pollard, RB
Stat: 61 red zone carries in 2023 (2nd most)
Tony Pollard was as unlucky a touchdown scorer in 2023 as he was a lucky one in 2022, and I expect to spill a lot of ink on that point this offseason. But positive regression is only part of Pollard’s future touchdown equation. The veteran will need to convince his future coaches to call his name near the end zone. Better luck will help in that effort. But I suspect coaches will see Pollard’s just six touchdowns on 61 red zone carries in 2023 as evidence that he should at least share that work with another back. And since the veteran is undersized for his position at 6-foot-0 and 209 pounds (28.3 BMI), that’s a difficult argument to oppose.
D’Andre Swift, RB
Stat: 2.49 yards before contact per attempt in 2023 (3rd highest)
D’Andre Swift’s receiving skills should make him less sensitive to his teams for fantasy than many running backs. But the Eagles import has more than his explosiveness to credit for his 2.49 yards before contact per attempt in 2023 that was third highest at the position. He had tremendous support from a dual threat quarterback in Jalen Hurts and maybe the best run-blocking offensive line in football. With the same benefits, Miles Sanders enjoyed similar success with 2.78 yards before contact per attempt in 2022. But then Sanders slipped to less than half that rate with 1.29 yards before contact per attempt with dramatically less offensive support with the Panthers last season. Swift is unlikely to suffer that extreme of a fall from grace with a new team. But a committee role with less rushing efficiency could cost him his RB1 value even if he returns to his former 55-plus target standard.
Austin Ekeler, RB
Stat: 47.8% route participation rate in 2023 (10th highest)
I trust that fantasy players will expect Austin Ekeler to shed some of the red zone carries that spurred his position-leading 38 touchdowns in his healthy 2021-22 seasons. But they should probably expect some receiving decline, too. It isn’t that Ekeler lost his sure-handedness or even his elusiveness. The veteran led the position with 10.2 average yards after the catch last season. But Ekeler was also top 10 with his 47.8% route participation rate, and his fellow leaders like Christian McCaffrey, Kyren Williams and Alvin Kamara communicate the importance of a three-down role to that kind of receiving volume. Jaylen Warren and Tyjae Spears paced the primary third-down backs with 74 and 70 targets last season. Ekeler could match that in a similar role, but even that would represent a marked decline from his near 100-target standard from the last three seasons.
Calvin Ridley, WR
Stat: 24 end zone targets in 2023 (most)
Calvin Ridley reasserted his former No. 1 receiver role after a year-and-a-half absence in 2023. And he could find a No. 1 role on another team, and he might even find another quarterback to spur an upper-half passing offense. But to repeat as the end zone target medalist in 2024, Ridley would likely need those and a featured end zone role. And I’m unsure the 6-foot-1 receiver would find that on, say, a Titans team with DeAndre Hopkins or a Cardinals team with Michael Wilson and Trey McBride.
Marquise Brown, WR
Stat: 55.4% catchable target rate in 2023 (lowest)
Marquise Brown may not be the talent that his hypothetical Cardinals replacement Calvin Ridley is. But the incumbent is still dramatically better than he could show in 2023. With normal No. 1 quarterback Kyler Murray out for the bulk of his healthy games, Brown saw a meager 55.4% catchable target rate that was the lowest at his position. Deep threats tend to have below average catchable target rates. But Brown’s rate in 2023 was an outlier. It was one of just two rates below 60% and was 10% lower than Mike Evans with the fifth-lowest rate at the position. And its potential positive regression opens the door for a Brown fantasy breakout on a new team in 2024.
