Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to the Week 9 fantasy football start/sit column, where I have detailed which players you should start and sit this week based on their recent trends, matchups, and other game contexts.
- Players are labeled as starts if I rank them better than the consensus and sits if I rank them worse than the consensus, but consider your specific league contexts to make your start and sit decisions.
- The positional rankings and fantasy point totals rely on half PPR scoring.
- The consensus rankings refer to the FantasyPros expert consensus.
- You can find my weekly rankings and those of other FTN writers here.
Week 9 Start/Sit: Quarterbacks
Tom Brady, Bucs vs. Rams (84 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 9 Positional Ranking: 10th, +2 vs. consensus (12th)
+ Efficiency: Tom Brady has thrown just 9 touchdowns but has 16.29 expected passing touchdowns in 2022, and that position-leading 7.29-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
– Opponent: Brady has faced the second easiest schedule of pass defenses that on average have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.11 per game and should have a harder schedule starting this week.
Aaron Rodgers, Packers at Lions (Dome)
Week 9 Positional Ranking: 11th, +2 vs. consensus (13th)
+ Opponent: Rodgers has faced the eighth-hardest schedule of pass defenses that on average have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.07 per game and should have an easier schedule starting this week.
+ Opponent: The Lions have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.30 per game in 2022, sixth most in football.
– Venue: Aaron Rodgers has averaged 1.4 more fantasy points per game at home than on the road the last two-plus seasons.
Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars vs. Raiders (77 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 9 Positional Ranking: 13th, +1 vs. consensus (14th)
+ Efficiency: Trevor Lawrence has thrown just 10 touchdowns but has 13.39 expected passing touchdowns in 2022, and that eighth biggest 3.39-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
+ Opponent: Lawrence has faced the hardest schedule of pass defenses that on average have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.18 per game and should have an easier schedule starting this week.
+ Opponent: The Raiders have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.57 per game in 2022, second most in football.
Derek Carr, Raiders at Jaguars (77 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 9 Positional Ranking: 15th, +2 vs. consensus (17th)
+ Efficiency: Derek Carr has thrown just 9 touchdowns but has 12.67 expected passing touchdowns in 2022, and that fifth biggest 3.67-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
Matthew Stafford, Rams at Bucs (84 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 9 Positional Ranking: 18th, +2 vs. consensus (20th)
+ Efficiency: Matthew Stafford has thrown just 7 touchdowns but has 13.26 expected passing touchdowns in 2022, and that second biggest 6.26-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
+ Opponent: Stafford has faced the third hardest schedule of pass defenses that on average have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.11 per game and should have an easier schedule starting this week.
– Venue: Matthew Stafford has averaged 1.3 more fantasy points per game at home than on the road the last two-plus seasons.
Kirk Cousins, Vikings at Commanders (73 degrees and cloudy)
Week 9 Positional Ranking: 12th, -1 vs. consensus (11th)
– Venue: Kirk Cousins has averaged 2.4 more fantasy points per game at home than on the road the last two-plus seasons.
+ Efficiency: Cousins has thrown just 11 touchdowns but has 13.61 expected passing touchdowns in 2022, and that 11th biggest 2.61-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
Marcus Mariota, Falcons vs. Chargers (Dome)
Week 9 Positional Ranking: 16th, -1 vs. consensus (15th)
– Efficiency: Marcus Mariota has thrown 10 touchdowns but has just 7.56 expected passing touchdowns in 2022, and that eighth biggest 2.44-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
+ Opponent: The Chargers have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.28 per game in 2022, seventh most in football.
Jared Goff, Lions vs. Packers (Dome)
Week 9 Positional Ranking: 17th, -1 vs. consensus (16th)
– Opponent: The Packers have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.21 per game in 2022, seventh most in football.
Andy Dalton, Saints vs. Ravens (Dome)
Week 9 Positional Ranking: 19th, -1 vs. consensus (18th)
– Efficiency: Andy Dalton has thrown 9 touchdowns but has just 5.96 expected passing touchdowns in 2022, and that fourth biggest 3.04-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
+ Opponent: The Ravens have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.25 per game in 2022, eighth most in football.
Week 9 Start/Sit: Running Backs
Raheem Mostert, Dolphins at Bears (59 degrees and sunny)
Week 9 Positional Ranking: 16th, +1 vs. consensus (17th)
+ Opponent: The Bears have increased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.52 per game in 2022, second most in football.
Tyler Allgeier, Falcons vs. Chargers (Dome)
Week 9 Positional Ranking: 19th, +1 vs. consensus (20th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Tyler Allgeier for 16.0 carries + targets this week — assuming Cordarrelle Patterson does not play — 17th at his position (he has averaged 15.3 carries + targets with Patterson out since Week 5).
+ Efficiency: Allgeier has just 2 touchdowns but has just 2.92 expected rushing and receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 0.92-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
AJ Dillon, Packers at Lions (Dome)
Week 9 Positional Ranking: 23rd, +2 vs. consensus (25th)
+ Efficiency: AJ Dillon has just 1 touchdown but has just 2.50 expected rushing and receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 1.50-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
+ Opponent: The Lions have increased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.74 per game in 2022, the most in football.
Brian Robinson, Commanders vs. Vikings (73 degrees and cloudy)
Week 9 Positional Ranking: 26th, +1 vs. consensus (27th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Brian Robinson for 14.5 carries + targets this week, 20th at his position (he has averaged 14.0 carries + targets in 2022).
+ Opponent: The Vikings have increased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.16 per game in 2022, ninth most in football.
Darrell Henderson, Rams at Bucs (84 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 9 Positional Ranking: 28th, +4 vs. consensus (32nd)
+ Volume: I am projecting Darrell Henderson for 14.1 carries + targets this week — assuming Cam Akers does not play — 22nd at his position (he had 15 carries + targets in Week 6 and had just six in Week 8 because of an illness).
– Opponent: The Bucs have decreased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.25 per game in 2022, seventh most in football.
Chuba Hubbard, Panthers at Bengals (65 degrees and sunny)
Week 9 Positional Ranking: 38th, +19 vs. consensus (52nd — this reflects that some rankers have not ranked Hubbard because of the uncertainty of his ankle injury, but Hubbard told reporters earlier this week he believed he would play)
+ Volume: I am projecting Chuba Hubbard for 13.3 carries + targets this week, 26th at his position (he saw 12 carries + targets and played 46% of snaps versus 17 and 54% for D’Onta Foreman in Week 7 but was pacing the backfield before an ankle injury forced him out with 12 minutes left in the fourth quarter and yielded the last nine carries to Foreman).
– Efficiency: Hubbard has run in 1 touchdown but has just 0.14 expected rushing touchdowns in 2022, and that 0.86-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
Deon Jackson, Colts at Patriots (71 degrees and cloudy)
Week 9 Positional Ranking: 39th, +14 vs. consensus (53rd)
+ Volume: I am projecting Deon Jackson for 6.5 carries + targets this week, tied for 31st at his position (he has averaged 1.5 carries + targets with Jonathan Taylor healthy the last two weeks but is the natural candidate to replace the traded Nyheim Hines’ 4.0 targets per game from this season).
– Opponent: The Patriots have decreased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.28 per game in 2022, fifth most in football.
Jerick McKinnon, Chiefs vs. Titans (54 degrees and clear)
Week 9 Positional Ranking: 40th, +5 vs. consensus (45th)
+ Efficiency: Jerick McKinnon has just 1 touchdown but has just 2.54 expected rushing and receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 1.54-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
+ Efficiency: McKinnon ranks last with -2.32 net stolen touchdowns in 2022 and will likely see his rushing touchdown rate rise the rest of the season with more balance in the red zone.
– Opponent: The Titans have decreased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.42 per game in 2022, the most in football.
Devin Singletary, Bills at Jets (72 degrees and cloudy)
Week 9 Positional Ranking: 21st, -2 vs. consensus (19th)
– Opponent: The Jets have decreased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.31 per game in 2022, fourth most in football.
Khalil Herbert, Bears vs. Dolphins (59 degrees and sunny)
Week 9 Positional Ranking: 27th, -5 vs. consensus (22nd)
– Volume: I am projecting Khalil Herbert for 12.3 carries + targets this week, 29th at his position (he has averaged 10.3 carries + targets vs. 16.3 for David Montgomery since Week 5).
– Efficiency: Herbert has 5 touchdowns but has just 4.10 expected rushing and receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 0.90-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
– Efficiency: Herbert ranks third with 1.30 net stolen touchdowns in 2022 and will likely see his rushing touchdown rate fall the rest of the season with more balance in the red zone.
+ Opponent: The Dolphins have increased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.29 per game in 2022, sixth most in football.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Chiefs vs. Titans (54 degrees and clear)
Week 9 Positional Ranking: 31st, -2 vs. consensus (29th)
– Volume: I am projecting Clyde Edwards-Helaire for 9.6 carries + targets this week, 35th at his position (he has averaged 12.0 carries + targets in 2022 but saw just seven and played a season low 27% of snaps vs. eight and 30% for Isiah Pacheco in Week 7).
– Efficiency: Edwards-Helaire has 6 touchdowns but has just 4.14 expected rushing and receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 1.86-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
– Opponent: The Titans have decreased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.42 per game in 2022, the most in football.
James Robinson, Jets vs. Bills (72 degrees and cloudy)
Week 9 Positional Ranking: 37th, -2 vs. consensus (35th)
– Opponent: The Bills have decreased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.22 per game in 2022, ninth most in football.
Week 9 Start/Sit: Wide Receivers
Adam Thielen, Vikings at Commanders (73 degrees and cloudy)
Week 9 Positional Ranking: 24th, +1 vs. consensus (25th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Adam Thielen for 7.4 targets this week, tied for 21st at his position (he has averaged 7.1 targets in 2022).
+ Efficiency: Thielen has caught just 2 touchdowns but has 3.09 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 1.09-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
Joshua Palmer, Chargers at Falcons (Dome)
Week 9 Positional Ranking: 30th, +3 vs. consensus (33rd)
+ Efficiency: Joshua Palmer has caught just 1 touchdown but has 1.86 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 0.86-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
+ Opponent: The Falcons have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.35 per game in 2022, fourth most in football.
Allen Robinson, Rams at Bucs (84 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 9 Positional Ranking: 34th, +1 vs. consensus (35th)
+ Efficiency: Allen Robinson has caught just 2 touchdowns but has 4.90 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 2.90-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
Zay Jones, Jaguars vs. Raiders (77 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 9 Positional Ranking: 36th, +1 vs. consensus (37th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Zay Jones for 6.8 targets this week, tied for 27th at his position (he has averaged 7.1 targets in 2022).
+ Efficiency: Jones has caught just 1 touchdown but has 2.61 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 1.61-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
+ Opponent: The Raiders have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.57 per game in 2022, second most in football.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Chiefs vs. Titans (54 degrees and clear)
Week 9 Positional Ranking: 37th, +1 vs. consensus (38th)
+ Efficiency: Marquez Valdes-Scantling has not caught a touchdown but has 1.46 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 1.46-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
+ Opponent: The Titans have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.33 per game in 2022, fifth most in football.
Marvin Jones, Jaguars vs. Raiders (77 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 9 Positional Ranking: 45th, +1 vs. consensus (46th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Marvin Jones for 5.6 targets this week, tied for 38th at his position (he has averaged 5.9 targets in 2022).
+ Efficiency: Jones has caught just 1 touchdown but has 1.82 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 0.82-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
+ Opponent: The Raiders have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.57 per game in 2022, second most in football.
Terrace Marshall, Panthers at Bengals (65 degrees and sunny)
Week 9 Positional Ranking: 46th, +2 vs. consensus (48th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Terrace Marshall for 5.6 targets this week, tied for 38th at his position (he has averaged 6.0 targets and played 90% of snaps since Week 7 after the Robbie Anderson trade).
+ Efficiency: Marshall has not caught just a touchdown but has 1.41 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 1.41-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
– Opponent: The Bengals have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.29 per game in 2022, fourth most in football.
Phillip Dorsett, Texans vs. Eagles (Dome)
Week 9 Positional Ranking: 58th, +5 vs. consensus (63rd)
+ Volume: I am projecting Phillip Dorsett for 5.6 targets this week, tied for 38th at his position (he had 5 targets and played a season high 83% of snaps with Nico Collins out in Week 8 and should see more volume with both Collins and Brandin Cooks out).
Tyler Boyd, Bengals vs. Panthers (65 degrees and sunny)
Week 9 Positional Ranking: 21st, -2 vs. consensus (19th)
– Efficiency: Tyler Boyd has caught 4 touchdowns but has just 1.71 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 2.29-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
– Opponent: The Panthers have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.19 per game in 2022, eighth most in football.
Jakobi Meyers, Patriots vs. Colts (71 degrees and cloudy)
Week 9 Positional Ranking: 25th, -1 vs. consensus (24th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Jakobi Meyers for 9.2 targets this week, 11th at his position (he has averaged 7.5 targets in 2022 but should see more volume with DeVante Parker out).
– Efficiency: Meyers has caught 3 touchdowns but has just 1.35 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 1.65-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
– Opponent: The Colts have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.30 per game in 2022, third most in football.
Darnell Mooney, Bears vs. Dolphins (59 degrees and sunny)
Week 9 Positional Ranking: 31st, -2 vs. consensus (29th)
– Volume: I am projecting Darnell Mooney for 5.1 targets this week, 43rd at his position (he has averaged 5.5 targets in 2022 but should see less volume after the Chase Claypool trade).
Drake London, Falcons vs. Chargers (Dome)
Week 9 Positional Ranking: 33rd, -2 vs. consensus (31st)
– Volume: I am projecting Drake London for 5.6 targets this week, tied for 38th at his position (he has averaged 6.1 targets in 2022 but just 3.3 since Week 6).
+ Opponent: The Chargers have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.28 per game in 2022, seventh most in football.
Garrett Wilson, Jets vs. Bills (72 degrees and cloudy)
Week 9 Positional Ranking: 35th, -3 vs. consensus (32nd)
– Opponent: The Bills have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.18 per game in 2022, ninth most in football.
Josh Reynolds, Lions vs. Packers (Dome)
Week 9 Positional Ranking: 41st, -1 vs. consensus (40th)
– Opponent: The Packers have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.21 per game in 2022, seventh most in football.
– Opponent: Jaire Alexander has allowed just a 54% catch rate on his targets this season, 11th lowest among cornerbacks with 175 or more routes in coverage.
Mecole Hardman, Chiefs vs. Titans (54 degrees and clear)
Week 9 Positional Ranking: 47th, -3 vs. consensus (44th)
– Volume: I am projecting Mecole Hardman for 4.2 targets this week, tied for 50th at his position (he has averaged 3.6 targets in 2022 and could see less volume if Kadarius Toney plays).
– Efficiency: Hardman has 5 touchdowns but has just 2.32 expected rushing and receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 2.68-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
Week 9 Start/Sit: Tight Ends
Hayden Hurst, Bengals vs. Panthers (65 degrees and sunny)
Week 9 Positional Ranking: 10th, +1 vs. consensus (11th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Hayden Hurst for 6.1 targets this week, fourth at his position (he has averaged 5.4 targets in 2022 but should see more volume with Ja’Marr Chase out).
– Opponent: The Panthers have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.19 per game in 2022, eighth most in football.
Evan Engram, Jaguars vs. Raiders (77 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 9 Positional Ranking: 11th, +1 vs. consensus (12th)
+ Efficiency: Evan Engram has caught just 1 touchdown but has 1.69 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 0.69-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
+ Opponent: The Raiders have allowed 13.6 average fantasy points per game to tight ends in 2022, third most in football.
+ Opponent: The Raiders have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.57 per game in 2022, second most in football.
Will Dissly, Seahawks at Cardinals (Dome)
Week 9 Positional Ranking: 21st, +2 vs. consensus (19th)
+ Opponent: The Cardinals have allowed 16.2 average fantasy points per game to tight ends in 2022, second most in football.
– Efficiency: Will Dissly has caught 3 touchdowns but has just 0.83 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that position-leading 2.17-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
Logan Thomas, Commanders vs. Vikings (73 degrees and cloudy)
Week 9 Positional Ranking: 23rd, +1 vs. consensus (24th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Logan Thomas for 3.4 targets this week, 20th at his position (Thomas did not see a target in Week 8 but played a promising 56% of snaps).
Brevin Jordan, Texans vs. Eagles (Dome)
Week 9 Positional Ranking: 26th, +3 vs. consensus (29th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Brevin Jordan for 4.1 targets this week, 18th at his position (he has averaged 4.5 targets the last two weeks and will have less target competition in Week 9 with Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins out).
James Mitchell, Lions vs. Packers (Dome)
Week 9 Positional Ranking: 29th, +9 vs. consensus (38th)
+ Volume: I am projecting James Mitchell for 2.0 targets this week, 33rd at his position (Dan Campbell told reporters that Mitchell will see more work after the T.J. Hockenson trade).
– Opponent: The Packers have allowed 5.7 average fantasy points per game to tight ends in 2022, fourth lowest in football.
– Opponent: The Packers have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.21 per game in 2022, seventh most in football.
T.J. Hockenson, Vikings at Commanders (73 degrees and cloudy)
Week 9 Positional Ranking: 12th, -3 vs. consensus (9th)
– Opponent: The Commanders have allowed 4.9 average fantasy points per game to tight ends in 2022, tied for second lowest in football.
Dawson Knox, Bills at Jets (72 degrees and cloudy)
Week 9 Positional Ranking: 14th, -1 vs. consensus (13th)
– Opponent: The Jets have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.23 per game in 2022, sixth most in football.
Tyler Conklin, Jets vs. Bills (72 degrees and cloudy)
Week 9 Positional Ranking: 17th, -2 vs. consensus (15th)
– Efficiency: Tyler Conklin has caught 3 touchdowns but has just 1.77 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that fifth highest 1.23-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
– Opponent: The Bills have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.18 per game in 2022, ninth most in football.
Isaiah Likely, Ravens at Saints (Dome)
Week 9 Positional Ranking: 18th, -2 vs. consensus (20th)
– Opponent: The Saints have allowed 4.9 average fantasy points per game to tight ends in 2022, tied for second lowest in football.
Hunter Henry, Patriots vs. Colts (71 degrees and cloudy)
Week 9 Positional Ranking: 22nd, -2 vs. consensus (20th)
– Opponent: The Colts have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.30 per game in 2022, third most in football.
Cole Kmet, Bears vs. Dolphins (59 degrees and sunny)
Week 9 Positional Ranking: 25th, -3 vs. consensus (22nd)
– Volume: I am projecting Cole Kmet for 2.2 targets this week, 30th at his position (he has averaged 2.5 targets in 2022 and should see less volume after the Chase Claypool trade).
