NFL Usage Report for Week 9: RB Snap Count Takeaways

We’re bringing back a familiar format in this week’s Usage Report. Once again, we’re doing an over-time comparison of workloads to see which players have been demanding more usage and which players appear to be trending in the wrong direction. For this week’s piece, I’m using snap counts to evaluate trends at the running back position and taking a deep dive into what these numbers can tell us heading into the second half of the season. I’ll follow this same format next week to evaluate the pass catchers.

To identify the running backs for this article, I compared snap shares throughout the first four weeks with snap shares from the previous four weeks and highlighted the players who experienced the most significant changes. To avoid having too many names on the list, I added a few caveats:

• Player needed to log at least 50% of snaps during one of the two time periods
• Percent change needed to be at least 10%
• Players who missed games due to injury were removed

The Positive Trend Guys Who Are Here to Stay

The first tier we’re placing these players into is for the guys experiencing an uptick in snaps that appear to be well earned. The first subgroup we see is a trio of young backs who have dominated on the field and demanded increased usage early in their careers. All three of Rhamondre Stevenson, Travis Etienne and Dameon Pierce were stuck in backfields that were considered murky to start the season, but these three quickly established themselves as their team’s best option and their workload has followed suit. The only one I have any sort of concern about here is Stevenson simply because Bill Belichick is notorious for causing fantasy managers headaches with running back usage. He’s certainly passed the eye test though, and it’ll be hard for any coach to take him off the field.

Next up we have a group of studs who seem to be trending toward their normal workhorse usage. Austin Ekeler, Derrick Henry, and Aaron Jones are all household names in fantasy football, but each carried some risk of a decreased usage entering the season. The Chargers mentioned on multiple occasions they wanted to lighten Ekeler’s usage, Henry was coming off a major foot injury, and Aaron Jones was supposed to be splitting time evenly with AJ Dillon. It didn’t take long for their coaching staffs to realize they need these backs on the field more often, and all indications are their uptick in usage is here to stay.

A guy who finds his name on this list primarily due to injury has been Kenneth Walker. While Walker has dominated when given the opportunity, we can’t deny that it took a Rashaad Penny injury for him to get to this point. With Penny being out for the year though, Walker’s dominance looks like it’s going to continue for the rest of the season.

The Positive Trend Guys Who May Cool Off

The first names we see on this list are the backs who – like Walker – benefitted from injuries ahead of them on the depth chart. The difference is, for Eno Benjamin and Tyler Allgeier, the injuries to James Conner and Cordarrelle Patterson aren’t season ending. Once these two vets are healthy enough to suit up again (which sounds like it could be soon), it’s hard to envision Benjamin and Allgeier holding any fantasy value beyond being a handcuff.

The other name in this bucket is Raheem Mostert, who has had an interesting start to his season. Initially he was the No. 2 back behind Chase Edmonds on the depth chart, but Mostert outplayed him and claimed the No. 1 role for his own. Then the Dolphins traded for Jeff Wilson at the deadline, which is sure to shake up the backfield snaps once again. 

I’m of the belief that Mostert will remain atop the depth chart, but Wilson should see the field more often than Edmonds did in recent weeks. Something closer to a 50/50 split is what fantasy managers should expect in Miami moving forward.

The Poor Performers

Now we’re on to the guys who are trending in the wrong direction due to poor performance. Najee Harris  and Leonard Fournette saw workhorse volume at some point throughout the year, but they’re now all trending in the wrong direction. Harris has been horribly inefficient, averaging just 3.3 YPC, while his backup, Jaylen Warren, has averaged 5.3 YPC and has looked much better with the ball in his hands. One of the primary reasons we loved Harris this offseason was his insane workload, but that appears to now be gone and he lacks the efficiency to make up for it.

You’re still comfortable starting Fournette, but if one of your leaguemates still considers him a top-10 fantasy back, he’s a prime sell candidate. The Bucs offense looks bad and rookie running back Rachaad White has been fantastic when given the opportunity. White doesn’t appear to be going away anytime soon, and unless the Bucs offense really kicks it into gear down the stretch, Fournette is destined to disappoint.

Another group of backs in this tier are those who were never really workhorses but are still seeing a decline in usage due to poor play. AJ Dillon was one of the darlings of the offseason, but going back to what was said about Aaron Jones earlier, Dillon is very clearly the second-best back on the team. He’s not the 1B many thought he would be entering the season, instead he appears to be a true No. 2 option. The return of Brian Robinson has had a similar impact on Antonio Gibson who produced well to start the season, but now appears stuck in a three-man committee in Washington. I love Gibson’s talent, but it’s starting to feel like his poor situation may be too much to overcome.

The last subgroup we have here are the guys who were traded. Both Jeff Wilson and James Robinson appear to have seen a decrease in their fantasy value after switching teams. Wilson was producing well as the No. 1 back in San Francisco, but it’s hard to see his workload remaining as high in Miami alongside Raheem Mostert. Robinson on the other hand looked great to start the season, but Etienne’s dominance quickly made him an afterthought and a trade candidate. He should have a solid opportunity on the Jets with Breece Hall out for the year, but the back I want on the Jets for the remainder of the season is Michael Carter – his pass-catching ability provides more upside.

The Guys You Shouldn’t Worry About

Last up we come to the guys who saw a decrease in snap share that shouldn’t really concern you. Christian McCaffrey finds himself on this list solely because he saw just a 29% snap share in his first game as a 49er. That number ballooned up to 81% last week where we saw McCaffrey absolutely dominate after he had a full week of practice with the team – no cause for concern here. Then there’s Saquon Barkley who saw a dip in usage, but still saw an 80% snap share over the last four weeks. There’s no need to be greedy here as 80% is a fantastic rate for any running back, and more importantly… he’s still Saquon Barkley.