Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Week 1 of the NFL season never disappoints.
The opening games of the 2023 season were filled with upsets, shocking performances and incredible finishes. Each Sunday night (or Monday morning), I will provide my five instant fantasy football reactions from the slate of games. What were the key performances, surprises and disappointments from across the NFL?
Let’s get right into it!
Reaction No. 1: Injuries Strike Again
There will always be injuries every week of the season, but the number of serious injuries in Week 1 were even higher than normal. Here is a rundown of the key injuries across the league:
- Baltimore running back J.K. Dobbins is out for the season with a torn Achilles
- Aaron Jones (Green Bay) left the game after scoring a third-quarter touchdown against the Bears. He did not return to the game due to a hamstring injury. Despite visibly limping after the touchdown catch, the Packers are hopeful he avoided a serious strain.
- Jakobi Meyers left the win at Denver late in the fourth quarter with an apparent concussion.
- Diontae Johnson suffered a hamstring injury in the second quarter
Reaction No. 2: NFL Head Coaches Are Loyal
I say this every year. It doesn’t matter how explosive a rookie is at the NFL Combine. It doesn’t matter about draft capital. It doesn’t matter how much we think a rookie should play over a veteran, it matters what the coaches think. This also is true for free-agent signings. Trust is earned in the NFL.
Per FTN Data, Atlanta running back Tyler Allgeier had a 10% lower snap share but saw 20% of the team’s rush attempts. First-round rookie Bijan Robinson saw five fewer rush attempts and 19 fewer rushing yards but did have a team-high six targets in the passing game.
On Thursday Night, Detroit running back David Montgomery saw three times the amount of rushing attempts (21 to 7) than first-round rookie Jahmyr Gibbs. Montgomery’s 3.5 YPC was pedestrian compared to Gibbs’ 6.0 mark, but Montgomery did convert a goal-line carry into a touchdown.
Reaction No. 3: Snap Count or Target Share?
There were several wide receivers who underperformed miserably despite being on the field for most of the game. The first player was Kansas City wideout Skyy Moore, who saw 45 of the Chiefs’ 65 snaps (69%) but failed to record a single reception. Atlanta wideout Drake London played 40 of the team’s 44 snaps but also failed to post a reception. Finally, Cincinnati’s Tee Higgins was on the field for 95% of the Bengals plays but did not record a catch. Higgins did, however, see eight targets.
It’s a critical reminder to avoid jumping to irrational conclusions based on just one week of results. There were several misleading stat lines from last year’s Week 1 including Josh Jacobs (10 carries, 57 yards), Rhamondre Stevenson (8 carries, 25 yards) and D’Andre Swift (15 carries, 144 yards, TD).
Reaction No. 4: Teams Define Their Intentions By Actions Not Words
It may only be Week 1, but there were some eyebrow-raising personnel usage moves that are worth monitoring moving forward. In Philadelphia, running Rashaad Penny was a healthy pregame scratch, and veteran Kenny Gainwell served as the team’s lead running back. Gainwell saw 14 of the team’s 16 RB rush attempts, while catching all four of his targets for 20 receiving yards. By comparison, D’Andre Swift saw just one rush attempt in a game the Eagles led from start to finish. In the same game, veteran Kendrick Bourne saw a team-high 11 targets for the Patriots with wide receiver DeVante Parker sidelined with an injury.
Our preseason fears about Jacksonville wideout Christian Kirk are now heightened, with Calvin Ridley and Zay Jones demanding 18 of the Jaguars’ 32 targets. Both players scored and were the clear top-2 wideouts in 2WR sets. Kirk produced just one reception for nine yards on three targets.
One of the clear winners of Week 1 was Washington running back Brian Robinson. The second-year bulldozer ran the same amount of routes as teammate Antonio Gibson and saw one more target. Robinson dominated the work on the ground with 19 carries to Gibson’s 3. This does not appear to be a timeshare backfield.
Reaction No. 5: Rookies Wideouts Shine
There were so many incredible rookie wideout performances throughout the league, especially in unexpected situations. With Cooper Kupp up, wideout Puka Nacua posted an eye-popping stat line of 10 receptions and 119 yards on an incredible 15 targets. However, the most impressive rookie debut was Baltimore’s Zay Flowers, who quickly established himself as the clear WR1 for the Ravens. Flowers saw 10 of the team’s 22 passing targets and posted nine catches for 78 yards in the Ravens’ 25-9 comfortable win.
Also worth noting was Minnesota’s first-year wideout Jordan Addison, who has clearly surpassed K.J. Osborn as the WR2 next to All-Pro Justin Jefferson. Addison registered four receptions for 61 yards including this 39-yard touchdown catch.
