NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
The injuries keep piling up in the NFL despite it only being Week 3, and there seem to be an awful lot of them this week. Some injuries should make certain offenses very concentrated and open up opportunities for important players this week.
Below is the Saturday injury update. Scroll down to the bottom to see the original injury report from Monday.
Saturday Update
Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers
Austin Ekeler will miss his second consecutive game. Joshua Kelley is in such a better matchup this week. He only recorded 13 attempts last week and saw just one target, but the Titans’ run defense is elite. Kelley still saw 79% of the snaps and this is a great bounce-back spot for Kelley in DFS and season-long leagues this week. Minnesota is only 27th in DVOA against the run this season.
Aaron Jones/Christian Watson, Green Bay Packers
Both of these players are questionable for the Packers, just as they were last week. Both also practiced in a limited fashion this week, so there is some type of a chance that they play. Jayden Reed and Romeo Doubs would be in line for more work without Watson while the running game would be in AJ Dillon’s hands. The matchup with the Saints is not great for anyone across the board here, so hopefully for the Packers, they are at full strength.
David Montgomery/Josh Reynolds/Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions
There are layers here for the Lions, as David Montgomery is listed as doubtful and both receivers are questionable. Montgomery’s likely absence will open up a role for Craig Reynolds in conjunction with Jahmyr Gibbs. I would expect 15-17 touches for Gibbs with at least five receptions, but I also think Reynolds has 10 carries or more and could find the end zone. Amon-Ra St. Brown is likely playing, so there isn’t much fear there. Josh Reynolds is the one that could miss but he was limited, so there is still a chance he suits up. If not, Marvin Jones should be the next man up.
Cam Akers, Minnesota Vikings
This isn’t an injury, but Cam Akers likely will not play in Week 3 for his new team, the Minnesota Vikings. He was traded in the middle of the week from the Los Angeles Rams to the Vikings so anyone who wanted to play Alexander Mattison had to be concerned about Akers siphoning touches. But for at least one more week, Mattison should have the bulk of the snaps and opportunities for Minnesota.
Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts
Anthony Richardson has not made it out of concussion protocol, so Gardner Minshew will be starting for the Colts this week. Minshew was forced into action last week and went 19/23 for 171 yards with one score, and he is quite cheap this week in DFS. You likely don’t need to go there in season-long outside of 2QB leagues or superflex, so he is better left for DFS dart throws.
Odell Beckham/Justice Hill, Baltimore Ravens
These injuries should concentrate the offense in Baltimore, because Gus Edwards should take over as the lead back with Justice Hill out, J.K. Dobbins is out for the year, and Melvin Gordon doesn’t have a snap in the offense this year. Edwards is not involved with the passing game at all, but he’s averaging over 5.0 yards per carry and should get at least 14-16 carries in this spot. For the receivers, Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews look a little better, although the absent Odell Beckham has only put up a 12.9% target share. Nelson Agholor stepped in last week and scored a touchdown but I would rather bet on Rashod Bateman. He played nearly double the snaps after Beckham left early in Week 2, so we generally want the playing time.
Zay Jones, Jacksonville Jaguars
Zay Jones has been ruled out this week, and Christian Kirk exploded in Week 2 when Jones only played 66% of the snaps. Kirk went over 81% of the snaps to lead the receivers and saw a whopping 14 targets. That number might not repeat but he’s the clear option behind Calvin Ridley while the Texans are missing two cornerbacks, one safety, and one linebacker from their defense.
Logan Thomas, Washington Commanders
With Logan Thomas out, someone will have to step into the starting tight end role, and that someone appears to be John Bates. He played 52% of snaps and had five targets last week compared to 32% and two targets for Cole Turner. I don’t believe that’s anything more than a DFS dart throw but if he got 5-7 targets, it’s at least mildly interesting. The largest stumbling block is the matchup, as the Bills have not allowed a touchdown to the position since 2021 during the regular season.
Jaylen Waddle/Salvon Ahmed, Miami Dolphins
This is a situation that’s difficult to get a read on, because Jaylen Waddle is still in concussion protocol, but he did log a limited practice Friday. If he’s out of protocol, he should be 100% ready to go in this spot. but if not, the duo of Braxton Berrios and River Cracraft will be very popular cheap options in DFS. Tyreek Hill may also see 20 targets, although that could happen regardless of whether Waddle is active. Salvon Ahmed is listed as doubtful, so it’s going to mean another big workload for Raheem Mostert. Perhaps we see rookie De’Von Achane get some touches but so far, he’s been a healthy scratch in Week 1 and had two touches in Week 2.
Jamaal Williams, New Orleans Saints
The veteran running back is out for the matchup against the Packers, leaving rookie KenDre Miller to make his debut in a very thin backfield. We’d probably be wise to expect some shenanigans as far as Taysom Hill getting rushing attempts, especially near the end zone. Tony Jones likely mixes in as well, but the Saints took Miller in the third round of this year’s draft, so they must think he can handle some kind of workload.
Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers
The rookie quarterback for the Panthers is scheduled to miss a week or two with an ankle injury, meaning veteran Andy Dalton will start in place of Bryce Young. It’s tough to get excited for Dalton on the road, even though Seattle’s defense has shown very little so far. They are only 31st in DVOA against the pass but Dalton is a little past his prime for fnatasy. It’s not like he’s working with the most loaded offense, either.
Original Injury Breakdown (9/18)
It’s only September 18, but there are some key players in fantasy football who were injured Sunday.
There are star quarterbacks, workhorse running backs and stud receivers who may need to be replaced in lineups for Week 3, so let’s get to it.
Saquon Barkley, New York Giants
We may find out about Saquon Barkley’s backup in a hurry, because the Giants face the short turnaround and play on Thursday against the San Francisco 49ers. This injury happened very late in the game for the Giants when Barkley had his ankle rolled up on. The best guess is Matt Breida would be the main running back to take over. He only had one carry against the Cardinals, while Gary Brightwell and Eric Gray would take on some style of complementary role. The matchup on Thursday night is not the most ideal, but we’ll see how fast Barkley can recover.
Davante Adams, Las Vegas Raiders
The game was well out of reach when Davante Adams took a headshot that resulted in an unnecessary roughness penalty and forced Adams from the game. He is being evaluated for a concussion, and those injuries can be tricky to predict. Adams will be in the concussion protocol, and that means he has to clear the protocol to suit up for Week 3. From the Raiders point of view, it’s difficult because 1. Adams is one of the best receivers in the game and 2. Fellow wide receiver Jakobi Meyers missed Week 2 with a concussion of his own. The only other receivers who were targeted against the Bills were Hunter Renfrow and DeAndre Carter with one target each.
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
This is among the most concerning injuries to come out of Week 1, because Joe Burrow missed all of the preseason with a calf injury. In his two games, he has not looked great, and now he’s “day-to-day” after tweaking the calf again. Not only does that hurt managers with Burrow on their roster, but it also has a ripple effect through the Bengals offense that includes Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Joe Mixon and Tyler Boyd. If Burrow were forced to miss any time, Jake Browning would be the starter, and he’s thrown one NFL pass in his career.
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Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts
Anthony Richardson had some very poor luck on Sunday, as he scored two early rushing touchdowns and had 89 scrimmage yards before leaving with a concussion. On his second touchdown, he took a hit when he crossed the plane and did not return. Gardner Minshew stepped in and played a competent game, going 19-for-23 with one touchdown and zero interceptions. He certainly wouldn’t offer the same ceiling as Richardson, but the other pieces of the Indy offense could survive with Minshew at the helm. A player like Zack Moss could have even better fantasy results since his touchdown equity would rise without the threat of Richardson near the goal line.
Odell Beckham, Baltimore Ravens
The initial report for Odell Beckham is that his ankle injury is not too serious. Still, it opened the door for Nelson Agholor to step in and see six targets against the Bengals, second behind only Mark Andrews. Baltimore attempted 33 passes and had to balance Andrews, Zay Flowers, Beckham and Rashod Bateman. It could turn into a game of musical chairs week to week, with someone always being left out. If Beckham misses, it should improve the floor outcomes for Andrews and Flowers.
David Montgomery, Detroit Lions
This injury could potentially open the door for Jahmyr Gibbs to be totally unleashed for the Lions, but I wouldn’t be too sure. David Montgomery ended up being carted to the locker room with a thigh injury, and it has been speculated that he could miss a couple of weeks. Gibbs went on to have seven carries and seven receptions on Sunday, but Craig Reynolds got involved as well with three carries and a target. I don’t believe Gibbs will start carrying the ball 15+ times. The Lions want to keep him somewhat fresh, so Reynolds could be a solid play for teams in a pinch at their running back spot.
Darnell Mooney, Chicago Bears
There isn’t a lot of information out there about Darnell Mooney’s injury, as a knee issue knocked him out of the game against the Bucs on Sunday. Despite not seeing a target, Mooney’s absence didn’t help the other receiving options not named DJ Moore. Chase Claypool turned a team-leading eight targets into three receptions and 36 yards, while Cole Kmet didn’t top 38 yards. This does not look like a passing attack that will offer a whole lot of value.
Logan Thomas, Washington Commanders
One of the toughest hits from Sunday was the hit that Broncos defender Kareem Jackson dished out on Logan Thomas. Jackson leaped off his feet and led with his helmet, resulting in an ejection for him and a concussion for Thomas.
Hopefully, Thomas will be alright, but he does have a history of concussions throughout his career. Tight end is one of the most difficult positions to find some type of production, but desperate players could look to John Bates. He wound up finishing second on the Commanders with five targets and turned them into 46 yards. We’ll see how Thomas reacts over the next couple of days.
Jaylen Waddle/Salvon Ahmed, Miami Dolphins
The bigger name for the Dolphins is Jaylen Waddle, who took a hit late in the contest against the Patriots and was evaluated for a concussion. It’s tough to get much of a read on the situation since it came so late, but Waddle was ruled out of the game fairly quickly. It could have had more to do with timing and the score of the game, but it would not be a surprise to see Waddle enter the concussion protocol this upcoming week.
Salvon Ahmed may not be a household name, but he’s fighting a groin injury that kept him out of the second half. If he were to miss time, Raheem Mostert is going to continue to have this backfield all to himself. Jeff Wilson is out for another two games at least, and rookie De’Von Achane had one carry and one target. Mostert had 18 carries and would continue to be the unquestioned leader.
