Buyer Beware? Fallout of Recent Years of Free Agency

Monday afternoon kicked off the NFL’s legal tampering period, leading to a flurry of news across the fantasy football landscape. (You can follow along with all the key fantasy moves with our tracker.)

For those unfamiliar, the legal tampering period is when teams can negotiate contracts with unsigned players before free agency, which begins Wednesday. As such, no deals become official until then, but signings are agreed upon in principle and announced accordingly.

We’ve got you covered here at FTN with instant reactions and takeaways for every individual move, but for this exercise, let’s take a step back for a more holistic view.

Recent free agency history can help give us a lot of context from which to operate.

With hindsight, we know that not all contracts are created equal. Similarly, not every player who signs a free-agent deal is guaranteed a significant role in their new offense. The 2025 NFL Draft is still ahead, and we could see a running back or wide receiver who seems like a “winner” eventually become a “loser” at the cost of a high-capital rookie at the same position.

So, how can we best digest this free agency news? How much money is substantial enough to expect a player to matter in fantasy? Can we put any meaningful stock into one-year deals?

With the help of Spotrac, we’ll try our best to answer some of those questions by looking at the past three years of free-agent contracts (including early 2025 deals) and what the history tells us in a position-by-position breakdown:

Impact of Recent Free Agency

Free Agent Quarterbacks

Fortunately, the quarterback market is relatively easy to interpret.

Most of the upper echelon of signal-callers, like the Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes, will ink a long-term extension with their team before ever reaching free agency — we don’t see bona fide difference-makers test the open market often.

Generally, free-agent quarterbacks are a mix of older veterans or younger and formerly high-drafted players who flamed out at previous stops looking to get another bite at the apple of being a franchise guy.

As of this writing, only four quarterbacks have signed a free-agent contract for longer than two years since 2022:

• Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints, 2023: $150 million, four years
• Jimmy Garoppolo, Las Vegas Raiders, 2023: $72.8 million, three years
• Kirk Cousins, Atlanta Falcons, 2024: $180 million, four years
• Sam Darnold, Seattle Seahawks, 2025: $100.5 million, three years

The rest of what we have to sort through in that timeframe is a barrage of short-term contracts. What does history tell us about these bridge options?

Since 2022, there have been 11 instances of a quarterback signing either a one- or two-year deal and going on to start at least five games for their respective team(s) the following season. According to Spotrac, the average annual salary value of that sample is $5.48 million, with only three of those quarterbacks (Marcus Mariota in 2022, Gardner Minshew II in 2023, Sam Darnold in 2024) signing deals north of $5 million.

A couple of key names to highlight from this sample are Baker Mayfield and Geno Smith, as they are the only two to eventually land long-term extensions from the clubs that took chances on them.

Both received three-year deals worth $75 million and $100 million, respectively, which is about what we just saw Seattle give to Sam Darnold to be the new Seahawks QB1.

Free Agent Quarterback Conclusions

The irony of Darnold being tapped to replace Smith aside, we have a good grasp on which quarterback contracts to take seriously. Any quarterback who signs for at least $5.5 million or so has a chance to be a starter; the further north above that line you go, the better.

While there’s no guarantee that a team won’t look to develop a young quarterback after signing a bridge option, simply being paid is half the battle.

On average, a team will rarely land its long-term quarterback through the market, so don’t expect to have to form any concrete opinions about dynasty value, either. Just be happy that the journeyman on your roster has an opportunity and hope for the best.

Free Agent Running Backs

It’s no secret that the NFL doesn’t like paying big contracts to running backs.

We don’t typically see teams invest heavily in free agency because rookie running back contracts are a) more cost-controlled and b) represent at least three or four years of quality production in and of themselves in theory. As a result, many of the ball carriers who land with new teams via the open market are prone to being overtaken by a rookie either outright from training camp or at some point during the regular season.

But while there may not be many long-term deals from which to glean information, we can look to the average annual value of free-agent running back contracts for some hints.

Since 2022, only eight backs inked agreements worth at least $7 million annually; among that sample, only Dalvin Cook (2023 with the Jets) failed to finish as the RB24 or better in total PPR scoring the following year, per FantasyData.

History tells us that teams serious about finding a running back answer will spend at least that much to do so. This information bodes well for the one-year, $9.5 million agreement between the Los Angeles Chargers and Najee Harris that was announced Monday evening.

But beyond that, the simple fact is that lower-cost free-agent running backs are poor-odds crapshoots that frequently do not pan out. Some recent examples, like Rico Dowdle leading the Dallas Cowboys’ backfield in 2024 on a $1.25 million deal, are relatively anomalous.

To highlight this fact, there were only seven instances in which a free-agent running back who signed for less than $5 million annual value went on to finish as a top-36 PPR back or better in total points scored in our three-year sample:

• Rico Dowdle, 2024 (RB23)
• J.K. Dobbins, Los Angeles Chargers, 2024 (RB24)
• Devin Singletary, Houston Texans, 2023 (RB32)
• Raheem Mostert, Miami Dolphins, 2023 (RB5)
• Raheem Mostert, Miami Dolphins, 2022 (RB25)
• Ezekiel Elliott, New England Patriots, 2023 (RB30)
• Cordarrelle Patterson, Atlanta Falcons, 2022 (RB32)

This isn’t to say that lower-cost 2025 signings like Javonte Williams (one year, $3 million with the Cowboys) won’t have an opportunity to succeed, but the last few years’ worth of evidence doesn’t support that being a strong likelihood.

Free Agent Running Back Conclusions

Simply put, money talks.

Aside from Miles Sanders, who signed a four-year, $25 million deal with the Carolina Panthers in 2023 before finishing as the RB52 the following season and sliding into irrelevance, running backs securing longer-term contracts are generally good bets.

Nothing is guaranteed if you earn less than that, and it’s even murkier unless you secure around $7 million annually. That’s why these early free agency “winners” are challenging to diagnose in the moment and require many factors to work in their favor.

Getting excited about the Javonte Williams signing or the $1.35 million “prove it” contract Rashaad Penny received from the Philadelphia Eagles in 2023 makes sense; neither player sees immediately apparent competition on their team’s roster, so why not be hyped?

But most likely, that franchise will make another move or draft a rookie to be the alpha of the backfield. Again, there were only seven instances of a sub-$5 million running back ending up as a flex option or better the following year since 2022, and two of them were Raheem Mostert by himself.

The history is clear: Don’t invest heavily in low-cost running backs until after the following NFL Draft. Getting too over your skis now is dangerous.

Free Agent Wide Receivers

Like quarterbacks, the top-shelf wide receivers in the NFL typically do not reach free agency. The few “big-name” wideouts who do are usually on the back end of their careers and have already made their fortune from prior contracts.

As such, this section reflects the reality that most free-agent wide receiver contracts have been worthless historically.

There have only been seven wide receivers to reach free agency and finish as a top-36 player in overall PPR scoring the following season since 2022:

• Christian Kirk, Jacksonville Jaguars, 2022: $72 million, four years (WR12)
• Zay Jones, Jacksonville Jaguars, 2022: $24 million, three years (WR26)
• Adam Thielen, Carolina Panthers, 2023: $25 million, three years (WR17)
• DeAndre Hopkins, Tennessee Titans, 2023: $26 million, two years (WR22)
• Jakobi Meyers, Las Vegas Raiders, 2023: $33 million, three years (WR24)
• Darnell Mooney, Atlanta Falcons, 2024: $39 million, three years (WR31)
• Calvin Ridley, Tennessee Titans, 2024: $92 million, four years (WR28)

Albeit in a small sample size, Meyers is actually the only receiver of the bunch to record multiple flex-worthy PPR seasons after signing (WR19 overall in 2024).

While the initial shock and awe of the financial figures given to pass-catchers can be tantalizing, there are plenty of recent examples of large contracts going to waste for fantasy purposes. Being too quick to assign “winners” is a major trap.

Don’t remember? Let’s take a quick stroll down memory lane for some free-agent bummers from recent years and where they finished in overall PPR scoring the following season to help jog your memory:

• Russell Gage, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 2022: $30 million, three years (WR53)
• Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Kansas City Chiefs, 2022): $30 million, three years (WR54)
• Allen Robinson, Los Angeles Rams, 2022: $46.5 million, three years (WR84)
• Allen Lazard, New York Jets, 2023: $44 million, four years (WR99)
• Curtis Samuel, Buffalo Bills, 2024: $24 million, three years (WR102)

It’s been a fairly sad state of affairs for free-agent wide receivers lately, so the question is, should we care about them at all?

Free Agent Wide Receiver Conclusions

The short answer here is “Don’t bother.”

Very little evidence in terms of average annual value or contract length gives us any strong indications as to whether or not a free-agent wideout will matter.

For what it’s worth, the average annual value of the successful wideouts from this sample is $13.5 million, and the “busts” AAV amounts to $10.9 million. Take that with whatever-sized grain of salt you need, but that’s the reality — you’re hoping for around $15 million AAV at least to feel a modicum of security.

So far, Davante Adams ($44 million, two years with the Los Angeles Rams) is only the abundantly obvious “winner” in 2025.

Expect many of the teams who sign available pass-catchers to utilize draft capital to find their long-term answers and/or fantasy-relevant contributors at the position.

Free Agent Tight Ends

At the risk of ending on a supremely anti-climactic note, there’s almost zero value to tracking fantasy value among free-agent tight ends.

Think about it — we’re talking about a position in which there are very few impactful fantasy contributors to begin with. Traditionally speaking, tight ends are asked to block in addition to their receiving responsibilities, and not many NFL teams frequently target tight ends in the passing game.

Among all tight ends who signed a free agent contract since 2022, only three finished within the top-12 at the position in PPR scoring the following year:

• Evan Engram, Jacksonville Jaguars, 2022: $9 million, one year (TE5)
• Dalton Schultz, Houston Texans, 2023: $6.25 million, one year (TE10)
• Jonnu Smith, Miami Dolphins, 2024: $8.4 million, two years (TE4)

Expanding the parameters a bit will show Tyler Conklin finish as the TE16 overall in 2022 after signing with the New York Jets and Mike Gesicki concluding his 2025 campaign with the Cincinnati Bengals with a TE13 finish, but even still, we’re not looking at a substantial crop of fantasy-relevant production from free agency.

It’s also worth mentioning that each of these players, including Conklin and Gesicki, recorded at least one season as the TE16 overall or better in PPR scoring with a different team before reaching free agency to being with!

We’re not even seeing surprising names emerge from free agency at tight end; everyone who became relevant down the line had already previously shown flashes.

Free Agent Tight End Conclusions

Most tight ends who reach free agency are either primarily blocking specialists, warm bodies for a new depth chart or special teams contributors in some capacity.

Fantasy managers, particularly those in dynasty leagues, are further ahead investing in proven names at the position or rolling the dice with young tight ends on rookie contracts. The evidence shows that most teams will identify their long-term pass-catching tight end (assuming they find one) via the NFL draft, not free agency.

Unless you’ve seen a free-agent tight end be fantasy relevance before hitting the open market, the odds of them landing a deal and breaking out are aggressively slim.