Who should be 1.01 in 2022 fantasy football drafts?

The FTN editors assigned me the easiest article of all-time: An early look at who should be drafted first overall in 2022 fantasy football drafts.

Draft Christian McCaffrey first overall in 2022.

That’s it. That’s the article.

Since I probably have to write more to keep my job, I’ll dive more into why McCaffrey is the solution to the 1.01 problem. I’ll also add a few other players you can consider other than CMC in case you like being wrong.

Is Christian McCaffrey injury-prone?

This is the sole reason people are even considering getting away from McCaffrey. 

It’s no secret that getting hurt is not good for fantasy value. But it’s not a death knell. Using data from FTN Data, from 2000 to 2020, RBs who played 13-plus games and averaged 10 touches per game in Year N went on to average 12.9 games played in Year N+1.

RBs who played 8 or fewer games and averaged 10 touches per game in Year N went on to average 11.5 games played in Year N+1.

There’s a difference, yes. But it’s not as stark as expected. Is it enough of a difference for you to consider McCaffrey significantly more “injury-prone” than any other RB? 

Factoring in his injury history, I’d say no.

• 2020: High-ankle sprain (right ankle)
• 2020: Shoulder sprain
• 2020: Thigh strain
• 2021: Hamstring strain
• 2021: Ankle sprain (left)

None of his recent injuries have been devastating, season-ending types (like an ACL or Achilles). None of his recent injuries have been repeats. He’s returned from all of these injuries (except for injuries that happened late in the season).

The ankle sprains and shoulder sprain can legitimately happen to any player touching the football. The soft-tissue injuries — his thigh and hamstring in two different seasons — are a little more concerning because those don’t usually happen on “freak accident” type plays.

Of all of McCaffrey’s injuries, the hamstring injury he suffered in Week 3 is the most concerning because it was an unusually long time to recover (nearly two months). But he did return and was a workhorse as usual.

Injuries are bad. Duh. But McCaffrey’s seem so different from lingering issues — such as a repeated knee injury (like what plagued Todd Gurley), or a back that has acted up his entire career, or a turf toe that lingers for years. He’s had completely unrelated injuries that he’s fully recovered from. 

Christian McCaffrey is a fantasy football demon

Now for some stats to remind you how good Christian McCaffrey is.

Since Week 8 of the 2018 season, McCaffrey has been the best fantasy football player we’ve seen in 20 years. 

In games in which McCaffrey has played at least 30 snaps, here are his ridiculous fantasy stats in PPR leagues:

• Top-12 fantasy RB 91% of the time
• Top-5 fantasy RB 75% of the time
• Top-3 fantasy RB 60% of the time
• Finishes outside of the top-15: Once (!) In 32 games

Let’s compare McCaffrey’s last full season to some dominant fantasy players of 2021:

• Cooper Kupp could have caught 25 touchdowns this year, and he still wouldn’t have scored as many points as CMC in 2019. (Using Kupp’s Weeks 1-17 only.)
• Jonathan Taylor scored an impressive 18 touchdowns this year. He could have scored 36 and he still wouldn’t have matched CMC in 2019.

And a bonus stat from 2021 to show that McCaffrey is still unreal:

• McCaffrey had four games with at least 24 PPR points in 2021 (in seven games played). Taylor had six (in 17). 

If you’re playing not to lose, you’ve already lost

Time for fantasy football 101.

Not drafting McCaffrey at 1.01 is a risk-averse move. The absolute worst time to make such a move is when the player with the highest upside in the game is on the board.

So many people are terrified of drafting McCaffrey this year because they don’t want to be stuck holding the bag if he gets hurt again. But you can’t even call McCaffrey high-risk, high-reward. It’s more like ”moderately higher risk with explosive, moon-shooting reward.”

Repeat after me: It’s OK to draft Christian McCaffrey. It means you’re playing to win. 

There is no reward in fantasy football like Christian McCaffrey going off. He is the ceiling shot.

If you refuse to draft McCaffrey…

If you like being wrong and decide to not draft McCaffrey, the only other players to consider are Taylor and Kupp.