NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
It’s time to look ahead to the 2023 NFL season! Follow along with all our fantasy football team offseason roundups here.
It’s been a very busy NFL offseason, with free agent signings, coaching changes and several new players entering the league via the NFL Draft. As we prepare for the 2023 fantasy football season, it’s critical to have a full understanding of each team’s offseason moves. Our NFL team roundup series today covers the Philadelphia Eagles.
2023 NFL Team Roundup: Philadelphia Eagles
2022 Results
Record: 14-3, 1st in the NFC East
Season End: Lost 38-35 versus the Kansas City Chiefs in the Super Bowl
Philadelphia Eagles Offseason Summary
Draft
1.9: Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia
1.30: Nolan Smith, LB, Georgia
3.65: Tyler Steen, OL, Alabama
3.66: Sydney Brown, S, Illinois
4.105: Kelee Ringo, CB, Georgia
6.188: Tanner McKee, QB, Stanford
7.249: Moro Ojomo, DT, Texas
Jalen Carter, DT (1.9)
The Eagles are in an unusual and enviable position returning the bulk of their core players from a Super Bowl team and adding a top-10 draft pick in Carter to replace their most significant free agent loss, defensive tackle Javon Hargrave. Carter has the size and strength to play defensive tackle and stop the run. But like Hargrave, he also has the athleticism to rush the passer and play edge. Many scouts considered Carter the best player in his draft class. Even his modest fall to the No. 9 pick reflects the character concerns that stem most notably from a racing and reckless driving incident that resulted in the deaths of a Georgia teammate and staffer.
Nolan Smith, LB (1.30)
Smith was the Eagles’ second Round 1 rookie pick from Georgia in 2023 and should be one of five Georgia Bulldogs — along with Jalen Carter, Kelee Ringo, Jordan Davis and Nakobe Dean — in the pro team’s defensive rotation. The theory might be that a core of former teammates can help Carter find a professional footing. But Smith is an undoubtedly exciting prospect on his own merits. His excellent 4.39-second speed and lighter 238-pound build might have earned him a tweener label last decade. But teammate Haason Reddick’s 16.0-sack 2022 season and fourth place Defensive Player of the Year acclaim debunk that concern and tease how well Smith could potentially fit in Philadelphia’s defensive scheme.
Tyler Steen, OL (3.65)
Steen has an impressive college resume as the left tackle heir to No. 7 draft pick Evan Neal at Alabama. And at 6-foot-6 and 321 pounds, Steen definitely has the size to play that most critical offensive line position at the next level. He likely lasted until the third round because of his 32-and-three-quarter-inch arms — tackles need longer arms to push pass rushers away from their bodies. But the Eagles will neatly sidestep that concern by presumably playing the rookie at right guard where Isaac Seumalo created the team’s lone line turnover with a free agent move to the Steelers.
Additions
Free agent signings: WR Olamide Zaccheaus, RB Rashaad Penny, S Terrell Edmunds, CB Greedy Williams, S Justin Evans, EDGE Kentavius Street, TE Dan Arnold, LB Nicholas Morrow
Trades: RB D’Andre Swift
D’Andre Swift, RB
The Eagles once again demonstrated their analytical savvy in trading a modestly valuable future fourth-round draft pick for Swift after the Lions overpaid for his replacement Jahmyr Gibbs with an early first-rounder. Swift would have been one of just six backs with a better rushing DVOA rate than Miles Sanders in 2022 if he had held up for just one more carry and reached the 100-attempt qualification standard. The former Lions back missed time in all three of his seasons with his former team and remains a health risk in 2023. But the Eagles hedged those bets with backfield depth in Rashaad Penny, Boston Scott and Kenneth Gainwell. And if he can stay on the field, Swift will add a dimension that his predecessor Sanders did not in recent season. Swift is one of the best receiving backs in football.
Rashaad Penny, RB
Penny’s sleeper buzz faded quickly when the Eagles traded for D’Andre Swift. But the former Seahawks back ranks a comfortable first among backs with 300 or more carries with a 9.8% explosive play rate since he was drafted in 2018. His one-year, $1.4 million prove-it deal is a result of frequent injuries. And while it is difficult to bet on a fully healthy 2023 season, Penny seems likely to be excellent when he plays. And he could see extra opportunities to turn his luck around since Swift has had his own checkered injury track record.
It isn’t clear whether the Eagles’ decision to extend cornerback James Bradberry and let safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson walk was more football Moneyball or simply a case of a team and a player disagreeing on the latter’s value. GM Howie Roseman told reporters that he offered Gardner-Johnson a multi-year contract extension but moved on once the safety declined. Edmunds is a dramatically less expensive five-year starter. And while he is unlikely to match his predecessor’s position-leading six interceptions from 2022, Gardner-Johnson was unlikely to repeat that feat, as well. He had just five interceptions in his previous three professional seasons combined.
Departures
DT Javon Hargrave, EDGE Robert Quinn, RB Miles Sanders, T Andre Dillard, LB T.J. Edwards, S Marcus Epps, G Isaac Seumalo, S C.J. Gardner-Johnson, LB Kyzir White, QB Gardner Minshew, WR Zach Pascal, DT Linval Joseph, DT Ndamukong Suh, P Brett Kern
Javon Hargrave, DT
Top 10 rookie pick Jalen Carter has the talent to replace Hargrave. But the seven-year veteran earned a rare $40 million guaranteed contract at 30 years old from the 49ers with his rare versatility. Hargrave was one of just five primary defensive tackles — along with Chris Jones, Quinnen Williams, Daron Payne and Cameron Heyward — to reach a double-digit sack total in 2022.
Miles Sanders, RB
Sanders has been one of the most efficient backs in football the last three seasons, measured either by his 5.2 yards per attempt or his 12.0% rushing DVOA rate. But the Eagles made a smart decision and avoided a frequent Super Bowl team trap in letting him leave in free agency. And it isn’t just a blanket statement on modern running back value. Jalen Hurts and the No. 2 offensive line in run block win rate were major contributors to Sanders’ success. The veteran averaged 2.73 yards before contact in 2022, third highest among backs with 150 or more carries. With similar run-friendly circumstances, D’Andre Swift, Rashaad Penny and Boston Scott can match Sanders’ efficiency or at least come close and for a lot less money.
Offensive lines live and die by their weakest links, and so the Eagles have to be at least a little concerned to lose a starter from their standout 2022 unit. But Seumalo was more excellent than otherworldly with a 1.9% blown pass block rate last season. Landon Dickerson, Jason Kelce and Lane Johnson had half or better blown pass block rates, the latter despite a more difficult right tackle position. Seumalo’s replacement Tyler Steen will have a learning curve as a rookie and as a traditional tackle. But at least in theory, he will move to an easier position as a professional.
Shane Steichen, OC
The Eagles may have retained the bulk of their most important Super Bowl players in 2023. But the team lost its offensive coordinator Steichen and defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon to head coaching positions with the Colts and Cardinals this offseason. Steichen seems like the more meaningful loss since the Eagles run a non-traditional offensive scheme to suit their versatile quarterback Jalen Hurts. But head coach Nick Sirianni came up as an offensive coordinator, and the Eagles will maintain some continuity with an internal OC promotion of former quarterbacks coach Brian Johnson.
Philadelphia Eagles Fantasy Outlook
The three most interesting Eagles fantasy options:
DeVonta Smith, WR
DeVonta Smith answered the broader questions about his small stature and Jalen Hurts’ capacity to support multiple receivers in fantasy with a breakout 95-catch, 1,196-yard sophomore season. With the Eagles poised to bring back their core from a Super Bowl run, Smith makes a compelling case for top-10 receiver status. My one reticence is what Smith’s 170-pound frame means for his touchdown potential. He has a middling total of 12 touchdowns in two healthy seasons. And while many of the best receivers needed a season or two to develop to a double-digit touchdown standard, Smith saw a modest 14 red zone targets in 2022, tied for just 23rd at his position.
Jalen Hurts, QB
Jalen Hurts has made major strides as a passer, increasing his accuracy percentage from 89.1% in 2021 to 95.7% in 2022 and his passing EPA from 0.055 per play in 2020 and 2021 to 0.147 per play in 2022. But rushing has been the key to his fantasy excellence. His 12 carries within 5 yards of the end zone in 2021 led the position by four. And his 19 carries within 5 yards of the end zone in 2022 led the position by seven. As long as he keeps that usage up, Hurts will continue to be a no-brainer top-five fantasy quarterback.
Kenneth Gainwell, RB
Kenneth Gainwell had about six weeks between Miles Sanders signing with the Panthers and the Eagles trading for D’Andre Swift to spur buzz of a Year 3 fantasy breakout. But while Gainwell lags behind his new teammates Swift and Rashaad Penny in prospect pedigree and career accomplishment, the incumbent Eagles back was exceptionally efficient with a 24.7% rushing DVOA rate in 2022. And he carved out a niche with a 64.4% third-down snap share that was top 10 at the position despite Sanders’ presence. Gainwell should play a role this season. And he has decent upside because of his new teammate’s injury histories.
2023 Outlook
DraftKings Sportsbook Wins Over/Under: 11.5 (-110)
The Eagles will have to contend with the hangover of a Super Bowl loss that has — at least in the public mind — sunk the bulk of teams in their shoes in the last decade. But they are better equipped to repeat their 2022 success than most of those predecessors. The team retains its franchise quarterback, most important skill talent and most important offensive and defensive linemen. And they had unusual draft capital for a team with their success to add impact players like Jalen Carter and Nolan Smith. The Eagles lost their offensive and defensive coordinators and are a decent bet to see their plus-eight turnover differential and record-breaking sack totals regress. But even with those expected losses, the team may only need decent health to repeat as NFC East champions and win 12 or more games again.
