Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
It’s time to look ahead to the 2023 NFL season! Follow along with all our fantasy football team offseason roundups here.
It’s been a very busy NFL offseason, with free agent signings, coaching changes and several new players entering the league via the NFL Draft. As we prepare for the 2023 fantasy football season, it’s critical to have a full understanding of each team’s offseason moves. Our NFL team roundup series today covers the Dallas Cowboys.
2023 NFL Team Roundup: Dallas Cowboys
2022 Results
Record: 12-5, 2nd in the NFC East
Season End: Lost 19-12 at the San Francisco 49ers in the Divisional Round
Dallas Cowboys Offseason Summary
Draft
1.26: Mazi Smith, DT, Michigan
2.58: Luke Schoonmaker, TE, Michigan
3.90: DeMarvion Overshown, LB, Texas
4.129: Viliami Fehoko, DL, San Jose State
5.169: Asim Richards, T, North Carolina
6.178: Eric Scott, CB, Southern Miss
6.212: Deuce Vaughn, RB, Kansas State
7.244: Jalen Brooks, WR, South Carolina
Luke Schoonmaker, TE (2.58)
The Cowboys may have lamented the Bills’ draft-day trade up and Dalton Kincaid selection a pick before their No. 26 draft slot. But Schoonmaker is an excellent Plan B at the position. He likely earned his Day 2 draft selection with his run-blocking abilities. But Schoonmaker compares favorably to the player he will try to replace in Dallas, Dalton Schultz, with his receiving efficiency at Michigan, solid 4.63-second 40 time, and excellent 127-inch broad jump.
Eric Scott, CB (6.178)
No. 1 cornerback Trevon Diggs regressed from a position-leading 11 interceptions in 2021 to just three picks in 2022. But Diggs traded some of those turnovers for fewer explosive offensive plays and cut his yards per target from 8.8 in 2021 to 7.9 in 2022. He deserves his Pro Bowl recognition. But the Cowboys still suffered their biggest defensive shortcoming at cornerback as No. 2 options Jourdan Lewis and Anthony Brown missed time with Lisfranc and Achilles injuries. Former Defensive Player of the Year Stephon Gilmore could upgrade that position massively this season. But he’s also on the back nine of his career at 32 years old. Despite his sixth-round draft status, Scott will have a chance to earn a starting spot in his second or third professional season. He just needs to refine his technique to pair with the tremendous athleticism he showed in 39.5-inch vertical and 133-inch broad jumps in the individual drill work he uploaded to YouTube — the Southern Mississippi product wasn’t invited to the combine.
Deuce Vaughn, RB (6.212)
The Cowboys were a popular mock draft destination for myriad Day 1 and 2 running back prospects after they released Ezekiel Elliott and failed to make a major free agent addition at the position. Instead, they waited until the sixth round to add to their backfield and picked a player that no one would confuse with the player he will replace on the depth chart, the 5-foot-5, 179-pound Vaughn. Vaughn is an incredible long shot to ever match Elliott’s 250-touch standard at his small stature. But the rookie did survive a 335-touch season at Kansas State in 2022. And he should at least contribute to a Cowboys backfield with his excellent balance and versatility as a runner and receiver.
Additions
Free agent signings: LS Trent Sieg, RB Ronald Jones, T Chuma Edoga
Trades: WR Brandin Cooks, CB Stephon Gilmore
Brandin Cooks, WR
Cooks failed to crack 1,000 receiving yards in 2022 for just the second time in eight seasons. But that was far from all the receiver’s own fault. Cooks saw particularly poor quarterback play in his third Houston season and suffered a more than 10% decline from a 75.9% catchable target rate in 2021 to a 65.6% rate in 2022. Cooks is a major rebound candidate with a quarterback upgrade to Dak Prescott in 2023.
Stephon Gilmore, CB
As cornerbacks often do, Stehpon Gilmore faded quickly from the sub-6.0-yards-per-target standard that earned him All-Pro distinctions in 2018 and 2019 and Defensive Player of the Year honors in 2019. But multiple trades and uninspiring Panthers and Colts teams have obscured the fact that Gilmore recovered from the quad surgery that precipitated his trade from the Patriots and plateaued in his early-30s decline. His 6.5 yards per target allowed in 2022 was top 40 among regular cornerbacks. And if healthy, he and Trevon Diggs should be one of the top cornerback duos in football this season.
Ronald Jones, RB
Jones contract that includes just $300,000 of guaranteed money labels him a likely No. 3 back if he even makes the 53-man roster. But given the dearth of other Cowboys additions, it’s worth noting that Jones has averaged 3.04 yards after contact per attempt since 2019, the seventh highest rate among backs with 300 or more carries. The veteran could carve out a red zone role that matters for Tony Pollard’s fantasy potential.
Departures
RB Ezekiel Elliott, G Connor McGovern, CB Anthony Brown, TE Dalton Schultz, WR Noah Brown, LB Anthony Barr, T Jason Peters, LB Luke Gifford, WR T.Y. Hilton, DT Carlos Watkins, LS Jake McQuaide, CB Isaac Taylor-Stuart, LS Matt Overton, LB Devante Bond, K Brett Maher, G Dakoda Shepley, G Aviante Collins, TE Ian Bunting
Ezekiel Elliott, RB
Owner Jerry Jones may have drafted Elliott with a top-five draft pick and handed him a $90 million contract extension when other owners wouldn’t have. But even Jones could not deny Elliott’s downward trajectory in recent seasons. The veteran back declined from 3.10 yards after contact per attempt in 2019 to 2.79, 2.57 and 1.91 the last three seasons. And he suffered his two worst broken tackle rate seasons with 11.8% and 15.2% rates in 2021 and 2022. Elliott may still be young a month out from his 28th birthday. But seven years of bell-cow workloads have caught up to him and may spur a sudden-seeming end to his days as an NFL starter.
As players like Elliott and Dak Prescott have signed massive extensions in recent years, the Cowboys have seen a slow erosion of their once loaded offensive line. That trend continued this offseason with McGovern leaving for the Bills. But Dallas has hung onto top seven run block win rates the last two seasons and have a decent chance of doing so again in 2023 without the veteran. McGovern blew 3.5% of his run blocks in 2022, which was easily the highest rate of the five Cowboys linemen with 200 or more run block snaps.
Dalton Schultz, TE
Up against the salary cap, the Cowboys had to make difficult decisions this offseason. I suspect that explains their decision to let Schultz walk despite a just $11.3 million potential tight end franchise tag. Some might argue that Schultz is a product of an excellent quarterback in Dak Prescott and tremendous surrounding offensive talent. But the veteran tight end put up 1.55 yards per route run in 2022, the 10th-best rate among the 22 tight ends with 300 or more routes run.
Kellen Moore, OC
Moore could not survive the Cowboys’ second straight early playoff exit. But the team’s long-time offensive coordinator did spearhead a top six passing offense in two of his four seasons with the team and an upper half passing offense in all three of his seasons with a healthy Dak Prescott. Moore feels like a scapegoat. And head coach Mike McCarthy’s plan to call offensive plays in 2023 may not move the needle. McCarthy was seldom praised for his playcalling creativity in his 13 seasons with the Packers.
Dallas Cowboys Fantasy Outlook
The three most interesting Cowboys fantasy options:
Tony Pollard, RB
Tony Pollard has finally escaped the Ezekiel Elliott timeshare that capped his fantasy ceiling despite consistently excellent rushing and receiving efficiency. And recent updates on his recovery from a broken leg have him on track for Week 1 and make a compelling case for Round 1 fantasy consideration. But at 6-foot-0 and 209 pounds (28.3 BMI), Pollard is undersized for a typical bell-cow back. And he faces potential regression from a 6.66-expected-touchdown surplus that was highest at his position. With such extreme positive and negative pulls, Pollard could make or break fantasy teams in 2023.
CeeDee Lamb, WR
CeeDee Lamb made the No. 1 receiver leap the Cowboys hoped he could after the team traded his former top running mate Amari Cooper to the Browns last offseason. But even without former top tight end Dalton Schultz, the Cowboys should be better at receiver this season than they were in 2022. Free agent addition Brandin Cooks has six 1,000-yard seasons in his last eight years. Michael Gallup looks healthy and explosive at OTAs after missing time and underwhelming with a knee injury the last two seasons. And former Day 2 draft pick Jalen Tolbert will have a chance to step forward in his sophomore season after a quiet rookie campaign with just two receptions. None of those receivers should threaten Lamb’s No. 1 standing with the team. But they could cut into Lamb’s volume and sabotage an aggressive top 12 average draft position.
Dak Prescott, QB
Dak Prescott suffered a devastating ankle injury in 2020 and has dramatically cut his rushing in the two years since. It’s difficult to stand out in fantasy with fewer than 200 rushing yards per season. And it’s almost impossible without a carry within 5 yards of the end zone — which Prescott did not have in 2022 — now that dual-threat quarterbacks like Jalen Hurts and Daniel Jones are more rule than exception at the position. Prescott may need 5,000 yards and 30 touchdowns through the air to earn top eight fantasy value in 2023. But his skill and the Cowboys’ running back losses make those totals possible.
2023 Outlook
DraftKings Sportsbook Wins Over/Under: 9.5 (-165)
The Cowboys have a handful of the characteristics that have historically led teams to see their records fade the next season. They were better on defense (second in DVOA) than on offense in 2022 (15th). They fueled that former success with a plus-10 turnover differential that was second highest in football. They played the sixth-easiest schedule. And they lost their offensive coordinator. I would be scared to bet on their over or pick them to jump the dominant Eagles in the NFC East. But the Cowboys faced similar sources of potential regression the year before and beat the odds to return to the playoffs. If the team can continue to outpace the competition in drafting and developing talent, then the Cowboys can continue their postseason streak.
