NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
With the start of the 2023 NFL and fantasy football season around the corner, I will be going team by team recapping notable moves in the offseason, projecting their outlook for the upcoming league year. I’ll be using the FTN Prop Shop Tool to pick out my favorite bets with the best line available, today covering the New England Patriots. Stay up to date on the action placed by myself and the rest of the FTN crew in real-time with the FTN Bet Tracker. You can also follow @FTNAlerts on Twitter with push notifications turned on.
2023 NFL Team Roundup: New England Patriots
2022 Results
Record: 8-9; 3rd in the AFC East
Season End: Missed the playoffs
New England Patriots Offseason Summary
Draft
1.17: Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon
2.46: Keion White, EDGE, Georgia Tech
3.76: Marte Mapu, LB/S, Sacramento State
4.107: Jake Andrews, C, Troy
4.112: Chad Ryland, K, Maryland
4.117: Sidy Sow, G, Eastern Michigan
5.144: Atonio Mafi, G, UCLA
6.187: Kayshon Boutte, WR, LSU
6.192: Bryce Baringer, P, Michigan State
6.210: Demario Douglas, WR, Liberty
6.214: Ameer Speed, DB, Michigan State
7.245: Isaiah Bolden, CB, Jackson State
Christian Gonzalez, CB (1.17)
The Patriots may have missed on many of their high draft picks from recent seasons. But the team has enjoyed tremendous success with Day 3 and undrafted cornerbacks over the last decade like Jonathan Jones, J.C. Jackson and Jack Jones. Mid-first-round rookie Christian Gonzalez could fall in either bucket. He put up outrageous combine numbers like a 4.38-second 40 time and 41.5-inch vertical jump. But he could be poised to start in Week 1, a difficult proposition for even many of the eventual best corners in football.
Kayshon Boutte, WR (6.187)
Kayshon Boutte is a former five-star prospect who hit the ground running with 45 catches and 735 yards as a freshman for LSU the year after the mass exodus of the 15-0, Joe Burrow title team stars. Boutte might have been the first receiver picked if he could have entered the 2021 draft. Instead, he missed half of his sophomore season with an ankle injury and underwhelmed in his junior season, often playing second fiddle to the less experienced Malik Nabers. Now, scouts can’t seem to agree whether the Patriots found the steal of the draft in the sixth round or whether Boutte will never make it in the NFL, because of that ankle injury or otherwise. With his track record of receiver draft picks, Bill Belichick sure could use the former.
Malik Cunningham, QB (UDFA)
Malik Cunningham wasn’t actually a draft pick. He went undrafted out of Louisville. But the concerns for his slender frame and deep accuracy sound similar to those of another Louisville product — albeit one with a dramatically better draft pedigree. And while Cunningham may be a long shot to start games in his professional career, reporters have observed him running drills with wide receivers this offseason. And there is at least a small chance Bill Belichick has found his version of Sean Payton’s favorite package player, Taysom Hill.
Additions
Free agent signings: WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, T Calvin Anderson, LB Chris Board, T Riley Reiff, TE Mike Gesicki, RB James Robinson, TE Anthony Firkser, QB Trace McSorley, P Corliss Waitman
Bill O’Brien, OC
At 71 years old, Hall of Fame head coach Bill Belichick walks a fine line between crazy and crazy like a fox. And his ploy to use former defensive coordinator and reviled Lions head coach Matt Patricia as a de facto offensive coordinator proved to be the former. O’Brien is not the most inspired hire as a previous Patriots and more recent Alabama OC — Belichick has a reputation of leaning too heavily on Nick Saban’s prospect opinions. But O’Brien should not need to be a 53-year-old Kyle Shanahan or Ben Johnson to right the ship for franchise quarterback Mac Jones.
Mike Gesicki, TE
The Patriots could not rediscover the two-TE magic of Rob Gronkowski’s glory days with high-priced free agent additions Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith. But they aim to try again this season with Gesicki in place of Smith. The swap is a strange one from certain angles. Smith has the best reputation of the trio as a blocker and ran routes on about half as many pass snaps as his replacement in 2022 (35.0% vs. 68.2%). But Gesicki cost the Patriots a modest $3.5 million in guarantees after a poor Dolphins scheme fit sabotaged his 2022 production. And at his best, Gesicki stretched the field with an 11.1-yard average depth of target. He could sneakily complement a receiver room with more quick-cutters — like JuJu Smith-Schuster and Kendrick Bourne — and ball-winners — like DeVante Parker — than field-stretchers.
Riley Reiff, T
Bill Belichick has traded away countless productive veterans a year before they hit the wall. It’s hard to question that track record. But it was still surprising to see Belichick let former first-round tackle Isaiah Wynn walk just two seasons removed from a 1.8% blown block rate that ranked top 10 among regular left tackles. Riley Reiff has been better and healthier more recently. But he’s also twice as expensive and seven years older. And despite a free agent addition of former Broncos swing tackle Calvin Anderson and three offensive line draft picks in Rounds 4 and 5 this offseason, the Patriots do not have an apparent long-term plan for right tackle.
Departures
WR Jakobi Meyers, QB Brian Hoyer, WR Nelson Agholor, T Isaiah Wynn, RB Damien Harris, P Jake Bailey, CB Joejuan Williams, S Devin McCourty, DT Carl Davis, T Marcus Cannon, K Quinn Nordin
Jakobi Meyers, WR
Jakobi Meyers and his effective free agent replacement JuJu Smith-Schuster are the same style of players. Both run a heavy chunk of their routes from the slot, and both see relatively low average target depths (9.9 and 7.3 in 2022) because of it. But the Patriots’ penny-pinching maneuver could risk their locker room as many of his former teammates panned the decision in the press.
Damien Harris, RB
Damien Harris was more than a touchdown scorer with the Patriots. He ranked in the upper half of regular running backs with 2.58 yards after contact per attempt the last three seasons. But his successor Rhamondre Stevenson was top 10 in that respect with 2.98 average yards after contact, and he paired that with a 7.4% explosive run rate that was also top 10. Stevenson has the skills to be one of the best featured backs in football. But it remains a question whether the Patriots will share his workload with some combination of free agent addition James Robinson, sophomore runners Pierre Strong and Kevin Harris and receiving back Ty Montgomery.
At 35 years old, Devin McCourty cannot match the talent of his safety heirs, Kyle Dugger and Adrian Phillips. But McCourty was the last defensive holdover of the Tom Brady Patriots dynasty. And now, three quarters of the projected Patriots secondary are 27, 25 and 20 years old. I don’t believe a 71-year-old Bill Belichick wants to rebuild. But call it a retooling, maybe. And that turnover may finally have the team trending upward, again.
Schedule
Week 1 – @ Philadelphia Eagles (Patriots+4.5)
Week 2 – Miami Dolphins
Week 3 – @ New York Jets
Week 4 – @ Dallas Cowboys
Week 5 – New Orleans Saints
Week 6 – @ Las Vegas Raiders
Week 7 – Buffalo Bills
Week 8 – @ Miami Dolphins
Week 9 – Washington Commanders
Week 10 – Indianapolis Colts
Week 11 – BYE
Week 12 – New York Giants
Week 13 – Los Angeles Chargers
Week 14 – @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Week 15 – Kansas City Chiefs
Week 16 – @ Denver Broncos
Week 17 – @ Buffalo Bills
Week 18 – New York Jets
2023 Future Odds
Unibet/Second-Chance Bet: Wins Over/Under: 7.5 (-125/+101)
PointsBet/Unibet/Second-Chance Bet: To Win AFC East (+900)
The Patriots nearly sneaked into the playoffs last season, needing one more win to get in as a Wild Card. They remained in the hunt all season before getting eliminated by Buffalo in a lopsided affair in the final game of the regular season. The team has not been the same dominant force without Tom Brady, finishing no higher than second in the AFC East and with only one playoff appearance over the last three seasons. Despite winning 8-plus games in back-to-back seasons, I’m taking the under on New England’s 7.5-win total, facing the toughest ranked strength of schedule among all teams in 2023. I’m not interested in backing them to win the AFC East, with the Patriots most likely finishing last in the division. They had the third-best record in the AFC East last season, one game ahead of the Jets’ who just added a future hall-of-fame quarterback. Although the offense should improve with a real offensive coordinator in Bill O’Brien, the roster does not have enough firepower to be taken as legitimate contenders.
Best Bets
DraftKings: Rhamondre Stevenson Under 1,000.5 Rushing Yards (-130)
The Patriots’ offense ran through Rhamondre Stevenson last season, giving the second-year running back as much as he can handle. With Damien Harris rotating in and out of the lineup, limited and missing games due to injuries and health, Stevenson handled bell cow usage with no one else to take away backfield touches. In the five games Harris missed, Stevenson averaged an absurd 84.4% snap share, rarely leaving the field. Despite his heavy workload, Stevenson played all 17 games, posting his first 1,000-yard season, rushing for 1,040 yards on 210 carries. He also played a significant role as a receiver, finishing second on the team in targets (88) and first in receptions (69), posting top four marks in both categories among all backs in 2022. With the addition of Ezekiel Elliott and a new offensive scheme under Bill O’Brien, it is unlikely Stevenson will see the same level of volume, which has me taking the under on his 1,000.5 rushing yard prop. Elliot may not be who he once was, but he was still effective in short-yardage situations, finishing top-10 at the position in first down conversion rate inside of five yards (62.5%) and on third downs (72%).
FanDuel: Ezekiel Elliott Under 4.5 Rushing Touchdowns (-142)
After seven seasons with Dallas, Ezekiel Elliott found a new home in New England, signing a one-year deal with the Patriots last week. Elliott took a back seat to Tony Pollard last season, struggling with injuries and posting career-low marks in carries (231) and rushing yards (876). However, he was no stranger to the end zone, scoring 10 rushing touchdowns, tied for fifth among all players in 2022. With that said, I’m still taking the under on 4.5 rushing touchdowns for Elliott next season, not expecting nearly as many scoring opportunities. Although the Patriots will be operating in a new offensive system under Bill O’Brien, it’s unlikely that they will come anywhere close to matching the Cowboys’ scoring output last season, averaging the fourth most points per game in 2022 (27.5). New England ranked below the league average in that category, finishing 17th in points per game (21.4). It’s also no guarantee Elliott usurps Stevenson as the goal line back, though Stevenson only scored five rushing touchdowns as an every-down back.
