2023 NFL Betting Futures: NFC South

The month of July officially signals the NFL season is coming fast. Training camps will start for rookies in two weeks, with veterans reporting about one week after. The NFL Hall of Fame Game is in less than a month, which signals the perfect time to identify some fantastic season-long props.

The earlier we can find an edge in the season-long market, the better our chance of getting fantastic value. As training camps progress, we receive more information on critical variables such as competition, usage, and potential injuries. As we enter the final stagnant time of the NFL betting market, let’s take a closer look at my favorite season-long prop bets from the NFC South.

(All my lines are what I saw as I wrote it. They might not match the odds you find when you read the article.)

NFL Player Futures for 2023: NFC South

Derek Carr 3,800.5 Passing Yards

There seems to be overwhelming confidence in the New Orleans Saints this season.

Count me among the skeptics.

New Orleans is the current favorite (+120) at DraftKings to win the NFC South, and I still don’t understand why. Pete Carmichael will become the fifth offensive coordinator quarterback Derek Carr has worked with in his nine-year NFL career. Here are his first-year stats with the prior four playcallers:

2014: 58.1% CMP, 3270 passing yds, 21 TDs, 12 INTs
2015: 61.1% CMP, 3987 passing yds, 32 TDs, 13 INTs
2017: 62.7% CMP, 3496 passing yds, 22 TDs, 13 INTs
2022: 60.8% CMP, 3522 passing yds, 24 TDs, 14 INTs

Those are solid, but unspectacular numbers. Carr has registered four seasons with a 67% or better completion rate and 4,000 or more passing yards, but none of those occurred in his first season with a new offensive coordinator. Considering Carr wasn’t able to dramatically improve last year even with the addition of All-Pro wideout Davante Adams, I’m hesitant to back his production during his first season in New Orleans. Carr’s career TD:INT ratio is also concerningly high, especially during the first year with a new OC.

The Saints were also among the slowest-paced teams in the NFL last year. New Orleans ranked fourth worst in situation-neutral pace. They were one of four teams (Rams, Commanders, Titans) to average over 33 seconds per play. Per our FTN Pace Tool, the Saints ran the eighth-fewest plays per game (59.71) last season.

Carr certainly has weapons in wideouts Michael Thomas and Chris Olave and should have pass-catching running back Alvin Kamara for at least some of the 2023 season (suspension pending). However, given the change in teams and lack of consistency from Carr in similar situations, I’m grabbing the under of his season passing yardage total.

The Pick

Derek Carr Under 3,800.5 Passing Yards (-112, FanDuel Sportsbook)

Kyle Pitts 750.5 Receiving Yards

Find someone who loves you the way NFL fans love Kyle Pitts.

There is supreme confidence among fantasy players and bettors that the explosive Atlanta tight end will truly break out this season. Pitts did register over 1,000 receiving yards as a rookie, and his 4.49 speed at 6-foot-6 is conducive for big pass plays at any time. However, I’m fading Pitts’ 2023 receiving yardage prop in this conservative Atlanta offense.

Most of the optimism surrounding Pitts is based on 2021, but the Atlanta offense is very different from his rookie year. During that season, he caught passes from veteran Matt Ryan, who was a prolific passer and former NFL MVP. The Falcons also struggled to find consistency in their running game, producing just 1,100 yards between converted wideout Cordarrelle Patterson and veteran Mike Davis. Finally, Pitts had minimal target competition from Patterson and veteran wide receiver Russell Gage. All three of those variables are very different in 2023.

The biggest change is at quarterback, with the unproven Desmond Ridder ascending to the starting role after just four starts during his rookie season. Atlanta also spent massive draft capital on dynamic rookie running back Bijan Robinson, who will command a strong weekly touch share. Finally, Pitts now has legitimate target competition from last year’s eighth-overall pick, wide receiver Drake London. Using our FTN Player Utilization Tool, we see that London’s 29% target share even exceeded Pitts 27% mark when healthy.

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London is the projected top receiving option in an offense that will be among the run-heaviest in the league. The Falcons ranked second with 32.9 rushing attempts per game, trailing only Philadelphia (33.2) last season.

To summarize, we have an Atlanta team that projects run-heavy, with an inexperienced quarterback, that spent high draft capital on a generational running back, with a second-year wide receiver that was the primary passing game target. This all adds up to a fade on Kyle Pitts, even with his explosive athleticism.

The Pick

Kyle Pitts Under 750.5 Receiving Yards (-130, Caesars)

Mike Evans 925.5 Receiving Yards

There is a lot of uncertainty in a post-Tom Brady world in Tampa Bay, and uncertainty provides betting opportunities.

Mike Evans has set the record for most consecutive 1,000-yard seasons to start a career. He has reached that barrier for an incredible nine straight seasons and needs just two more to reach the overall record (11) set by the legendary Jerry Rice. However, Evans has never entered a season with more offensive challenges.

Veteran Baker Mayfield assumes the starting quarterback role, which will undoubtedly be a dropoff from Brady. Mayfield is still only 28 years old but has only started 12 games in the past two seasons. He has not been particularly accurate, only carrying a 61.4% career completion percentage. Evans does not win with speed (4.53 40-yard dash), but rather with contested catches. At 6-foot-5, Evans is at his best on deep ball attempts, and finished third among all wideouts in targets over 15 yards. He also has finished outside the top 35 wideouts in yards after catch over the past two seasons. Will Mayfield be able to be accurate enough to maintain the deep-ball production Evans needs to eclipse 1,000 yards again?

Per our FTN Directional Tool, it’s easy to see how much Evans relies on deep-ball production. Compare his production to teammate Chris Godwin, and the difference is staggering.

In fact, Evans’ 19 combined receptions to the deep left/right of the field were second-most, trailing only Justin Jefferson (25). While his consistency is legendary, that level of deep-ball production is tethered to quarterback performance.

There is a ton of variation on this prop, ranging from 850.5 receiving yards on FanDuel, to the 925.5 receiving yards at Caesars. The juice at 925.5 receiving yards on DraftKings is actually -140. I’m opting for the comfort of the higher number and love the price of +100 at Caesars.