100 Questions: Fantasy Football 2023 (AFC East)

(As we head toward training camp and the start of preseason, our own Daniel Kelley is asking — and attempting to answer — the most pressing questions around fantasy football for 2023. This is 100 Questions.)

AFC East

Wild Card teams aren’t supposed to win playoff games. They’re underdogs and given road games for a reason. But they do it anyway. At least one Wild Card team has won a playoff game in nine of the last 10 years (2016 the exception), multiple Wild Card winners in seven of those 10. In 2015, all four Wild Card teams beat all four division winners on Wild Card Weekend. So maybe they aren’t supposed to win games, but they do.

The AFC East has not gotten that memo, though.

Every other division has had at least one Wild Card representative win a playoff game within the last five seasons, but the AFC East hasn’t had a Wild Card winner since the Jets way back in the 2010-2011 season. Plenty of division winners making runs, but the AFC East Wild Cards have just been cannon fodder. This year, the division is pretty stacked, but can they break the trend?

Buffalo Bills

You remember when Shelley Long left Cheers, only they immediately brought in Kirstie Alley and kept chugging along at the top of the charts? That’s the AFC East, where Tom Brady’s departure removed the Patriots from the top of the heap, only for the Bills to slide right in there like Rebecca Howe and become the new dominant team. Does this metaphor work? I dunno. But it’s fun.

53. Is Gabe Davis the Post-Hype Sleeper of Our Dreams?

The Issue

• After almost equal 2020 and 2021 seasons (35-62-599-7, then 35-63-549-6), Davis’ ADP skyrocketed to WR25 in the wake of Emmanuel Sanders’ and Cole Beasley’s departures and his famous playoff game
• Davis had two top-10 weeks, four top-20 weeks, but no top-30 weeks after Week 10; finished WR36 in PPR
• Davis’ 2023 ADP is WR40

Best Answer

Despite working in one of the league’s most efficient offenses, Gabe Davis averaged only 1.43 yards per route run in 2022. That’s fairly pitiful, and if it were our only data point for the receiver I’d be out. But it isn’t. The year before, Davis’ YPRR was 1.62, which also isn’t great, but as the team’s No. 4 or No. 5 target, it’s much more encouraging. He’s still only 24, and of course he played through a nagging Week 1 ankle injury most of last season. The Bills’ biggest offseason additions at pass-catcher were a 5-foot-6 veteran with under 100 targets in four seasons (Deonte Harty), a fifth-round rookie (Justin Shorter) and a first-round tight end (Dalton Kincaid). Maybe you think Kincaid will soak up Davis’ work, but I’m of the mind that we’re in for the Davis breakout we thought we were getting last year. I’m not taking him at WR24, but he’s a borderline top-30 receiver for me with upside for more.

54. Dalton Kincaid: Fantasy Starter at TE, Even As a Rookie?

The Issue

• Kincaid had the top PFF receiving grade in all of college football last year (92.3), with a 75.9% catch percentage, 8 touchdowns, 2.54 yards per route run and 1 drop on 87 targets
• The Bills still have Dawson Knox, but their slot role is going to go to Kincaid, Harty or second-year receiver Khalil Shakir

Best Answer

Deonte Harty, Khalil Shakir, Justin Shorter and Trent Sherfield are competent depth at pass-catcher, but am I crazy that we more or less know the Bills’ receiving alignment to start the season? Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis on the outside, Dalton Kincaid in the slot, Dawson Knox as the in-line tight end. If those four stay healthy and that’s not the dominant alignment, I’ll be shocked. 

That doesn’t mean Kincaid is a surefire fantasy contributor right away. Even if he’s a tight end in name only and is actually a wide receiver … the NFL’s hard. He’s got development to do. He’s only six months younger than Gabe Davis, who is entering his fourth NFL season. Kincaid is TE15 in ADP right now, TE16 in our FTN Fantasy rankings. That’s … fine. He’s got more upside than Cole Kmet, Tyler Higbee, Greg Dulcich around him, but a lower floor. If you want to swing for the fences, a little reach on Kincaid is fine. Just don’t get into a situation where you have to rely on him.

55. Can James Cook Break Through the ‘Bills Backs Barrier’?

The Issue

• Devin Singletary is in Houston now
• The Bills signed Damien Harris and Latavius Murray and still have Nyheim Hines
• Min. 50 carries last year, Cook was the No. 3 RB at 5.7 yards per carry, behind Rashaad Penny (6.1) and Breece Hall (5.8)

Best Answer

What is the “Bills Backs Barrier?” you may ask. Well, Josh Allen became the starter in Buffalo in 2018. In five years since, Bills running backs are 31^st in PPR points (1,534.3, ahead of only Houston) and a distant last in RB touches (1,917, Jags are 31^st at 1,978, the only other team under 2,000):

Right away, we would either need the Bills to wholesale change how they use running backs and/or James Cook to be the most efficient running back in the league to be a fantasy starter. To be fair, his ADP is only RB30, but even that is a tough sell once you look at the fact that the Bills made specific moves this offseason to bring in battering-ram options in Harris and Murray who could send Cook to the sidelines near the end zone. What I’m saying is, don’t count on Cook. 

Miami Dolphins

If you look at the Wikipedia entry for a team’s season-by-season history, most of them have a column for awards. MVP, Offensive Rookie of the Year, whatever. The Dolphins’ page has that column. And it is a sad column, y’all. Since Tim Bowens won Defensive Player of the Year and Dan Marino won Comeback Player of the Year in the 1994 season, the Dolphins have:

• Walter Payton Man of the Year: Dan Marino, 1998
• Pro Bowl MVP: Ricky Williams, 2002
• Defensive Player of the Year: Jason Taylor, 2006 (a good on-field one!)
• Walter Payton Man of the Year: Jason Taylor, 2007
• Comeback Player of the Year: Chad Pennington, 2008
• Pro Bowl MVP: Brandon Marshall, 2011

That’s 28 seasons, six awards, and four of them were either for off-field performance or Pro Bowl performance. The Dolphins are a good franchise, but the award history is awful. That said, oh man, there are OPOY possibilities in 2023.

56. How the Hell Should We Handle This Backfield?

The Issue

• All four of Miami’s 2023 running backs (Jeff Wilson, Raheem Mostert, Myles Gaskin, Salvon Ahmed) were free agents this offseason; all four re-signed
• The Dolphins drafted De’Von Achane in the third round in April
• Per DraftKings Sportsbook, the Dolphins are the second favorite (+200) to sign free agent RB Dalvin Cook

Best Answer

Let’s set Cook over to the side for a moment. Right now, fantasy drafters are on the hot new thing, taking Achane at RB39 compared to Mostert at RB55 and Wilson at RB57 (we can ignore Gaskin and Ahmed). And yes, Achane has the benefit of being absurdly fast in an offense that loves everything absurdly fast. But he is also very small, and Wilson and (especially) Mostert are also very fast, and also the Dolphins last year ran on only 38.0% of their plays, the seventh-lowest rate in the league. Even Achane at RB39 is too high, even if he’s fast and exciting and little and fun.

And that’s before considering Cook, who is currently RB29 by ADP despite having no team. I don’t hate that ADP almost no matter where he lands (though news Friday certainly clouds any potential landing spot). But if it’s in Miami, my answer to how to handle this backfield is that gif from Big Bang Theory where Sheldon flings his papers in the air in frustration.

57. Do We Want Any Pass-Catcher Here Not Names Tyreek or Jaylen?

The Issue

• Tyreek Hill had 170 targets in 2022, Jaylen Waddle had 117, Trent Sherfield was third with 52
• No other Dolphins receiver in 2022 last year had more than 18 targets
• Sherfield (Buffalo) and TE Mike Gesicki (51 targets, now in New England) are gone now

Best Answer

The Dolphins offset the departures of Sherfield and Gesicki by signing Chosen Anderson and Braxton Berrios. Anderson … is not someone I’m worried about. He had a big 2020, which led to a lot of 2021 targets that he did nothing with, which led to a 2022 where his greatest virtue was changing his name as we knew it twice (Robby to Robbie, then Robbie to Chosen). But Berrios intrigues me. The Dolphins’ leaders in slot snaps last year were Hill (239), Sherfield (215) and Gesicki (201), With Waddle’s 137 the only other Dolphin over 66 slot snaps. Berrios is a pure slot guy. With Sherfield and Gesicki cleared out, Berrios can line up in the slot in three-WR sets, letting Hill and Waddle stay outside. That’s comfortably the Dolphins’ best formation, and while Hill and Waddle will of course continue to dominate targets, it does explain why in our Dolphins Sleepers, Busts & Bold Predictions, I said Berrios will outscore all Dolphins RBs, and why he’s one of my favorite end-of-draft sleepers in 2023.

58. How High Is Tua’s Ceiling?

The Issue

• Four top-four weekly fantasy finishes in 2022
• 18.4 fantasy points per game (QB9); 20.2 if you remove games he suffered a concussion (QB6)
• Led the league in TD% (6.3%), yards per attempt (8.9), passer rating (105.5)

Best Answer

We know Tua Tagovailoa’s floor: He gets a concussion in Week 1 (or the preseason) and never plays football again. That’s obviously a huge risk, and not one worth underplaying, because we all saw what he looked like on the field after that concussion in Cincinnati. Every football player is a concussion risk; Tua is arguably the biggest. But ceiling? We saw his weekly ceiling last year (especially in his 469-yard, 6-TD Week 2), and now he’s entering his first year with the same offensive coordinator as the year before, under Mike McDaniel and Frank Smith. Tua doesn’t run (307 yards in three years), but among quarterbacks who don’t do much on the ground, his ceiling is the highest. He’s QB11 in ADP — I’d be fine taking him 2-3 spots higher than that, with the only (admittedly large) caveat that if I’m taking Tua, I’m taking a second quarterback later as a safety valve.

New England Patriots

Obviously this is silly, but I specialize in silly observations, so: Since realignment in 2002, the Patriots and Steelers are the only teams that haven’t finished in last place in their division even once. Right now, as we head toward the 2023 season, both are projected for last-place finishes by DraftKings Sportsbook. It won’t lead SportsCenter or trend on Twitter, but I’m fascinated to monitor that as 2023 goes on.

59. Is It Rhamondre StevenSZN?

The Issue

• Stevenson was ninth among running backs in scrimmage yards in 2022, RB7 in PPR
• Damien Harris is gone; James Robinson was signed but cut
• Ty Montgomery had 4 targets in Week 1 before injury cost him the rest of 2022
• Leonard Fournette is working out in New England?

Best Answer

Rhamondre Stevenson will be the Patriots’ RB1 in 2023 if he’s healthy, and that’s true regardless of any Leonard Fournette, Ezekiel Elliott, Dalvin Cook and/or Kareem Hunt rumors you might read. The team signing a veteran doesn’t even scare me that much; the “Patriots hate your fantasy team” thing has been overblown. What does scare me? Ty Montgomery, if you can believe it. I’m not expecting Montgomery to do that much, but what I do foresee is him being the James White/Dion Lewis-ian pass-catching back that has worked so well for the team in the past. It was a tiny sample, but it was extremely clear that’s what the team envisioned out of Montgomery last year before injury, and he’s still on the roster for a reason. Montgomery will get 250 carries in 2023 if he stays healthy. I’m pretty sure of that. But I also think he won’t sniff the 88 targets he had last year, and that’s going to hurt him in PPR.

60. What Is JuJu’s Value at This Point?

The Issue

• Smith-Schuster had career highs in targets (166), receptions (111) and yards (1,426) with Pittsburgh in 2018
• Hasn’t had 1,426 yards in any two consecutive seasons combined since
• Replaces Jakobi Meyers in Patriots offense

Best Answer

Last year, Jakobi Meyers had 67 receptions on 96 targets for 804 yards in this offense. JuJu Smith-Schuster’s projection in our FTN Fantasy projections? 79.8 receptions on 108.6 targets for 830.8 yards. This more or less backs up my oft-repeated stance this offseason that the Patriots could have chosen to keep their starter home this offseason, or they could have bought a McMansion in a gated community, and instead of either of those, they powerwashed the siding, screened in their porch and called it an upgrade. (This metaphor also applies for the Jonnu Smith–Mike Gesicki swap.) JuJu’s better than Meyers. He’s not much better than Meyers. Meyers was a fantasy darling not because he was great (best career finish of WR29) but because he was good enough, on a famous team, coming out of nowhere as a UDFA. Thankfully, the drafting community seems to agree, with JuJu the WR56 in ADP right now (the highest Patriot).

61. Are We in for 2021 Mac Jones or 2022 Mac Jones?

The Issue

• 2021: 67.6% completion percentage, 22 TDs against 13 interceptions, 7.3 yards per attempt, 78.9 PFF overall grade
• 2022: 65.2% completion percentage, 14 TDs against 11 interceptions, 6.8 yards per attempt, 67.5 PFF overall grade
• Patriots offensive coordinator, 2021: Josh McDaniels (an actual offensive coordinator)
• Patriots offensive coordinator, 2022: Matt Patricia/Joe Judge (not actual offensive coordinators)
• Patriots offensive coordinator, 2023: Bill O’Brien (an actual offensive coordinator)

Best Answer

Mac Jones wasn’t actually that different in 2022 than he was in 2021. Much of his reputation comes from expectation — he was the forgotten man in the 2021 QB class, only to be the top fantasy scorer of the group (called it!), and that commands attention. Last year, he was supposed to build on that success, and instead of struggled, got hurt, saw Bailey Zappe have some moments. Sure, he was worse, but look at those numbers — touchdowns aside, he wasn’t much worse. Now, the Patriots have a functional OC in O’Brien, and while I’m not rostering Jones in fantasy, I have no issue thinking he’ll settle in as a third(-ish)-tier NFL starter who does enough for his weapons to produce in fantasy.

New York Jets

(I’m not rooting for injury, I would never root for injury, I can say something would be funny without saying I want it to happen.) The single funniest thing that could happen this preseason is an injury to Aaron Rodgers that costs him a chunk of the season. Going from the Jets players spending all offseason writing love letters to this dude, to them celebrating his arrival, to them having to give platitudinous interviews about how “Yeah, it sucks, but we’re all in with Zach Wilson, he can be that dude”? No I don’t want it to happen, because injuries are terrible, but you have to admit it would be hilarious to watch them try.

62. Welcome, Aaron Rodgers! What Are You?

The Issue

If we just assume full seasons (so not 2013 or 2017, when he got hurt), Aaron Rodgers last year had:

• His lowest yardage (3,695) since becoming a starter
• His most interceptions (12) since his first year as a starter in 2008
• His lowest yards per attempt (6.8) since 2015
• His lowest passer rating (91.1) ever
• His worst overall PFF grade (77.5) since 2015
• Oh, and the dude turns 40 in December

(200 points: QB21 in 2022; Age as of Dec. 31 in given season)

Best Answer

That bulleted list seems very pessimistic, but of course, it’s because most anything would look bad against the bar set by the back-to-back (and four-time total) MVP. But that’s kind of the point — a guy has to be exceptional to be good in his late 30s, and if Rodgers is just ordinary but with a 39-/40-year-old body, especially behind our 20^th-ranked offensive line as opposed to the annual top-10 unit he had in Green Bay, he scares me. The community is drafting him as QB17, while our FTN Fantasy rankings have him as QB14. Chalk one up to the wisdom of the crowd, as far as I’m concerned.

(A small note that doesn’t mean much but I found interesting: In each of his first 14 years as a starter, Rodgers had at least one pass play of 65-plus yards — 70-plus in 12 of 14 years. Last year, though, his longest pass play was 58 yards. That’s an effect, not a symptom, but it’s interesting.)

63. Who Is the WR2, and Do We Care?

The Issue

Behind Garrett Wilson, the contenders:

• Allen Lazard: Rodgers’ buddy, career highs in targets (100), receptions (60), yards (788) last year
• Corey Davis: WR30 in 2020, missed 12 games in first two years in New York
• Mecole Hardman: Only non-Rodgers buddy signed this offseason, stupid fast, never reached 700 yards with Patrick Mahomes as his quarterback
• Randall Cobb: Rodgers’ other buddy, 33 in August, hasn’t had 500-plus yards since 2019 or scored more than 5 TDs since 2015

Best Answer

Corey Davis was a rumored cut so often this offseason that until he’s on the field in Week 1, I’m not sure I buy that he’ll be there (I’m not sure how convinced I’ll be even then). Hardman is exciting, but his yards per route run has dropped every year of his career (1.49 in 2022), so I’m scared. Cobb might be capital-D done, but at the least it’s lower case. That leaves Lazard, who was brought over specifically to entice Rodgers. Do we care? Eh, a little, but only as depth. But where Lazard concerns me is in the effect he might have on Garrett Wilson (ooo, a little bait-and-switch, you thought I was talking WR2 and I’m on the WR1). Wilson had 19 targets inside the 20 last year and caught 5 of them. Lazard, who has Rodgers’ trust, had 17 and caught 9. If Rodgers is down close, will he look to his buddy who has had more success on those targets, or to the talented young guy? It’s a genuine question, but the fact that we have to consider it gives me at least a little pause on Wilson at his current exorbitant WR9 ADP.

64. So Are We Buying Breece Hall Being Ready?

The Issue

• Saquon Barkley: 16.7 carries per game season before torn ACL, 12.5 in first year back, 18.4 in second
• Dalvin Cook: 18.5 carries per game season of torn ACL, 12.1 in first year back, 17.9 in second
• Jamal Lewis: 19.3 carries per game season before torn ACL, 19.3 in first year back, 24.2 in second (RB usage used to be wild)
• Breece Hall: 11.4 carries per game season before torn ACL

Best Answer

Adrian Peterson is the poster boy for returning from a torn ACL like nothing happened (and his happened in Week 15 the season before; that’s absurd), but for every Peterson, there are a dozen backs who don’t get all the way back for a full season. Look at the J.K. Dobbins discourse of a year ago. So yeah, Breece Hall is back working with the Jets and running fast in a straight line. And maybe he’ll be Peterson-esque and play from Week 1 like the wrecking ball he was before his injury last year. But history as a rule tells us that he won’t actually be write-it-in-italics Breece Hall until 2024. Yet he’s RB11 in drafts? That feels like a draft pick that says he has to be back, and I never want my injured player to have to be back.