NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Welcome to Sleepers, Busts and Bold Predictions for the 2023 fantasy football season. All summer, our analysts, two at a time, will preview all 32 NFL teams for the upcoming season. We’ll pick a pair of sleepers, a pair of busts and a pair of bold predictions. Sometimes they’ll be the same pick! Sometimes they will directly disagree! And that’s fine. Today: The Miami Dolphins.
Below, Daniel Kelley and Jeremy Popielarz tackle the Dolphins, starting with their picks in “The Answers,” then expanding on their picks in “The Explanation.”
2023 Sleepers, Busts & Bold Predictions: Miami Dolphins
The Answers
Favorite Sleeper
Kelley: Tua Tagovailoa
Popielarz: Jeff Wilson
Biggest Bust
Kelley: De’Von Achane
Popielarz: De’Von Achane
Bold Prediction
Kelley: 3 Different Miami Receivers Outscore All Miami RBs/TEs
Popielarz: Jaylen Waddle Outscores Tyreek Hill in PPR
The Explanations
Sleepers
Kelley: Tua Tagovailoa
Tua Tagovailoa averaged 18.4 fantasy points per game, ninth among quarterbacks. Take out Week 4 (when he left in the first half with a concussion) and Week 16 (when he played the whole game but basically everyone assumes he was concussed in the second half, leading to a 3-interception disaster), and that average climbs to 20.2, sixth best, a hair behind Lamar Jackson. He had four top-four weekly finishes, including a QB1-QB4-QB3 run in Weeks 8-10. He had at least 3 touchdown passes four times in his 13 games, 30.8% of his games — only Patrick Mahomes (47.1%), Joe Burrow (37.5%), Josh Allen (37.5%) and Dak Prescott (33.3%) had a higher percentage.
Obviously, the biggest question about Tua in 2023 is health. Dude might be done forever if he gets another concussion, and at the least you’d have to expect an extended absence. There’s no way to dance around it; it’s a real and unavoidable concern. But we all know the reality of the quarterback position in fantasy these days is that the floors are higher than ever. If you draft Patrick Mahomes, you aren’t drafting a backup quarterback. If you draft Tua, you need to. But the good news in that is that the backup is going to have a high enough floor that it will be worth the ceiling Tua offers. If Tua plays all 17 games, he’s a top-six quarterbacks. If he plays half the year, Tua plus a high-floor backup should still be a comfortable QB1.
Popielarz: Jeff Wilson
With how consolidated the touches are within this Dolphins offense, it is hard to pinpoint a sleeper at all, but I landed on Jeff Wilson. Wilson emerged as a key piece of the Dolphins rushing attack down the stretch last year. In games Wilson and Raheem Mostert were both active for Miami, Wilson averaged 10.1 carries and 50.4 yards on the ground, along with 1.6 receptions on 3.0 targets for 11.6 yards, and he scored 4 total touchdowns. That was good for 11.2 PPR points per game. That was similar to Mostert’s averages (9.0 carries, 43.3 rushing yards, 2.4 receptions on 2.9 targets, 12.1 receiving yards, 3 total touchdowns, 10.5 PPR points), with Wilson holding the slight advantage. And with Mostert now 31, I am giving the edge to the younger Wilson for production out of this backfield. This obviously is contingent on the Dolphins now landing Dalvin Cook, but with a healthy offense and in Mike McDaniel’s second season calling plays, I expect this run game to be a touch more potent in 2023.
Busts
Kelley: De’Von Achane
Let’s be honest here that it’s really hard to come up with a bust for the Dolphins in 2023. Given that I’m in on Tua Tagovailoa, I more or less have to be in on Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, and with those names out … there really isn’t anyone left. But right now, De’Von Achane is the first running back off the board in the Dolphins backfield. It’s only RB39 by ADP, but that’s a good bit ahead of Raheem Mostert (RB51) and Jeff Wilson (RB57). And there’s some logic to that as a speed-demon bench option who could have a handful of breakaway runs this year. So in that sense, I don’t hate it. But if I were placing bets on who will lead the Dolphins in carries (or at least carries per game) this year, the undersized Achane (5-foot-8, 185 pounds) is behind both Mostert and Wilson, and I wouldn’t even be shocked if Salvon Ahmed and/or Myles Gaskin tops him as well.
And all of that ignores the possibility of Dalvin Cook landing in Miami, which is the hottest rumor going right now. Achane is fine as a late pick if you want a long shot for upside, but if you’re thinking of drafting him as a rookie breakout in this offense, I’ll pass.
Popielarz: De’Von Achane
De’Von Achane may be the flashy new toy in Miami, but we have to acknowledge that the running back position within this offense has been far from highly productive for fantasy. Last season, neither Jeff Wilson nor Raheem Mostert was a consistent fantasy asset. They split a lot of the workload (Mostert saw 49% of the team carries in games he was active, Wilson saw 44% when he was). Now add in Achane, who is built to fit this perimeter scheme with his speed and vision, and it feels like we are set for a three-way split (and that all assumes Dalvin Cook doesn’t land here). I do think Achane will have a role in this offense, but I don’t think it will have much fantasy relevance. Achane’s ADP is not crazy at the moment, but it is still ahead of Wilson and Mostert who I think are likely the main focuses in this run attack.
Bold Predictions
Kelley: 3 Different Miami Receivers Outscore All Miami RBs/TEs
You don’t need me to address the ceilings of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle in 2023; either or both could not only outscore all Miami running backs, they could outscore almost any running back in the league. But give me Braxton Berrios to top every non-WR Miami skill player as well. Part of that is the lack of ceiling at the other positions — Mike Gesicki’s departure leaves Durham Smythe/Eric Saubert as the Dolphins’ top two tight ends, with neither offering much for fantasy, and the mishmash in the backfield means there’s a good chance no single running back in Miami puts up fantasy-starter numbers.
Now, Berrios. Berrios signed with Miami this offseason after spending the last four years with the Jets. He was the only real offseason addition to offset the departures of Gesicki and WR Trent Sherfield. Those two accounted for a combined 448 slot routes and 51 slot targets. Hill and Waddle accounted for another 415 snaps and 108 targets. Some large quantity of that work will now go to Berrios. And Berrios is also a versatile weapon who should get some carries out of the backfield. He’s not a fantasy starter in 2023, but give me his fantasy point total over that of any running back or tight end in Miami.
Popielarz: Jaylen Waddle Outscores Tyreek Hill in PPR
Entering his third year, Jaylen Waddle is still improving after setting rookie records. He did see fewer targets in 2022 due to the addition of Tyreek Hill but still managed a top-10 fantasy finish. This season, I think we will see Waddle’s targets climb some from his 6.9 per game last year and get closer to the 8.8 he saw as a rookie in 2021. These targets will have to come from somewhere, and that will be Hill’s 10.0 per game last year. Hill is 29, and it’s only a matter of time before Father Time catches up with him. I’m not predicting a huge dropoff, but a slight decline shouldn’t be a surprise. Waddle was the more explosive player last year, averaging 18.1 yards per reception compared to 14.4 for Hill. With a few extra targets per game and a fully healthy year out of Tua Tagovailoa, I expect Waddle to outproduce Hill this season in PPR.
