FTN NBA Betting Show: November 6th
Alex Christenson
Prop God
Dane Martinez
The late-season NBA DFS slates grind on as games get more and more important for a handful of teams around the NBA and the schedule continues to tighten up, with many teams on one leg of a back-to-back on any given slate.
As always, the game-by-game breakdown will provide a brief overview of each and every game on the slate, highlighting players that stand out. This doesn’t, however, mean that every player will be touched on. If a player is excluded from the breakdown, that simply means that they didn’t stand out as one that necessarily needs to be in your player pool. Again, this is the first look. Things will change given news throughout the day, but I will do my best to prime you for all of the hypotheticals that we can forecast.
Vegas data at the time of writing listed is the consensus odds from the FTN NBA Odds Tracker.
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Suns at Cavaliers preview
PHO -12.5, total: 218.5
While there are only seven games on the main slate, it’s pretty easy to see why this game can be one that gets written off, as the total is low and the spread is massive. This is one of the best defensive teams in the league against one of the worst offensive teams, making it a brutal spot for DFS prospects.
The Cavs are a team on this slate that I have absolutely no interest in given the matchup. If you’re hellbent on rostering someone from this team, Collin Sexton would be the best bet with Darius Garland out. He sees a 2.78% jump in usage rate with Garland out, averaging over 41 fantasy points in this scenario. Outside of Sexton, both Jarrett Allen and Kevin Love would be the only two I would consider.
The Suns step into an amazing spot here, but with the possibility that this game gets out of hand, they make for risky investments. Given how bad the Cavs’ defense is in transition, Chris Paul, Mikal Bridges, Cameron Johnson and Devin Booker should all see nice boosts. Deandre Ayton has a nice ceiling here, but the minutes risk given the potential blowout is a major obstacle that could get in the way.
Hornets at Pistons preview
CHA -7, total: 215.5
The Pistons are one of the aforementioned teams that come into this game on the second leg of a back-to-back and with Mason Plumlee, Cory Joseph and Jerami Grant resting Monday, they should be expected to return Tuesday. If that becomes the case, Plumlee looks like an incredibly strong play at $6,100 on DraftKings. He’s seen at least 29 minutes in two of his last three games, averaging 15.0 points, 18.5 rebounds, 6.0 assists, and one block per game across those contests. While there’s some volatility surrounding his playing time, his ceiling is astronomical relative to his price. Grant and Joseph would also be viable plays here, but I want to limit my exposure to Detroit as a whole with the rotation back.
If on the off chance the trio above sits out again, we can easily default back to Isaiah Stewart, Saddiq Bey and the trio of guards (Hamidou Diallo, Frank Jackson, Killian Hayes).
This is an extremely enticing spot for the Hornets, and it starts with LaMelo Ball. He’s seen 28 and 30 minutes in his two games since returning from injury, averaging 12.5 points, 6.5 assists, 6.5 rebounds and 4.0 stocks per game. With his workload sure to ramp up as well as his efficiency, his $7,100 price tag feels like a bargain. His return has also capped the ceilings of Terry Rozier, P.J. Washington and Miles Bridges a bit, but all three have seen their prices come down to a point that makes them viable in GPPs. Washington in particular is a viable mid-tier target in cash games as well.
Malik Monk is also an interesting option, as he’s averaged 24.5 minutes per game since his return from injury. He should continue to be a volume-dependent, high-usage player when he’s on the court and with Devonte' Graham out again, his $4,300 tag is a bit too cheap for his role off the bench.
Nets at Bucks preview
MIL -1.5, total: 242
If you missed the last game between these two juggernauts Sunday, then let me jog your memory. There were 231 total points, with the Bucks narrowly coming away with a three-point win. Both Kevin Durant and Giannis Antetokounmpo topped 40 raw points, while four other players scored at least 17 raw points. The point: There is a ton of fantasy appeal.
I’ll go right back to the well with Antetokounmpo here, as we always do with a tight spread and high total. His 49 points came in 36 minutes and on 36 total shots and while the Nets will surely attempt to scheme him out of this game, that’s virtually impossible. He’s the top spend-up on the entire slate. If not playing Giannis, this is 100% a spot where I would want to hedge with Khris Middleton or Jrue Holiday. Both are viable, with my lean being Middleton. This is also a matchup where I’ll go right back to Brook Lopez, who played only 26 minutes, but had one of his six-block ceiling games. This is a reasonable outcome given how much Brooklyn attacks the rim and he should once again match the minutes of DeAndre Jordan. He’s a great spend-down option in GPPs.
For the Nets, it’s going to be hard to ignore both Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant once again. Somehow, both are priced below $10,000 and somehow, Durant is the cheaper option. At this point, he’s going to continue to be one of the chalkiest players on the slate but at $9,300, it’s completely warranted. He fits nicely next to Antetokounmpo in a lineup and makes for an elite play. Irving is an elite pivot off the Durant ownership with just as much upside.
As far as the ancillary pieces go, Jeff Green is seeing the most minutes (30 or more in seven of his last eight games) and is still reasonably priced ($5,000 on DraftKings), while Landry Shamet continues to provide an offensive spark in place of the absent James Harden. He’s played at least 27 minutes in five consecutive games, scoring 14 or more points in three of those five. His $4,200 price tag is a reasonable ask here and gives you cheap exposure to this game. Joe Harris is an ideal tournament target based on the matchup, as the Bucks are allowing the third-most three-point attempts per game in the NBA (38.7).
Mavericks at Heat preview
MIA -4, total: 215.5
Both teams in this game are in the thick of the playoff hunt, with both fighting to avoid the play-in tournaments and looking to win as much as possible. While there are a ton of implications on the line in this game, the overall environment isn’t the greatest for DFS.
Luka Doncic should continue to do whatever he can to will the Mavericks to victory, but in a game where he should see a ton of Jimmy Butler in a slower-paced game, it’s easy to default to Giannis as a spend-up with Luka operating as a tournament pivot (which, transparently, is still something I wouldn’t do unless running 150 lineups). The fact that Kristaps Porzingis is doubtful here as well doesn’t necessarily shoot Doncic’s stock through the roof either. While his usage rate climbs, we saw what happened last time when Porzingis was ruled out against a stout defensive team (Lakers). They sold out to stop Doncic, doubling him behind the three-point arc and forcing him into turnovers and difficult passes. This is a major concern for this game as well given the Heat’s defensive abilities.
Porzingis’ absence also means more shots for Tim Hardaway. If Doncic is indeed struggling with Butler, he could be relied upon more often with his 25.58% usage rate with Porzingis off the court. Maxi Kleber should see an extended run if active and if he’s out, we could get more Dorian Finney-Smith, Dwight Powell, and potentially, Boban Marjanovic. All are underwhelming options unless Marjanovic draws the start. Then, it’s go time.
While Porzingis’ absence could certainly open a bit of breathing room in the paint, the Mavericks have been an above-average defensive unit. Because of this, I plan to limit my Heat exposure to the usual pairing in Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler, as well as Kendrick Nunn. The former two provide some of the safest floors on the slate and if choosing between the two, Butler is my lean. Nunn should continue to see a ton of minutes with Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo out and he’s scored at least 18 raw points in five straight games.
Warriors at Pelicans preview
NOP -1.5, total: 234.5
We saw this same matchup a mere 24 hours ago, resulting in the Warriors handling the Pelicans from start to finish. While it’s difficult to beat the same team twice in a row, let alone in 24 hours, this should still be a close game throughout.
Stephen Curry remains an elite option, as he dropped 41 points Monday and has now topped 40 three times over his last 10 games while scoring at least 30 raw points in eight of his last 10. At $10,400, he’s my second favorite spend-up behind Antetokounmpo Tuesday. Outside of Curry, the only two Warriors that I have an interest in are Draymond Green and Kent Bazemore. Green continues to operate as the point guard in this offense from the sense of a facilitator, while Bazemore has filled in seamlessly while Kelly Oubre has struggled with injuries. If looking for value, Juan Toscano-Anderson is my favorite option.
For the Pelicans, Steven Adams sat out for his third consecutive game Monday and could very well miss another on Tuesday. While Willy Hernangomez was a bit disappointing Monday, the boosts he receives without Adams are no joke. In seven games without him this season, he’s averaged over 28 DraftKings points per game and 29 FanDuel points per game, more than a 10-point jump over games when Adams is active.
Zion Williamson is the obvious choice if spending up on this team, as the pace-up spot against a weak interior is a recipe for success with his play style. Both Brandon Ingram and Lonzo Ball are viable as well, with Ball being the preferred option given his recent form and ability to correlate well with Williamson.
Kings at Thunder preview
SAC -5, total: 228.5
Think of the NBA Finals. Now, think of whatever the exact opposite would be. Not the two best teams,=; arguably the two worst. The cellar-dwellers, the toilet bowl, you name it, this is it.
The crazy thing about this game is that as bad as these teams are, the porous defenses open up opportunities for fantasy production. On the Sacramento side, it’s going to be hard to get away from Delon Wright. With both De'Aaron Fox and Tyrese Haliburton out, he should command the lion’s share of the minutes and has shown the ability to accumulate production in just about every statistical category. Buddy Hield sees a 3.27% jump in usage rate with these two off the court, so it’s bound to go up even more in a game where they’re both inactive. The one concern is how much he’ll be guarded by Luguentz Dort. Still, he’s worth a tournament flier.
Marvin Bagley is the other piece that I want exposure to here. Not only do the two guards being out help him from a volume standpoint, but Harrison Barnes is doubtful and Chimezie Metu is questionable, paving the way for potentially massive minutes. He posted 23 points and nine boards in 34 minutes last game and at $5,000, he’s my favorite overall value option of the slate.
The pace of this game should obviously shift without the two Kings’ guards, but the defense remains the same — bad. Because of this, Dort has a ton of tournament appeal, shooting at least 12 times in nine of his last 10 games while shooting at least eight threes in four of his last five. Outside of Dort, Darius Bazley is the best option for the Thunder, with Theo Maledon being a large-field GPP option as the only other Thunder player worth roster.
Raptors at Clippers preview
LAC -9.5, total: 221
The slew of Raptors’ injuries makes this a difficult game to target, as it tips off a whopping two hours later than the next closest game on the slate. As it stands, both OG Anunoby and Gary Trent are doubtful to play, while Fred VanVleet’s status is still up in the air after he missed Sunday with a hip ailment. If VanVleet is unable to suit up, it’ll be difficult to get away from Kyle Lowry, as he’s seen a 2.87% jump in usage rate and a 7.31-point jump in DK points per game across the seven games without the other two guards. This would also open more room for Pascal Siakam to produce. Even if VanVleet is in, the absence of Anunoby alone should open more rebounding chances in the frontcourt for him. Given his price, he’s best suited for GPPs, but he’s flashed a 70-point ceiling, so he certainly should not be written off.
Khem Birch is the other starter worth considering, as $5,300 is far from indicative of his effectiveness while Chris Boucher’s been out, posting at least 31 DK points in four of his last five games. In terms of value, Malachi Flynn and DeAndre' Bembry would be the two preferences, with Bembry (oddly enough), being the preferred option with Anunoby out. He’s a better bet for minutes, which in terms of value plays, is the biggest factor.
The Clippers should have no problem exploiting this Raptors’ team regardless of whether VanVleet is able to suit up, especially with both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George healthy. Because they’re both active, however, it’s hard to endorse either in anything more than large-field GPPs given how they split production and how they compare to other spend-ups on the slate.
If you want to play the gamescript and predict a blowout if VanVleet misses, Terance Mann would be a solid large-field tournament dart assuming he gets garbage-time run.
