Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
We’ve officially reached the final week of the regular season. Monday kicks finale-week off with a six-game slate as the rest of the week is a rather even distribution of games until Sunday, where every team in the league will be in action.
As always, the game-by-game breakdown will provide a brief overview of each and every game on the slate, highlighting players that stand out. This doesn’t, however, mean that every player will be touched on. If a player is excluded from the breakdown, that simply means that they didn’t stand out as one that necessarily needs to be in your player pool. Again, this is the first look. Things will change given news throughout the day, but I will do my best to prime you for all of the hypotheticals that we can forecast.
Vegas data at the time of writing listed is the consensus odds from the FTN NBA Odds Tracker.
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Wizards at Hawks preview
ATL -7.5, total: 237.5
Whoever DraftKings put in charge of their pricing algorithm needs to be fired. Russell Westbrook has now topped 80 DraftKings points on three separate occasions not this season, but over his last four games alone. I can’t personally recall a hotter stretch from a DFS production standpoint and what happens to his price? It drops $100. There is no analysis needed here. He’s in red-hot form and is one triple-double away from becoming the all-time leader. He should be the first button you click in your lineup.
To make matters even more enticing, Bradley Beal is out for the Wizards, giving an obvious bump to Westbrook, but also Rui Hachimura. In seven games without Beal this season, Hachimura sees a 5.86% increase in usage rate while averaging over 4.2 more DraftKings points per game. At under $5,000, he’s an elite value option. Raul Neto should also pick up the majority of the vacated minutes, making him an intriguing value option under $5,000 as well. As for the rest of the Wizards, Davis Bertans is the only one I’d be comfortable using.
The absence of Beal doesn’t do a ton to change this matchup for the Hawks, as it’s an exploitable one regardless. One of the best game-environments stacks on this slate consists of running Trae Young as a run-back for Russell Westbrook. Young is $1,700 cheaper than Westbrook and has topped 50 DK points in two of his last four games. He also posted 41 points last time he played the Wizards.
Outside of Young, Clint Capela at $8,400 is my favorite option, as the center position has been a spot of attack against the Wizards not only this season but for seasons’ past as well. His floor game last time out should drive his ownership down as well. Bogdan Bogdanovic would be my third priority here, as he has the stat-stuffing ability that should be amplified in this game environment, while John Collins is the other player to consider. He fits a GPP mold given the lack of resistance from the Wizards in the paint, but his minutes and production are too lucrative to trust in anything more than large-field tournaments. Both Kevin Huerter and Danilo Gallinari carry upside for under $5,000 in tournaments, but they’re far from core plays. They both, however, are elite ways to get inexpensive exposure to this game.
Pacers at Cavaliers preview
IND -6.5, total: 229.5
Two more brutal defensive units follow up the first game of the evening and with such a tight spread, there should be a ton of fantasy production here.
The Pacers are a cut-and-dry team to decipher. If Malcolm Brogdon is out, Domantas Sabonis carries one of the highest ceilings on the slate while Caris LeVert and TJ McConnell become elite plays at their prices, especially against such a bad transition defense. Edmond Sumner would also be an elite value option at only $3,900 if Brogdon is ruled out. If Brogdon is in, he immediately slots in as a viable tournament play as long as he’s not facing a tight minutes’ restriction. Even if he’s in, Sumner would still be a viable value, while the prices on McConnell and LeVert would be a bit harder to stomach.
As bad as the Cavs’ defense has been, the Pacers have arguably been worse. While Cleveland is never a popular team to roster, this slate would be the slate to do it. Both Darius Garland and Cedi Osman are questionable and if they’re to miss this game, it’d be hard to ignore Collin Sexton for only $8,300. He’s topped 20 raw points in nine of his last 10 games and should be able to do whatever he wants against this defense while likely remaining an unpopular pick.
If Osman is forced to sit, this would only trickle more minutes to Isaac Okoro. While he’s been a rather unreliable per-minute producer for the majority of the season, he’s averaged a bit more (0.80 DKP/min) over the last week, making him a perfectly viable value if he’s going to be flirting with minutes in the upper-30s. Both Kevin Love and Jarrett Allen are also viable given the matchup. Allen should be able to feast on the glass with no Myles Turner, while Love should be able to exploit the defensive inabilities of Sabonis. Both are great mid-tier tournament targets.
Pelicans at Grizzlies preview
MEM -9.5, total: 225.5
The Pelicans come into this game on the second leg of a back-to-back and while all of a sudden they’re extremely decimated, they were able to welcome Nickeil Alexander-Walker back into the lineup on Sunday. While he only played 21 minutes, he was able to post 24.5 DKP and if given more opportunity to play on Monday, he would be a viable tournament option.
If Brandon Ingram is in, he obviously becomes an elite play without Zion Williamson. If he’s out, we can continue to look to both Lonzo Ball and Eric Bledsoe for production. Ball has posted two consecutive disappointing games, but his rate boosts are enough without Zion where I’m OK going back to the well. Bledsoe should be one of the popular plays here, as he’s coming off of a 52-DraftKings-point game on Sunday. Willy Hernangomez would be an elite play assuming Steven Adams is out once again, as the absence of Zion does wonders for his rebounding potential against a team that’s struggled to limit DFS production at the center position recently.
While this is a plus matchup for the Grizzlies, it’s hard for me to fully justify them here with just about the entire rotation healthy (minus Grayson Allen). Not only is the rotation healthy, but both Ja Morant and Jonas Valanciunas are priced up to points where I’d rather look elsewhere as opposed to stomaching their floors and inconsistencies in tournaments. They’re still worth a look in large-field formats, but in smaller single-entry contests, they’re easy to pass on.
Jaren Jackson Jr. is perhaps the Memphis player I have the most interest in. He moved into the starting lineup last game and played 26 minutes, tallying 17 shot attempts (10 from three), producing 20 points, four rebounds, four stocks and a pair of assists. The fouls continue to be an issue (five on Saturday), but if he can limit them, he has 35-minute upside with elite per-minute production as a ceiling. Both De'Anthony Melton and Desmond Bane are worth a look in large-field formats with Allen out, but neither has been a rather favorable option lately.
Bucks at Spurs preview
MIL -7.5, total: 233.5
With the Bucks still fighting to leapfrog the Nets in the standings, we can expect their big three to suit up as normal here. Because of this, Giannis Antetokounmpo is an elite spend-up option and has averaged 1.82 DraftKings points per minute since his injury on April 29. He’s still merely a pivot up top with Westbrook on the slate, but there are not many pivots as elite as Giannis.
Both Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton are viable here, but neither are musts if you are fading Giannis. Both are in great form, but it’s Holiday who I prefer if having to choose one. I also really like Donte DiVincenzo here, as he’s been much more assertive over his last trio of games, averaging 15.7 points, 8.3 rebounds and 3.3 assists in 27.6 minutes per game. He’s a great mid-tier option at $5,200.
I have very little interest in the Spurs here, as their rotation is hard enough to trust, let alone in a brutal matchup. Dejounte Murray has had a few floor games over his last five games, but $7,200 is just too cheap for a player who should be on the court for 35 minutes with his upside if this game stays close. DeMar DeRozan also feels too cheap, but my lean is Murray for less.
Lonnie Walker has quietly averaged 28.5 minutes per game over his last seven games, posting over 15 points per game in that span. While he’s rather one-dimensional with all of his production coming in the scoring department, the Bucks surrender enough threes where if his shot is falling, he could waltz into a ceiling game for only $4,200. For $1,000 more, Jakob Poeltl also offers upside for a low price, but this is a matchup where I’d reserve him for MME builds only.
Jazz at Warriors preview
UTA -3, total: 227
Both Donovan Mitchell and Mike Conley remain out for the Jazz, making this another spot to target one of the hottest shooters in the league, Bojan Bogdanovic. Over his last seven games, he’s averaged 28.1 points per game on 57.6% shooting from the field and a scorching 47.9% from deep. Given the pace-up spot here and brutal defense on the other side, this is a spot where we could see him go nuclear. He’s my favorite option on the Jazz. Joe Ingles and Rudy Gobert trail him on my priority list but are both worth consideration, as they carry high ceilings for their prices given the matchup. Ingles will obviously cost you much less, but his ceiling is also not that of Gobert. Jordan Clarkson is my final piece here, but given his one-dimensional nature (most of the time), I’m OK passing here. If looking for value in Utah, Georges Niang is your best bet.
On the flip side, the only piece that I have an interest in here is Stephen Curry, as his scoring stretch right now is even hotter than Bogdanovic’s. Over his last 10 games, Curry has averaged 34.2 points and should continue to run his point totals up as he looks to take home the scoring title.
Andrew Wiggins, Draymond Green and Juan Toscano-Anderson are the ancillary pieces who I would have in my pool, with Green being my favorite of the bunch in terms of upside, but Toscano-Anderson carries a ton of per-dollar appeal with Kelly Oubre still sidelined. Toscano-Anderson is also a blowout-proof player, so he provides a level of safety that the former two cannot necessarily claim.
Rockets at Blazers preview
POR -14, total: 239
The last game of the night should provide a ton of production, as these are two of the more brutal defenses in the Western Conference.
The Rockets remain short-handed, as all of the usuals remain out with Christian Wood and Kelly Olynyk questionable. Both missed the last game and if they do once again, Kenyon Martin Jr. becomes a core play at $6,200. While this is a $900 price increase relative to the last game, he’s topped 47 DraftKings points in three straight games, making this a massive bargain even with the price hike. He’s still viable if one of Olynyk or Wood plays, but he’d be a bit harder to stomach if both are active. Speaking of those two, if either is active, they immediately become elite tournament options.
In the backcourt, Jae'Sean Tate and Armoni Brooks should continue to shoulder most of the ball-handling responsibilities, making them both elite plays regardless of the status of the bigs. Anthony Lamb is another backcourt/wing player to keep an eye on, but he reminded us of his floor last game when he failed to crack double-digits in DraftKings points despite playing 32 minutes.
With the Blazers fighting for their play-in position (although it’s relatively safe), Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum both have to be considered elite options here. Lillard has topped 50 DK points in five of his last six games with the one game where he came up short being a 49-DK-point outing last game against the Spurs. With Lillard’s re-emergence, McCollum has seen his price dip below $8,000, making him an elite mid-tier pivot in a great game environment.
For $500 less than McCollum, you can get Blazers’ exposure via Jusuf Nurkic, who continues to be an elite per-minute producer, but the fact that he’s seen 23 or fewer minutes in three of his last four games is enough risk to consider limiting him to larger GPPs only.
