Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Friday 5/3)
Adam Strangis
We close out the work week with an 11-game DFS slate in the NBA that was severely impacted by Thursday’s trade deadline. Value should not be too difficult to come by on this slate, and there is an absolute ton to get into.
Every day, we take a look at the slate of games to find the key DFS plays and picks to build a successful lineup.
(Make sure to check out all of our other awesome NBA tools, including the Odds Tracker (above), the Prop Shop, and starting lineups page.)
Brooklyn Nets @ Detroit Pistons
BKN -5.5, total: 222
James Harden missed Wednesday’s game with a neck injury and is once again listed as questionable. With Brooklyn still without Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, Harden’s status is even more important. The Nets lost by 30 in their last game, as they rolled with a starring five of Tyler Johnson, Bruce Brown, Joe Harris, Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot and Jeff Green. However, Chris Chiozza was more productive off the bench, scoring 10 points to go along with 11 assists. He did, however, play nine minutes in the fourth quarter of a blowout, which makes you wonder how many minutes he’ll play in a competitive game. But it is still possible that he plays more minutes than someone like Johnson in this game. It’ll also be interesting to see how many minutes Blake Griffin plays after resting Wednesday. He played 19 minutes in his last game and now faces his former team. Obviously keep an eye on Harden’s status and if he plays, consider him one of the top plays of the slate once again.
For the Pistons, Delon Wright is no longer on the team, as he was dealt to Sacramento. Meanwhile, Dennis Smith is questionable to play with a back injury, which could leave this Detroit backcourt rather shorthanded for this game. With both guards off the floor over the last four weeks, Josh Jackson is sporting a healthy 26.4% usage rate, averaging just under a fantasy point per minute during that span. Wright leads this team in average minutes of possession per game (5.8), so his absence is clearly going to impact this basketball club. Hamidou Diallo is expected to be back in the lineup but he hasn’t played in 11 games, making it likely his minutes are limited. If they are and DSJ sits, Frank Jackson could become interesting at $4,100 on DraftKings. However, the safest options are Jackson, Jerami Grant and Mason Plumlee. During that aforementioned four-week stretch, Plumlee is sporting a solid 19.8% usage rate to go along with a massive 37% rebounding rate and team-high 18% assist rate. He’s collected double-digit rebounds in seven of his last 10 games, while converting 65% of his rebounding opportunities during that time frame. Plumlee is a strong source of assists at center and is facing a Brooklyn team that is coughing up the third-most assists per game to opposing centers on the season (4.26).
Boston Celtics @ Milwaukee Bucks
MIL -6, total: 232
These teams played the other night, with Giannis Antetokounmpo returning from a one-game absence. He finished with an underwhelming stat line for fantasy in 33 minutes, only attempting 11 shots. Despite the poor showing, Giannis is still very much in play, especially since he is under $11,000 on DK. However, with Antetokounmpo back in the lineup, it really takes the shine off the rest of this Milwaukee team for fantasy. Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton are fine plays at their respective price tags but are nowhere near priorities on an 11-game slate.
Things are more interesting in Boston right now. The Celtics traded for Evan Fournier Thursday, while moving Daniel Theis to Chicago. Fournier won’t make his Boston debut here and with Tristan Thompson still out of the lineup, this makes Robert Williams a very interesting GPP option at his elevated $6,400 price tag. Yes, that is a steep price to pay, but Williams has produced whenever he’s stepped on the floor this season. In fact, when both Theis and Thompson off the court on the year, Williams is sporting a massive 37% rebounding rate, while averaging an awesome 1.32 fantasy points per minute. Over his last eight games where he’s logged at least 19 minutes, Williams is averaging right around 33 fantasy points per game. He should get 25-plus minutes here. Meanwhile, both Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are very solid plays at their price tags and with Thompson and Theis sidelined, these two should see upticks in rebounding potential, while we know they are going to take 20-plus shot attempts.
Phoenix Suns @ Toronto Raptors
PHO -4.5, total: 223.5
The Raptors were very active during Thursday’s trade deadline, though Kyle Lowry wasn’t moved. Instead, it was Norman Powell, who is in the middle of a career season. Toronto dealt him to Portland in exchange for Gary Trent and Rodney Hood, though neither will make their Raptors debut here. With Powell gone, everyone gets a bump, as Powell is a relatively high-usage player. When he is off the floor this season, both Fred VanVleet and Pascal Siakam see usage bumps of nearly 3%, putting them at 26.7 and 28.4% usage rates in the split. This matchup with the Suns is nothing to write home about but Phoenix does surrender the most points per game off isolation in the league (9.2), while coughing up the third-most points per possession off the play type (1.03). Siakam, meanwhile, leads the Raptors in isolation points per game on the year (2.6), while sporting a healthy 14.6% frequency off the play type. And with Powell gone, OG Anunoby should enter the starting lineup and because the Raptors run their starters 35-plus minutes in close games, you have to like the minutes heading his way.
For the Suns, Chris Paul and Devin Booker feel like relatively safe plays at their price tags. The Raptors defense is nowhere close to what it once was and they rank 30th against 3-and-D players this season, while also ranking 21st against primary ball-handlers, per our advanced DvP tool. Outside of the two main players from this team, I actually don’t hate Jae Crowder at $4,800 in this spot. He’s playing around 28-31 minutes right now and faces a Toronto team that is coughing up the third-most points per game to spot-up shooters on the season (35.0). That could bode well for Crowder, who is averaging 6.1 spot-up points per game this year, good for the fifth-most in the NBA. And according to advanced DVP, the Raptors also rank 29th against shooters this season, which is one of Crowder’s archetypes.
Miami Heat @ Charlotte Hornets
MIA -2, total: 217.5
This is a game between the two worst defenses in the NBA at defending spot-up shooters. Charlotte is allowing a league-worst 37.9 spot-up points per game, while Miami is right behind them, coughing up 35.4 such points per game. The problem, however, is that neither team has a player that is in the top half of the league in spot-up scoring. One player who somewhat stands out is Devonte' Graham, who bounced back in his last game, scoring 21 points on 7-of-10 shooting. He will continue to start with LaMelo Ball out for the season and he is averaging 4.9 spot-up points per game, the most of any player from this game. He hasn’t reached 30 minutes in each of his last two games, but the last game was a blowout so if this game stays close, I expect him to at least reach that 30-minute mark. Meanwhile, we’ve seen P.J. Washington’s peripherals skyrocket over the last two games without Ball and when the rookie is off the floor this season, Washington is sporting a very strong 25% rebounding rate and modest 11% assist rate. Finally, I don’t really love Terry Rozier and Gordon Hayward at their elevated price tags in this spot.
Miami was without Jimmy Butler Thursday with an illness, while Goran Dragic sat out with a back injury. As a result, Tyler Herro finally had a ceiling game, scoring 49.5 fantasy points. Butler could return Friday, while Dragic has already been ruled out. If Butler does sit out again, however, feel free to go right back to Herro, who is posting a 27.5% usage rate with both players off the floor, while averaging just over a fantasy point per minute in the split. Herro initiated much of the offense in Miami’s last game, leading the team with nearly 70 touches. Meanwhile, Kendrick Nunn would be tough to pass on at $4,900 if Butler sits again. This is a spot where shooters can get hot, facing a zone-heavy Charlotte team that can give it up from three-point land. 39.6% of the points scored against the Hornets this season have come from beyond the arc, the third-highest mark in basketball. That could also bode well for Duncan Robinson, but his shot volume has been so inconsistent this season. Finally, you have to love Bam Adebayo here, regardless of Butler’s status. If he sits, Bam becomes an elite play, as he’s sporting a 27.5% usage rate, 29% rebounding rate and 20% assist rate with Butler and Dragic off the court. He faces a weak Hornets interior that is surrendering 16.74 rebounds per game to opposing centers on the year, the third-most in the league.
Portland Trail Blazers @ Orlando Magic
POR -11, total: 220
The Magic are perhaps the most interesting team on this slate after they traded away nearly half of their team at Thursday’s deadline. Nikola Vucevic, Aaron Gordon and Evan Fournier all play for other teams, as well as Al-Farouq Aminu and Gary Clark. Meanwhile, Terrence Ross is questionable to play in this game with a knee injury that has kept him out over the last five games. This is one of those unique situations where you can seemingly play whoever is active for the Magic, because they are going to be so, so shorthanded. Ross would be the top play, as he’s sporting an insane 38.5% usage rate in nearly 235 minutes with Vucevic, Gordon and Fournier off the court this season. The problem, however, is that DraftKings priced a lot of these players up ahead of this slate, as Ross is $7,500, James Ennis is $6,000 and Michael Carter-Williams is $6,600. The matchup is solid, facing a weak Portland defense. The Blazers are also allowing the sixth-most points per possession to shooters off screens (1.05), which bodes well for Ross, who is averaging the third-most points per game off screens (3.9). Keep an eye on who is available for the Magic here.
It looks like Portland is going to get Jusuf Nurkic back for this game, as the center plans to play. He hasn’t been active since the middle of January and although it was a wrist injury, you absolutely have to expect him to see limited minutes here. The team also traded both Gary Trent and Rodney Hood Thursday, which should lead to very solidified minutes from both Carmelo Anthony and Derrick Jones. Orlando has played slow for years, but I wonder if we see the pace come up without Vucevic, who has been among the league-leaders in post-ups over the last few seasons. However, this is definitely going to be a worse defense without these players and Orlando is already coughing up the fifth-most points per possession to the post on the year (1.00). Anthony, meanwhile, is averaging 3.4 post-up points per game this season, good for the 14th-most in basketball. Meanwhile, C.J. McCollum has been back in the lineup and is coming off a massive game on Thursday, scoring 35 points and adding eight assists in 38 minutes. McCollum has now played 38 minutes in consecutive games and is still affordable at $7,700. And while he is by no means ever a bad play, McCollum’s return does take some of the shine off Damian Lillard at $10,200.
Denver Nuggets @ New Orleans Pelicans
DEN -2, total: 232.5
Lonzo Ball has missed the last two games with a hip injury and after aggravating the injury in Thursday’s practice, he is once again questionable. If he sits out, Nickeil Alexander-Walker would remain a very strong play. Over the last two games with Ball sidelined, NAW has scored 32 and 33 fantasy points. He is sporting a strong 23.2% usage rate with Ball off the floor this season, while averaging just over a fantasy point per minute. And in five games as a starter this season, Alexander-Walker is averaging a strong 19.2 points, 5.2 rebounds, 2.4 assists and nearly 14 field goal attempts per game. Meanwhile, we have already seen the Pelicans give Zion Williamson more ball-handling duties as of late, but that holds especially true with Ball off the floor. Over the last two games, Williamson is averaging 72 touches per game and with Ball off the court this season, his usage rate jumps up to 31.6%. This is a very strong spot for him, as Denver is coughing up a league-worst 68.7% field goal percentage at the rim this season. We know Williamson is an elite slasher, as his 5.0 points per game off cuts are the most in all of basketball. Finally, Brandon Ingram has been fantastic over the last two games, scoring 47.2 and 54.5 fantasy points during that span. He leads the team with 75 touches per game over the last two games and faces a Denver defense that ranks 27th against point forwards on the year.
Nikola Jokic is a little too cheap at $10,600 on DK, especially when you consider just how incredible he’s been this season. On the year, Jokic is sporting an absurd combination of rebounding rate (31%), assist rate (24%) and usage rate (29.5%). I also like Jamal Murray, who has been a lot more consistent over the last month or so. Whenever looking at Murray, I want to find an opposing team that struggles to defend the dribble-handoff. That is the case tonight, as the Pelicans are coughing up the fourth-most points per game (6.4), as well as the fourth-most points per possession (1.04) off the play type this season. Murray, meanwhile, leads the NBA in points per game off handoffs (3.5).
Houston Rockets @ Minnesota Timberwolves
MIN -3.5, total: 228
The Rockets are another shorthanded team. They traded Victor Oladipo to the Heat, while Eric Gordon and David Nwaba have already been ruled out. Meanwhile, Kevin Porter is also listed as questionable for this game. This makes John Wall a very fascinating option in this game, as he’s sporting an absurd 38.8% usage rate with both Oladipo and Gordon off the court over the last four weeks of play. He did get priced up to $8,300 but I think that is definitely still viable, especially in this spot. The Rockets and Timberwolves are the two-worst transition defenses in the NBA, as Minnesota is coughing up the second-most points per game off the play type (22.8). Wall, meanwhile, is averaging 4.0 transition points per game on the year but don’t sleep on the fact that center Christian Wood is averaging the same amount of transition points per game, while shooting nearly 70% off the play type. Our advanced DVP loves Wood, too, facing a Minnesota team that ranks 30th against rebounders, 27th against rim protectors, 21st against stretch centers, 29th against crafty finishers and 27th against scorers.
Karl-Anthony Towns at under $10,000 on DK against the lowly Rockets makes for one of the best plays of the slate. Houston is coughing up the second-most points per game off post-ups this season (6.7), while opponents are posting up 6.4% of the time against them this season, the second-highest mark in basketball. That is great for Towns, who is averaging 4.5 post-up points per game on the year, good for the fifth-most in the league. He is also posting up 22% of the time, one of the highest marks in the league. Meanwhile, Anthony Edwards still has plenty of inconsistencies, but the upside is clearly there, especially when you consider that both he and Towns are absolutely dominating the usage for this team right now.
Indiana Pacers @ Dallas Mavericks
DAL -4.5, total: 227
On a slate with a lot of moving parts, this game doesn’t really stand out too much. Neither of these teams made major moves at the deadline, while injuries really aren’t a factor for this game. Luka Doncic is coming off a bad game, but he is obviously always in play. However, he isn’t the top play of the slate for me tonight. I don’t hate Kristaps Porzingis in tournaments here, as he’s still fairly priced at $8,100. The Pacers are coughing up the fifth-most spot-up points per game on the season (30.7) and third-most points per possession (1.10), while Porzingis is averaging nearly 5.0 points per game off spot-ups, shooting a solid 43% off the play type. Meanwhile, 7.5 of his points per game are coming off catch-and-shoot opportunities.
The Pacers aren’t really on my radar here. If looking to anyone from this team, it would be Domantas Sabonis or Myles Turner, as Dallas can be had on the interior. Sabonis still gives you that massive floor, as he is averaging the second-most touches per game in all of basketball on the season (99.3).
Memphis Grizzlies @ Utah Jazz
UTA -9.5, total: 226.5
This is another game that really isn’t on my radar. Donovan Mitchell has been playing great basketball as of late, scoring at least 49 fantasy points in each of his last four games. During that span, Mitchell is sporting a near 35% usage rate, while he continues to attempt right around 20 shots each night. You also know exactly what you are going to get from someone like Rudy Gobert but there are other centers around his price tag that I prefer on this slate, such as Wood or Adebayo.
Atlanta Hawks @ Golden State Warriors
ATL -6, total: 220.5
The Warriors will once again be without Stephen Curry, which bodes well for Jordan Poole, who has been very good as of late. Poole continues to start and continues to produce. In four games as a starter, Poole is averaging 21.8 points, 3.5 assists, 3.3 rebounds and a healthy 16.3 field goal attempts per game. And with Curry off the floor this season, Poole is sporting a very solid 25.2% usage rate, while averaging just over a fantasy point per minute. Meanwhile, Curry isn’t the only question mark here. Draymond Green missed Thursday’s game with an illness, as did Eric Paschall. Both players are questionable for this game and if they sit, even more potential value opens up. Juan Toscano-Anderson started on Thursday and scored 33.5 fantasy points and while he’s not a high-usage player, he does offer solid peripherals, which will be up for grabs in Green’s absence. Rookie James Wiseman also could be worth a look if both Green and Paschall sit again, as he’s logged 28, 26 and 29 minutes over the last three games. With Curry and Green off the floor this season, Wiseman is sporting a 25.9% usage rate and 34% rebounding rate.
Give me all the Clint Capela here. He is coming off a huge game and is still a tad underpriced at $7,800 on DK. The Warriors interior defense really struggles against players like Capela, as they are surrendering a league-leading 7.4 putback points per game this season. Capela, meanwhile, makes his living off offensive rebounds, averaging the second-most putback points per game on the season (4.3). Trae Young is also once again a very strong play at $9,100 on DK but with all of these wings pretty much healthy for the Hawks, they are all pretty much off my board.
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Los Angeles Lakers
LAL -4.5, total: 211
Collin Sexton missed the Cavs’ last game with a sore hamstring and is questionable for this one. With Sexton sidelined last game, Darius Garland touched the ball 98 times, averaging 5.62 seconds per touch, while possessing the ball for over nine minutes in that game. He scored 43 fantasy points and if Sexton sits again, Garland would be worth a look, as he is sporting a 26.6% usage rate and 20% assist rate with Sexton off the floor this season. The rest of this team, however, is pretty underwhelming. The matchup isn’t as bad as it once was, but I also believe that Jarrett Allen is a bit too expensive at $7,900 on DK. If choosing another member from the Cavaliers, it would probably be Larry Nance at $6,500, who offers plenty of peripherals and is locked into very strong minutes right now.
I understand he is playing 37-plus minutes and taking plenty of shots with LeBron James and Anthony Davis sidelined. However, I’d be lying if I told you that a $7,600 price tag on Kyle Kuzma didn’t frighten me. I’d rather play Dennis Schroder at $7,100, who is second in all of basketball in touches per game over the last five outings (97.2), while averaging 7.4 minutes of possession per game during that span. Montrezl Harrell has also been pretty safe as of late and faces a Cleveland team that is allowing the seventh-most points per possession to opposing roll men out of the pick and roll this season (1.18).
