Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
There are six more games in the NBA Thursday night as the season and the DFS action roll on. Despite this being a bit of a smaller slate, there are plenty of injuries to monitor that will impact decisions you will have to make when setting your DFS lineups.
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Utah Jazz @ Washington Wizards
UTAH -12, total: 236
The Jazz will be without Mike Conley for this game, as the veteran point guard will sit for injury management purposes. This makes Donovan Mitchell more interesting, as he’s sporting a 32% usage rate with Conley off the floor this season to go along with a 19% assist rate. He is also averaging 1.21 fantasy points per minute in the split. In seven games with Conley out of the lineup this season, Mitchell is averaging a strong 47.5 DK points per game. We also see Joe Ingles get a boost when Conley is out, as he handles the ball more, while his assist rate jumps up to a solid 16% mark. Jordan Clarkson is also a viable mid-range play, as his usage rate is sitting at 27.1% with Conley off the floor this season, while averaging 1.06 fantasy points per minute. The Wizards, meanwhile, rank 29th against scorers and dead last against opposing bench players on the season, per our advanced DvP tool, making this a fantastic spot for the NBA’s sixth man of the year. Finally, he’s priced higher than he usually is ($8,200) but Gobert still projects as a very safe play with a good amount of upside still.
For the Wizards, Russell Westbrook is coming off another triple-double and has a terrific combination of floor and ceiling, though he definitely isn’t my top play of the slate or anything like that. A $9,100 price tag for Bradley Beal is definitely intriguing, meanwhile, and the Jazz have actually been a bottom-10 defense against shooters off screens. That could bode well for Beal, who is averaging 4.6 points per game off screens this season, tied for the most in all of basketball. Finally, we are starting to see more potential from Rui Hachimura as of late and given his massive minutes, he remains a viable cash game option at $5,600 on DraftKings. He’s logged 38, 37 and 38 minutes over his last three games.
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Atlanta Hawks
ATL -7, total: 225
You have to love the Hawks here. Oklahoma City’s defense is terrible; they are often running out players that aren’t viable NBA starters. The other day, I wrote up why Zach LaVine was in a smash spot against the Thunder, and he went out and scored 40 points in three quarters. I love Trae Young here for basically the same reason. Oklahoma City is coughing up the second-most points per game to opposing ball handlers out of the pick and roll this season (21.9). Young, meanwhile, is averaging 13.9 points per game as the pick and roll ball handler on the year, good for the third-most in the NBA. And according to our advanced DVP tool, the Thunder also rank 26th in basketball against dimers. He’s a top-tier play regardless, but the rest of the Hawks’ value depends on the status of Clint Capela, who has missed the last two games with a heel injury. During that span, John Collins has been much better for fantasy, posting consecutive 20-10 outings. And in that same stretch, Collins is averaging 20 rebounding chances per game, as there are more boards up for grabs with Capela and his league-leading 23.3 rebounding chances per game unavailable. Meanwhile, Collins is sporting a 30% rebounding rate and 26.3% usage rate with Capela off the floor, while averaging 1.23 fantasy points per minute. He’s in play at a $7,200 price tag regardless but becomes a priority if Capela is out again. The same can be said for Danilo Gallinari, who is averaging right around a fantasy point per minute with Capela off the court this season.
For the Thunder, it is difficult to get excited about anyone from this team outside of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. He’s the catalyst for this entire team, sporting a 28.8% usage rate, 14% rebounding rate and 18% assist rate for the season. Al Horford will be back off his rest game but $6,300 on DraftKings is a tad high for a player who likely won’t reach 30 minutes. I also don’t feel great about Aleksej Pokusevski, despite his huge minutes as of late. Those minutes will come back down if both Lu Dort and Theo Maledon return to the lineup, while the price tag is pushing the $5,000 mark.
Orlando Magic @ New York Knicks
NYK -5, total: 206.5
There are a lot of injuries to keep an eye on in this game. For the Magic, Aaron Gordon, Evan Fournier and Terrence Ross are all listed as questionable. Ross returned to the lineup in Orlando’s last game and logged 34 minutes, while Fournier and Gordon remained sidelined. Fournier has practiced each of the last two days, giving him a good shot of returning to action. Gordon also practiced on Wednesday and while he could play, I’d imagine he still sees limited minutes, making him an extremely risky option on this slate. Nikola Vucevic is coming off another huge game, scoring 38 points to go along with 10 rebounds and six assists. The matchup is nothing to write home about, as New York has a top-five defense and plays at the slowest pace in all of basketball. However, Vucevic’s usage and involvement will be tough to ignore here, especially if Fournier and Gordon remain sidelined.
The Knicks backcourt, meanwhile, is also depleted at the moment. Elfrid Payton and Derrick Rose have already been ruled out, while rookie Immanuel Quickley is questionable with an ankle injury. Hopefully Quickley can suit up, as he’s sporting a solid 24% usage rate with Rose off the floor over the last two weeks. If he can’t play, Alec Burks would likely handle the ball a ton and would make for a strong DFS play considering he’s always been a relatively high-usage player. Of course, the offense would still run through Julius Randle, who is averaging 91.3 touches per game over his last three outings, the seventh-most in basketball during that span. But with this being a slow-paced game with one of the lowest totals we’ve seen all season, targeting many players from this game is not an avenue I’ll be taking this evening.
New Orleans Pelicans @ Portland Trail Blazers
POR -1, total: 239
These teams just met the other night in what was an absolute thriller. We saw MVP candidate Damian Lillard continue to shine, scoring 50 points in Portland’s come-from-behind win, while adding 10 assists and six rebounds. He’s up to $11,000 on DK now and CJ McCollum did return to the lineup. However, to say he suddenly isn’t in play anymore is crazy, especially considering how he’s played this season. McCollum played 26 minutes in his first game back and while his playing time will gradually increase, I don’t expect a huge uptick in just his second game back. Nobody else really stands out from this team, however. Robert Covington should continue to play huge minutes and if he grabs some rebounds and hits his triples, he’ll be a good play. But at $6,100 on DK, he’s far from a must-play, while Enes Kanter’s minutes are sometimes in the mid-30s and sometimes in the high-20s.
For the Pelicans, I have no issue going right back to Zion Williamson against a weak Portland defense. The Blazers are allowing around 49 paint points per game on the season, while Zion is averaging a league-leading 4.8 points per game off cuts on the year. And as I’ve discussed very often, the Pelicans are giving Zion more ball-handling duties, especially out of the pick and roll, which has helped his peripherals. Considering he has seemingly been a lock for 20-plus real points over the course of the season, an uptick in peripherals makes Williamson a very intriguing play every single slate. Meanwhile, Lonzo Ball is coming off a game where he dished out a career-high 17 assists. Because he’s turned into more of a spot-up shooter this season (averaging the third-most spot-up points per game at 6.4), the assist totals have been much more inconsistent than we would have thought entering the season. Portland, however, has not been a good spot-up defense this year, coughing up the second-most points per possession (1.12) and second-worst field goal percentage (42.8%) off the play type. The Blazers also rank 29th against primary ball handlers on the year, making this a good spot for Lonzo. Finally, an $8,100 price tag for Brandon Ingram is more than fair, especially against a Portland team that ranks 23rd against crafty finishers and 26th against point forwards.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Phoenix Suns
PHX -10.5, total: 230
We haven’t seen him have a huge game in a while, but I still believe $6,200 is too cheap for Deandre Ayton. He’s scored 37 and 35 fantasy points over his last two games and while his minutes have been down as of late, Ayton could still go for 40-plus fantasy points in 30 minutes of action against Minnesota. Meanwhile, both Chris Paul and Devin Booker remain under $8,000 on DraftKings, making them very solid options against a bad Minnesota defense. The Suns are playing much slower this season, but Booker is still averaging a respectable 4.4 transition points per game, which bodes well for him against a Timberwolves unit that is coughing up 22.9 transition points per contest, good for the second-most in basketball. I also don’t hate Mikal Bridges at $5,200. He bodes well in pace-up spots against teams that can play sloppy, while his 3.9 transition points per game rank second on the team.
Anthony Edwards has been playing much, much better as of late but this isn’t the spot for me to pay over $7,000 for him. Not against one of the best defensive units in basketball, a team that can put Bridges on him. Or even Paul, considering the Timberwolves are still without D'Angelo Russell in their backcourt. Karl-Anthony Towns, meanwhile, is probably still a bit too cheap at $9,400 on DraftKings, making him a very viable tournament play.
Charlotte Hornets @ Los Angeles Lakers
LAL -8, total: 225
LeBron James continues to be an elite play, as he remains the focal point of this Lakers team. He’s recorded triple-doubles in consecutive games and with Anthony Davis off the court this season, James is sporting a 32.9% usage rate, 24% assist rate and 24% rebounding rate, while averaging 1.49 fantasy points per minute. Montrezl Harrell, meanwhile, has stepped up with the Lakers without both Davis and Marc Gasol. He’s scored at least 34 fantasy points in each of his last four games and with Davis and Gasol off the floor this season, Harrell’s rebounding rate jumps up to 25%, while averaging 1.12 fantasy points per minute. Harrell has been playing plenty of minutes at the five lately, which bodes well for him here, facing a weak Charlotte interior that is surrendering the third-most rebounds per game to opposing centers on the season (16.6). I also think that Dennis Schroder is a perfectly fine play at $6,200 and could get hot from three against the Hornets, as 39.9% of the points scored against Charlotte this season have come from beyond the arc, the third-highest rate in basketball.
For the Hornets, no one really stands out as a must-play in this game. Everyone is seemingly priced where they should be and while the Lakers defense is certainly worse without Davis in the lineup, they still aren’t suddenly a pushover or anything. My favorite play would probably be Gordon Hayward at $7,300 on DraftKings, while LaMelo Ball certainly has that upside we look for, though it is fair to wonder what his production will look like if Devonte' Graham’s minutes continue to trend upward.
