Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
We have an absolutely loaded 10-game DFS slate in the NBA Wednesday night. There are so many good plays to choose from, especially in the $8,000-$9,000 range, on top of there already being a handful of superstars to consider.
Let’s go game-by-game and try to identify the best plays, shall we?
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Dallas Mavericks @ Indiana Pacers
IND -1, total: 217
Luka Doncic is coming off easily his worst game of the season, scoring just 15 points to go along with seven rebounds and nine assists. Yes, Luka’s bad games are still pretty damn good, but it was odd to see him only attempt 11 shots against the Raptors. This honestly isn’t the greatest matchup for Doncic to get back on track, as the Pacers rank inside the top-10 in six of his eight archetypes, according to our advanced DVP, which includes dimer, scorer, primary ball handler and superstar, where they rank second in the league at defending. However, the matchup is definitely enhanced if Myles Turner (hand) can’t return to the lineup. Turner has been an elite defender this season, averaging over four blocks per game, while opponents are shooting 40.8% on field goal attempts defended by Turner this season. For a player like Luka, who is averaging a league-leading 25.0 drives per game, a potential Turner absence would be massive. He’s also been priced back down to $10,700 on DraftKings after his poor outing, which is too cheap. I also really like Kristaps Porzingis, who has attempted a healthy 17 shots per game since making his season debut, while sporting a strong 28.5% usage rate. His price has come back down below $8,000 and is in an intriguing spot against a Pacers defense that is allowing the third-most points per game (34.2) to opposing spot-up shooters, as well as the most points per possession (1.20) and third-highest field goal percentage (44.1%) to the play type. Porzingis, meanwhile, is averaging over five points per game off spot-ups.
For the Pacers, look for Domantas Sabonis and Malcolm Brogdon to continue doing the heavy lifting with Victor Oladipo gone and T.J. Warren still sidelined. Sabonis is still averaging 104.1 touches per game this season, good for the second-most in basketball, while Brogdon is averaging 93.5 per game, the fifth-most in the league. I don’t hate pairing the two together and running it back with Luka or Porzingis, especially with this game featuring a close spread. The Mavericks have struggled to defend the pick and roll this year, coughing up the most points per game to opposing roll men (10.5), which bodes well for Sabonis, who is averaging the fourth-most points per game as the roll man (4.2). The Mavericks are also struggling to protect the rim this season, surrendering the third-highest field goal percentage from within four feet of the basket (70%). If Turner ends up sitting, Sabonis will once again slide back to the five, which will help his rebounding upside, especially with Doug McDermott playing the power forward.
Brooklyn Nets @ Cleveland Cavaliers
BKN -10, total: 223.5
This game is really, really tough to project.
Both teams are getting players back into their lineups. Brooklyn, which has dominated on offense with James Harden and Kevin Durant over the last two games, are likely to be re-joined by Kyrie Irving, who is not on the injury report. During his first two games with the team, Harden is sporting a usage rate just over 36%, while Durant’s is hovering right around the 35% mark. Harden is also averaging well over 100 touches per game during that stretch, so it’ll be interesting to see what the usage looks like with Kyrie back in the mix. All three Brooklyn superstars are tournament options for me here, especially when you consider they are huge favorites against the Cavaliers.
Meanwhile, Cleveland isn’t any easier. Andre Drummond is coming off a huge game the other night but has been priced up to $9,900 on DraftKings. That price would be warranted if Jarrett Allen wasn’t making his Cleveland debut in this game and because the Cavs haven’t played Drummond and JaVale McGee together this year, I doubt they’ll play Allen and Drummond together all that much. It is a fantastic matchup for Drummond, but the presence of Allen worries me a bit, especially with both Collin Sexton and Darius Garland possibly returning to the lineup, too. Drummond could fall down to 32 or 33 minutes with Allen in the mix, which is worrisome when his price has climbed so much.
Boston Celtics @ Philadelphia 76ers
PHI -5, total: 220.5
Kemba Walker made his season debut the other night, playing 20 minutes. He scored just under 23 fantasy points and shot the ball 13 times, while sporting a healthy massive 44.2% usage rate. If we get any word that his minutes limit could jump up to 25, he wouldn’t be the worst GPP play here, especially with the Celtics still without Jayson Tatum. Of course, Jaylen Brown remains the safest option from this team, as he’s attempting nearly 19 shots per game this season, while sporting a 31.7% usage rate with Tatum off the floor. His fantasy points per minute jump to 1.19 in the split, too. Brown is really the only member of the Celtics that interests me, however. Tristan Thompson and Daniel Theis are both eating away at each other’s minutes, production and upside, while a matchup against Joel Embiid isn’t exactly enticing.
Speaking of Embiid, whenever he is under $10,000 on DraftKings, I have interest, especially given how well he’s played this year. He is sporting a 30.4% usage rate and 36% rebounding rate, while averaging 1.54 fantasy points per minute. The 76ers are finally at full strength but it won’t change the identity of this offense. The Celtics interior defense is nothing to fear, as they are allowing a 67.7% field goal percentage at the rim this season, which is the 6th-worst rate in basketball. Embiid is once again my favorite player from Philadelphia, while no one else really stands out. Seth Curry will be back, which takes away from Shake Milton a bit. Meanwhile, Ben Simmons is $9,100, a rather steep price tag. You know the floor is going to be there but until he starts attempting more shots, I question the ceiling.
Detroit Pistons @ Atlanta Hawks
ATL -5.5, total: 220.5
This game is definitely intriguing, as it features two defenses that you can certainly target. Let’s start with the Hawks and Trae Young, who is coming off consecutive 50-point outings for fantasy. Over those last two games, Young has attempted a whopping 25 free throws, as he continues to attack the basket at a high rate, averaging 17.8 drives per game, the sixth-most in basketball. This is a very strong matchup for Young, facing a Pistons defense that ranks 26th against dimers and 28th against both primary ball handlers and scorers this season. Detroit is also allowing a 45% field goal percentage to opposing ball handlers out of the pick and roll, the eighth-highest rate in the league. That bodes well for Young, who ranks fourth in points per game as the ball-handler out of the set (12.8), while his 13.2 such possessions per game rank third. I also really like De'Andre Hunter in this game, especially if Cam Reddish is once again out. In competitive games, Hunter is playing 34-36 minutes, especially with Atlanta missing so many wings at the moment. He’s doing a lot of his work off spot-ups, averaging the seventh-most spot-up points per game on the year (6.5). Hunter is also shooting over 49% off spot-up shots this season and is facing a Pistons defense that is coughing up the sixth-most spot-up points per game (30.5), as well as the third-most points per possession (1.13) and second-highest field goal percentage (44.8%) to the play type. Kevin Huerter has been much more productive with Reddish out but DraftKings suddenly decided to price him as if he was Kawhi Leonard, apparently, as he’s — checks notes — $9,500 on the slate. I’m not sure how that happened but unless his price gets adjusted, I won’t be playing Huerter. Finally, I will once again continue to play Clint Capela over John Collins, despite the fact that the price difference is now $700. Over the last two weeks, Capela is sporting a 46% rebounding rate, while Collins is hovering around 25 percent. But when sharing the floor with Capela during that span, the rebounding rate drops to 22%.
If using a Piston or two here, I love running it back with Jerami Grant, who has dropped down to a very intriguing $7,700 price tag. Grant has been awesome this season, averaging 24.9 points, 6.1 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.4 blocks and 1.0 steals per game. His usage rate has climbed by around eight% in his first year with the Pistons, while we are seeing his touches per game climb by nearly 30. Facing a Hawks team that ranks ninth in pace should bode well for a player like Grant. The only other player from the Pistons that slightly interests me is Derrick Rose, who still leads the team in usage rate (29.6%), while averaging 1.18 fantasy points per minute. In a close game the other night, Rose played 27 minutes and scored 33.75 fantasy points. This is a great matchup, as the Hawks rank 26th against bench players, 26th against primary ball-handlers and 22nd against scorers on the season.
Miami Heat @ Toronto Raptors
TOR -3.5, total: 219.5
The Heat will remain without some key players for this game, as Jimmy Butler has already been ruled out, while Tyler Herro, who has missed the last two games with a minor neck injury, is listed as questionable. Goran Dragic started the last game and if Herro is out again, he makes for a very solid option, as he’s sporting a 29% usage rate and 27% assist rate with both Herro and Butler off the floor this season, while averaging 1.18 fantasy points per minute in the split. And over the last two games, Dragic is averaging 6.7 minutes of possession, a top-10 mark in basketball during that span. Kendrick Nunn would also become a very solid value play if Herro is out, as he’s logged 27 and 34 minutes over the last two games with Herro sidelined. Bam Adebayo, meanwhile, remains a very good play, as he’s reached 50 fantasy points in each of his last two games, while sporting a near 30% usage rate and 1.51 fantasy points per minute with Butler and Herro off the floor this season. Bam is averaging over 71 touches per game over his last two outings and while he’s a very strong option, there are also other centers around him that I do prefer.
Chris Boucher remains too cheap, if you ask me. He’s $7,300 on DraftKings, which may seem like a lot, but he’s just been so, so good. Boucher is averaging 1.41 fantasy points per minute, while his rebounding rate is hovering around that 30% mark. We’ve seen him score at least 20 real points in each of his last four games, while averaging 9.2 rebounds per game during that span. This definitely isn’t a stellar matchup for Boucher, but I also believe that he’s still just underpriced and if the Raptors finally just let him play 35 minutes or so, he could legitimately break the slate. The rest of the Raptors are fine because their four main starters play so many minutes in close games. However, they are nowhere near priorities for me on this slate. I’d prefer going to Kyle Lowry or Fred VanVleet over Pascal Siakam in this spot, but Boucher remains the top Raptor for me Wednesday.
Orlando Magic @ Minnesota Timberwolves
ORL -4, total: 218.5
I absolutely love Orlando’s top two players from this game — Nikola Vucevic and Aaron Gordon.
Let’s start with Vucevic, who is probably the top center play of the slate Wednesday after his price dropped to $8,600, which is just too cheap. He had a bad game on the 15th but has bounced back with consecutive very good games and now finds himself in a great spot against Minnesota, a team that ranks 26th in defensive efficiency for the season. The Wolves are also coughing up the 7.3 points per game to the post, the second-most in basketball. That bodes well for Vucevic, who is averaging 4.0 post-up points per game on the season, which ranks eighth in the league, while his 8.5 post-ups per game are good for the fifth-most in the league. Minnesota also ranks 27th against rebounders on the season, while also ranking 23rd against superstars, which is now one of Vucevic’s archetypes. It is going to be really, really difficult for me to not just lock Vucevic into a ton of my lineups.
However, we have to talk about Gordon, who is taking on a much larger role as of late. For starters, we know that his minutes limit is gone, as Gordon has played at least 35 minutes in three of his last five games. But with Orlando missing so many guards and ball-handlers, Gordon has taken on that responsibility. In fact, over the last week, Gordon’s 19% assist rate leads the Magic, and over his last five games, Gordon is averaging just under 80 touches per game. He is also averaging 16 assist points created per game during that span, which is way up from his season average of 8.9. Gordon just has the ball in his hands a lot more with Markelle Fultz, Michael Carter-Williams and Evan Fournier out and that trend should continue tonight. Gordon is also PG/SF eligible on DraftKings, which is very interesting. I brought this up on the podcast but right now, there really isn’t a huge difference between Gordon and Ben Simmons’ usage, yet Gordon is taking more shots, has more usage and is significantly cheaper. Think about it.
For Minnesota, Karl-Anthony Towns will obviously remain out. We saw Jarred Vanderbilt get the start last game, logging 29 minutes and scoring 29 fantasy points, despite taking just four shots. That is actually very encouraging that he can score that many fantasy points with such little volume, while Vanderbilt is averaging 1.15 fantasy points per minute with Towns off the floor this season, while his rebounding rate climbs up to 35%. Regarding salary, Vanderbilt is probably the top Minnesota player Wednesday and could get some involvement in the pick and roll in this game, facing an Orlando defense that is allowing the second-most points per game to opposing roll men this season (10.2). Of course, the usage will go through D’Angelo Russell, who had a 34.6% usage rate in his last game. Not only is Towns out but the team is also without Ricky Rubio, which solidifies his minutes, touches and usage. He is sporting a 31.4% usage rate with Towns off the floor this season, while averaging a healthy 1.25 fantasy points per minute in the split. Russell has attempted at least 21 shots in each of his last four games and we know the volume is going to be there. His price has come up to $8,800 on DraftKings and is a strong play if you are running it back after using Gordon or Vucevic.
Phoenix Suns @ Houston Rockets
PHO -5.5, total: 219.5
The Suns have just simply not been as enticing for fantasy this season, despite the addition of Chris Paul. It has hurt Devin Booker’s fantasy ceiling, as the Suns are slowing it down and running way more halfcourt sets. Phoenix ranks 29th in the league in pace this season, while ranking bottom-five in basketball in seconds per possession after hauling in a defensive rebound. It has worked out for the Suns from a real-life perspective but it’s limited the ceiling for everyone, not just Booker, for fantasy. Having said that, Booker really isn’t on my radar whenever he is over $8,000 right now, which just sounds weird. Paul, meanwhile, remains in that low-$7,000 range and is a very fine cash game play, scoring at least 32 fantasy points in seven of his last 10 games. Deandre Ayton is coming off a very good game and is worth a look at just $7,000 on DraftKings, though I do wish they were running more pick and roll with him, as he is sporting just a 15% frequency rate off the play type. But because the Suns are runnin far more half court sets this season, Ayton is averaging 3.9 post-up points per game, good for the eighth-most in the league. The Rockets, meanwhile, are allowing a league-high 8.3 points per game to the post, while opposing offenses are posting up 8.2% of the time against Houston, the highest rate in basketball.
Victor Oladipo made his Rockets debut the other night and he was fantastic, scoring 32 points to go along with five rebounds and nine assists. He had a 42.1% usage rate in that game, while touching the ball 84 times and possessing the ball for nearly 7.5 minutes. During his time with Indiana over the last two seasons, Malcolm Brogdon had been operating the pick and roll but Oladipo ran the offense with John Wall out the other night, scoring 22 points out of the set, while seeing 18 such possessions. Those numbers will obviously drop when Wall returns but he’s already been ruled out for tonight’s game, which means we can comfortably go back to Oladipo here. I also have no problem with Eric Gordon, who is probably still a tad too cheap at $5,500 given the role he’ll continue to have in this offense. Getting 1to 6-20 shots seems like a lock for Gordon until Wall returns to the lineup. Finally, it is difficult to say Christian Wood is a bad play right now and you can go to him if you’d like. However, there are other centers around him that I do like more.
San Antonio Spurs @ Golden State Warriors
GSW -1, total: 228.5
This game is very intriguing for fantasy, as it features a high total and close spread. San Antonio has not been very strong on the defensive end this season, allowing the ninth-most points per game to opposing point guards (25.4). The Spurs also rank 28th against dimers and 25th against crafty finishers, putting Stephen Curry in a strong spot tonight, especially when he’s under $10,000. Andrew Wiggins is questionable to play tonight and his potential absence could possibly lead to even more usage from Curry, as his usage rate actually climbs by 3.4% with Wiggins off the floor, putting him just over 35%. Damion Lee could also become a decent value play if Wiggins is ruled out. He’d likely start and play 25-27 minutes, while San Antonio is allowing the third-highest field goal percentage on non-corner threes this season, which make up 53% of Lee’s shot attempts so far. I also will continue to play Draymond Green at his price tag, as the floor is rock solid due to his many peripherals.
Three players really stand out from the Spurs. The first is Dejounte Murray, as this is a pace-up spot for San Antonio, facing a Warriors team that ranks third in the NBA in pace. That bodes well for a player like Murray, who thrives in the open court and can collect a ton of steals, rebounds and assists in faster-paced games. Murray’s 4.2 transition points per game for the season easily lead the Spurs, while he’s getting out in transition just over 22% of the time. I also think DeMar DeRozan is perfectly fine, especially if you are looking to stack this game up. Golden State is allowing 7.2 isolation points per game on the year, good for the fourth-most in basketball, as well as the eighth-most points per possession off the play type (0.96). DeRozan, meanwhile, is averaging 4.1 points per game off isolation this season, the seventh-most in the league. He is also playing a ton of power forward, giving him more rebounding potential. Finally, I don’t hate Keldon Johnson as a mid-range play, as he’s been very sound so far during his rookie campaign.
Sacramento Kings @ Los Angeles Clippers
LAC -10.5, total: 231
This game is pretty simple: Play Kawhi Leonard and Paul George and pray it stays close.
I wrote about this game the last time these teams met and basically said the same thing. It’s an incredible matchup for both Leonard and George, as the Kings rank dead last against dimers, primary ball-handlers, scorers and crafty finishers, all archetypes that both players have right now. The Kings are also a terrible isolation defense, allowing 9.3 points per game off the play type, the second-most in the league. Leonard, meanwhile, is averaging 4.2 isolation possessions per game this season (5th-most), while George is averaging over three points and nearly 1.20 points per possession off isolations. Sacramento is also allowing a healthy 43% field goal percentage off screens (10th-worst), which helps George, who is averaging 3.0 points per game off screens this year, good for the seventh-most in the league. If the Kings can keep this game tight, George and Leonard can both easily go for 50-plus fantasy points, as they have dominated the usage for the Clippers, posting 28.2 and 29.1% usage rates, respectively.
Meanwhile, I likely will only use Kings players as run-back options with Leonard or George. De'Aaron Fox is coming off a huge game but is pretty expensive on this slate, while the matchup isn’t anything to write home about. Marvin Bagley’s minutes have finally been over 30 in each of his last two games, but it is worth noting that Hassan Whiteside has been inactive for both contests. If he returns to the lineup, it could push Bagley back down to 28 or 29 minutes, though he is an interesting GPP dart throw at his mid-range price tag, as he’s sporting a healthy 24.4% usage rate and 30% rebounding rate for the season, while averaging just over a fantasy point per minute.
Memphis Grizzlies @ Portland Trail Blazers
POR -1, total: 22.5
I really like this game to close out the slate.
For starters, CJ McCollum will remain out for Portland, which means you can safely go right back to Damian Lillard. With McCollum out last game, Lillard sported a whopping 38.4% usage rate, while averaging 6.18 seconds per touch. He also possessed the basketball for nine minutes and for some perspective, Luka Doncic leads the league in average time of possession for the season at 9.4 minutes per game. Simply put, Lillard is obviously going to run the show for Portland for the foreseeable future and he’s a very good play again tonight, though because his price has come up so much and this is such a loaded slate, I don’t necessarily think he’s someone you have to have in your lineups. I also have some interest in Enes Kanter, who continues to play more minutes with Jusuf Nurkic out. He’s logged 29 and 27 minutes over the last two games and with Nurkic off the floor this season, Kanter’s rebounding rate is sitting at an insane 47%, while he’s averaging well over a fantasy point per minute. Memphis is a favorable matchup for Kanter, as they rank bottom-10 against rebounders and skilled centers this season.
I will absolutely be stacking Lillard with Ja Morant here. Morant is really, really cheap at just $7,300 and is coming off a strong game against the Suns, scoring just under 42 fantasy points. He is sporting a near 30% usage rate with Jonas Valanciunas off the floor this season, who has once again been ruled out for the Grizzlies. Xavier Tillman has been getting the start at center and has logged 28 and 29 minutes over the last two games. Tillman is averaging a fantasy point per minute with JoVal off the floor this season and at $3,500 on DraftKings, he is arguably the top value play of the slate. It also helps that he is PF eligible, allowing you to play more of the high-end centers on this slate.
