NFL Circa Millions Picks for Week 3
Michael Cohen
The new year is here (finally), and we can finally exhale and look forward to a (hopefully) prosperous 2021. What makes this even better is the fact that the NBA has graced us with a massive 10-game DFS slate to kick off the season.
With a couple of games under our belt for just about every team, the pace and Defensive efficiency metrics listed are now current. That said, it’s important to take them with a bit more of a grain of salt than normal considering we are still less than a week into the season.
Vegas odds derived from DraftKings SportsBook.
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Memphis Grizzlies @ Charlotte Hornets (-4.5)
Pace: MEM (4th), CHA (11th)
Defensive efficiency: MEM (27th), CHA (7th)
The first full game without Ja Morant has come and gone, and the rest of the team stepped in roughly how we expected. Dillon Brooks led the team in usage without Morant (32.1%) and although his efficiency was subpar, his sheer volume alone makes him a worthwhile target at $6,300 in this matchup. Tyus Jones picked up the spot start at point guard, but it’s Desmond Bane who looks like the better point-per-dollar piece, as he saw 32 minutes and posted 25.5 DK points. He sits at $3,700 and with Grayson Allen doubtful, he’s a top value play on the slate.
Jonas Valanciunas finds himself in his usual GPP-viable role, carrying a 1.16 FPPM clip into a matchup with an exploitable frontcourt. The only concern is whether Charlotte goes small with P.J. Washington at the five. If so, that could lead to more Brandon Clarke, who feels a touch cheap at $4,800 on FanDuel.
For Charlotte, LaMelo Ball got his first legitimate run (29 minutes) in last game’s blowout, posting 22 points, eight rebounds and five assists. He should still see 20-plus minutes, making him a worthwhile tournament flyer. His backcourt teammates Devonte Graham and Terry Rozier both make for more appealing targets, but they aren’t necessarily core plays on a 10-game slate in cash.
Bismack Biyombo is still cheap ($4,900 on DraftKings) and has been playing 30 minutes over the last three games sans Cody Zeller. He’s a viable value play, but not one to get overly excited about as he has yet to flash any form of ceiling.
Boston Celtics (-9) @ Detroit Pistons
Pace: BOS (T22nd), DET (24th)
Defensive efficiency: BOS (20th), DET (T22nd)
Jayson Tatum is still the alpha in the Boston offense, but in terms of DFS, Jaylen Brown continues to be the smarter target. He remains $500 cheaper than Tatum on DraftKings yet has averaged more fantasy points per minute (1.31), is less than a percent behind in usage rate (29.4%) and has a 5.2% higher assist rate (19.5%). Both are viable in this matchup, but Brown is the better option.
With Tristan Thompson expected back, that essentially rules out the viability of the bigs, as their minutes distribution is too frustrating for DFS. If Jeff Teague starts against at point guard, he makes for a viable value play, as his potential assists skyrocket. He averaged 1.13 fantasy points per minute in his first start.
Blake Griffin is out once again, clearing the way for Jerami Grant (1.46 FPPM without Griffin), Josh Jackson (1.26) and Mason Plumlee (1.24) to continue to garner more action in the frontcourt. While this isn’t an easy matchup by any means, Boston’s defense has yet to prove they’re as good as last year. Killian Hayes is also questionable. If he were to sit, we could see Derrick Rose thrust into the starting lineup, which would make him an extremely appealing play, especially with Griffin out, as he holds a 26.6% usage rate without Griffin on the court and would see an uptick in playing time. Delon Wright would also become an intriguing option off the bench.
Miami Heat @ Dallas Mavericks (-1.5)
Pace: MIA (13th), DAL (28th)
Defensive efficiency: MIA (21st), DAL (14th)
Jimmy Butler is expected back for the Heat (which makes this a confusing line, so bettors, hop on the Heat before the line moves), so we should expect the Miami rotation to normalize.
With that said, Tyler Herro is still a viable target if he continues to start at point guard. He’s obviously been far more effective with Butler out, but still averages close to a fantasy point per minute with a 21.4% assist rate. The rest of the Heat are fine targets (Bam Adebayo, Jimmy Butler, Goran Dragic), but they don’t jump off of the page on such a loaded slate, making them easy to pass by.
The Mavericks are another team that are basically worth crossing off your list as you condense your player pool. Yes, even Luka Doncic. If you’re in the camp that the ceiling game is coming (I am too), there’s obviously merit to playing him, as he may carry the highest usage rate on the slate. But given the superstar’s volatility so far this season and how out of sorts the Mavs have looked, I’ll take my chances elsewhere.
Atlanta Hawks @ Brooklyn Nets (-6.5)
Pace: ATL (T5th), BKN (8th)
Defensive efficiency: ATL (28th), BKN (6th)
If this game is anything like what we saw two days ago, you’re going to want a lot of action here as there were a total of 286 points in the first contest. Kevin Durant ($9,100) is still too cheap on DraftKings and finally popped for over 60 DraftKings points in the last game against the Hawks. With him and Kyrie Irving staggering playing time more, this only helps their usage rates and ball dominance, making both elite plays at their prices.
Joe Harris is still cheap on DraftKings and saw eight three-point attempts last game, showcasing his upside on a site that rewards success from the perimeter. He’s a viable value at $5,300. Caris LeVert is another piece from the Nets worth consideration based on his usage rate when on the court, but his $7,100 price tag has him better suited for tournaments, not cash games.
As for the Hawks, both Trae Young ($10,100) and John Collins ($7,200) are priced reasonably for their roles and both found success last game against the Nets, as both posted 30-point double-doubles. Of the two, Collins may garner more ownership at his price, but both are rock-solid cash game plays and need to be in every game stack of this game that you make.
Danilo Gallinari is out, which means more wing minutes and production for De'Andre Hunter, Bogdan Bogdanovic and Cam Reddish. Of the three, Bogdanovic makes the most sense, seeing 29 minutes off the bench where he can dominate the usage, plus he’s only $5,400 and has posted 33-plus DK points in back-to-back outings.
Chicago Bulls @ Milwaukee Bucks (-14.5)
Pace: CHI (2nd), MIL (10th)
Defensive efficiency: CHI (T22nd), MIL (13th)
Chicago is on the second leg of a back-to-back, so if there’s any further reason to attack them from a DFS perspective, there’s another. While the 14.5-point spread may have people running away from the Bucks due to blowout potential, this team got 20-balled by the Knicks, so the potential for a surprisingly close game is certainly there. With that said, I don’t see it happening.
Giannis Antetokounmpo is still an elite play at $11,000, as we finally saw a usual game from him last game (68.8 DK points), so if this game blows out, there’s always potential he’s the reason. Based on the rest of the slate, however, I find myself leaning more toward a balanced build, making him a GPP play and not a cash necessity.
Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday are fine mid-tier plays, but if there’s anyone to target on the Bucks if you’re scripting for a blowout, it’s Bobby Portis. He’s averaged 1.05 fantasy points per minute and assuming he sees 25-30 minutes, that alone puts him on pace for roughly 6-6.5x his salary at $4,500.
On the Bulls side, it’s hard to endorse Coby White and Zach LaVine in a game that should get out of hand quickly. While they’re fine tournament options given their ceilings, I have more interest in the frontcourt, where the Bulls are missing Lauri Markkanen and Chandler Hutchison. That should pave the way for Otto Porter (57.5 DK points in 31 minutes last game) and Thaddeus Young (31.3 DK points in 27 minutes) to pick up additional run. Of the two, Young is the preferred option for $1,900 cheaper and makes for a great value play alongside Desmond Bane and Raul Neto to open up salary to do whatever you want with the rest of your lineup.
Washington Wizards (-1) @ Minnesota Timberwolves
Pace: WAS (3rd), MIN (9th)
Defensive efficiency: WAS (26th), MIN (15th)
With it being the second half of a back-to-back, Russell Westbrook will be out, which paves the way for Raul Neto to pick up another spot-start. In his first start sans Westbrook, he posted 22 points, five assists and four boards in 32 minutes for 40.5 DraftKings points. While this is obviously the absolute ceiling for Neto and not a stat line to bank on again, it should surely inflate his ownership. He’s still only $3,400, so even without chasing the ceiling game, he makes sense as a value play from a minutes standpoint against one of the worst defenses in the NBA. This also makes Bradley Beal extremely enticing, even at $9,400. Without Westbrook, he’s posting a 36.7% usage rate and 1.31 FPPM, similar metrics (but not as elite) to what we saw Harden do last season without Westbrook.
Thomas Bryant is the other rock-solid play from the Wizards, as he’s topped 30 minutes in four consecutive games, something DFS players were begging for in 2019-20. He’s averaging over a fantasy point per minute and gets to square off with a cupcake frontcourt.
On the Timberwolves side, as high as I am on Bryant, I’m not so high on Naz Reid. While centers against the Wizards has been a staple for a while in DFS, Reid isn’t getting enough playing time to warrant his price tag. The only T-Wolves player I have passing interest in is D'Angelo Russell. At $7,500, he should see 30-plus minutes and carries a 29.7% usage rate without Karl-Anthony Towns. Stacking Neto and Beal and running it back with Russell could be the differentiator to give you some leverage in this game stack.
Los Angeles Lakers @ San Antonio Spurs
Pace: LAL (16th), SA (12th)
Defensive efficiency: LAL (10th), SA (T16th)
Much like the first time we saw this matchup days ago, LeBron James finds himself questionable once again. He’s been dubbed questionable for every game this season and while he has yet to sit one of them out, it’s always important to prepare for the possibility. It doesn’t need much analysis, but Anthony Davis and Dennis Schroder would quickly become the top priorities on LA, while Kyle Kuzma would also see a bump. If James is in, however, we can attack the Lakers team as we normally do.
On the Spurs side of the ball, Dejounte Murray is still a tad cheap at $6,900 and has 30 combined points, rebounds and assists in three of his four games, while most recently posting 29 points, seven assists and seven boards against these same Lakers. Whether or not LaMarcus Aldridge plays, DeMar DeRozan is another Spurs player that remains too cheap at $7,300. As a Laker-killer throughout his Spurs career, he should be one of the most popular small forwards, especially if Aldridge is out.
Phoenix Suns @ Denver Nuggets (-4.5)
Pace: PHX (30th), DEN (24th)
Defensive efficiency: PHX (3rd), DEN (29th)
If there’s any stud that I want to pay up for on Friday, it’s Nikola Jokic. He’s averaging a career-high 38.3 minutes per game, en route to 24.5 points (career high), 13.5 assists (league-leading, also career high) and 11.5 rebounds (career high). I think you get the theme — he’s having an MVP-caliber start to the season and remains far too cheap. This price becomes even more of a bargain if Jamal Murray ends up out, although the team is hopeful to have him back.
Should he return Friday, $6,700 is a beautiful tag for a player with a 50-60 DK point ceiling, but he’s best left for tournaments. The fact that Michael Porter is out only opens up more usage in this offense, which should funnel directly to Murray and Jokic, heightening their ceilings. This also increases the appeal of Will Barton, who could pick up incremental minutes on the wing. He still profiles more of a cash play, but a safe one at that.
Monte Morris would once again be in line for additional touches with Murray out, but given the guard value elsewhere on the slate, he doesn’t stick out as a necessity if Murray misses (which, once again, is more unlikely than it is likely).
The Suns are coming off of a win Thursday night against the Jazz and travel to the high-altitude city of Denver for the second leg of their back-to-back. While I am not one to chase that narrative to fade players, the Suns don’t have any particular plays that truly pop anyways, making this an easy team to forego on Friday. If pressing to play a Sun, Devin Booker remains a touch too cheap and we know the ceiling is there, as he’s averaging over a fantasy point per minute.
Los Angeles Clippers (-3.5) @ Utah Jazz
Pace: LAC (27th), UTA (T22nd)
Defensive efficiency: LAC (T16th), UTA (11th)
Much like the Suns, the Jazz are on the second leg of a back-to-back, but unlike the Suns, they get the beauty of avoiding travel. That said, against a stout Clippers defense, there’s not a ton to fall in love with on a full slate. If hunting for low-owned value with a stable floor, Royce O'Neale has seen 34-plus minutes in three straight games and has topped 20 DK points in each of those contests. While he doesn’t possess the ceiling you want in tournaments, he certainly does the trick in cash games. You can also get away with Rudy Gobert again until his price rises, as $7,400 on DraftKings is insulting. He’s topped 40 DK points in every game so far this season and leads the team with a 1.31 FPPM clip.
Jordan Clarkson ($4,800) will be included in my breakdowns every slate until he gets a price bump. He’s exceeded salary-based expectations (5.25x) in literally every game this season and at this price, it’s safe to assume that trend will continue.
On the Clippers side, any time Kawhi Leonard is below $10,000, he’s a strong play. He also never carries a massive amount of ownership. His 30.6% usage rate and 1.46 FPPM clip are arguably the best you’ll find at this price range outside of Bradley Beal Friday. His teammate, Paul George, is also viable at $8,700, as he carries a 29.2% usage rate and 1.32 FPPM clip into this game. It’ll be hard for Utah to completely stop both of these studs, so seeing one go off is a realistic expectation. If you’re interested in both of these players, it may be smart to hedge lineups and play two lineups, one with each, on Friday.
Portland Trail Blazers (-4) @ Golden State Warriors
Pace: POR (25th), GS (1st)
Defensive efficiency: POR (30th), GS (24th)
The final game of the night could be a great one, as a four-point spread between two teams that choose to forego defense is always an enticing fantasy environment.
Stephen Curry ($9,600) finds himself sandwiched in a loaded range, but he’s seen 36 and 35 minutes over his last two games respectively, topping 30 raw points in both while attempting 19 total threes. Last game, in fact, was the only game this season he’s attempted less than 10 threes. That upside is always going to cater to DraftKings, but he’s also viable at $9,900 on FanDuel.
Kelly Oubre and Andrew Wiggins are rounding into form, so it’ll be interesting to see what happens to their roles with Draymond Green expected back. While he’s likely to be on a minutes limit, he’ll certainly chip into the rebounding and assist rates for both players while he’s on the court (not that they were incredibly high, anyways).
Damian Lillard is only $200 more than Curry on the Friday slate, which could seriously suppress his ownership. This is always the perfect time to take advantage of Lillard — when he’s both underpriced and underowned. We’ve yet to see a true ceiling game from Lillard this season, but this is a game environment where that is certainly feasible.
If you believe Lillard will underwhelm in this matchup, it would make sense to get exposure to CJ McCollum, as he’s the de-facto number one behind Lillard to pick up any slack. Outside of those two, it’s hard to trust this Blazers team. Jusuf Nurkic has continued to underwhelm, even at a cheap price, while Derrick Jones isn’t viable until sites adjust and score him for being another body on the court.
