Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Tuesday’s seven-game NBA slate once again features plenty of injuries and news that we need to monitor for DFS. Of course, while things will change in a second in the basketball world, use this article to help get your feet wet and get an early look at the slate.
(Make sure to check out all of the great FTN NBA offerings and fantastic NBA Tools, including our FTN NBA Odds Tracker and daily FTN NBA DFS cheat sheets!)
Brooklyn Nets @ Detroit Pistons
BKN -9, total: 232.5
The Nets will continue to be without Kevin Durant, who isn’t eligible to rejoin the team until Friday. Of course, James Harden dominated the show in Brooklyn’s last game against the 76ers, touching the ball 92 times, while possessing the ball for 9.8 minutes. However, Kyrie Irving didn’t play in that game with a minor finger injury, though he’s probable for Tuesday night’s contest. Both stars will dominate the usage in this game, making them top-tier plays. With Durant off the floor this season, Irving is sporting a 31.7% usage rate, while averaging 1.42 fantasy points per minute. Meanwhile, since Harden has joined the Nets, his usage rate is only around 24% with Durant off the floor, but his assist rate is at a massive 30%, while his rebounding rate is at 20%. This is a pretty favorable matchup, as the Pistons are coughing up the sixth-most points per possession off isolation this season (1.00), as well as the eighth-most points per game off the play type (6.8). That obviously bodes well for Harden and Irving, as the two rank first and second, respectively, in isolation points per game (8.0, 5.0).
Durant’s absence will also help DeAndre Jordan, as it forces Jeff Green to play more power forward and less small ball center. That should help Jordan see more consistent minutes and if he plays 26-30 minutes at $4,700 on DraftKings, he’ll make for a very solid value play. He is sporting a 32% rebounding rate and just under a fantasy point per minute with Durant off the floor this season.
For the Pistons, Delon Wright is questionable to play with an ankle sprain but if he’s active, he makes for a very strong mid-range play here. Derrick Rose has been traded to New York, and Detroit has no one else to handle the ball. Over the last 10 games, Wright is averaging a healthy 5.50 seconds per touch, the ninth-highest mark in the league during that span. Meanwhile, with Rose off the floor this season, Wright is averaging just under a fantasy point per minute. This is a good matchup, too, as the Nets have surrendered at least 120 points in nine of their last 10 games, while Brooklyn also ranks 24th against dimers and 26th against the 3-and-D archetype, per our advanced DvP tool. Meanwhile, Jerami Grant is sporting a 27% usage rate with Rose off the floor this year, is coming off a 53-fantasy-point outing and is still far too cheap at $7,000 on DraftKings. The Nets also rank 24th against scorers, 28th against crafty finishers and 28th against skilled centers for the season. Finally, Josh Jackson is in play at $5,700 but would become an awesome play if Wright is ruled out, as he’ll likely play a lot of point guard in this game.
New York Knicks @ Miami Heat
MIA -6, total: 207.5
If you want consistency, look no further than Jimmy Butler right now. Butler has scored exactly 44.5 fantasy points in each of his last three games — here are his stat lines during those games, by points/rebounds/assists: 17/10/9, 14/8/9, 19/8/9. Sounds good to me, no? And in his five games since returning to the lineup, Butler is averaging an impressive 21.0 points, 8.4 rebounds, 8.0 assists and 47 fantasy points per game, while also averaging 78 touches per game during that span. This isn’t the most exciting game for fantasy, but Butler is so involved right now and with Goran Dragic off the floor this season, Butler is posting rebound and assist rates above 20%, while his assist rate is just north of 26%. Bam Adebayo is also coming off a huge game and his price has finally come down, making him more interesting than in day’s past. The Knicks are also a bad defense at defending the pick and roll, coughing up the fifth-most points per game to the roll man (8.8), as well as the fourth-most points per possession (1.20) to the play type. Bam, meanwhile, is averaging 3.9 points per game as the roll man this year, the 12th-most in basketball.
For New York, I really only have interest in Julius Randle. The backcourt was annoying enough and now Derrick Rose has been added to the mix, while RJ Barrett really doesn’t have much of a ceiling. Randle just went off for 56.2 fantasy points in this same matchup the other night and while his volume has come down a bit, he is still 13th in the league in touches per game (82.4), a number that is third among all power forwards/centers.
Houston Rockets @ New Orleans Pelicans
NOP -5.5, total: 225.5
The Rockets are coming off the front end of a back-to-back where they rested both John Wall and Eric Gordon. I imagine both are back in the lineup in this game, though it has already been announced that Victor Oladipo will rest against the Pelicans. This firmly puts both Wall and Gordon in play in this game. With Oladipo off the floor over the last two weeks, Wall is sporting a massive 33.6% usage rate to go along with an insane 35% assist rate, while averaging 1.51 fantasy points per minute. Gordon, meanwhile, is hovering around a 26% usage rate while averaging just under a fantasy point per minute. Wall also continues to attack the basket, averaging 15.1 drives per game this season, good for the 13th-most in basketball, while 8.3 of his points per game have come off drives. That could bode well for him here, facing a Pelicans defense that is surrendering a 66.4% field goal percentage at the rim this season, which is the third-worst rate in basketball. Meanwhile, DeMarcus Cousins is coming off a poor game against the Hornets, scoring just 28 fantasy points in 25 minutes. His price has now come up to $7,400 and while there is more risk than you might believe, Cousins is still worth a look in tournaments, as he’s sporting a 40% rebounding rate with Christian Wood off the floor this season.
New Orleans, meanwhile, is a lot more interesting than usual. If you’ve read or listened to my work, you know that this Pelicans offense has completely tilted me this season, as they’ve slowed down the pace and have played way more in the halfcourt. They also haven’t been using their most dangerous player, Zion Williamson, in the pick and roll very often. For the season, Zion is sporting a 5.5% frequency rate as the roll man out of the pick and roll, which is one of the lowest rates in the entire NBA. However, as of late, the Pelicans are actually using Zion as a ball-handler out of the pick and roll, rather than a roller. That has led to Williamson recording at least four assists in five of his last six games, which is huge considering how inconsistent his peripheral stats have been this season. Adding assists to a player who is already scoring at an elite clip (Zion is 11th among all players with 200 FGA in EFG%) is massive. Of course, getting Zion in transition is obviously where he’s at his best and this could be a spot where the Pelicans can utilize that ability, facing a Houston team that is coughing up 22.2 transition points per contest, the fourth-most in the league. Williamson is leading New Orleans in transition points per game at 4.0, while shooting over 70% off the play type. At $8,200 on DraftKings, Zion is still a fantastic option, especially if he continues to handle the ball a bit more.
As for the rest of this team, Lonzo Ball is shooting the lights out right now, as he’s converted 13-of-22 three-pointers over his last three games. That seems likely to end sooner rather than later and as a result of it, Lonzo has been priced up to $6,300 on DK, his highest price tag in almost a month. Brandon Ingram, meanwhile, is coming off a huge outing, scoring 27 points while adding 12 rebounds, three assists and four blocks. While the blocks aren’t likely to be repeated, Ingram is always a candidate to score 30-plus real points and this could be a spot where he does it, facing a Rockets team that ranks dead last against scorers, per our advanced DVP tool. They are also 22nd against point forwards, too.
Golden State Warriors @ San Antonio Spurs
SAS -1.5, total: 233
These teams just played Monday night and will square off again Tuesday night. Dejounte Murray was incredible, scoring 27 points to go along with 10 rebounds, four assists and eight (yes, eight) steals. It was a career-high in steals for Murray, who is putting together a breakout campaign this season. The peripherals are always there for Murray and after playing 36 minutes on Monday night, the minutes should also once again be there here, as Derrick White will rest, while Lonnie Walker is still out. Murray always has upside for steals, especially in a pace-up spot against the Warriors, who are top-five in pace this season. However, he’s been an awesome rebounder this year, averaging over seven boards per game, while his 12 rebounding chances per game lead the Spurs and rank third among all guards. He is also sporting a solid 24.3% usage rate, 21% rebounding rate and 17% assist rate with LaMarcus Aldridge and Walker off the floor this season, while averaging 1.13 fantasy points per minute. For some inexplicable reason, Murray is just $6,500 on DraftKings ahead of this slate. DeMar DeRozan, meanwhile, is coming off another strong game, scoring 44.5 fantasy points against Golden State. We know he sees a huge bump in usage and production with Aldridge off the floor, as his usage rate jumps up by nearly five% with both LMA and Walker off the court this season. DeRozan and Murray are fantastic options once again, though Murray is closer to a core play.
Stephen Curry is playing at an MVP level right now and I can’t talk you out of playing him on any slate. Over the last two weeks, Curry is sporting a near 32% usage rate, while averaging a gaudy 1.57 fantasy points per minute. Is he my top play of the slate? No, he’s not. But he’s almost always a strong option. Meanwhile, Draymond Green is back to being an awesome fantasy contributor, as the peripherals have been through the roof. Over his last three games, Draymond has scored 42, 50.5 and 40 fantasy points, all while scoring 20 real points. During that same span, Green has a whopping 40 assists, 22 rebounds, eight steals and six blocks. He’s now almost $7,000 on DK which is a little scary considering he has a 12.3% usage rate over the last two weeks. But given the injuries to both Kevon Looney and James Wiseman, Green is back to playing a lot more small-ball five, which is where he is at his best for fantasy.
Orlando Magic @ Portland Trail Blazers
POR -6, total: 221
Orlando is going to be without Evan Fournier, who is nursing a back injury. With Aaron Gordon and Markelle Fultz obviously already out, Nikola Vucevic and Cole Anthony are going to absolutely dominate the usage for the Magic, as the team will likely start Gary Clark, Dwayne Bacon and James Ennis alongside them, all of which are extremely low usage players. With Fournier, Fultz and Gordon off the floor this season, Vucevic is sporting a massive 34.5% usage rate and 34% rebounding rate, while averaging a healthy 1.46 fantasy points per minute. Anthony, meanwhile, is posting a 27.7% usage rate, 21% rebounding rate and 1.02 fantasy points per minute in the split. Vucevic only played 24 minutes in Orlando’s last game as they were getting crushed, which kept him off the floor for the entire fourth quarter. This offense will run entirely through Vucevic, who is averaging 83 touches per game over his last three outings, while Anthony is averaging a healthy 5.88 seconds per touch over his last 10 games, good for the fifth-highest mark in the NBA during that stretch. Portland, meanwhile, is a weak defensive unit that ranks 27th against primary ball handlers on the season, making this a favorable matchup for Anthony.
Of course, with Fournier out, Terrence Ross gets a significant boost. He’s just $5,000 on DraftKings and we know there is upside with him in any game he’ll be required to take more shots. That’ll be the case tonight and with Fournier, Gordon and Fultz off the floor this season, Ross’ usage rate jumps up to 25.4%. He’ll likely still come off the bench, but he will dominate the usage with the second unit and could easily take 17-20 shots in this game. Ross is the third-best option from this team, while the likes of Clark, Bacon and Ennis are all worth looks as value plays. Clark mostly just sits in the corner and attempts spot-up threes, but it wouldn’t shock me to see him get hot here, as Portland is coughing up a 45.1% field goal percentage off corner threes this year, the second-worst mark in the league. Meanwhile, 35% of Clark’s shot attempts this season have come from corner threes, one of the higher marks in basketball.
For Portland, Damian Lillard is probably a touch too cheap at $10,000 on DraftKings. Over his last 10 games, Lillard is averaging 89.1 touches per game (seventh) and 9.5 minutes of possession per game (second), and we know he’ll continue to dominate the usage for the Trail Blazers with CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic sidelined. Meanwhile, Gary Trent has now started seven straight games for Portland and has been productive as of late, averaging 19 points and 30.6 fantasy points per game over his last five outings. The matchup isn’t particularly great for Trent, Robert Covington or Enes Kanter, while the price tags are up on all three players. That makes them all secondary plays, at best, for me.
Philadelphia 76ers @ Sacramento Kings
PHI -4.5, total: 230.5
De'Aaron Fox is playing incredible right now, yet each night I state, “he’s too expensive” or “I prefer other players.” It is safe to say I have not played Fox very often as of late. He is coming off a 54-fantasy point outing against the Clippers and over his last six games, Fox is now averaging 29.7 points, 3.2 rebounds, 7.5 assists and 47 fantasy points per game. The Kings have now won seven of their last eight games and during that eight-game stretch, Fox is averaging a gaudy 95.8 touches per game, the fourth-most in the league, while also averaging 8.2 minutes of possession per game (fifth). I’m scared to say it again, but this really isn’t a great spot for Fox, as Ben Simmons is an elite defender. Fox also does a lot of his production off drives, as he’s averaging 17.9 drives per game (sixth-most), while he’s averaging nearly 12 points per game from drives. The 76ers, meanwhile, are allowing the third-lowest field goal percentage from within four feet of the basket this season (58.9%), making it a tough spot for Fox. Again, it terrifies me, but I’m actually more interested in Buddy Hield in this game. He gets the better individual matchup here against Seth Curry, while the 76ers have struggled to defend shooters off screens, surrendering the most points per game off the play type (7.0). They are also allowing a 45.3% field goal percentage off screens, the fourth-worst mark in basketball. That bodes well for Hield, who is averaging 2.6 points per game off screens this year, the seventh-most in the league. His 19.6% frequency rate off the play type is the third-highest mark in basketball, too.
Harrison Barnes is a safe bet to play 38 minutes and score anywhere between 30 and 45 fantasy points, making him a viable cash play most slates. Meanwhile, Richaun Holmes and Hassan Whiteside are interesting here because of who they are facing. We know Joel Embiid is arguably the most dominant force in the NBA right now and he can get opposing centers into foul trouble. Embiid is drawing a foul on 22% of his shot attempts this season, one of the highest marks in the league. If Holmes gets into foul trouble, Whiteside could play 20-22 minutes, however, his price is now up to $4,400. At that point, maybe Marvin Bagley could be worth a look in tournaments at $4,900 on DraftKings. He still has a 23% usage rate on the season, while averaging just under a fantasy point per minute. Of course, his minutes have been way down because Tyrese Haliburton is closing games over him, while the rookie has done nothing to suggest that he should come off the floor anytime soon. Philadelphia also ranks 21st against shooters and 24th against the bench archetype this season.
For maybe the second time all year long, Embiid is priced appropriately on DraftKings at $10,500. Still, against arguably the league’s worst defense, how can you not love him here? The Kings are allowing 6.0 post-up points per game this season, good for the seventh-most in basketball, while Embiid continues to lead the NBA in post-up points per game, averaging 9.2 per contest. Sacramento also ranks 29th against both scorers and superstars and the MVP candidate should once again have a great game. $8,400 is usually right around the price tag where I pass on Ben Simmons but I’m willing to pay for him at his ceiling in a matchup that presents ceiling potential for all players. We know Simmons thrives in games where he can get out and run and this should be one of those spots. Tobias Harris is pushing $8,000 on DraftKings but again, I think you can chase the upside in this awesome matchup. The Kings are also 29th against crafty finishers, which is one of Harris’ archetypes, while they also are allowing the third-most isolation points per game (7.9).
Boston Celtics @ Utah Jazz
UTA -5.5, total: 220
Mike Conley has once again been ruled out for the Jazz, making it his second straight absence. With Conley out of the lineup last game, Donovan Mitchell touched the ball 90 times, up from his season average of 72.0 per game. He also possessed the ball for 8.0 minutes and with Conley off the floor this season, Mitchell is sporting a 31.4% usage rate, while averaging 1.18 fantasy points per minute. Joe Ingles and Jordan Clarkson both got more run than normal with Conley out last game, both playing 30-plus minutes. Ingles usually handles the ball more when one of Conley or Mitchell are out and with the former off the court this season, his assist rate jumps up to a team-high 19%. Clarkson, meanwhile, has a usage rate near 26% with Conley off the floor and is worth a look in tournaments here. Finally, Rudy Gobert’s price seemingly never moves and I view him as a very solid play whenever he is priced at this range on DraftKings ($7,200). You know he’s grabbing double-digit boards and has now blocked at least two shots in eight of his last 10 contests.
Kemba Walker went 4-for-20 in his last game, but the more encouraging number is 33. Despite recent reports that Walker would be limited to 30 minutes all year, the veteran point guard has now played 32 and 33 minutes over his last two games. I’m sure the injury to Marcus Smart has had an impact on Kemba’s minutes but he won’t be back for this game. Jaylen Brown, however, could return, who has missed the last two games. During that span, Jayson Tatum is sporting a solid 32.1% usage rate, while Walker is right behind him at 31.3%. If Brown is once again ruled out, I think both players once again absolutely dominate the usage, putting both firmly in play, though Walker would be better saved for tournaments.
