Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
With 11 total NBA games Saturday (nine on the main DFS slate in this write-up), a lot of these teams come in on the second leg of a back-to-back, while a lot of them are also playing the same team that they played in their last game, which makes the analysis a bit easier.
As always, the game-by-game breakdown will provide a brief overview of each and every game on the slate, highlighting players that stand out. This doesn’t, however, mean that every player will be touched on. If a player is excluded from the breakdown, that simply means that they didn’t stand out as one that necessarily needs to be in your player pool. Again, this is a first look. Things will change given news throughout the day, but I will do my best to prime you for all of the hypotheticals that we can forecast.
Vegas data listed is the consensus odds from the FTN NBA Odds Tracker.
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Chicago Bulls @ Orlando Magic
CHI -1, total: 223.5
After seeing Nikola Vucevic completely dismantle this Bulls team to the tune of 43 points and 19 rebounds, it’s hard to not go right back to the well, especially considering he’s still sub-$9k across the board. Cole Anthony had a stellar game as well, albeit overshadowed, but checks in once again as an elite play given his minutes security and expanded role with so many rotation players out. He joins Vucevic as part of the underpriced Magic in a smash spot.
Evan Fournier continues to be a great way to get different with Magic exposure, especially if fading Vucevic. He took a back seat to Vuc Friday, but still logged 20 raw points and has a 28.9% assist rate over the last two weeks sans Aaron Gordon, leading the Magic.
For the Bulls, they continue to be a tough team to target. Zach LaVine makes sense again as a runback option given his floor/ceiling combination, but he’s far from a priority on a full slate. A case can be made for Coby White, but his floor is the same amount of production you get from a block of Colby cheese, rendering him a tournament play only.
The one player that I have intrigue in is Patrick Williams. It feels a bit point-chasey, but on the second leg of a back-to-back, there’s a non-zero chance Thaddeus Young could see his minutes scaled back, while both Lauri Markkanen and Otto Porter are long-shots to play. By default, he should be a massive beneficiary at a cheap price.
Toronto Raptors @ Atlanta Hawks
TOR -6, total: 222
The news to monitor in this game is the status of Trae Young. Should Young play, I will have a heap of interest in all three of the Raptors centerpieces (Kyle Lowry, Fred VanVleet, Pascal Siakam). If Young sits, however, I would want to scale back given the blowout potential on top of it already being the second leg of a back-to-back for Toronto. If prioritizing the Raptors, I go VanVleet, Lowry, Siakam despite how each performed Friday.
If anyone in the frontcourt rests for the Raptors, there should be minutes open up for an underpriced Chris Boucher, who finally saw over 25 minutes Friday. He went on to post over 30 fantasy points, showcasing his elite per-minute upside, making him an elite tournament target at $4,400 on DraftKings. He would become a staple in the off chance Siakam or Aron Baynes sits and Boucher draws the start.
For the Hawks, their viability is entirely dependent on Young. If he sits, we would obviously see more Rajon Rondo, who hasn’t scored a point in his last two games. This would be potential chalk that I would feel comfortable fading in favor of Kevin Huerter and Cam Reddish in the backcourt, with Huerter being my favorite of the two.
A Young absence would also affect the frontcourt, as it would make me like Clint Capela less, but John Collins a bit more. In the last game without Young, Collins sported a 25% usage rate and has a 27.6% usage rate without him on the season. He feels a touch cheap if Young were to sit. Capela, on the other hand, relies more upon the pick-and-roll with Young, making him a better correlation with the point guard if he’s active rather than a standalone play if he’s out.
Milwaukee Bucks @ Cleveland Cavaliers
MIL -10.5, total: 227
Similar to the Bulls/Magic game, we were fortunate enough to get this exact matchup Friday night. So, barring anyone resting, it should be easy to break it down.
The Cavs were able to keep the game close for roughly three quarters, which allowed Giannis Antetokounmpo to see 33 minutes en route to a 33-point, 12-rebound outing. Even so, he doesn’t seem to be a popular option, which makes him a great option if you want to spend all the way up and expect the game to script out as it played Friday. If fading Giannis and playing multiple lineups, I will always advocate for getting exposure to Khris Middleton. He was relatively quiet with 15 points and five assists on Friday, but his price under $8,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings leaves a lot of room for a ceiling game.
Bobby Portis is the other Bucks player who garners interest slate-in and slate-out, especially in a game with a 10.5-point spread. Portis has played 20-plus minutes in 12 games this season and over the last three of those, he’s averaged 18.7 points, 6.7 rebounds and a steal per game. For his price, getting this as a mean outcome is a great value, especially understanding that the ceiling is much higher (DraftKings only, as $6,900 on FanDuel is far too expensive for my taste).
For the Cavs, it’s hard to target this team against a Bucks defense that’s starting to figure things out, unless someone is ruled out for rest. The most likely candidate could be Andre Drummond, which would give an astronomical boost to Jarrett Allen. This, however, is purely speculation that there’s a remote possibility, as there haven’t been any implications or reports confirming this. Drummond himself makes for an elite tournament play given his usage rate over 30% if active, especially priced below $8,000 on DraftKings.
Assuming Collin Sexton’s neck injury wasn’t serious enough to hold him out in part of a back-to-back, this backcourt is easier to fade. If he’s out, however, Darius Garland would see a meaningful boost.
San Antonio Spurs @ Houston Rockets
HOU -1.5, total: 222.5
While we saw games without Victor Oladipo and John Wall earlier in the week, it’s Christian Wood who the Rockets will be without Saturday, but not due to rest. Given his ankle injury sustained last game, we should see DeMarcus Cousins step into the starting lineup for the immediate future. We’ve seen this before, but Cousins has been dominant sans Wood this season, posting a 25% usage rate, 22.2% assist rate, 21.2% rebounding rate, and 1.38 DK points per minute. At only $6,300 on DraftKings, he makes for a phenomenal center target and the one that I want in my two-center builds if rostering Vucevic as well. On FanDuel, his $5,900 price tag should make him the chalkiest at the position, for good reason.
This is also an incremental boost for Wall and Oladipo, as Wood was seeing a usage rate north of 25% on the season. While this is a great matchup for both, I prefer the incremental savings on Wall, who has posted a usage rate over 30% on the season. With both active, we should see Eric Gordon take a bit of a back seat, making him a fine fade.
As for the Spurs, this isn’t a matchup I want to go out of my way to attack. With that said, Dejounte Murray is listed as questionable, which would open up more minutes for Derrick White and Patty Mills. Of the two, White would be the runaway favorite for me given his peripheral upside compared to the other two, especially with Lonnie Walker ruled out
LaMarcus Aldridge has also already been ruled out, as Gregg Popovich noted that Wednesday would not be the only game he sits. This gives a nice usage bump to DeMar DeRozan and a minute bump to Jakob Poeltl, making both viable. With so many center options on the slate, Poeltl is the odd man out here, but DeRozan makes for an incredibly strong play in a game that is looking more stackable by the minute. We could also see an incremental bump for Rudy Gay, who’s slated to return. At $4,100, you could do a lot worse considering the lack of frontcourt depth.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Oklahoma City Thunder
MIN -1.5, total: 218.5
Once again, we have a repeat game from the Friday slate. There are, however, things to monitor here, as the status of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Luguentz Dort are up in the air. While both sat out on Friday, it’s entirely possible that they play on Saturday. If this becomes the case, Gilgeous-Alexander would be one of the top mid-tier plays on the slate at only $7,400, especially if Theo Maledon remains out as this would only provide a few additional minutes for him.
If SGA and Dort are both out, we would likely see the same eight-man rotation that we did Friday. This led to five players seeing 30 or more minutes, while Al Horford (29), Mike Muscala (24) and Darius Miller (14) were the only ones to not get there. While some of the Thunder have been priced up, the following players would still be elite per-minute options at their respective (and noted) prices: Hamidou Diallo ($5,900 on both FanDuel and DraftKings), Isaiah Roby ($3,900 on FanDuel, $3,700 on DraftKings), Kenrich Williams ($4,000 on FanDuel, $4,200 on DraftKings), Al Horford ($6,100 on FanDuel, $6,500 on DraftKIngs). As for the rest of the team (Darius Bazley, Justin Jackson), you can get away with fading them for others in their price ranges, especially if SGA, Maledon and Dort are active.
The Wolves are likely without Karl-Anthony Towns again due to health and safety protocols, meaning the usage should continue to funnel through D'Angelo Russell, who sees a 30.2% usage rate without Towns on the season. If you want to save some salary, both Anthony Edwards (26.1% usage rate sans Towns) and Malik Beasley (25.5% usage rate without Towns, 1.00 FPPM) are viable options in this matchup, especially if stacking the game.
Brooklyn Nets @ Philadelphia 76ers
PHI -3, total: 237.5
The ambiguity surrounding the availability of Kevin Durant seems to be reflected in the spread, as the 3-point advantage to the 76ers seems to allude to the thought that he may not be available. If this becomes the case, both Kyrie Irving (+3.8% usage bump without Durant since trade) and James Harden (+2.2% assist rate without Durant since trade) would be in line for added touches and shots. This would also give a potential start to Bruce Brown, who, since the trade for James Harden, sees the highest bump in usage rate (+4.4%) with Durant off of the floor. He would check in as an elite value play.
If Durant plays, we can proceed as normal with this team and frankly, Durant would be my favorite option of the three.
For the Sixers, it’s hard to argue with Joel Embiid in this game if he plays, especially considering the fact that the Nets are allowing more points in the paint (52.9) per game than any other team in the NBA since the Harden trade. This is a phenomenal chance to get Embiid in a low-owned spot as well, considering the attention that both Nikola Vucevic and DeMarcus Cousins are likely to attract.
Outside of Embiid, this is a spot where I finally feel comfortable using both Ben Simmons and Tobias Harris with the team healthy. My preference here is Simmons given the expected pace of this game as well as the heightened potential for defensive peripherals against Kyrie Irving/James Harden/Kevin Durant. On this slate, I want exposure to at least one of the Sixers big three. Which specific one will depend on roster construction, with Simmons being my most likely as I am writing this.
If Embiid sits, however, it would be incredibly hard to get off of both Harris and Simmons. The spread, however, implies that he’s on the better side of his questionable tag.
Golden State Warriors @ Dallas Mavericks
DAL -4, total: 230.5
Oh look, another matchup that we saw within the last two days. The huge takeaway from that game was Kelly Oubre, who shot 14-21 from the field and more notably, 7-10 from three. While it would be ignorant to expect the same outing on Friday, his play has improved as of late. His $7,000 price tag on FanDuel is too high to stomach, but $6,200 on DraftKings is one worth paying.
This is a spot to go right back to Stephen Curry and Draymond Green as well. The Dallas defense continues to be a sieve defensively, making Curry under $10,000 a safe investment. Green will become one of the best per-dollar options on the slate if Eric Paschall sits again, as he and Juan Toscano-Anderson would be some of the only healthy frontcourt members. Speaking of, Toscano-Anderson becomes a viable value once again if Paschall is ruled out.
For the Mavericks, Luka Doncic once again steps into an elite spot after a down game of 26-6-6 last time out against this team. His ownership will likely be lower than it should be given the strong mid-to-upper tier, making him a great spend up if you can get there. If you can’t, you can feel comfortable getting Kristaps Porzingis for $2,900 cheaper after posting a 25-point, five-rebound outing in only 25 minutes in their last meeting. With this being an island game for the Mavericks, he’s a safe bet to see significantly more playing time this time around.
Memphis Grizzlies @ New Orleans Pelicans
NOP -2, total: 227.5
Jonas Valanciunas is expected back for the Grizzlies, albeit potentially in a limited capacity after missing so many games due to the health and safety protocols. If word comes out that he has no restriction, however, he becomes a phenomenal GPP play at only $7,100 given his ceiling, especially if Brandon Clarke sits out.
Ja Morant is also viable once again, as his price tag is still not indicative of the production we should expect. His floor games recently have done a good job suppressing that price, but this is a player that I want to get ahead of the curve on in terms of a ceiling game and a back-and-forth game against fellow sophomore Zion Williamson seems like a good bet to be the spot to do so.
For the Pelicans, it’s been rather hard to target both Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson lately strictly based on the other plays on the slate relative to their prices. Of the two, however, Williamson has been the more appealing target and is once again Saturday. Over his last six games, he’s averaged over 41 DK points per game and over 23 raw points per game. His only knock continues to be the low rebounding totals.
Outside of Zion, however, the only Pelicans player I have interest in is Lonzo Ball. He’s averaged over 33 DK points per game over the last week and a half and hasn’t been priced up with that in mind. Given the tight spread and triple-double upside he brings, $6,000 on DraftKings is a fine price to pay.
Detroit Pistons @ Los Angeles Lakers
LAL -13.5, total: 218
Yawn. The Lakers have been amazing this season, but they’ve been brutal in terms of creating an attractive game environment for DFS, especially against a team like the Pistons.
With both LeBron James and Anthony Davis probable, this team can constitute as a fade on a full slate aside from the two studs. If choosing between the two, my preference continues to be LeBron, as he’s been on a warpath to the MVP award as of late, averaging 25 points, 8.6 assists and 7.4 rebounds over the last five games. The kicker there, however, is the fact that his minutes have climbed to 37 per game in that span. The blowout risk is real here, but James should have his hands in that happening.
Derrick Rose should be back for the second leg of a back-to-back for Detroit, but that frankly doesn’t change the fact that I plan to have absolutely zero exposure to this team on Saturday. If you’re pressing for exposure, Jerami Grant is the only option that I feel semi-comfortable endorsing, as his price is far from indicative of his ceiling. This issue, however, is how realistic we see that ceiling being in this matchup. My thoughts are that it isn’t as realistic as we’d want.
