Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
We have a 10-game NBA DFS slate Wednesday and a heap of injury and back-to-back situations to monitor, which could make for another pre-lock mess that we’ve grown accustomed to in NBA DFS.
As always, the game-by-game breakdown will provide a brief overview of each and every game on the slate, highlighting players that stand out. This doesn’t, however, mean that every player will be touched on. If a player is excluded from the breakdown, that simply means that they didn’t stand out as one that necessarily needs to be in your player pool. Again, this is a first look. Things will chance given news throughout the day, but I will do my best to prime you for all of the hypotheticals that we can forecast.
Vegas data listed is the consensus odds from the FTN NBA Odds Tracker.
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Philadelphia 76ers @ Charlotte Hornets
PHI -7.5, 221.5 total
The matchup is far from ideal, but the Hornets may finally have some relevance on a full slate thanks to injuries. Terry Rozier remains questionable after missing his last game, and P.J. Washington has already been ruled out, opening up opportunity for a lot of pieces here. The obvious choice is LaMelo Ball once again despite the price jump, as he did enough to get there last game even with early foul trouble. If Rozier sits, this paves the way for Devonte' Graham to see more work as well, as he saw over 100 touches last game and is still only $5,500 on FanDuel.
The Washington absence should solidify 30-plus minutes at center for Cody Zeller, while also opening up minutes at the four for Gordon Hayward and Miles Bridges. The matchup is not enticing in the slightest, but all three are worth consideration given their prices. Malik Monk could also stand to benefit, as he’s seen a ton of playing time over the last two games and has been nothing short of spectacular.
On the Philadelphia side, with Joel Embiid off the injury report, we can approach this team as normal. This, frankly, leaves Embiid as the lone priority, even in this matchup. The Hornets rank in the bottom-nine against four of Embiid’s player traits; scorer (25th), rim protector (21st), skilled center (26th), rebounder (29th), making this a smash matchup in what should be an under-owned spot.
Tobias Harris and Ben Simmons are fine, but I can’t consider them anything more than that on a full slate with a healthy rotation.
Indiana Pacers @ Milwaukee Bucks
MIL -8.5, 232.5 total
The Bucks came roaring back from back-to-back loses and dismantled the Blazers, which ultimately led to a floor game from Giannis Antetokounmpo, who saw only 25 minutes in the blowout. While the Bucks are favored by 8.5 here, there’s a good shot that Indiana can keep this close, making Giannis a viable spend-up once again (albeit not necessarily a priority spend).
You never have to twist my arm into playing Khris Middleton. In fact, if you’re playing multiple lineups and have exposure to Giannis, I strongly suggest hedging those lineups with one of Middleton or Jrue Holiday, to guarantee exposure to Milwaukee’s production. If you’re expecting Milwaukee to cover the spread and potentially blow the Pacers out on the second leg of a back-to-back, it would make sense to get exposure to Bobby Portis. He’s seen 20-plus minutes in 11 games this season, recording at least 10 points and five rebounds in every single one, with four double-doubles.
For the Pacers, this is quite the tough draw on the second leg of a back-to-back. Domantas Sabonis and Malcolm Brogdon are always viable, especially if you believe in revenge narratives given Brogdon’s tenure as a Buck. This is a slate, however, where I don’t view them as priorities unless you believe this game will be back-and-forth down to the wire. Jeremy Lamb is a fine filler for your lineup at SG2 on FanDuel or the guard spot on DraftKings, but he, like his teammates, is far from a priority.
My favorite piece from Indiana in tournaments Wednesday is Myles Turner. He should have plenty of chances at the rim to record as many blocks as possible against the likes of Giannis, Holiday and Middleton, giving him massive upside in that department. Knowing that an eight-block performance is well within the range of outcomes, he’s worth consideration in tournaments.
Dallas Mavericks @ Atlanta Hawks
DAL -2, 223.5 total
All eyes will be on Luka Doncic against Trae Young in this game, and rightfully so, as this is an enticing matchup for both players from a DFS perspective. My preference, however, is site-dependent. On DraftKings, you are getting a massive discount on Young, who’s posted a 35.7% usage rate, 42% assist rate and 1.49 DK points per minute over the last two weeks, making him far too cheap at $9,500. On FanDuel, Young is still $1,100 cheaper than Doncic, but given the site’s tendency to reward peripherals (steals and blocks) more, this caters to Doncic, whereas Young sees the three-point bonus on DraftKings. If you want to get different, rostering both in the same lineup is a great way to do so.
Outside of Doncic for the Mavs, it’s hard to fall in love with anyone aside from Kristaps Porzingis given how poorly this team has been playing. His $7,500 price tag on FanDuel feels a touch cheap for the matchup, especially given his 26.2% usage rate over the last two weeks. The other option I like is Dorian Finney-Smith. The Mavs rotation is getting healthy, but he saw 71 total minutes over his last two games, showing that his restriction has been lifted. While he’s not going to be a high-usage player, this is a matchup that caters to his peripheral strengths. At only $3,900 on FanDuel, he gives you cheap exposure to a great game environment.
Outside of Young for the Hawks, my interest lies in the frontcourt in John Collins and Clint Capela, as the Mavericks biggest hole on defense is allowing production around the rim. Both are elite plays on this slate, and neither should garner much ownership.
You can also get away with Kevin Huerter or Cam Reddish with Bogdan Bogdanovic and De'Andre Hunter out. Huerter, however, is the preferred option after seeing 39 minutes last game sans Hunter against the Lakers.
Washington Wizards @ Miami Heat
MIA -8, 229.5 total
While not yet confirmed, it’s entirely plausible (and likely) we see Russell Westbrook sit out on the second leg of a back-to-back like we have all season long. Regardless of opponent, this would make Bradley Beal one of the top overall plays on the slate, as his usage rate sans Westbrook (40.7%) is the top mark in the entire NBA by a significant margin. This would also thrust Ish Smith into a starting role with Raul Neto out, making him an intriguing option under $5,000 on both sites. While Westbrook’s absence opens up more peripheral upside for just about the entire team, the matchup here doesn’t make me excited to roster any of the ancillary pieces, especially on the back end of a back-to-back.
As for Miami, it’s hard to find a center in a better spot than Bam Adebayo, as illustrated below via advanced DvP:
Given his price and the fact that the rotation is starting to get healthy, he could come in lower-owned as well, making him a great tournament option.
While this is a smash matchup, it’s hard to endorse the rest of the Heat rotation with both Goran Dragic and Tyler Herro probable, plus Jimmy Butler’s elevated price tag. Of the three, Herro is my favorite at only $6,000 on FanDuel, especially if word comes out that Dragic will be limited in any capacity.
New York Knicks @ Chicago Bulls
CHI -3, 217 total
This game in general is not one I will be targeting much on a full slate, but the pace-up spot for the Knicks makes this an intriguing spot to target a few Knicks. The obvious choices are Julius Randle and RJ Barrett. The Bulls rank 24th or worse against six of Randle’s seven player traits, making him an elite play given his involvement in this offense.
The other Knicks player to consider is Immanuel Quickley, who has established himself as the best point guard on this team, regardless of whether or not he’s starting. He’s held the highest usage rate (28.5%) on the Knicks over the last two weeks, while carrying a 25.1% assist rate and 1.11 FPPM, making him one of the most elite tournament plays on the slate.
For the Bulls, Zach LaVine is never a bad play, but against a slow, defensive-oriented team like the Knicks, he’s a hard sell in terms of prioritizing the $8-$9k range that’s already full of previously mentioned options. Outside of LaVine, there really isn’t anything to get excited about for the Bulls.
Los Angeles Clippers @ Cleveland Cavaliers
LAC -9, 218 total
One night after a thrilling game against one of the worst defenses in the east, the Clippers turn their attention to one of the better defenses in the conference. That’s not something I thought I would be saying when comparing the Nets and the Cavs, but here we are. With it being the second leg of a back-to-back, it’s always possible we see Kawhi Leonard or Paul George sit. In the case that one does, it vaults the other into must-play territory.
This would also shuffle more usage to the likes of Reggie Jackson, Nicolas Batum and the rest of the Clippers. I only mention Jackson and Batum because frankly, those are the only others who would garner my attention. Priced at under $6,000, Jackson is viable with or without one of the studs sitting considering Patrick Beverley remains out, while Batum would be a strong play should Leonard sit.
For Cleveland, their roster hinges on the availability of Andre Drummond, who missed last game. This paved the way for Jarrett Allen to dominate, recording 23 points, 18 rebounds and five blocks against the Timberwolves. Obviously, the Clippers are a taller task, but at $6,500 on DraftKings, he’s still too cheap in the instance where both Drummond and Larry Nance are out.
The absence of Nance also led to Taurean Prince seeing a 22.2% usage rate, 20% assist rate and 16.7% rebounding rate last game, while Cedi Osman saw a bump off of the bench (1.51 FPPM). Both would be viable, albeit unsexy value plays if Drummond misses to secure frontcourt minutes for them.
Houston Rockets @ Oklahoma City Thunder
HOU -6, 222 total
The Rockets have been one of the best teams in the NBA since the James Harden trade, especially on the defensive end. With that said, however, this is not necessarily a matchup to get overly excited about given the pace and half-court style of play for the Thunder. With Shai Gilgeous-Alexander out, however, it should open up more room for Victor Oladipo to operate, seeing that John Wall is slated to rest. Wall has seen the highest usage rate on the team over the last two weeks (31.9%), which frees up a ton of production for Oladipo, who should operate as the primary ball handler. This could also mean more point guard run for Eric Gordon, which makes him a viable value.
You also never have to twist my arm to consider Christian Wood given his astronomical ceiling, but his usage rate has dropped almost 5% over the last two weeks. He’s still averaging over 1.4 FPPM in that span, making him an elite tournament play.
For the Thunder, the absence of SGA makes Theo Maledon one of the best value options on the entire slate. Maledon has been starting in the absence of George Hill and while only posting 0.87 FPPM over the last week, being forced into 30-plus minutes at his $4,300 price tag on DraftKings should have him waltz into value.
This should also open up minutes for Hamidou Diallo at the shooting guard position, who’s posted a 28.1% usage rate and 25% assist rate over the last week, making him another elite value option with so many minutes up for grabs in the backcourt.
Outside of those two, however, the Thunder team is hard to get behind given how good the Rockets have been defensively. If you trust Luguentz Dort to have an efficient shooting outing, he could be a worthwhile option given how many minutes he plays.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ San Antonio Spurs
SA -8, 224 total
The significant news out of San Antonio for this game is the fact that LaMarcus Aldridge has already been ruled out, yet the DFS sites failed to capitalize and price up his teammates even with the early news. This makes DeMar DeRozan a priority play in one of the best matchups on the slate. Yes, he left a sour taste in everyone’s mouth last week, but he holds a 27.8% usage rate, 36.4% assist rate and 1.33 DKP per minute with Aldridge out this season. At under $7,000, he’s one of the best per-dollar options on the entire slate.
Aldridge’s absence should also open up usage for Dejounte Murray (+1.8% on the season) as well as rebounding opportunities, making him an elite tournament option. Keldon Johnson is another name to consider, as he sees a 2.0% usage bump without Aldridge and the second-highest per-minute boost on the team (+0.15 FPPM). You can consider Jakob Poeltl or Trey Lyles (whoever starts) as a viable value play as well, strictly based on the fact that it’s an elite matchup.
The Timberwolves are never a team that garners much interest, but if you want an option to run it back with, D'Angelo Russell makes the most sense. His 30.4% usage rate without Karl-Anthony Towns paces the team and he should continue to take as many shots as he needs to keep his team in the game. If you want a cheaper option, Anthony Edwards is a great pivot. Over the last week since entering the starting lineup, he’s averaged 1.08 DKP per minute with a 22.8% usage rate while finally seeing his efficiency from the field turn a corner. I would reserve him for tournaments, but he comes with plenty of upside relative to his price.
Phoenix Suns @ New Orleans Pelicans
PHX -3.5, 222.5 total
The Suns are finally healthy with Devin Booker back, which makes them a harder team to target in terms of DFS. Chris Paul is still my preferred option, as even with Booker back, he was able to post 59.3 FanDuel points, his second consecutive game with at least 59 FanDuel points. The absence of Cameron Payne should secure a few extra minutes for the future hall of famer as well, making him a viable mid-tier target. Outside of Paul, however, there isn’t much interest in the Suns team that’s typically a more enticing team from a fan perspective than a DFS perspective.
The same can be said for the Pelicans in this matchup, as the Suns are a top-five team in terms of defensive efficiency and a bottom-five team in terms of pace of play. Both Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson should dominate the usage (both have rates over 28% on the season) and could see another boost in rebounding potential if Steven Adams is out again, but they are far from priorities in this matchup on a full slate. If Adams is out, we could see Jaxson Hayes start once again. He only saw 11 minutes in his last start, and this is an awful matchup, making him a value play that’s easy to fade.
Boston Celtics @ Sacramento Kings
BOS -1.5, 226.5 total
On the second leg of a back-to-back, there’s an outside shot we see Kemba Walker rest for the Celtics, who’s been reported to be on a minutes restriction for the rest of the season. If this becomes the case, Jeff Teague would become a very enticing value play, as he would be the only healthy point guard left on the roster in arguably the best matchup you can ask for. If Walker is active, however, this is a backcourt to avoid given the minutes restriction he finds himself on.
Both Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are viable once again and both of their prices feel a touch cheap given the matchup. If choosing in a vacuum, Tatum takes the cake given his upside, but the $1,000 discount for Brown may make more sense based on lineup construction on Wednesday.
On the Kings side of this game, it’s hard to target any of them outside of large-field tournaments, as De'Aaron Fox, Buddy Hield and Richaun Holmes are all priced at a point where you’d like a ceiling game out of them to feel fully comfortable.
Marvin Bagley comes in as my favorite option on the Kings yet again, as DraftKings refuses to price him above $6,000, regardless of recent production. His $5,500 price tag leaves a ton of room for ceiling upside, unlike his teammates.
