Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Thursday 10/17)
MLB Dream
The Saturday NBA DFS slate got a bit smaller with a pair of games postponed, but three of the remaining five games have implied totals north of 230 points, ensuring us of an action-packed Saturday.
As always, the game-by-game breakdown will provide a brief overview of each and every game on the slate, highlighting players that stand out. This doesn’t, however, mean that every player will be touched on. If a player is excluded from the breakdown, that simply means that they didn’t stand out as one that necessarily needs to be in your player pool. Again, this is a first look. Things will change given news throughout the day, but I will do my best to prime you for all of the hypotheticals that we can forecast.
Vegas data at the time of writing listed is the consensus odds from the FTN NBA Odds Tracker.
(Make sure to check out all of the great FTN NBA offerings and fantastic NBA Tools, including our FTN NBA Odds Tracker and daily FTN NBA DFS cheat sheets!)
Golden State Warriors @ Charlotte Hornets
GS -2, total: 232.5
It’s been a while since we’ve seen the Hornets on a slate, as this is their first game since last Sunday, but it’s a good spot to target this team given the game environment. With Devonte' Graham out, this should continue to open up more volume for both LaMelo Ball and Terry Rozier, as both produce at least 1.09 DKP/min with Graham out this season. Of the two, Ball feels safer, even at his price, but I won’t argue with either.
This should also open up more playing time for Malik Monk. While his per-minute production marks on the season look rather disappointing (0.70 DKP/min without Graham), he’s a 30-minute candidate off of the bench, giving him merit at his price tag. Gordon Hayward is also viable at his price assuming he returns to the lineup, but I prioritize the two guards ahead of him on Saturday. This is also a matchup where we could see more PJ Washington given Golden State’s tendency to run a small-ball lineup, so there’s certainly some intrigue there at $5,300 on DraftKings, as he averages close to a fantasy point per minute with Graham out.
For the Warriors, this team will continue to be a simple one to break down, as it’s typically Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, or bust for me. Curry never needs much analysis, as he’s averaged 35 points, six assists, and 5.2 rebounds over the course of the month while shooting 45.5% from three. Green, on the other hand, has posted a 38.5% assist rate over the last two weeks while averaging 21.11 DKP/min.
If you want to look elsewhere on the Warriors, Kelly Oubre is still cheap enough to carry a respectable ceiling relative to his price and has averaged 1.01 DKP/min over the last two weeks, but I’d leave Andrew Wiggins alone on this slate.
Miami Heat @ Los Angeles Lakers
LAL -3.5, total: 211
While this game carries a ton of intrigue from the perspective of a basketball fan, it’d hard to have the same level of excitement from a fantasy standpoint seeing that the implied total is more than 20 points below every other game on the slate. Because of that, I’ll be avoiding stacking this game and opting for one-offs instead.
Jimmy Butler is my favorite overall option on this slate, as he’s averaged 19.6 points, 10.0 rebounds, and 9.8 assists over his last five games and is coming off of yet another triple-double. His price is still too cheap for his production, especially if we’re expecting 36-plus minutes against LeBron James. Bam Adebayo is also coming off a triple-double and should benefit against a Lakers’ interior without Anthony Davis, making him a viable option if you want Heat exposure but choose to fade Butler.
Kendrick Nunn and Tyler Herro have some intrigue as long as Goran Dragic remains out, as both should see over 30 minutes and are volume-heavy players. Of the two, I prefer the peripheral upside of Herro, but you can’t argue with the $1,000 savings on Nunn.
For the Lakers, LeBron remains too cheap given his 35.1% usage rate, 42.9% assist rate, and 1.59 DKP/min clip without Davis and Dennis Schroder. He’s easily one of the top overall options on the slate, but I cannot consider him a must-play given the game environments elsewhere.
Talen Horton-Tucker and Alex Caruso are good bets to see at least 25 minutes yet again with Schroder ruled out, with Horton-Tucker being my preferred option for $300 cheaper, as he carries more upside in terms of both volume and peripheral upside. He should get another boost if either Markieff Morris and/or Kyle Kuzma (who are both probable) are unable to suit up.
Sacramento Kings @ Chicago Bulls
SAC -2.5, total: 232.5
When factoring in the game environment and injury news, this game has a massive amount of fantasy appeal, even with the Bulls on the second leg of a back-to-back.
De'Aaron Fox is my top overall play in his game, as his $8,000 price tag simply feels too cheap on DraftKings, especially considering his 29.7% usage rate, 38.3% assist rate, and 1.30 DKP/min clip over the last two weeks. This is a pace-up spot against an awful transition defense, which is a matchup Fox should have no issue exploiting.
With Harrison Barnes and Richaun Holmes both questionable, we could potentially see more playing time for Nemanja Bjelica, Marvin Bagley and Tyrese Haliburton, all of whom become viable options strictly given the matchup. The potential absence of Richaun Holmes would also thrust Hassan Whiteside into consideration and while volatile in terms of minutes, he’s posted 1.43 DKP/min over the last week and gets one of the best matchups a player of his caliber could ask for.
As hard as it is to argue with the matchup, I still don’t have a ton of interest in the Bulls outside of their core players. Zach LaVine will continue to be a rock-solid option, but at his price tag, a decision needs to be made about who you’d rather roster between him and the likes of Damian Lillard, Bradley Beal and Russell Westbrook. With that said, he’s a safe bet for 20-plus field goal attempts and a handful of peripherals.
If targeting any other Bulls players, Wendell Carter is my favorite, even with his minutes volatility. At $5,100, his floor is somewhat baked into the price, and his upside is astronomical, as the Kings rank dead-last in the NBA against rebounders. Coby White also carries upside, but his downside is too risky given other players in his price range on this slate.
Phoenix Suns @ Memphis Grizzlies
PHX -4.5, total: 226
While this game doesn’t carry the lowest total on the slate, it’s by far the least enticing from a fantasy perspective. Both teams are coming into this game on the second leg of a back-to-back and one of these teams (the Suns) runs at a methodically slow pace and is one of the best defensive units in the NBA.
While Ja Morant and Jonas Valanciunas certainly have upside in a tournament, this is not a spot that I want to target either of them, especially in cash games. If Dillon Brooks misses his second consecutive game, there’s some merit to considering both Grayson Allen and Desmond Bane. Bane, of the two, is my preferred option given the $1,400 discount and fact that he seems locked into minutes in the mid-20s at the least.
Kyle Anderson would also see a bit of a bump as he could siphon some of the vacated touches. His play-style is less affected by a pace-down spot than someone like Morant, which makes him a fine mid-tier option in tournaments.
For the Suns, all three of Devin Booker, Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton are priced cheap enough to warrant consideration, with Ayton being my favorite in a matchup against a more traditional center, especially coming off of a 16-point, 16-rebound double-double Friday evening. None of the three, however, is a must on a slate with so many other options.
Whoever starts between Jae Crowder and Frank Kaminsky would also be worth a shot, with Crowder possessing more security in minutes (should he start).
Washington Wizards @ Portland Trail Blazers
POR -3.5, total: 242
The last game on the slate carries not only the highest Vegas total, but also the most fantasy appeal. Both defenses have been absolutely atrocious this season and all three of the studs in this game feel a touch underpriced.
On the Wizards side, picking between Russell Westbrook and Bradley Beal in this game is like pulling hairs. Both have a ton of merit, as Beal holds the highest usage rate in the NBA and leads the league in scoring, while Westbrook’s triple-double upside is some of the highest on the slate. Between the two, Westbrook is my preferred option given the increased defensive peripheral upside in a matchup with Damian Lillard, but if fading Westbrook, I strongly advise playing Beal.
The center position is one to avoid in Washington as it continues to operate as a rotating door, but there’s merit on the wings in Rui Hachimura and Davis Bertans. The latter, in particular, has really come around as a shooter over the last five games, averaging 15 points per game while shooting 55.3% from three.
For the Blazers, it’s hard to argue with Damian Lillard, even at $10,600. While he’s still been rather volatile, he holds a 36.2% usage rate, 43.2% assist rate, and averages 1.55 DKP/min over the last two weeks. If not playing Lillard but chasing exposure to this offense, your best bets are either Gary Trent (who’s averaged 19.8 points per game over his last six games with a usage rate over 20% in the last two weeks) or Enes Kanter, who has some of the highest rebounding upside on the slate.
Robert Covington is another solid piece from this team, as he’s a virtual lock for 32-plus minutes and has averaged over seven rebounds per game while shooting 45.8% from three over the last six games.
