Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Tuesday was supposed to feature a seven-game DFS slate around the NBA, but one game was postponed, making it a six-gamer. Anyway, there are plenty of injuries to monitor on this slate and a handful of players that have already been ruled out, impacting the fantasy potential of plenty of players.
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Denver Nuggets @ Boston Celtics
BOS -2.5, total: 220.5
Per usual, Denver will be a bit shorthanded for this game. Paul Millsap, Gary Harris, Will Barton and PJ Dozier have already been ruled out, while Monte Morris is questionable with a shoulder injury. Let’s get the obvious out of the way first, shall we? Nikola Jokic is once again a very good play, as he’s coming off another triple-double against the Lakers and will once again dominate the usage. Jokic leads the NBA in touches per game (102.0), while his 18.8 rebounding chances per game are good for seventh-most in basketball. And if you take Millsap and Barton off the floor, Jokic’s usage rate climbs to 32.3%, while also sporting a 37% rebounding rate, 25% assist rate and a 1.71 fantasy points per minute average. The Celtics can certainly be had in the post, as they are coughing up 6.5 post-up points per game this season, the sixth-most in the league, while Jokic trails only Joel Embiid in post-up possessions (10.9) and points (5.6) per game this season. This could also be a sneaky spot for Jamal Murray, who has underwhelmed this season but has flirted around the 40 fantasy-point mark in each of his last two games. He gets a bump with Millsap and Barton out, seeing a 3.5% usage bump in the split. However, he’d also get an additional bump if Morris gets ruled out. The Celtics, meanwhile, have been terrible against the handoff, which is a huge part of Denver’s offense. Boston is coughing up the second-most points per game (6.8) and most points per possession (1.12) off the play type this season, while Murray is averaging 3.1 points per game off handoffs, good for the second-most in the league. Jokic and Murray could correlate very, very well.
Meanwhile, there could be some potential value on Denver here. Michael Porter has tremendous upside and is averaging 1.11 fantasy points per minute with Barton and Millsap off the floor this season. His minutes can be all over the place due to his defensive issues, but Denver might not be able to sit him for too long with how short-handed they’ll be. JaMychal Green should also get additional run here and is sporting a solid 20% usage rate and massive 31% rebounding rate with Millsap and Barton off the court. Both are viable options here, while Facundo Campazzo would be worth a look as a value option of Morris sits. He played 25 minutes last game, despite Morris playing 30 and was productive, scoring 15 points with four assists.
For the Celtics, Jayson Tatum is coming off a putrid game, scoring just six points in 3-of-14 shooting. Things should definitely be better here, facing a Denver team that is allowing the highest field goal percentage in basketball from within four feet of the hoop, while Tatum leads Boston in drives per game on the season (13.1). Denver also ranks dead last against point forwards this season, which is one of Tatum’s archetypes. Meanwhile, Kemba Walker could be worth a look in tournaments because no one will have any confidence playing him. However, he should play 30-32 minutes and over his last 10 games, Walker is sporting a healthy 27.4% usage rate, which is behind Tatum (29.5) and Jaylen Brown (29.4), but the fact remains that this offense is a three-man show right now, especially with Marcus Smart out. Finally, if Daniel Theis (finger) sits out, Tristan Thompson could be a viable cheap center option. He is sporting a 39% rebounding rate with Theis off the floor this season.
New Orleans Pelicans @ Memphis Grizzlies
PK, total: 231.5
Zion Williamson continues to score the basketball at will. He’s now shot at least 50% from the field in nine of his last 10 games, while scoring at least 20 points in eight of those contests. The peripherals have been a bit lacking over the course of the season, but they have been better as of late, as he is averaging 5.3 rebounds and 4.3 assists per game in February to go along with more than 25 points per game. He is also averaging 1.3 blocks and nearly a steal per game this month and is still priced very fairly for a decent matchup with the Grizzlies, a defense that ranks just 21st against scorers this season. Brandon Ingram is also perfectly fine at his price and over his last six games, he is averaging a strong 26 points and 44.8 fantasy points per game. He leads the Pelicans in scoring off screens this season, while the Grizzlies are allowing the fourth-worst field goal percentage (43.8%) and third-most points per possession (1.12) to shooters off screens. However, no one else on this team stands out too much. Lonzo Ball is a bit too expensive at $6,700 on DraftKings, while Steven Adams doesn’t offer a consistent enough floor/ceiling combination.
Ja Morant is my favorite of the Grizzlies here. The Pelicans have struggled to defend the rim this season, surrendering the fifth-highest field goal percentage from within four feet of the basket (66.0%). That is good for a player like Morant, who is averaging 19.4 drives per game this season, good for the fourth-most in basketball, while just over 10 of his points per game have come off drives. New Orleans also ranks 24th against crafty finishers according to our advanced DVP, while also ranking 23rd against dimers. Jonas Valanciunas has been great lately, but Brandon Clarke is also back for Memphis, which could lead to JoVal going back to 26-28 minutes, rather than 30-32. He still has upside, of course, but there is more risk associated with him now.
Toronto Raptors @ Milwaukee Bucks
MIL -5, total: 235
Although he finally has been priced up to $11,000 on DraftKings, Giannis Antetokounmpo remains an elite option. The Bucks will once again be without Jrue Holiday for this game and over the last week, Giannis has been fantastic, averaging 1.72 fantasy points per minute while sporting a 33% usage rate, 35% rebounding rate and 14% assist rate. He continues to haul in a ton of boards, averaging 11.5 per game for the season, while his 17 rebounding chances per game are good for 13th-most in the league. Giannis is also converting a whopping 67.4% of those chances, which is one of the highest marks among qualified players. Feel free to put him into your Tuesday lineup. Meanwhile, Khris Middleton has underwhelmed over the last two games but is still a versatile player with a very high floor. Over the last week, Middleton is sporting a near 27% usage rate and 21% assist rate, while averaging 1.15 fantasy points per minute. An $8,000 DK price tag is very, very appealing, especially with Holiday out. However, the rest of this team isn’t too exciting. You can probably take a shot on a $3,800 Bryn Forbes, who has been in the starting lineup and taking plenty of shots.
For the Raptors, I still like the $7,400 price tag on Kyle Lowry, as the floor is rock solid. This is a nice pace-up game for Toronto, and this Bucks team gives up plenty of points from three, as 38.5% of the points scored against Milwaukee this season have come from beyond the arc, the fourth-highest rate in the league. That could bode well for Fred VanVleet, too, who is averaging nearly nine three-point attempts per game. Meanwhile, Chris Boucher is very risky here, though he normally is. His minutes came back down in the last game and now faces Giannis, a player that could draw a handful of fouls on Boucher, who is priced at $6,600. That price tag is fair if you guaranteed me that Boucher would play 25-30 minutes, but we just don’t know that for certain right now, which means Boucher is also a GPP target at best.
Los Angeles Lakers @ Minnesota Timberwolves
LAL -6.5, total: 222
Just play LeBron James. The Lakers have shut down Anthony Davis for the next few weeks with a calf strain, which makes LeBron an easy DFS play for the foreseeable future, and especially this game. With Davis off the floor this season, James is sporting a 33.4% usage rate, 23% rebounding rate and 23% assist rate, while averaging a strong 1.48 fantasy points per minute. LeBron should do whatever he wants here, facing a bad Minnesota defense that is coughing up a league-leading 22.9 transition points per game. James, meanwhile, is averaging 5.9 points per game off transition on the year, good for the fourth-most in basketball. And over his last five games, LeBron is averaging 27.2 points, 8.8 rebounds and 9.4 assists per game. Meanwhile, Kyle Kuzma at $7,000 on DraftKings would scare me if both Davis and LeBron were out, let alone just Davis. He’s been much better as of late and does see a near-3% usage bump with Davis off the floor this season, while averaging just under a fantasy point per minute in the split. I think I’d rather gamble on Montrezl Harrell at $6,200, who is sporting a solid 23% rebounding rate, 20.6% usage rate and 0.99 fantasy points per minute with Davis off the floor.
Minnesota will remain without D'Angelo Russell for this game and even if Davis played in this game, I’d still have interest in Karl-Anthony Towns at $9,300. The Lakers defensive rating drops by about four points with The Brow off the floor this season, while I don’t worry about Harrell or Marc Gasol when it comes to defending KAT. In three games since returning to the lineup, Towns is averaging a strong 21 points, 9.6 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 1.3 blocks and 1.3 steals per game. Outside of KAT, Anthony Edwards is a solid option at $6,000 on DraftKings. He’s starting at the four, resulting in some more rebounds. Edwards is still sporting a solid 27.5% usage rate with Russell off the floor this season, while averaging just under a fantasy point per minute in the split.
Portland Trail Blazers @ Oklahoma City Thunder
POR -6, total: 223.5
I understand he hasn’t had the consistent 50- to 60-point games since CJ McCollum has been injured, but Damian Lillard should not be under $10,000 on DraftKings right now. Over the last 10 games, Lillard is third in the NBA in average time of possession per game (9.2), while also averaging nearly 83 touches per game during that span. Meanwhile, only Embiid and Luka Doncic are sporting a higher usage rate during that stretch than Lillard (33.2%), while he’s posting a usage rate just north of 33% with McCollum off the floor this season. I also think Gary Trent is a touch too cheap at $5,700 on DraftKings. Trent has now started each of Portland’s last 11 games and during that span, he is averaging a solid 19.7 points in 36.2 minutes per game. The Thunder are surrendering the sixth-most points per game to opposing shooters off screens this season (5.3), while Trent is 11th in the NBA in points per game off screens (2.2). I also think Enes Kanter remains worthy of attention here, despite the fact that he didn’t close out Portland’s game the other night against Dallas. Hopefully that doesn’t happen again here, as Kanter faced a Thunder defense that is allowing the fourth-most points per game to the post (6.7), as well as the most points per possession (1.09) and the worst field goal percentage (57.8%) off the play type. That obviously bodes well for Kanter and I think he could get back on track here.
The Thunder, meanwhile, remain depleted, as they’ll continue to be without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, George Hill and Theo Maledon for this game. Over the last two weeks, Al Horford is sporting a 26.5% usage rate to go along with a 20% rebounding rate, 19% assist rate and 1.33 fantasy points per minute. Horford still isn’t a lock to play 30-plus minutes but given his recent usage and role, he can still be worthy of your roster spot in 28 or 29 minutes, especially against a weak Portland defense. We’ve also seen Hamidou Diallo take on more of a ball-handling role with Oklahoma City so depleted. He’s right around a 22% usage rate over the last two weeks and should play 30-plus minutes once again against a Blazers team that ranks 27th against primary ball handlers and 22nd against dimers on the season, per advanced DvP.
Brooklyn Nets @ Phoenix Suns
PHO -4.5, total: 232.5
This is the second end of a back-to-back for the Nets, so just make sure that Kyrie Irving and James Harden both play. Assuming they do, both are extremely strong options with Kevin Durant still sidelined for Brooklyn. Harden has become the true point guard for this team and is suddenly fourth in the league in average time of possession per game (8.7 minutes) and third in touches per game (95.0) over the last 10 games. Over the last two weeks, Harden is sporting a massive 32% assist rate to go along with a 25% rebounding rate and 1.51 fantasy points per minute, while Irving leads the team with a 30.7% usage rate during that stretch. Phoenix has been a very good defense this season but given the usage both of these players are seeing right now, matchup really doesn’t matter. DeAndre Jordan was available to play on Monday night but came off the bench. Jeff Green started at center but if Jordan returns to the starting lineup, I don’t hate him as a value option here.
For Phoenix, Devin Booker is playing great basketball right now, averaging 28.3 points, 5.7 assists, 4.8 rebounds and 44.3 fantasy points per game over his last six outings. The peripherals have been much better as of late, while the scoring has been fantastic. Feel free to look to him, Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton in this juicy spot. The Nets are still a putrid defense and rank 26th against scorers and 27th against crafty finishers on the year, which bodes well for Booker. Ayton, meanwhile, hasn’t been as good lately with Booker getting hot but this is still a very intriguing matchup. Brooklyn ranks dead last against rebounders on the year, while also allowing a 53.2% field goal percentage to the post, the fourth-worst rate in basketball. Finally, Paul should continue to have a very strong floor in this spot, while there is a ceiling to be had, especially if the Suns play faster in this game.
