Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
There are six games in the NHL Tuesday, and there isn’t a huge favorite on the docket. Additionally, all six games have a 5.5 over/under total. Here’s a quick-hit primer to help with DFS and seasonal fantasy lineups.
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New York Islanders (-129) at Buffalo Sabres
Predictably, after missing half a month of action and hardly being able to practice, the Sabres struggled against the Islanders Monday. Buffalo generated just four high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes, and their Eric Staal–Taylor Hall–Sam Reinhart line was especially ineffective with a 37.0 Corsi For percentage. Star center Jack Eichel missed the scoresheet entirely and has just two tallies and an unsustainably low 4.9 shooting percentage this season, so there’s buy-low potential there.
The Islanders have been turning to Brock Nelson, Jordan Eberle and Michael Dal Colle with more regularity of late, and the trio generated three high-danger scoring chances at five-on-five Monday and is now up to 17.47 per 60 minutes for the campaign. There’s potential for positive regression to their respectable 3.27 goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five. It’s also worth noting New York hasn’t lost in regulation in seven games and sports a 4-0-3 record to climb into third place in the East Division. Ilya Sorokin is expected to start in net for the Islanders, and he’ll likely be a popular DFS target, just beware of his underwhelming start to the campaign. The Russian rookie has an .871 save percentage and 3.65 GAA with an 0-2-1 record.
Washington Capitals at Pittsburgh Penguins (-125)
The two clubs are tied for fourth place in the East Division, but they have been trending in opposite directions of late. Washington has lost four straight, whereas Pittsburgh has pulled off consecutive victories and owns an active 7-3-1 record entering Tuesday’s contest. Five Penguins recorded multi-point showings in Pittsburgh’s 6-3 win over the Capitals with Bryan Rust and Jake Guentzel leading the way with three points each. Additionally, while Vitek Vanecek was treading water for a long time, he’s allowed three goals or more in each of his past six outings for an underwhelming .886 save percentage and 3.77 GAA. True No. 1 netmider Ilya Samsonov can’t return soon enough for Washington.
Washington’s best line Sunday was Evgeny Kuznetsov, T.J. Oshie and Jakub Vrana. The trio attempted 13 shots with three being of the high-danger variety. They’re also split across Washington’s two power-play units, which provides sneaky exposure to both. Shifting to the Penguins, much has been made about Evgeni Malkin’s poor start. He’s yet to post a multi-point showing through 13 contests, but he’s been slightly better of late with three tallies and four helpers through the past 10 games. Finally, it’s definitely worth noting that there’s high-scoring potential here. Washington and Pittsburgh respectively rank third and fourth worst in the league in goals against per 60 minutes, and the Penguins also have the worst team save percentage in the NHL.
New Jersey Devils at New York Rangers (-139)
Burying the lead, the Rangers have lost three straight and only scored two during the slump, and Mika Zibanejad has now gone 10 consecutive games without a goal with just a single assist during the stretch. He’s still receiving huge minutes and is a definite, buy-low candidate over the coming weeks. Potentially even more concerning is Artemi Panarin’s (lower body) status. He skated on his own Monday and is questionable at best for Tuesday’s game. It’s also worth noting that K'Andre Miller is also questionable with an undisclosed injury.
New Jersey has been off since Jan. 31, and unable to practice much, either. It puts the Rangers in a favorable spot , but as noted, there’s not a lot to like about their current form. Moreover, the Devils haven’t been a doormat with just 24 goals allowed through nine games. However, allowing the second most high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes, is a huge concern. As a result, it’s probably safe to view potential New Jersey starter Mackenzie Blackwood as a high-risk, high-reward option in net.
Nashville Predators at Dallas Stars (-160)
With both teams entering in poor form, it will be interesting to see how this plays out. Dallas has lost seven of its past eight games, whereas Nashville enters with an active 2-6 record. They’re sixth and seventh in the Central Division, respectively. It’s definitely worth noting that the Stars swept the first two-game series of the season by a combined 10-2 score, but that was also almost an entire month ago, and both clubs have been doing a lot of losing since then.
Dallas center Roope Hintz is a game-time decision with an undisclosed injury, and his absence would be a notable blow. He’s clicked with linemates Denis Gurianov and Jason Robertson for an impressive 5.83 goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five this season. It’s also worth noting the Predators have only scored eight goals through five games with Ryan Johansen (upper body) out of the lineup.
Colorado Avalanche at Vegas Golden Knights (-110)
The two Western Division juggernauts met Sunday, with Vegas taking a 1-0 victory, and Marc-Andre Fleury improving to an elite 7-1 record with a .944 save percentage and 1.38 GAA for Vegas. The big news heading into Tuesday’s tilt are all the injuries for the two clubs. Colorado captain Gabriel Landeskog and 22-year-old defenseman Samuel Girard are both on the COVID-19 protocol list, whereas star defensemen Cale Makar (upper body) and Shea Theodore (undisclosed) are both considered game-time decisions for their respective teams. Maker and Theodore are both producing at a point-per-game pace and quarterback their club’s No. 1 power-play unit, so their statuses will need to be monitored.
The only team in the league with fewer goals against per hour in the league than Colorado is Vegas, so while both clubs have deep lineups and plenty of offensive weapons, another tidy defensive game could be in the cards Tuesday. Additionally, the salary commitments are significant, so this could prove to be a risky contest to be overexposed to. As highlighted, it’s the closest game on the docket in regards to the odds, and as noted, both teams have been solid defensively.
Minnesota Wild (-132) at Los Angeles Kings
Minnesota has been off since Feb. 2, whereas the Kings last played Feb. 11 — a commanding 6-2 win over the Sharks. So, it’s been a bit of a layoff for both clubs. Los Angeles is in last place in the Western Division and is allowing a healthy 3.25 goals and 11.34 high-danger scoring chances per hour for the campaign. The Wild are quite the opposite. They’ve generated 11.75 and allowed just 7.27, which rank seventh and first in the league, respectively. Minnesota is also 3-1 against Los Angeles this season.
It will be important to keep tabs on who is back in the lineup for the Wild, as they had 12 players in COVID-19 protocol, including potential starting netminder Cam Talbot who’s been solid this season with a .920 save percentage and 2.40 GAA through six appearances. Kaapo Kahkonen hasn’t been as strong with .903 and 2.87 marks, but he would be worth considering if Talbot doesn’t suit up. This should prove to be a favorable spot for Minnesota, so double-checking the Wild’s line combinations before puck drop will be important. In particular, a Marcus Johansson–Jordan Greenway–Kirill Kaprizov trio could be a snaky low-priced stack.
