Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Happy Easter, everyone. I hope everyone has a great day with their family and friends and there is no better way to do that then sit around and watch some basketball and play NBA DFS, am I right? There are some afternoon games Sunday, but our focus remains the four-game main slate in the NBA Sunday evening.
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Grizzlies @ 76ers preview
PHI -3.5, total: 225
Joel Embiid returned from a 10-game absence Saturday, scoring 24 points and adding eight rebounds, two assists and three blocks in 28 minutes. We’ll see if he is active for the second leg of a back-to-back, but assuming he is, this is a tremendous spot for him. The Grizzlies are coughing up the most points per possession (1.12) and highest field goal percentage (58.3%) to the post this season. Embiid, meanwhile, leads the NBA in both post-up points (9.8) and possessions (9.0) per game on the year. His 34.7% frequency rate off the play type also leads the league, making this a very advantageous matchup for Embiid. If the 76ers decide to sit Embiid, Tobias Harris and Ben Simmons would certainly get a bump, and you’d feel much better about paying the price tag on both players. Simmons has been under 40 fantasy points in each of his last eight games and is still $8,900 on DraftKings, despite Embiid also being back in the lineup.
For the Grizzlies, Ja Morant has been very inconsistent of late, and this definitely isn’t the best matchup in the world. The first time he faced Philadelphia, Morant scored just 26.5 fantasy points, so if I’m playing anyone from Memphis here, it is going to be Jonas Valanciunas. Yes, the matchup takes a hit with Embiid back, especially because the All-Star center is so good at drawing fouls. In fact, Embiid is drawing a shooting foul on 21% of his shot attempts this season, good for the 10th-highest rate in the league. And considering Valanciunas was just limited to 22 minutes last game because he picked up five fouls, that is certainly a concern. However, we know the upside he presents and against Embiid, this could be a spot where he logs up to 34 minutes, which is huge considering he averages 1.32 fantasy points per minute for the season. Meanwhile, this is actually a good matchup for Dillon Brooks. The 76ers are allowing the second-most points per game to opposing shooting guards this season (24.7), while also coughing up the second-most points per game to shooters off screens (6.0). However, Brooks’ lack of a ceiling in the minutes department has certainly been frustrating, which makes him more of a tournament play for me.
Warriors @ Hawks preview
GSW -2, total: 225.5
Trae Young sat Friday with a sore knee and is now questionable for Sunday’s contest. If I had to guess, I’d say he suits up here, but we obviously need to monitor this news. With Young out of the lineup on Friday, Brandon Goodwin entered the starting lineup and played 28 minutes, while Bogdan Bogdanovic continues to start and play more than Kevin Huerter. Over his last three games, Bogdanovic has been great, averaging 25.3 points, 6.0 assists, 5.3 rebounds and 5.3 triples per game. With John Collins already out of the lineup, Bogdanovic’s minutes have been up, as Collins has been playing plenty of small forward this season. Bogdanovic has logged 37, 45 (OT) and 33 minutes over his last three games, scoring at least 45 fantasy points in all three contests. With both Young and Collins off the floor this season, he is sporting a 26.5% usage rate, while averaging 1.06 fantasy points per minute. Lou Williams would also be firmly in play at $5,500 if Young were ruled out. Meanwhile, Clint Capela is very expensive at $8,800 on DK and if this were a larger slate, I might feel differently about him. However, with just four games and Capela being in a great spot, I still love him. Golden State is surrendering the most points per game off putbacks this season (7.3), while Capela is averaging 4.1 putback points per game, good for the third-most in basketball. Finally, Danilo Gallinari is also questionable and if he can’t play, it will only solidify the minutes for Bogdanovic and Williams, while Solomon Hill would likely start again and be worth a look as a value play.
Stephen Curry sat Friday with that bruised tailbone, but he’s good to go for this game. When we last saw Curry, he went off for 36 points, 11 rebounds and three assists. In a great matchup like this, Curry profiles as one of the top plays of the entire slate, especially in a game that should be played at a relatively fast pace. Golden State could be shorthanded, however. Eric Paschall has already been ruled out, while Draymond Green remains questionable with a finger injury. If Green can’t go, Juan Toscano-Anderson would be in line for more minutes at power forward, though his usage rate is under 10% with both players off the floor this season, so don’t expect a ton of shot attempts or anything. There is no chance I am paying $8,000 for Andrew Wiggins, especially with Curry in the lineup, so that is an easy avoid for me. I’d much rather take the $1,200 savings and go with Kelly Oubre, who would also play more minutes at the four in Green’s absence, leading to more rebounding opportunities.
Pelicans @ Rockets preview
NOP -5, total: 222
This game is tough to break down right now with the Pelicans news still up in the air. Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram and Lonzo Ball are all once again questionable to play in this game. It is such a good matchup for Williamson if he is active, facing a Rockets team that is coughing up a league-worst 23.6 transition points per game on the season, while opponents are getting out on the break 18.4% of the time against them. That bodes well for Williamson, who is shooting an insane 70.3% in transition on the year. Meanwhile, Nickeil Alexander-Walker has been very strong as of late and whenever he starts, he produces. In 10 starts this season, Alexander-Walker is averaging 19.0 points, 5.4 rebounds and 15.2 shot attempts per game. If Ball can’t return to the lineup, I’d still be perfectly fine paying $7,000 for Alexander-Walker, especially in this matchup. And if New Orleans remains extremely shorthanded, Eric Bledsoe should continue to see plenty of usage, while everyone should see a bump in rebounding potential with Josh Hart now sidelined. Steven Adams would make sense as a viable mid-range center option, especially if Williamson sits out. The Rockets can be had on the interior, as they are coughing up the third-most post-up points per game on the year (6.4).
For the Rockets, John Wall will miss his third straight game with a knee issue, opening up usage for Kevin Porter, Sterling Brown and more. Porter has taken plenty of shots as of late, while he’s also done a nice job of facilitating and initiating the offense. With Wall off the floor over the last two weeks, Porter is sporting a 25.6% usage rate, while averaging 1.0 fantasy points per minute. Avery Bradley is also coming off a game where he played 28 minutes with his new team and could be worth a look as another value option at $3,700 on DK. Of course, most of the production should continue to go through Christian Wood and this is a good matchup for him. The Pelicans are allowing the second-most points per game to the roll man out of the pick and roll (9.5), while Wood’s 5.6 points per game as the roll man are good for third-most in all of basketball.
Magic @ Nuggets preview
DEN -16.5, total: 214
Magic games have become my least favorite games on any given slate. Orlando was without Michael Carter-Williams, Khem Birch and Otto Porter Friday and all three players are once again listed as questionable, as well as Mo Bamba, who is now also dealing with a non-COVID-19 illness. R.J. Hampton played 31 minutes last game and it would make sense for the Magic to continue to see what they have in the rookie guard. We have also seen Wendell Carter take on a much larger role since joining the Magic and has now logged 30-plus minutes in consecutive games. Meanwhile, Chuma Okeke hasn’t shown the highest ceiling in the world but he has provided a nice floor in both minutes and fantasy points since the Magic traded away half their team at the deadline.
You can obviously play Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray in this spot. Just understand that they could only play three quarters, while this game will be played at a pretty slow pace. Jokic hasn’t been incredible as of late but we know what he’s capable of on any given night, while the same can be said for Murray. Meanwhile, Aaron Gordon is coming off his best game since going to Denver, scoring 40.5 fantasy points in 39 minutes. He isn’t going to handle the ball as much as he did in Orlando but playing alongside Jokic and Murray will give him easy looks on offense and I think he’s a solid option tonight against his former team.
