Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Once again, we have another NBA DFS slate filled with injury news. Saturday presents a strong eight-game slate with some key players on the verge of returning, while others could be on their way to the bench for a game or two due to an injury.
Let’s break it all down and see what stands out.
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Mavericks @ Wizards preview
DAL -6, total: 227
Once again, Bradley Beal is questionable to play in this game, as he continues to nurse his hip injury. If Beal sits, it is impossible to not love Russell Westbrook, who has now recorded a triple-double in seven of his last 10 games. And with Beal out over the last three contests, Westbrook is averaging 103.3 touches per game, easily the most in the NBA during that stretch. In that same span, he is also averaging a gaudy 10.4 minutes of possession per game, as well as a 31.3% usage rate. Meanwhile, Westbrook has also been dominating the glass, averaging 15.4 rebounds per game over his last five outings. And if you look at the last 10 games, his 17.5 rebounding chances per game are good enough for the 10th-most in the league. Outside of Westbrook, however, the rest of Washington isn’t a lock. Raul Neto returned to the lineup on Thursday and logged 23 minutes, while Jerome Robinson, who has been starting in Beal’s absence, played just nine minutes. Rui Hachimura is locked into huge minutes right now, but I don’t love the $7,000 price tag on DraftKings, especially if Beal is active.
Dallas is coming off the front end of a back-to-back so keep an eye on the status of both Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis. This is a nice pace-up spot for the Mavericks, facing a Wizards team that leads the league in pace on the year. A $10,600 price tag on Doncic is intriguing, especially in this spot. Washington is coughing up the fifth-most points per game off isolation this season (7.3), while Doncic’s 5.0 isolation points per game are good for the third-most in the league right now. The Wizards are also allowing the second-highest field goal percentage (42.3%) and third-most points per possession (1.10) to opposing spot-up shooters, while Kristaps Porzingis is averaging a healthy 5.1 spot-up points per game, while sporting a 24% frequency rate off the play type. That could also bode well for Tim Hardaway (5.3 spot-up points per game) but his minutes are tough to trust, as he’s reached the 30-minute mark just once over his last seven games.
Timberwolves @ 76ers preview
PHI -12, total: 226.5
This game is fairly easy for me. Joel Embiid, who has missed the last 10 games with a knee injury, is questionable and could return here. If he does, he’ll most likely be limited, making him a very risky play. It wouldn’t completely take me off Ben Simmons and Tobias Harris, who underwhelmed last game due to fouls, poor shooting and blowout. Harris picked up three early fouls and played just eight first half minutes. This is a very good spot for both players, however, facing a bad Minnesota defense that is coughing up 22.9 transition points per game on the year, good for the second-most in the league. They are also surrendering the third-worst field goal percentage off the play type (57.1%). Meanwhile, Simmons is averaging 4.7 transition points per game on the year (11th-most), while Harris is right behind him at 4.4 per game. Simmons is also sporting a 28.2% frequency rate off the play type, good for the seventh-highest in basketball. Embiid’s return will take plenty of usage away from these players but this is a spot where you can chase the upside, especially if his minutes are limited.
If Embiid is active, I really don’t love anyone from Minnesota. But if he sits again, Karl-Anthony Towns is once again firmly in play at $10,000 on DraftKings. He’s scored at least 53 fantasy points in each of his last five games and six of his last seven, while the matchup would obviously be enhanced if Embiid isn’t in the middle of that defense. I also wouldn’t hate taking a shot on Malik Beasley at just $5,900 on DK, who has plenty of upside at that price tag, especially if the minutes climb back up to that 36-38 range.
Knicks @ Pistons preview
NYK -1, total: 202
This game is pretty gross and while I don’t love just removing a game from consideration, this might be one of those situations. For starters, there isn’t a single point guard from this game that I am excited to play. New York is using multiple point guards, while Detroit is also using Dennis Smith, Saben Lee and Cory Joseph. In fact, if choosing one point guard from this game, it might actually be Joseph, who has scored 35.5, 29.0 and 32.5 fantasy points over his last three games. I supposed Derrick Rose also has upside at his $4,700 price tag on DK, especially since he’s sporting a solid 25% usage rate over the last two weeks of play. Meanwhile, we know what we’re going to get from Julius Randle, who is 10th in rebounding and 12th in touches per game on the season. There is certainly nothing wrong with this matchup either, as the Pistons rank 26th against rebounders, 24th against skilled centers, 23rd against point forwards and 23rd against crafty finishers, per our advanced DvP tool. Finally, just when you thought we could trust Nerlens Noel with Mitchell Robinson out, New York has now given veteran Taj Gibson 24 and 28 minutes over the last two games. He’s sporting a solid 26% rebounding rate with Robinson off the floor this season and could be worth a look as a value GPP option.
For the Pistons, Mason Plumlee has been providing very strong peripherals over the last few weeks but his minutes haven’t been anything to write home about. He’s played 30 minutes or more in just two of his last 10 games, but he is also so involved on the boards and as a playmaker that he can still have a great game in 28 minutes. Of course, this game is going to have a slow pace and New York remains a very solid defensive unit, so it definitely isn’t the most exciting spot in the world. Meanwhile, now rested, I don’t hate Hamidou Diallo at $4,900, who has been very productive whenever he’s gotten the minutes this season.
Cavaliers @ Heat preview
MIA -11.5, total: 207.5
Cleveland isn’t really on my radar here. Both Larry Nance and Jarrett Allen remain out, while Kevin Love will likely play 20-25 minutes, assuming he is active. Meanwhile, Collin Sexton is safe for huge minutes and plenty of shot attempts every single game but if choosing a point guard from this team, I think I’d prefer to take the $1,000 savings and go to Darius Garland.
Victor Oladipo made his Heat debut the other night, scoring six points to go with three rebounds and five assists in 23 minutes off the bench. At $7,300 on DK, his price is a bit too high given his new role on his new team. My favorite play from Miami is once again Bam Adebayo, who has such a safe floor, sporting a healthy 24.7% usage rate, 28% rebounding rate and 16% assist rate on the season. He gets a strong matchup against a depleted Cavaliers frontcourt that is already surrendering the fifth-most points per possession to opposing roll men out of the pick and roll (1.20). That bodes well for Adebayo, who is averaging 4.4 points per game off the play type this season, good for the eighth-most in the league. You also know what you’re going to get from Jimmy Butler, who has been fantastic over the last month or two, while Tyler Herro could be worth a look, though I do worry it is possible that his minutes come back down a bit if Oladipo’s go up.
Pacers @ Spurs preview
SAS -4.5, total: 219.5
Domantas Sabonis played through a quad injury Friday but suffered an ankle sprain during the game and did not return. That puts his status in serious jeopardy for this game, while Malcolm Brogdon was a late scratch with hip soreness. These are obviously Indiana’s two most important players and two players that rank second (97.7) and sixth (88.4) in the league in touches per game this season, so their absences could loom large. If both are ruled out, T.J. McConnell becomes a tremendous play, as he’s sporting a massive 33% assist rate and 17% rebounding rate with both players off the floor this season, while averaging 1.25 fantasy points per minute in the split. He also led the team in touches during their game on Friday with both players out. Of course, Caris LeVert would likely dominate the usage and shot attempts and we know what his upside is when he’s running the show on offense. Myles Turner, meanwhile, gets a massive 6% bump in usage with Sabonis and Brogdon off the floor this season, while his fantasy points per minute climb to 1.21. Sabonis is averaging 19.8 rebounding chances per game this season (5th-most) so if he’s out, Turner, who often underwhelms on the glass, could see a huge boost in that department. Finally, both Justin Holiday and Doug McDermott would both be in play in the $4,000 range on DK.
For the Spurs, I actually really like Keldon Johnson here. He hasn’t been great of late, while the minutes haven’t quite been where we’ve seen them before. However, his price has now dipped below $5,000 and he faces a Pacers team that could be without two of their three best defensive players. Indiana is also coughing up the sixth-most points per game to spot-up shooters this season (29.7), as well as the fourth-highest field goal percentage off the play type (41.7%). Johnson, meanwhile, is averaging 5.1 spot-up points per game on the year, to go along with a massive 42.3% frequency rate off the play type. And while his production has hovered around the 33-35 fantasy-point mark as of late, I still believe there is upside with Dejounte Murray at his price tag, while DeMar DeRozan is perfectly fine at $8,000 on DraftKings.
Magic @ Jazz preview
UTA -15, total: 216.5
This game is pretty gross. The Jazz are 15-point home favorites against the worst team in basketball (as it stands) and there really isn’t any value to be had with Utah. Donovan Mitchell is back in the lineup, but Mike Conley is still priced up to nearly $7,000, which takes him out of consideration for me unless someone rests. And if anyone would rest in this game, it would likely be him. Rudy Gobert’s price is coming back down, and we know the floor he has due to his rebounding totals, but I worry about the ceiling if the Jazz just dominate this game like they should. The same argument can be made for Mitchell, who is almost $9,000 on DK, a price tag that I usually don’t pay regardless of the matchup. If we get word that Conley is going to rest, Joe Ingles and Jordan Clarkson become a lot more interesting, while you can make a better case for paying that price tag for Mitchell.
For Orlando, Michael Carter-Williams and Khem Birch are questionable to play here. MCW sat out last game and we saw Chasson Randle log 35 minutes, scoring a strong 32 fantasy points in the process. If Carter-Williams is out again, you can go back to Randle against a Utah team that is surprisingly allowing the third-most points per game to opposing ball handlers out of the pick and roll this season (21.5). Terrence Ross (ankle) is also questionable and if he sits, the Magic become very interesting for fantasy, as RJ Hampton would certainly be worth a look at $3,300, while Otto Porter would likely get to 25-27 minutes. I also think Wendell Carter is interesting, as he’s sporting a 38% rebounding rate since joining the Magic, averaging 13.3 points, 8.7 rebounds, 1.7 assists and 1.3 blocks per game during that stretch.
Thunder @ Trail Blazers preview
POR -11.5, total: 227
Portland is on the second end of a back-to-back, so keep an eye on pregame reports to make sure no one is sitting this game out, especially in a game they can certainly win. CJ McCollum has been fantastic as of late, scoring at least 40 fantasy points in each of his last five outings. Meanwhile, Damian Lillard continues to play at an MVP level and despite the high spread in this game, both remain very much in play, especially at their fair price tags. Oklahoma City is allowing the second-most points per game to opposing ball handlers out of the pick and roll this season (22.1), while also allowing the fourth-worst field goal percentage off the play type (45.0%). Lillard, meanwhile, is averaging 14.2 points per game as the ball handler out of the pick and roll, second to only Luka Doncic this season. This is also a really good matchup for both Enes Kanter and Jusuf Nurkic but with both in the lineup, there is a cap on their minutes, which ultimately caps their ceiling, too.
Theo Maledon is coming off a career-high 33 points Friday and with seemingly everyone out for the Thunder, he should continue to play around 35 minutes and see plenty of usage. At $6,000 on DraftKings, he’s not a bad play, but I’d prefer using him in a lineup where I was stacking this game or looking for someone to run it back with. Moses Brown, meanwhile, is coming off a poor outing but continues to dominate the boards, as he ranks sixth in the league in rebounding chances per game over the last 10 contests (19.7). And over the last two weeks, he is sporting an insane 45% rebounding rate, while averaging 1.11 fantasy points per minute during that stretch. Finally, if Luguentz Dort returns from his concussion, you’d think he’d log a ton of minutes to try and slow down Lillard and McCollum on the other end.
Bucks @ Kings preview
MIL -6.5, total: 239
This game should be fast and feature plenty of scoring, which is exactly what we love for fantasy. Giannis Antetokounmpo is coming off a 47-point showing Friday night and should be viewed as one of the top plays of the slate once again here. Sacramento is coughing up the most points per possession (1.25) and highest field goal percentage (59.4%) in transition this season, while Giannis is averaging a league-leading 8.6 transition points per game. I also think Khris Middleton is a very strong option at $8,000, facing a Kings team that ranks 29th against dimers, 29th against primary ball handlers and 30th against scorers, according to our advanced DVP tool. The same argument can be made for Jrue Holiday, who has been awesome over his last three games.
The matchup isn’t quite as good for the Kings but again, this game features two fast-paced teams and should see a lot of scoring. De'Aaron Fox is coming off a brutal game where he shot 5-of-20 from the field and has now been bad in two straight contests, but his price has dipped below $9,000. I don’t like him as a solo play but if stacking this game, you’d obviously want exposure to Sacramento’s best player. Buddy Hield is also very interesting at $5,800, which is one of the lowest price tags we’ve seen on him in quite some time. Richaun Holmes, meanwhile, has recorded a double-double in seven of his last 10 games and has been the Kings’ best player as of late. With Marvin Bagley sidelined, the minutes and rebounding numbers are very, very secure for Holmes.
