NBA first look: Game-by-game DFS breakdown for April 25

There are seven games on Sunday’s NBA DFS schedule, but with three in the afternoon and four in the evening, our attention (as always) shifts later to the main slate, which includes four interesting games from a DFS perspective.

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Cavaliers @ Wizards preview

WAS -8, total: 225.5

This would have been a terrific spot for Collin Sexton if he weren’t out with a concussion. However, it does open up more opportunities for Darius Garland, who is sporting a 27% usage rate and 20% assist rate with Sexton off the floor this season, while averaging just over a fantasy point per minute in the split. When Sexton missed two games earlier in the month, Garland averaged an awesome 96 touches per game, while also averaging 7.9 minutes of possession per game during that span. I also have no issue getting to a fairly priced Kevin Love at $6,600 on DraftKings, who sees a 3.1% usage bump with Sexton off the floor this season. The Wizards are also allowing the third-worst field goal percentage (41.3%) and third-most points per possession (1.09) to spot-up shooters on the year. Meanwhile, Jarrett Allen’s price tag continues to drop, though his ceiling is a bit capped with Love back and playing around 30 minutes a night. Finally, Matthew Dellavedova could be worth a look at minimum salary, as he’ll play more minutes with Sexton sidelined.

For the Wizards, this is a tremendous spot for Russell Westbrook, who just continues to post huge game after huge game. He’s now recorded a triple-double in nine of his last 10 games and during that 10-game stretch, Westbrook is averaging 18.7 rebounding chances per game, good for the sixth-most in all of basketball. Westbrook continues to do a lot of damage in transition, averaging the third-most points per game off the play type this season (5.8). The Cavaliers, meanwhile, are surrendering the sixth-most transition points per game on the year (20.4), as well as the third-highest frequency rate off the play type (16.9%). Bradley Beal has also been much better as of late, averaging 31.7 points and just under 50 fantasy points per game over his last six outings. 

Bucks @ Hawks preview

MIL -6, total: 228

Milwaukee played Saturday afternoon, making this a back-to-back. However, the starters all played limited minutes in a blowout, so they should be more rested than usual on the second leg of a back-to-back. $10,700 for Giannis Antetokounmpo is still a bit too cheap, who is averaging over 1.63 fantasy points per minute on the season. The Bucks main core of Giannis, Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton are all fairly priced ahead of this matchup, which puts them firmly in play. And if Giannis were to rest or something, you’d know exactly where to go. Lock in Holiday and Middleton, while Bobby Portis would see a significant boost. 

The Hawks remain banged up, as Trae Young will remain out, while Clint Capela is listed as questionable with a back injury. With both Young and Capela sidelined last game, Bogdan Bodanovic led the Hawks with 75 touches and 6.2 minutes of possession, and he’ll continue to play a lot of point guard until Young returns. John Collins, meanwhile, leads the team with a 30.2% usage rate with both Young and Capela off the floor this season, while his rebounding rate jumps all the way up to 30%. He’s already in play with Young out but Capela’s absence is even more important due to his uptick in potential rebounds. And if Capela is ruled out, Onyeka Okongwu would draw another start. He played 28 minutes last game and is sporting a solid 28% rebounding rate with Capela off the floor, while averaging a respectable 0.92 fantasy points per minute. Finally, with De'Andre Hunter and Cam Reddish still sidelined, Kevin Huerter is locked into huge minutes right now.

Pacers @ Magic preview

IND -6, total: 224

Myles Turner is out indefinitely for the Pacers, while Domantas Sabonis is questionable. He missed Saturday’s game, making that three straight absences. With Sabonis second in the league in touches per game, both Malcolm Brogdon and Caris LeVert have had to do more of the heavy lifting as of late. Brogdon is averaging 91.5 touches per game over his last three contests, while sporting a massive 31.3% usage rate with Turner and Sabonis off the floor this season. Both will remain very good players at their elevated priced tags if Sabonis remains out. Meanwhile, we’ve seen Oshae Brissett log three consecutive starts with Indiana so short-handed in the frontcourt. Goga Bitadze has missed the last two games, too, resulting in 38, 42 and 35 minutes from Brissett. During that span, he has been very productive and is averaging right around a whopping 25 rebounding chances per game, an absolutely huge number. Edmond Sumner could also be a value option, as he has also been starting and is just $3,800 on DK. 

For the Magic, Terrence Ross (back) is questionable. He’s missed the last three games, but we’ll see if he can return Sunday. Wendell Carter is also questionable with an ankle injury that kept him out of Orlando’s last game. In that contest, Mo Bamba drew the start and scored 38 fantasy points in 28 minutes. Over the last two weeks with Carter off the floor, Bamba is sporting a massive 40% rebounding rate to go along with a healthy 23.7% usage rate and 1.28 fantasy points per minute. Meanwhile, I think Chuma Okeke offers some security at his fair $5,300 price tag, though the ceiling is questionable. 

Kings @ Warriors preview

GSW -8.5, total: 231.5

Stephen Curry remains red hot. He’s scored 30-plus points in 12 of his last 13 games and has a great chance to do it again Sunday evening, facing a very weak Sacramento defense that sees their defensive rating drop by over seven points with De'Aaron Fox off the floor this season. And according to our advanced DVP tool, the Kings rank 30th against dimers, 30th against primary ball handlers, 29th against scorers, 28th against crafty finishers and 29th against superstars, all Curry’s archetypes. They are also allowing the fourth-most points per possession to opposing shooters off screens (1.07), while Curry unsurprisingly leads the NBA in points per game off screens (4.4). As for the rest of the Warriors, I definitely have interest if you are stacking this game up, but seemingly everyone is priced where they should be. Draymond Green is a tad expensive at $7,500, though the floor is always going to be there with his peripherals. He still leads the team with a 28% assist rate, while his 21% rebounding rate is nothing to scoff at either. I suppose you could also take a shot on Kevon Looney at $3,700, who continues to play strong minutes with James Wiseman sidelined. 

The Kings will remain without Fox, but they are expected to get back Richaun Holmes, who has missed the last five games with a hamstring injury. We’ll see how many minutes he gets but if we get word he won’t be limited, Holmes is an intriguing GPP play, as he sports a 35% rebounding rate with both Fox and Marvin Bagley off the floor, while averaging 1.25 fantasy points per minute. This is a strong matchup, too, facing a Golden State team that allows a league-leading 7.5 putback points per game this season. Tyrese Haliburton also has plenty of upside at $6,200 with Fox sidelined, while sporting a 21% assist rate with him off the court this season. Meanwhile, Harrison Barnes and Buddy Hield should continue to log huge minutes but Barnes at nearly $8,000 is a bit high, especially with Holmes expected back. I’d rather look to Hield at $7,300, who still has a ceiling at that price.